Vetting

Does Isiah Thomas Deserve to Die?

When I review this story about what appears to be Isiah's suicide attempt, I cannot believe the tenor of the comments I see. Summary -- he is a scumbag, good riddance. Even the defenses of Thomas are, to put it mildly, weak: "Look, he sucked the big one and ruined the Knicks, and he is a terrible person and he sexually harassed that woman, but, um........yeah, I guess he doesn't deserve to die."

Now, people all have strengths and weaknesses as people. Sometimes you get put into a situation where you have no chance to succeed because you just lack any significant degree of skill in that area. You can criticize that person for not being self-aware enough to realize that they should quit and do something else, but I always compare it to the time I showed up for a law firm doubles tennis tournament.

I am not very good at tennis, but I was a good athlete. Every round my team won and won and won, but I knew that I wasn't qualified to win the tourney. Final round -- we got drilled 6-0.

So what should I have done? Quit early? Refuse to accept the wins? Look, if Isiah was getting paid and getting promoted, was he supposed to say, "Sorry, you know I am incompetent, right?"

Even in his suicide attempt, Zeke found a way to mess up -- having his people advise others that the person in danger was not himself, but his 17 year old daughter.

Pride goeth before the fall? I guess not.

HM

Norm Coleman -- The Ted Stevens of Minnesota?

http://www.thenation.com/special/deepmarine.pdf

Excuse the scanning job, and start reading at page 10.

If this Verified Complaint is true, Coleman is basically Ted Stevens, Part II.

Will the Minnesota media report on this in time to make any difference in the Franken/Coleman race? My guess is no. Remember, Minnesota media members were never able to uncover that U.S. Senator Larry Craig was arrested in an airport bathroom and pled guilty. The info came from a D.C. paper.

This Complaint helps explain Norm Coleman's bizarre answer when he was asked weeks ago about free suits from Neiman Marcus and said, "I don't think it is right that family members be brought into this" when no one had ever mentioned his wife in the questioning. NOW we see that old Normie, like a poor deposition witness, was thinking one step too far ahead and revealing way too much.

HM

Joe The Plumber -- No Show

Out getting his country record deal? http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/30/12622/288/1012/646819

Funny

Top 50 Posters

Good fodder for arguments.

Quite a few up high on the list that I do not recall: http://www.asylum.com/2008/02/05/the-50-most-memorable-bedroom-pin-ups-ever/

Bill O'Reilly's Electoral Map (I Am Not Kidding)

GOP Maven: "Finally, an accurate map!"

HM -- "Can you identify 10 obvious errors or logical fallacies in this map?

GOP Maven: "I'll give you one, why isn't Illinois a toss-up?"

Doing the state/federal math

Every NATIONAL poll I see has McCain getting closer (still 3-6 points behind, but closer) while every key state poll I see has him either doing nothing or falling further behind.

What I initially thought was that he is pulling way, way ahead in "red" states and that is the difference. (For example, getting 100% of the vote in Utah and Texas doesn't increased your electoral vote more than getting 51% in each state, but it helps your national polling.)

But then I thought -- that make no sense from a math standpoint. So I did the math.

Obama States Where he is ahead +20% in state-specific polling:
population = 80 million (CACTDCHIILMANY)

Obama States Up 10-19%: population 47MM (DEIAMEMDMINJORRIVTWAWI)

Obama States Up 1-9%: population 65.7MM (COFLMNNVNHNMOHPAVA)

Tie: population 23MM (INMOMTNCND)

MCCain Up 1-9%: population 19.5MM (AZGANEWV)

McCain Up 10-19%: population 28MM (ARKSKYLAMSSCSDTN)

McCain Up 20%+: population 38MM (ALAKIDOKUTWY and TX) (I am not sure Texas shows McCain actually up 20% plus, but I tossed it his way based upon past experience and my recent visit to Texas).


So...............................if you take the Obama states and multiply them by some mid-point percentage in each group and do the same for the McCain states, Obama has about a 15,000,000 population advantage based upon state polling.

In the 2004 election, about 120MM people voted (around 40% of the population). So assume that 150MM people vote this year (about half the population). Obama's vote advantage should be about 7,500,000 votes based upon state polling (15MM population advantage times only the 50% of the population who can and do vote).

Math for raw national vote:

2X + 7,500,000 = 150,000,000 voters
2x = 142,500,000 voters
x = 71,250,000 voters for McCain
Obama gets 7.5MM more, so 78,750,000 for Obama.

So.................????

Obama 52.5%
McCain 47.5%

Round it down -- 52-48% -- round it up -- 53-47 -- so roughly what we are seeing in recent national polls.

Greg Oden -- Injury Prone

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/2008/10/28/2008-10-28_greg_oden_hurt_as_lakers_beat_trail_blaz.html

Bill Walton and Sam Bowie are iron men compared with this guy.

Good lord.

From what I saw of the Lakers last night -- they are going to start the year trying much harder on defense.

How bad are the Timberwolves? I saw at least 4 guys on the Lakers' bench who would play 25+ minutes for Minnesota. Sadly, one of those is 85 year old Phil Jackson.....


JSH

Meltdowns

http://www.realclearsports.com/lists/top_10_coaches_tirades/

Todd Palin -- U.S. Senator?

Uh, no.

After a past Alaska governor appointed his daughter to an open Senate seat, Alaskans had a ballot initiative in which they decided that the Governor could never fill a position by appointment. Now you need a special election.

Can Ted Stevens withdraw from the ballot? Nope -- Alaska statute requires any changes on the ballot to occur 48 days or more before the election.

In short, Alaskans have two choices: 1) elect a convicted felon who would have to resign and be replaced only after a special election; or 2) vote Dem.

We will see if they are in fact TRUE Republicans up there or just fake Republicans.


HM

Ted Stevens -- Better Look Up Powell v. McCormack

Ted Stevens -- Guilty on all counts.

Can the Alaskans decide to elect convicted criminal Ted Stevens? Yes.

Can Congress prevent him from being sworn in in 2009? No.

Can Congress expel him today from the rest of his remaining term? Yes.

Can Congress expel him right after he gets seated for his 2009-2015 term? Yes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powell_v._McCormack


HM

My Mom Votes In Florida

Before we start, I should probably mention that I love my mom. My mom is extremely intelligent, and the fact that I have been able to succeed in life is, no doubt, in large part due to the intelligence that I get from my mom. She was a very mean and angry parent, but also one who always protected you against unfair treatment by others outside the family. So picture like a tiny little grizzly bear mom cuffing her kids about the head and shoulders. Example story: I am 13, asked her where the envelopes were "In the desk in the other room" looked, found none. I don't see them. "Well they are right there." Don't see them. "Follow me." Go to desk. "lean forward." OK. (shoves my head into a stack of envelopes laid on their side in a hole in the desk). "See those?" Ufff/yes. "Those are envelopes." OK, so that is my mom.

Anyway, my mom was a big George Wallace supporter. Also a big supporter of Ross Perot and a big supporter of any Republican who seemed to have an idea to keep things the way they were in the good old days. Loved Archie Bunker (not the show, but Archie Bunker if he were real). But she generally voted Democrat. Not always. I am pretty sure she voted John Anderson and Ross Perot (once). She voted Jack Kemp for Congress and also Bill Paxon.

But she was a big Wallace supporter for a reason -- she doesn't care for black people. So she is a very unlikely Obama voter. She likes Joe Biden (god knows why), but generally doesn't care for Obama.

So I called her the other day. Talked to Dad -- he voted early for Obama. Asked my dad, "And Mom...........????" Well, I better let you talk to her. [Oh lord.] "So, Mom? Did you vote?" Yes. "And did you vote Obama?"
Yes. I voted for the damned black guy. It was really hard to do it and I swore I never would vote for a black guy....but.... "So why vote for him?" I just couldn't vote for that damned woman. She is just so stupid. What if the other guy [McCain] were to die? How in the hell could we have her as President? I couldn't do that to you and your kids.

So, Grandma Maven's Obama vote???????? Courtesy of Sarah Palin.

HM

Which Wing Should I Join -- Rich Wing or Poor Wing?

