Could The Timberwolves Win The KG Trade?

Some time ago I listed the things that would have to happen for the Timberwolves to win the KG trade. http://hoopramblings.blogspot.com/2007/08/pro-timberwolves-take-on-garnett-trade.html

Let's go through and see how it is going.

Well, Garnett is hurt (not his back, but his abs), and Jefferson has picked up his play to the point where he is averaging 21 and 12. His 2.4 steals+blocks number isn't great, but it is far better than his career number. Al still struggled as a passer and his 1.3 assists to 2.0 turnovers a game is poor -- as a passer he is basically a slight upgrade on Drew Gooden (1.0 to 1.85).

Ryan Gomes and Craig Smith have been playing well of late.

Unfortunately for the Wolves, it appears that they will win 18-22 games. This probably isn't enough to cause Glen Taylor to fire Kevin McHale or Randy Wittman. Thus, the team will continue to suck in the foreseeable future.

The only hope for Wittman/McHale firings is the embarrassing attendance at Target Center. Stated attendance last night -- 10,019. Real? I would guess (from TV) 7,500. There were 11,000 people who went to St. Paul last night to see Matchbox 20 and Alanis Morisette sing songs from 10+ years ago.

The 2008 draft class looked great before the top picks actually had to take to the court and play college games. But now, except for perhaps Michael Beasley, there is no one in the draft who looks like an impact player for 2008-09.

But ultimately what will prevent the Wolves from becoming big winners in this trade is the Wolves' inability to evaluate personnel and make reasonable business decisions.

-- The Wolves have both Craig Smith and Ryan Gomes. Both are free agents. You don't need both on your team making $5-6MM each every year. So you have to decide whom to trade and get someone at the trading deadline who will help you in some manner, even if it is salary cap relief (maybe Memphis would give us Kwame Brown?). Who will the Wolves keep and who will they move? Best guess -- they keep neither and allow them to go for nothing. (You think Ryan Gomes doesn't have value? Compare his stats with Luke Walton's and Tayshaun Prince's ).

-- The Wolves will lose Gerald Green. Rather than paying $2MM to keep him for another year, he is gone at the end of the year. So, a guy with upside potential (has scored 33 points in an NBA game) is lost for nothing.

-- The Wolves are playing top 10 draft pick Corey Brewer less than they play Antoine Walker. Um, OK. That just about says it all about how well the team evaluates and develops talent.

So, in 4 years KG may be hurt and struggling and Al might be in his prime. But the way to bet is still not in favor of the Timberwolves. History teaches us, Big Al, that they will do nothing to put a decent team around you....

HM