Rumor has it, that if Obama wins there will be a huge Civil War in the Republican Party.

Given my current leaning as GOP Maven, that leaves me in a difficult situation -- do I want to be a Rich Wing GOP or a Poor Wing GOP?

Looking at my bank account and my 401K statements, I clearly qualify for only the Poor Wing of the party, but let's pretend that I somehow could be either side.

1) How Do I stand on Social Issues? -- doesn't really matter. Both sides speak the same and stake out the same positions, but the Rich Wing just refuses to ever make any effort toward those positions once it is in power....................hmmmmmmmmm, I could spout the same crap and then do nothing about it?

1 point -- Rich Wing.


2) What Do I Prefer to Drink? -- poor wing is big into beer and whiskey; rich wing prefers wine and martinis.

3/4 point -- Poor Wing -- I like them all, but it would be hard to never have another beer.


3) Country or Classical Music -- easy win, I grew up on country music

2 Points -- Poor Wing


4) How Badly Do I Hate Gays and Black People? -- While you can profess your hate for all gays or all black folk and be a Rich Wing guy, you need to REALLY hate those groups to be a Poor Wing guy. Sadly, as I have gotten older, I have learned that I really don't hate either group. But I could pretend.

1 Point -- Rich Wing


5) Type of Party-Affiliated Women I Could Attract -- the Rich Wing offers us....um, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins and Kay Bailey Hutchinson and Cindy McCain. Whew.
The Poor Wing offers up Bachmann and Palin and Harris. Advantage Poor Wing.

But the Rich Wing offers up the sort of women who REALLY bug me when I attend school and community events (vacant look, sense of entitlement) while the Poor Wing offers up some women who at least SEEM to be kinda steamy (though they can be, well, not thin).

3/4 Point -- Poor Wing (I would shoot for the Palin/Harris type if possible and spend a lot of time out of town).


6) Belief in Education -- This one is not close. Your Rich Wing wants its kids to attend the best schools and learn while the Poor Wing generally believes that home schooling, creationism and/or a GED is the way to salvation.

2 Points - Rich Wing


7) Hypocrisy -- The poor wing gets to do things they actually believe in, although they are forced to vote for people who, well, don't really give a damn about them. The Rich Wing gets to Pretend that they care about issues that they don't care about. But they do get to vote themselves bigger tax cuts.

1/2 point -- Rich Wing.


Winner -- Rich Wing.

Based upon this analysis,
GOP Maven will now be a Rich Wing Republican.


GOPM

Some Straight Talk On The Election

Let me walk away from everything I have written recently and give you my thoughts on what is going on and what it shows:

1) We are still a bitterly divided country -- When you see polls of Obama up 65-29 in New York state and then polls of McCain up double digits in states like Arkansas and Tennessee (states Bill Clinton won twice), you realize that there is very little uniting occurring in most parts of the country. Democrats are Democrats and Republicans are Republicans, generally. Then there are only a few states where it is close.

2) A Couple Huge McCain Blunders Get Little Attention -- George Bush won Iowa. John McCain is hated in Iowa because he is against ethanol subsidies. So piss away that 7 votes (14 swing).

Then McCain goes out to Colorado and actually tells someone that he thinks that the water rights compact between the western states should be renegotiated so Arizona and California get more water. Huh? Another stroke of brilliance. So you take that state and tip it decidedly Obama in the polls -- McCain minus 9 electoral votes (18 point swing).

Just making stupid policy declarations on local issues could cost McCain 16 electoral votes of George Bush's 286.

If you just toss in New Hampshire and New Mexico -- McCain loses.


3) Obama is a polarizing figure -- I think what you saw in the primaries, you are starting to see in the general election polls. States where they love Obama? They REALLY love Obama. States where they don't care much for Obama? They REALLY don't care much for Obama.

Obama does far better chipping away voters in the West and the upper south than Hillary would have ever done (CO, NM, NV, VA, NC) but I have to believe that Hillary would have done a better job sealing the deal in OH, MO, and FL.

4) The Palin Pick Is Helping McCain In National Polls But Killing McCain In The Electoral College

Palin has really tossed out the red meat to the base, so instead of McCain winning by 15 in Oklahoma, he is winning by 30. But in the battlegrounds where the electoral college race will be decided, she is killing him with moderates. MN, WI, IA -- all hate her. PA -- I cannot imagine anyone in western PA liking her. Northern Virginia -- populated with a ton of smart-ass folks who have gone to Georgetown, Duke, UVA, etc. -- Obama is winning early voting 66-33%. If you think she doesn't have anything to do with that, let me give you an exchange between me and a law school classmate: Me -- "Greta Van Sustern says that all women need to vote for Sarah Palin." LSC -- "There are a lot of things I would like to do to that idiot Sarah Palin, but vote for her is not one."

5) I think Election Night Will be 51-49% Obama, but he will win CO, VA, and NC and Get Around 300 Electoral Votes, for a surprisingly narrow win.

Talking to my dad in Florida, he says that the McCain campaign in Florida is telling seniors, "He will take all of your money and give it to black people." 80% of the people in his development are voting McCain because, well, they want to keep their money and not have it stolen and given to black people.

So chalk up Florida for McCain. With all of the money Obama has spent in Ohio, he still cannot get those folks to vote for him. Give McCain Ohio, Give McCain Missouri just on the premise that if you can't win frigging Ohio, how can you win the redder state of Missouri? Same with Indiana. Same with North Dakota and Montana.

6) We have always wondered, "What if black people actually came out and voted in decent numbers?" I think we will find out this year. I think Virginia's combo of the black voter and the anti-Palin voter wins Obama VA. I think that NC goes Obama due to the college/western/black combo. Georgia is just a little too red, but don't be surprised to see 49-47-4 McCain, Obama, Barr. I think a little of that 65-29 NY vote is also minority voters voting a lot more. Same in Michigan where McCain learned early on the uphill struggle he was facing in a state Bush only lost 51-48% (so McCain withdrew).

So there ya go.

HM

Heading to Chicago

I am off to the home town of Bill Ayers to do some legal work and, well, hopefully meet Friday after work with some EXTREMELY seedy Obama supporters to see how they could possibly live in a state polling at 62-31 Obama and a metro area just flush with anti-American terrorists and their sympathizers.

My hope is twofold:

1) Opposition research -- gain a better understanding of these people's way of thinking (one of them being Hispanic........I think.....though I have never seen him play baseball or box.......but I know he sometimes gets prescriptions filled in Spanish, so I assume he is somehow "miscellaneous" on the census form).

2) To not allow them to turn me back into the commie-loving HM that I was up until my recent GOP conversion.

Wish me luck.


GOPM

McCain Garners Key Foreign Endorsement

John-Mentum is building.....

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081022/ap_on_el_pr/al_qaida_us_election_2

Appetite For Mediocrity -- New Guns and Roses Song

Not great, not horrible. I am not sure it was worth the 9 years it took to make. Couldn't you have ripped this out in about 3 hours?

Youth Vote For Obama? I Think Not!

http://www.nick.com/shows/specials/kpp_07/

Obama barely squeaks by with Nick viewers in an on-line poll 51-49%. You can say all you want about polls, polls, polls, but the liberal elite media gives short shrift to this poll.

If young people only support Obama 51-49%, there is absolutely no way he wins.

Side note -- saw where Obama stopped to watch his kid play soccer. Soccer, yeah, real American game there. Why not just school them in cricket or team handball Barry. Are girls not allowed to participate in Greco-Roman wrestling?

So there.

McCain/Palin 08


GOPM

The Moment of Truth

There are times when people tell you things about yourself that just really cut you to the quick. And you realize that the best thing to do is to try to change your ways.

In light of my recent conversion to "all-GOP, all the time", I present to you a recent e-mail sent to me by an apparently-angry man, noting what a bad person I am:

Despite you’re proclaimed change of political heart, I assert the following.

You are Un-American.

You live in MN, which will likely go to Obama. Ergo, no one in your state is a “real American” or a patriot or a maverick.

You are stupid.

John McCain stated that when he hears Obama’s promises/plans, all he can do is laugh. Your support for Obama is clearly based on the fact that YOU cannot see that Obama is so far off the mark that it’s laughable. Dumbass.

You support socialism.

Don’t you see that Obama’s tax plan to re-distribute wealth is a return to principles that the rest of the world rejected with the fall of communism. Pinko Commie.

[name deleted by me]
True American

"Hurtful" words? Nay, I say HELPful words in my conversion away from the false and into the true.

GOPM

Sarah Palin -- Super Well Dressed

As I noted last entry, she is hot. But some people envy her clothing.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14805.html

Why do the media elite have so much hate toward this woman? She is a simple down-to-earth person who is just like every woman in the U.S. She travels with her kids, she wears nice clothes, she gets her expenses reimbursed. She wants her kids to look good. Big deal.

I still love her -- and I doubt the bikini from my last entry cost that much....

Palin -- Super Hot

Have you noticed how super hot Sarah Palin is? I have.

So we have a pretty clear VP choice here -- Hair Plugs McPhony or Stiffler's Mom.

Palin -- hot. Obama -- mostly black.

You choose.


GOPM

Joe Biden -- Obama Sucks and Everyone Will Take Advantage of Him

Biden said as much at a secret Dem meeting the other day. Biden is a complete socialist-ic asshole and I hate him, but in this regard he is completely 100% correct.

Summary -- Biden: socialist-ic, ignorant, hate him, but currently 100% correct.

Just hand the country over to the Sudan why don't we?

GOPM

Obama to Visit Hawaii -- Hates Continental U.S.

In what can only be taken as a blatant and obvious slam on the "lower 48" and the great state of Alaska (cementing his sexist ways first uncovered in his hate-filled Hillary Clinton campaign), Barack Hussein Obama stated that he is leaving the true U.S. to visit his alleged "home" state of Hawaii.

Terrorist sympathizer Obama hates America. Or is he just returning to Hawaii in a last-ditch effort to meet with Hawaii officials to fix up his fraudulent "birth certificate"?

Only time will tell.


GOPM (The GOP Maven)

End of My Worries

I have decided that I am no longer going to worry about this election. I have been all-consumed by the whole thing and it is ruining my mental and emotional well-being. I tried to buy McCain To Win shares on Intrade early morning but they are an out-of country market and won't take credit cards.

I have lost my mind.

So here is what I am going to do:

1) It is basketball season -- I am going to focus on basketball as much as possible.
2) I am going to post random pro-McCain or anti-Obama messages.
3) I am going to try to limit my MSNBC watching to EITHER Keith Olbermann or Rachel Maddow.
4) I will review dailykos.com no more than 2 times per 24 hour day.

It is my sincere hope that this will make me a happier and more well-adjusted man. And if Obama loses, then I will be able to point to my new political direction on the Blog as causing the sudden swing in McCain's favor.

I will not promote Michelle Bachmann or Norm Coleman -- that I just cannot do.

Today, I declare myself a free man.

GOPM

Nyet! Russians Refuse to Finance McCain Campaign

As noted here, the McCain Campaign sent a fundraising letter to the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the United Nations. Ordinarily, I would think that this was a sleazy GOP tactic to raise illegal campaign contributions, but with the idiots who run the McCain Campaign, I am sure that they just didn't know what the F they were doing.

The Russians may love their children, too (per Sting) but they showed no love for the McCain Campaign, sending out the following press release:

Постоянное Представительство
Российской Федерации
при
Организации Объединенных
Наций

Phone: (212) 861-4900


Permanent Mission
of the Russian Federation
to the United Nations
136 East 67th Street
New York, NY 10065

Fax: (212) 628-0252
517-7427


STATEMENT

20 October 2008

ON FUNDRAISING LETTER FROM
JOHN MCCAIN ELECTION CAMPAIGN



We have received a letter from Senator John McCain requesting financial contribution to his Presidential campaign.

In this connection we would like to reiterate that Russian officials, the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the United Nations or the Russian Government do not finance political activity in foreign countries.

Brad Childress -- Finding New Ways to Lose

When you look at the Vikings, you say to yourself -- hey, not a terrible club. They have a good front four, two decent linebackers and a mostly-veteran secondary. They have a top 5 running back, a top 5 backup RB, and an OK offensive line. Their receiving corp will never be known as the second coming of Stallworth and Swann, but by current NFL standards, they are OK.

And they are 3 and 4. 2 of those wins coming by virtue of bad officiating. They could easily be 1 and 6.

This is in an NFL where teams that are just solid and not spectacular every week (NY, Tennessee, Buffalo) are a combined 17-1. Let me repeat that -- the Giants, Titans and Bills are 17-1. Does any one of those teams have appreciably more talent than Minnesota? No.

So............why 3-4 (and should be 1-6)?

In the NBA, when a team gets a good new coach, what you see is a sudden simplification of the game -- the coach knows what works and knows what his guys can do along those lines. The game appears to be extremely simple when an NBA team has a GOOD coach and extremely complicated when they do not.

In football in general, here is what you notice when you have a good coach take over a mediocre or bad team:

1) Their special teams play improves dramatically. Good coaches believe that special teams is a key element of the game and they focus hard on improving all aspects of special teams.

2) Their players commit fewer penalties (other than personal fouls). It is EXTREMELY rare that a team with a good coach commits holding penalties or false starts or other similar stupid penalties (illegal contact on a pass). Depending on the coach, he may or may not discourage some personal foul penalties.

3) They find a way to feature their best player(s) and allow these guys to absolutely destroy you time and time and time again.

4) They tackle well.

Watch the Vikings play. Their special teams are the worst in the NFL. They regularly commit stupid penalties such as holding on running plays and pass interference on 4th and 1. They find ways NOT to get Adrian Peterson the ball (4th and 1, he is a great runner, let's fake the ball to him and see if we can throw him a pass). And they allowed the Bears to catch a 10 yard pass and run 40 yards for a score.

So, I may not be able to tell whether car is a high performance car from looking at it, but I can tell you that a car that is leaking oil, sputtering and can't get above 40 mph is NOT a high performance car.

Suffice to say, Brad Childress -- not a high performance coach.

Super Bowl Prediction After Week 7.

Giants 13, Titans 12

NFC Title Game -- Giants 42, Arizona 10

AFC Title Game -- Tennessee 17, Buffalo 16 (welcome back Trent Edwards)


HM

Amy Poehler's Sarah Palin Rap

The moose shooting is one of the funniest events ever to occur in the history of man.





When I say "OBAMA" you say "AYERS" -- Obama:Ayers, Obama:Ayers. I built me a bridge; it ain't goin' no wway-errr.


10 out of 10.


HM

Family Guy Mugging

Thoughts From An Austin, Texas Pizza Hut

Being from Minnesota, I don't often get the chance to eat at a pizza buffet with Jalopeno peppers on it. Especially one located at the corner of Martin Luther King Boulevard and Guadalupe.

In any event, stepped off the plane last night into 85 percent humidity. Welcome to Texas. Austin is absolutely tiny compared to Houston or Dallas. I saw the downtown buildings from the airport and they seemed 15 or 20 miles away. Asked rental car woman "how far to downtown?". A little over 6 miles.
Buildings aren't very tall.

Sitting next to two larger women who each outate me in pizza. (Not easy) and then at the end said, "well, we probably need to get some salad.". Not sure why. Not....sure....why....

Saw about 8 Obama commercials last night on TV. They may be national ads (I do not recall the station) but is it possible Obama has so much money he is running ads in Texas?

Tried AM radio -- two different Rush Limbaugh stations and another conservative talk station. 5 radio ads mentioning how a "conservative Republican" is better than a "typical liberal Democrat.". Um, GWB -- 18 percent approval -- conservative Republican.

Dow is cratering again (Pizza Hut has 6 plasma screen TVs -- I kid you not).
Dow off 435.

One lady just came back with some pudding and cookies. Post-salad.

I saw any In-Trade quote of John McCain at 18 cents to win a dollar. If I were home, I might put 1000 dollars on that. I mean, you are getting 5 to 1 to bet that the Democratic Party will blow an election. Isn't this like betting that in 2014 Jay Leno will still be telling Bill Clinton sex jokes?

Anyway, if you are hanging in Austin and reading my Blog, rush over to the Hut in the next 10 minutes. You may see me entering my white Dodge Charger on the way to my hotel.

Love and Jalopenos (the whole place smells like them).


(J)Halopeno Maven (HM).

Head of McCain's Transition Team -- Used to Lobby For.........Saddam Hussein!!

And for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae............

Again, who exactly is in charge of this campaign (see pic)? For 3 weeks you harp and harp and harp on the fact that Barack Obama used to sit on a charitable board with a guy in Bill Ayers who was an alleged criminal (never convicted) when Obama was 8. And the person McCain puts in charge of his entire transition team is.........a guy who stood to make $45MM from lobbying for Saddam Hussein POST-GULF WAR! A guy who has bragged about his bringing about the Iraqi "oil for food" program (which McCain has consistently railed against).

Amazing.

So, tomorrow night's debate -- quick summary:

JM: You love terrorists like Bill Ayers and up until three years ago you sat on boards with them and went to their houses.

BO: Your transition chief lobbied worked for Saddam Hussein and you put him in charge of your entire administration last month.

Does It All Come Down to Colorado?

The recent set of polls is BRUTAL for McCain: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/quinnipiac_co_mi_mn_wi_10812.php

Minnesota +11 Obama
Michigan +16
Wisconsin +17
Colorado +9

Every poll taken in Pennsylvania has Obama up 10+ points there as well.

A set of Rasmussen/Fox News polls show all of the other key states as close (leaning slightly Obama): Ohio, Missouri, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Virginia

If you take JUST the states that Obama has a 10 point lead in, you end up at 264 electoral votes (Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico). So McCain really has to do the following:

1. Abandon Minnesota and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. These are going to be Obama wins. It is unrealistic to think otherwise. Basketball analogy -- McCain is down 15 points with about 3 minutes left in these states. Could Obama turn the ball over 6 times in a row and McCain hit a bunch of 3's? Sure. Is that the best use of McCain's time and money (to stay and hope that happens)? Uh, no.

2. Try to win the states Rasmussen says are close. These are traditional GOP states. I think you send the crazy lady down to the southern states and the southern parts of Ohio and Missouri.

3. Send McCain to Colorado and Nevada. And spend every cent you save in the upper midwest in Colorado.

You can STILL shut out Obama if he can't get the last 5 electoral votes needed to force a tie. So you need to win Nevada (5 votes). Then you just tell Colorado voters that they are the be-all and end-all (like nu-ku-ler weapons) and rely on them to give you the state.

4. Pray -- Even if 1 through 3 work, you are starting to see some odd results out there -- West Virginia (5 votes) has a poll showing Obama +8. Georgia is only +6 McCain in one poll. Mississippi is +6 McCain in one poll. Florida has had something like 6 polls in a row showing Obama slightly ahead (Kerry got absolutely destroyed in Florida in 2004).

Basketball analogy -- you force 6 turnovers and hit 6 straight threes and go up one, and then the worst guy on the other club gets fouled on a loose ball and hits a couple free throws with 2 seconds to go.

5. Win.

You win 274-264 and then start worrying about Palin invoking the 25th Amendment against you the day after you are sworn in.

HM

To My Supporters In the Back -- "Shut the F Up, You Commie Pinkos!!

I am giving a speech later this week -- now I know what to do when people say, "Speak Up!"

And SP's actual reply of "OK, I am doing that." Um, complete non sequitur?

HM

(RICHMOND, VA.) - Protesters at Sarah Palin’s rallies can always expect to be shot down with some choice words from the candidate. But at a rally here today, the confused Alaska governor mistakenly issued a stern rebuke to her own supporters.

The outdoor crowd was so massive that many were unable to hear Palin speak, so about midway through the Alaska governor’s remarks, some of them tried to take matters into their own hands, shouting in unison, “We can’t hear you!” When that didn’t get the candidate’s attention, they tried a new tactic. “Louder!” they shouted.

Palin appeared flustered as she stopped reading from the prepared remarks, which were coming across her teleprompter.

“I would hope at least that those protesters have the courage and the honor of thanking our veterans for giving them the right to protest!” she admonished the confused crowd.

Palin’s husband Todd tried to put an end to the awkward episode by approaching his wife on stage and telling her, “They just can’t hear you back there. That’s it.”

Palin responded, “OK. I’m doing that,” and then continued with her stump speech.

Educating Andre Ware About Shadows

In the Minnesota-Illinois college football game on Saturday, color commentator Andre Ware (who overall is just horrible) stated that Arrelious Benn was NOT calling for a fair catch but, instead, was shading his eyes from the sun.

Two things wrong with this: 1) the sun was behind him; and 2) on camera, Benn turned around to the official who called the penalty and said, "I was shading my eyes" and the official replied, on camera (adding a hand motion), "the sun is behind you."

But this, of course, did not deter Ware, he looked at the replay and noted that Benn's shadow was in front of him on the ground, so (I am paraphrasing Ware here): "When the shadow is in front of you, that shows that the sun is in your eyes."

Oh lord. Andre's University of Houston "education" not serving him very well there. Here you go, Andre: http://art.vinayraikar.com/2007/11/illustrating-shadows-with-inkscape.html

A source of light in FRONT of a person results in a shadow BEHIND the person. The person's body is not a magic mirror that somehow darkens the sunshine and bounces it forward onto the ground. What happens is the body BLOCKS the light and prevents it from reaching the ground behind the person.

Thankfully we do not live in Andre Ware's world because eclipses in his world would involve the SUN COMING BETWEEN THE MOON AND THE EARTH!!!! While this would certainly make an eclipse more interesting, I am not sure that I would like the sun 240,000 miles away versus its standard 93,000,000 mile orbit.

Britney is Back

http://www.webcastr.com/videos/music/britney-spears-womanizer-video.html

One trend that has made a Spears comeback possible? Recording executives no longer expect a female artist to sing.

Listen to recent efforts by Mariah Carey or Jordan Sparks -- then ask yourself, could Britney (who has a very weak voice) sing that song? The answer is almost invariably yes. So now that Brit is back in video shape, there is absolutely no reason to doubt that she can once again be a top 5 act.

And I think we can all agree that she is back in video shape.

North Dakota -- Color Them Blue???

http://www.in-forum.com/articles/index.cfm?section=news&page=news_article_full&id=218215

Hardly seems possible, but heck, if we can get a single poll showing West Virginia as +8 Obama, I guess we can get a single poll showing ND as +2 Obama.

This would be akin to Obama being behind 2 in a Hawaii poll.

McCain Campaign -- Defending Those Who Yell "Kill Him" and "Muslim" and "Traitor"

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/10/1529529.aspx

Maybe Fox News can give the two top aides a "do over" ala Sarah Palin and ask, "What do you think of people who shout 'kill him' at Barack Obama?"

PROPER Answer: "We have very large rallies and the people on stage cannot hear every word that is said and we cannot control everything that the crowd says. We are not even sure that these are actual McCain/Palin supporters. They may be plants."

There. That is your answer. When you incite a riot and someone calls you on it, you say, "Geez, how was I to know?" not "So? I wish they broke even more stuff."


HM

LPGA Players and Would-Be Playwrights Rejoice! Connecticut Strikes Down Civil Unions

http://www.jud.ct.gov/external/supapp/Cases/AROcr/CR289/289CR152.pdf

Undoubtedly one of the longest and densest decisions ever written on this subject. It goes on....and on....and on.....

The gist: Connecticut allowed civil unions for gays. Gays still complained and wanted the right to be married. Connecticut Supreme Court (Khalid El-Amin and Jake Voskuhl possibly involved?) decided that the state constitution and the federal constitution prohibited such discrimination. Gays must have the right to marry in Connecticut.

Now -- as you may have guessed, I do not have a history of being a big gay rights guy. But I do believe that gay couples who want to have commit to all of the legal obligations of marriage should have that right through civil unions. But I think that the folks pushing for true "marriage" walk a tricky line. The more success that they have on the state level, the bigger the push back from religious folk. The bigger the groundswell about gay people messing up "my religion," the more likely it is that the U.S. will pass a constitutional amendment some day stating something like "no state is required to recognize gay marriage or any equivalent." When that amendment passes, you then probably lose the civil union laws as well.

I see the opposite side's argument ("thanks HM for supporting the return of Plessy v. Ferguson") but sometimes you need to be a little practical.

HM

John McCain Vows to Prosecute Barney Frank, Chris Dodd and Barack Obama

I wish that this were something that I made up, but sadly, he actually says it.

THIS is the guy who will reach across the aisle to make sure things get done??? He is going to prosecute two sitting Senators and a many-term Congressman?

It is official -- he has lost his fucking mind.

86 Year Old Betty White -- An American Treasure

Oh, if only the late Allen Ludden could see her now!

FISA Wiretapping

Everyone is stunned by the recent revelation that government employees listened in routinely on calls from military personnel and U.S. aid workers stationed in the Middle East. Why?

The whole point of the Bush-Cheney wiretap program was that you would monitor every single call/message and then decide if there was anything untoward. They call it "data mining" and it is basically the same as saying "we are going door to door searching every house in this city because we think someone is planning to commit a crime."

So yeah, the NSA people liked to listen in on military officers having phone sex with people back home. What did you expect?

There are only two possible reactions to an overbroad search and seizure program that as a matter of course must invade the privacy of innocent people: 1) the goverment can do whatever it wants; or 2) the whole thing is outrageous and unconstitutional.

Since 9/11/01 the Congress has chosen option #1. Let's not pretend now that we are surprised and stunned.

HM

Someone Even More Pessimistic Than I

http://www.247wallst.com/2008/10/djia-19-days-to.html

Ouch.

Oh, and if I forget to say it at some later date -- George W. Bush? Worst President in my lifetime. Jimmy Carter is Lincoln compared to Bush.

He is also clearly the worst President ever to serve 8 years, and he is fast closing in on the worst President to ever serve (Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan, the Harding, Coolidge, Hoover troika all still in the running).

HM

Nightmare Scenario for McCain

See below for the "McCain Wins" Scenarios..........but on to Obama's upside:

1) Obama wins the 264 electoral votes that most people (including realclearpolitics.com) have as a lock for him (all of the Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico).

2) McCain and Palin finally decide to just come right out and call Obama "that black guy" and when that is ineffective, "little black Sambo." They start running ads showing Obama kissing babies and stating, "Black guy? White babies? Is this REALLY appropriate?" This is FINALLY enough to offend the main stream media into covering the disgusting tactics of the pair, and even 30% of GOP voters think it is wrong. Palin, back stage at a campaign rally replies in the direction of an open microphone, "like I care what those N lovers think!"

This strategy ensures McCain victories by 75-25% margins in Alaska, Mississippi, South Carolina, Idaho and Alabama, but hurts him everywhere else.

3) Obama wins Florida, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, West Virginia, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia by over 5 points. He also picks off North and South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana and Georgia. Arkansas and Kentucky are too close to call and 1 month after the election, Obama and McCain just agree to split the two -- Obama picks Tennessee because he liked the one audience question at the 2nd debate.

Obama wins 406-132.

Scenarios for a McCain Victory

1) When we get to November 1, people in the traditionally "red" states say that they just cannot imagine giving a black guy the nod. Black voters and young voters cannot overcome the 85% of of older white voters voting McCain.

McCain, therefore, wins Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida, leaving the whole election up to Nevada and Colorado.


2) Obama's late poll numbers show that he is losing all of the red "battleground" states and he now must win Colorado to win or Nevada to tie. Biden commits some awful gaffe related to how westerners are generally best described as people who mooch off the federal government and it is enough to force a small loss in these two states.

(McCain wins 272-264)

or

2b) Obama forces a tie by winning Nevada, but late returns show McCain somehow wins one electoral vote in Maine.

(McCain wins 270-268).

or

2c) Obama forces a tie and weak-willed Democrats in the house vote with their state's popular vote rather than party line.

(269-269, McCain wins in the house).


Obama slinks home a loser and by January 2011 Sarah Palin is President of a 49-state union (Alaska having been allowed to secede).


HM

Stretching Tips

Most doctors will tell you that as you get toward and above age 40 as a guy that you should make sure that you include stretching is a part of your daily regimen.

I agree.

John McCain "Joking With An Old Veteran Friend Who Joked With Me"

Burned two debates in a row by his stupid decision to sing "Bomb, Bomb Iran," McCain mumbled under his breath that he was just joking with an old veteran friend who joked with me...."

Judge for yourself:




Seems to me that the guy at the campaign event is deadly serious about "sending Iran an airmail message" and McCain spurs him on. McCain isn't in the back room of some VFW bar with two guys late at night after a drinking binge.


Here is something that completely baffles me about McCain on the whole "should we kill Bin Laden in Pakistan" issue:

I would guess that 96% of people in the U.S. believe that if we know where bin Laden is in Pakistan and can kill him, we should. Pakistan be damned. Obama says so; Palin says so (twice); McCain's BROTHER said so the other day. Why in the world does John McCain take the opposite position? What is the political benefit to that?

"My friends, I tell you my friends, I will get bin Laden, my friends."

(Unless of course he is hiding in Pakistan -- then no, we can't touch him there)......

If bin Laden were hiding at the bottom of Niagara Falls, but on the Canadian side, would he be all set?

Palin 2012? Excuse Me -- You Are Serious?

When I read the right-wing blogs, I get a great laugh at all of the ridiculous statements about "I hope McCain loses so we can get Palin in 2012." One guy called her "an all-pro player on a 3-13 team."

Wow.

I always wondered how the rich wing of the party was able to snooker the poor wing so easily. Now I know. They are extremely gullible.

If Obama is elected and Palin runs for President in 2012, she would not make it out of New Hampshire. She is a complete joke. Democrats have this quaint belief that you should leave women candidates alone and not be mean. If Palin challenges the GOP establishment in 2012, she will end up doing sports on some public access TV channel out of Willow. They will KILL her.

Her husband is a secessionist whose political party of choice (Alaska Independence Party) once sought funds from IRAN!!!!!!!!!!!!! Try selling that one to the base. She has a better chance of being indicted than being the GOP nominee in 2012.

HM

Conservatives and HM -- not happy with McCain Plan to Buy Out Mortgages And Adjust Them Down

http://michellemalkin.com/2008/10/07/mccain-wants-to-spend-300-billion-more-to-buy-up-bad-mortgages/#comments

If you look at the first 20+ comments, they all then turn around and say, "But we gotta vote McCain anyway, cuz we can't vote for the black guy."

So I guess that McCain did the right thing politically -- he has scared the shit out of Palin's folks and called Obama a terrorist who will destroy the country, so McCain can basically become a left-wing Democrat on every single issue and still these folks can't vote against him.

But let me address the "merits" of McCain's Proposal.

1) How exactly do you identify what loans to purchase? It appears to me that McCain is saying that people who took out adjustable rate loans that they COULD pay and then had the rates increase or somehow lost the ability to pay qualify for his program..........I think.

Sooooooooo -- if you bought a $200,000 home and got a 4% interest rate in 2004 that adjusted to 8% in 2007, and your house is now worth $150,000 and you can't pay the mortgage, John McCain will buy your house (oops, he has enough houses, start again). The GOVERNMENT will buy your home loan and then write it down to $150,000 and offer you a new 30-year fixed rate mortgage.

1b) If you took out the same loan in 2004 and your house is now still worth $200,000 and you can't pay your bills............you qualify for a fixed rate mortgage but you, of course, do not get a principal reduction because, um, you made a better buying decision, I guess.

1c) If you bought a $400,000 home in 1999 with a 30-year fixed mortgage and it became worth $800,000 in 2006 and due to the economy is now worth $400,000 again.................you get nothing.

So, guy in 1a gets a $50,000 equity infusion (assuming his house some day gets back to $200,000) and guy in 1c gets nothing, despite the fact that he lost $400,000 in equity, 8 times what the guy in 1a lost.


2) OK, so we go with the 1a guy -- he doesn't get a bailout unless he can show he was a good credit risk in 2004. Um, he got a loan in 2004. Someone thought he was a good credit risk. Is it really fair to say, "Well, hey, I looked at it and if everyone knew your house would lose $50,000 of value, you weren't a good credit risk." That was the whole point of the loan!!!! Everyone was lending based upon future increases of home value.

Analogy -- everyone lends NFL owners money because the value of each franchise increases every year. Let's assume for the sake of argument that these loans are made without personal guaranty obligations. Now suppose we learned that football causes cancer in 87% of fans. Franchise values plummet. OK. So given these facts the $100MM line of credit issued to the Saints (for example) was a REALLY bad decision. It should have NEVER been issued. So the Saints should have never got a loan and it is a "bad" loan that McCain would not buy. Um, why? It was a "good" loan if the Saints were worth $800MM instead of $10MM. Right?

This seems an arbitrary distinction to me.

3) What if the guy got the loan and then suffered a job loss or a terrible medical problem. We re-write his loan because he was a good credit risk when he got the initial loan. BUT HE ISN"T NOW!!! He has no job and he owes $100,000 to credit card companies. How does buying his loan and re-writing it "keep him in his house"? Answer -- it doesn't. He maybe stays 9 more months until I can foreclose his ass out of there, but........guy has no money, he ain't paying his mortgage at ANY rate or principal amount.

4) Are these deals transferable? If so, what is to keep (pick name of least favorite rich person) from saying, "Shit. The mortgage on that whole block in southern California just went down $95,000 per house. I am buying every single house and assuming the mortgages. When this baby turns around, I make $1,000,000"?

5) Same control issues as with the lender Bailout (sorry -- "Rescue" per John McCain): if these homes go UP in value, does the Government share in the gain? Right? I made it possible for you to buy a house in a bad economy and it is now worth $85,000 more 3 years later. Do I get any of my money back?
Can you turn around in 3 years and get another "teaser rate" loan and take the whole $85,000 out in cash and buy a sports car?

6) What if the market continues to plummet? So I re-write your loan at $150,000 (down from $200,000) and take it in the shorts. 2 years from now the house is worth $120,000. Um, do I write it down again? Why? Why not? It would seem that if you do it once, why wouldn't you do it twice? I mean, the interest rate the government sets might stay the same, but if you write down the principal once, how can you turn people "out of their house" again?

And, of course:

7) Why are we rewarding people who have lived on the uttermost edge of financial reason while basically saying "fuck you" to people who have purchased reasonable homes and paid down their mortgages (for example, old HM).

So if my neighbor has a $300,000 home that he mortgaged by refinancing up to $372,000 two years ago (when it was worth that much), HE gets a $72,000 principal reduction while I have a $150,000 mortgage payoff and lose the whole $72,000 equity position. Shit, I would have enjoyed the extra $222,000 in cash but I didn't take it out. I guess that was one enormous error since I could have bought 3 real nice sports cars with the $222,000 and only owed $150,000 (basically I got my 3rd car for free).

Allen Iverson's PA home lost $1,000,000 of its value -- are we saying that he gets a government break IF he had an adjustable mortgage and fully mortgaged the house at its highest ever value..............BUT if he kept the mortgage down to half the value of the property he is SOL????

Your ability to get government assistance depends solely on how terrible your bet was that your house would retain its absolute highest-ever value? Even if you and your neighbor make the exact same amount of money and have the exact same ability to pay your mortgages??? Nice.

Summary -- not the best plan I ever heard tossed out there, and one that will require a whole lot of "'Splain-in'".


HM

U.S. Foreclosure Map

Worth a look. What is interesting to me is that not all of the heavy foreclosure areas are big Democratic strongholds. In fact, the worst districts are about 50% GOP and 50% Dem (judged by Congressman of choice).

Vikings Win Despite Horrid Coaching

Reggie Bush -- punt return for a TD. Next time -- punt to him again and he would have scored but for a slip. Time after that -- punt to him AGAIN and he scores a TD AGAIN.

Wow. There was a play in the first half where I stopped the DVR and asked my son, "How many guys within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage for the Saints' D?" Nine. "What CAN'T you do here?" Run the ball.

I then restart the DVR -- run off tackle, minus 2.

Wow.

Better -- I would Say the Strongest Section So Far

Super Bowl Prediction After Week 5

Giants 32 Titans 12


AFC Title Game -- Titans 17, Steelers 15
NFC Title Game -- Giants 9, Washington 7

Bank Officers -- "We May Not Take the Bailout"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/05/wall.street.bailout

Wow.

I guess this is very good news for those who didn't believe that the U.S. government should be helping out these banks (Dow is down almost 700 right now, by the by).

But let me break out the crusty old Black's Law Dictionary and look at the definition of "fiduciary or confidential relation":

Out of such a relation, the law raises a rule that neither party may exert influence or pressure upon the other, take selfish advantage of his trust, or deal with the subject matter of the trust in such a way as to benefit himself or prejudice the other except exercise of the utmost good faith..."

If this report is true, than there are only two potential explanations:

1) the officers don't understand their fiduciary duty; or
2) the whole thing was badly oversold at the beginning/was an outright scam.

HM

Now it gets dirtier and dirtier

When your VP alleges that the other guy is "palling around with terrorists," I guess that this is what you get:

http://www.keatingeconomics.com/

To come:

1) marital infidelity
2) Alaska Independence Party membership
3) troopergate
4) bigamy???
5) preachers who, literally, go on witch hunts
6) crazy preachers of McCain and Palin

Here, again, McCain hurt himself a great deal by picking Palin. Palin's husband belongs to a party whose primary goal is for Alaska to secede from the union. Palin herself sent a videotape to their convention stating "keep up the good work." She had a crazy black preacher also.

But it begins. I still think the "black shadow over white baby" ad is about as bad as it gets, but can "Barack Obama will eat your children" ads be far off? If so, I think they will be returned in kind. It won't be easy to watch.

A Quote Looking For a Source

You make up a review of the debate, shop it around to some of your stooges in the media and then try to get someone to actually say it.

OK -- fine, but at least wait until you get Peggy Noonan to act as your shill BEFORE you send in the ad with the pre-fab quote!

I have an "HM is clearly the greatest blogger in the Upper Midwest" quote that I would like to issue. Any takers, or should I just use "Famous Person"?

My Next Job Interview

Inspired by recent events, I intend to seek a job soon as CEO of a Fortune 500 company. I present to you a preview of my next job interview. Assume in this preview of the future that I am in an office building with two interviewers, one male (EGuy), one female (EF).


EGuy: Hello, Mr. Maven.

HM -- Heya, can I call you Jim?

EGuy: Sure, I guess.

EGuy: So, let me ask you, one of your key job references is a guy who ran Enron -- not exactly a great reference, wouldn't you agree?

HM -- I am not here to talk about the past. I am just here to discuss what I can do for you in the future. It would seem to me that you want to hire someone NEW so you shouldn't keep asking about the past.

EGuy: But he is your best friend. There are pictures of you hugging.

HM -- There ya go again, Past-y-Past-erson. Axe me something different.

EF: "Axe"?

HM -- Yep-pers. Axe away.

EF: OK, so how would you run our corporation?

HM -- same way my reference ran Enron

EGuy: same way?

HM -- OK, 90% the same. I am kinda mavericky like that. I oppose the Enron business plan and strategy 10% of the time.........OK more like 5% recently.

EGuy: Why are you winking at me?
EF: Ooh, are you winking at ME?

HM -- It is folksy. Don't you people understand how much you need someone like me. I am, well, a Maverick. I play by my own rules. I am the only one of the four people you interview today who has absolutely NO idea how to run this corporation. Eat that, liberal media!

(Everyone looks around)

EGuy: Tell us one thing about yourself that you see as a weakness.

HM -- Did you know I am a maverick? Mavericky. Take it on the chin a lot. A lot of people hate me. I really piss people off. In fact, when I am on a team, the people on the team hate me and the people on the opposition hate me. Wild, huh?

EF: So that is your weakness?

HM -- Oh heck and bejeepers no. That is the greatest strength anyone can have. I regularly allow people from competitive businesses to help me run my business. That way, we make sure that the key ideas of my business are the only ones carried out. Maverick-style!

EGuy: And your greatest weakness?

HM -- look, I may not answer these questions the way people generally do in a job interview. So what? I am tired of people setting rules for me. I am a maverick. Mavericky. No filters, baby. Just shooting ya straight -- I am lookin' your way there, little mama.

EF: You won't answer our questions?

HM -- I am tired of you seeing me through your filter, trying to force me to answer questions YOU think are somehow "important" or "relevant" to this job.
I won't do it.
By the way, I went to Duke -- I know more about college basketball than you can possibly imagine. Basketball, baby. Duke is a microcosm of America.

EF: OK. And.........

HM -- black guys, white guys, know all about them, Polish coaches. Know a lot. Lot of stuff.


EGuy: Where do you see this company going in the next, say, 4 years?

HM -- I would say change is a-comin'! So change. That is what I see. Changey-change......a change...a lange....................a ding-dong

EF (sweating, touching her skin): I am interested in the kind of changes would you make. What would they be?

HM -- remember how the last guy ran the company? All of my programs are exactly the same!

EGuy: And what kind of changes would you make?

HM -- Maverick. Yep. Me -- mavericky. Change, she is a comin'. Just like my last job (which I have held for two year, almost).

EGuy: You are just spouting gibberish.

HM -- YOU may want to talk about the past or talk about what you are interested in. Not me, baby. It ain't me. And what, Jim? You going all "According to Jim" on me here? Don't be all "According to Jim" there Jimmy. Jimbo. Slim Jim. Big Jim Blutarski guy, huh? And his dead brother John Blutarski? Ooooh, "According to Jim!" Like that is a great show -- Kimberly Williams Paisley. Yeah, she isn't losing her looks at all.........not. Courtney Sinjin-Smith? Liberal bra-burner? Got a boob job -- a reduction. You support smaller boobs for women, Jimbo? Pro bra-burning? Nice. Real nice. I will say to you, EF, I don't think Jim is correct, you don't need a boob job of ANY kind (wink).

EF: Look, you are kinda sexy in a strange way and I just want to jump your bones. Would you stand slightly to the side so I can ogle your butt while you go through the rest of your interview here?

HM -- Hey, please do. I haven't eaten in a month. (Wink at both)

EGuy: Before we make our decision, anything else you want to say.

HM -- yes, I would like to make a cell phone call and give a "shout out" to my niece's 5th grade class in upstate NY. (Pick up phone, make call, give shout out).

EGuy: What the hell was that?
EF: Ok, your time is up.

HM -- Thanks for having me. (Leave)


EF and EGuy in room together --

EF -- He is hot! Wasn't he GREAT!?!? I would do him in a sec' until he begged for mercy. And interview skills? While he really said absolutely nothing of substance, I thought he would be way, way, worse. I gotta give him the job (pun intended)!"

EGuy: (takes out pistol, shoots himself).

Like...OMG!!! I Actually Agree With Sarah Palin!!

McCain pulled his campaign out of Michigan yesterday to focus on "Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Maine." I think that is a terrible idea. As I have said today, I think Minnesota is a 52-48 or 54-46 loss for McCain. I think Wisconsin is worse, and for Ed Rendell to allow McCain to win Pennsylvania, McCain would have to win 53-47 so that the voter fraud was just too obvious to hide. (Am I saying that the parties in charge of state governments "fix" state election results? Yes I am.)

But McCain, after dusting off the onion he was wearing on his belt (Abe Simpson reference), decided to pull out. And if there is one thing we know about the Palin family in the past 2 years, they don't believe in pulling out:





Um, she read the campaign's decision in the paper and "fired off an e-mail"??? 1) why didn't they seek her sage advice before the decision to cut and run? 2) why would she ever believe that John McCain would get an e-mail? 3) she has a thing or two to learn about the Campaign staff's use of "BLOCK" feature on their e-mails; and 4) when things looked hopeless and there was no chance of a victory in Michigan, why didn't McCain try a "surge"? You know, just throw every single campaign worker he had into the state and go door to door personally talking to every single voter? Oh, that would be a poor use of resources and it would be a better idea just to get out and cut your losses?? Oh, OK.


HM

McCain v. Obama in Minnesota

A poll by SUSA shows McCain with a 1 point lead in Minnesota. Three other polls show Obama up 5 or more points, but the 1 point poll is new and has Democrats outside the state worried.

So what is going on up here on the frozen tundra?

1) Obama will win. He is probably up 5-7 points and will win by 5-7 points. No need to panic.

2) McCain is outspending Obama 20 to 1 in TV ads. He is running the ad where "Obama and his liberal friends" are casting a dark shadow over the white baby in the crib. Um, OK. Since Bill Kristol wants McCain to go MORE negative, I imagine that next we will see an ad with Obama and O.J. Simpson standing over the white baby with a knife.

3) Al Franken is gonna lose. He isn't a good campaigner and people do not like him. So Obama gets no push from having a decent Senate candidate.

4) BUT, Norm Coleman won't get 50% of the vote. Pawlenty has never received 50% of the vote and Norm won't this year either. I would guess we see a 15% defection to Dean Barkley, almost all Dem votes. So Franken loses 42-40-18. But Norm's 42% will be about all McCain gets in Minnesota.

Look at Amy Klobuchar's 2006 Senate race. She is a generally pleasant person whom Minnesotans like. She destroyed Mark Kennedy 57-38. About 52-54% of Minnesotans want to vote Dem. If they don't like the Dem, they go vote third party (Ventura, Tim Penny, Hutchinson, in 2000 Ralph Nader got 5% of the vote and Gore got 49% to win).
It is consistent with the Minnesota passive-aggressive personality -- you can't actually tell someone you hate them, you just secretly sabotage them behind their backs.

This day in 2004, Kerry was up 1 point in Minnesota. http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct03.html He won 51-48. So is Barack Obama a WORSE candidate than John Kerry? I think your answer there is no.


So, settle down.

Some hints on what to do:

1) spend a little money in the state
2) figure out some way to help Franken -- this should be a Dem pickup, but Franken is a bad joke.
3) Come by and see us -- the locals really enjoy being sucked up to.

Palin Lovers

In the interest of fairness, I will provide you with the opinions of those who drink the Sarah Palin Kool-Aid.

http://michellemalkin.com/2008/10/02/sarah-rocks/comment-page-2/#comments

Again, VERY hard to read. I particularly enjoy the comments where people say, "Well, she HAS to say that, it is McCain's position." What kind of Maverick is THAT? SP stated tonight that the way you get things done (as she has in Alaska) is to appoint Democrats and Independents to help run the government. So what do many of her "supporters" say in their comments? Let's review one such supporter's well reasoned opinion:

Go Sara! That was great. She rocked! She might have saved the John McCain campaign.

Can we reverse the ticked [sic]? Is it too late? [sadly, I think this may be an actual question]

I am so sick and tired of McCain saying we have to reach across the isle [sic] that it makes me sick! Reach over and thump them if you must. Otherwise, there is noting [sic]on the other side of the isle [sic] I like!

McCain, I am not interested in working with the a$$ w$$$$s. [sic? this is a tough one, he may be messing up "assholes" by going with "asswholes" or he may be going with asswipes] Those people will destroy this country!

Go Sara!

So if you watched that debate and wonder how anyone could say Palin won, now you know the very clear reasoning -- she said stuff they didn't agree with cuz she had to, though she said it was her idea and she had done it before -- so there ya go........don'tchaknow?

VP Debate -- Some Thoughts

If you "search blog" and look for references to Joe Biden, you won't find many positive comments here. I have always considered Biden unlikeable, frenetic and (more to the point) not particularly bright.
My mom, for whatever reason, likes Joe Biden and always has.

Sarah Palin -- well you know my thoughts there.

So you will be surprised to learn that I think that they both did the best they could on Thursday night. That created a Biden win.

Manager Tom Kelly used to say when the Twins were awful and playing much better teams -- "You play against a guy at golf and he generally shoots 75 and you generally shoot 95, there may be a day where he shoots 86 and you shoot 85, but there won't be many of those."

Palin's only hope of embarrassing herself was to write down basically 12 set speeches on note cards and respond to the actual question very briefly (if at all) and then give one of the speeches (while winking at us old guys in the audience).

She did that all night. So I would say in the Tom Kelly analogy she shot an 85. Not by any means great, and in a professional tournament she wouldn't (and shouldn't) make the cut, but she did the best she could given her extremely limited skills and lack of knowledge of the course.

Unfortunately for her, Biden did not shoot an 86. He was pleasant, made sure he didn't insult her, worked hard to reach amazing agreements (who would have thought that in 2008 the GOP nominee for VP would be pro-gay rights -- equal rights for gays -- and she continues her unbridled support for public education and special education funding, a position abandoned by the GOP in favor of vouchers in..........1992??? 1988??? Also, she passed a windfall profits tax on oil companies in Alaska -- this is a national GOP "absolutely no go" issue -- why someone doesn't advise her of this and tell her to stop promoting it as a great achievement is anyone's guess).

Biden is obviously the more professional and established figure and he made no horrid errors (contrary to his past performances). And let's face it, he was facing AAA pitching. Gwen Ifill did NOTHING as moderator and allowed both candidates to address what ever issues they wanted, irrespective of time frame in the debate or Gwen's actual questions. (Q -- "What is your Achilles' Heel?" A-- I just care too much. A2 -- "I am a maverick.")

Ifill was so overmatched that Palin even basically said, "Look, wench, I am gonna give my canned speeches to the public no matter what you ask and there isn't a damned thing you can do about it. In FACT (sorry... IN FeeeeeeeeeeACT) I will tell everyone in America that I am doing it." Ifill -- OK, go ahead.
Biden, "Can I go back and reply to something said 6 minutes ago?" Ifill -- OK, go ahead.

The key moment in the debate was when Biden rambled his way up to a speech about his upbringing and the death of his wife and child when he was 29. I am unsure how he got there, but here is what we heard about a man who was constantly rejected as a national candidate and who is best known nationally for lying about his grades, IQ and speech quotes:

Joe Biden grew up in eastern Pennsylvania to a middle class family and his dad lost his job and had to move to Delaware, briefly leaving the family behind. When Joe was 29, his wife and daughter died in an accident and his two boys were hospitalized. He thought that they both might die. Overnight he became a single parent.

In a single stretch of 60 seconds, Joe Biden became a hero to the the working class. He became a guy from the blue collar parts of the East who had to move to a different state so his father could get work. A guy who knows the pain of loss and the struggles of being working class.

And that was it. He had won.

In golfing terms, Palin shot an 85, Biden shot a 70. No contest, easy win.

By The Numbers -- NBA Guys Who Play Better Than Their Gross Stats, and Guys Who Play Worse

So what I did was take the top 50 guys in the NBA in Efficiency (admittedly a stat that somewhat favors big men, but still an excellent indicator of production) and then took their Efficiency per 48 minutes and subtracted out their Efficiency number.

Example -- Kareem Abdul Jabbar puts up a 40 Efficiency number and a 48 Eff48 number. He is +8.

What will this tell us? Well, it will tell us that there are some guys who score 20 points a game because they are on the floor all of the time and some guys who score 20 points a game but could score more if necessary. The guys with the bigger number are the better (i.e. more productive) players who don't need a lot of floor time to put up big numbers.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEIR GROSS STATS:
Honorable Mention -- Monta Ellis, Brandon Roy, Lamar Odom, Baron Davis

5th -- Vince Carter +4.99
4th -- Jason Richardson +4.84
3rd -- Caron Butler +4.62
2nd -- Andre Iguodala +4.28
1st -- Joe Johnson +3.43


EVEN BETTER THAN THEIR GROSS STATS WOULD INDICATE:

Honorable Mention -- Al Jefferson, Marcus Camby, Steve Nash

5th -- Tim Duncan +10.15
4th -- Manu Ginobili +10.88 (only non-big on the list)
3rd -- Kevin Garnett +11.53
2nd -- Amare Stoudamire +11.85
1st -- Andrew Bynum +14.56


Comparing Efficiency Rank to Eff48 Rank

Amare -- #2 v. #1 (he is the best per 48 producer in the whole league)
KG -- #9 v. #3 per 48 he is third best
Duncan -- #10 v. #6
Bynum -- #26 v. #2
Ginobili -- #35 v. #20


And the Bad (the per48 ranking is an approximate ranking -- they won't let me sort out the guys who don't play much so I just quickly tried to count them out)

Caron Butler -- #19 drops to #43
Vince Carter -- #28 drops to #55
Andre Iguodala #34 drops to #97
Jason Richardson #41 drops to #96
Joe Johnson -- #42 drops to #133


Lessons? 1) Ginobili is a great, great player. 2) there is a reason you want good big athletic players -- they are much, much more productive per minute than off guards and small forwards.

HM

Some Hoops

The Warriors are trying to figure out what they are going to do about Monta Ellis's moped accident.

Here is a scary two-word note for the Warriors: Larry Johnson. Larry signed an $84MM contract with Charlotte when he was the young Charles Barkley. Then he hurt his back. He was never a 10 ten level player ever again. The injuries that just kill you are not necessarily the career enders. The ones that kill you are the ones that take guys who were great, great players and turn them into OK players.

Comeback stories -- Shaun Livingston? Maybe? Heat, Wolf, Laker?

Michael Dickerson -- I kid you not; the Cavs are thinking about signing the 33 year old who has been out of the league for 6 years due to a terrible sports hernia problem. "He has looked great in workouts." Roy Hobbs anyone?

This is Funny

Little did we know:

http://missalaska.wordpress.com/


Little did we know..............

Sarah Palin Video -- Blowing It

Out of 100? 74 -- pacing is poor and she basically appears to lose interest in the piece at the 80 second mark.

"Alaska Is A Microcosm of America"

New McCain campaign talking point: "she governed Alaska and Alaska is just a microcosm of America."

OK. Alaska is just like the other states in America in......

1) Population ? (47th)

2) Size (1st)

3) Population density (50th)

4) State Sales Tax (state has none, 1 of 5 states to have none)

5) State Income Tax (state has none, 1 of 7 states to have none)

6) state government funding (mostly oil revenues and federal government subsidies....just like most states who have the exact same funding mechanism.)

7) agricultural industry -- basically none. As I sit here, I cannot think of 5 other states that have basically zero ag industry

8) religion -- fewest number of people who say they attend church regularly, those who do attend -- #2 group? Mormons.

9) population makeup -- 70% white, 19% native american, 4.6% black. So, really, just like every other state that has a population of about 20% native American and less than 5% black. Just like Okla-Sota....(if Oklahoma had twice as many Native Americans and merged with Minnesota.)

10) location -- driving distance from Seattle to Fairbanks -- 2,313 miles.

11) Time zone -- the only state located primarily in the time zone one hour west of California's time zone.

12) Transportation -- the federal government subsidizes airline travel in Alaska because if it did not, certain areas are so remote that travel to them would be basically cost prohibitive.

So, yes. Alaska is just a normal old typical average state.

Maureen Dowd -- Kicked Off McCain Planes

Writing this little ditty got Ms. Dowd dumped at a Pittsburgh airport hotel while all the other journalists who weren't so mean to wittle ode Sawah got to fly to the next stop.

Nothing says, "Straight Talk" like trying to intimidate and silence your critics in the press.

McCain basically freaked out at the Des Moines register meeting the other day. I guess when he hears GOP strategists saying "get tough" he thinks it means with 57 year old women writers and people living in Des Moines. John -- I think they mean with Barack Obama.....

Twin-ners? No. Tw-Losers

Congrats to K and his Sox. They proved to be the slightly better of two very mediocre clubs.

Ken Griffey throws a ball 200 feet on two bounces to get a below-average speed runner -- "great" play???? Great play??? The ball barely cleared the mound. Cuddyer is coming off a broken foot suffered two months ago. That was a sub-par throw that barely nipped a crippled base runner.

But the Twins were worse.