Thursday, April 14, 2011

2010-11 Timberwolves Sorted By John Hollinger's "PER" Stat (includes offensive rating, defensive rating and Win Shares Per 48)

Now, I am not saying that the "Advanced" statistics on basketball-reference.com are the be-all and end-all of judging a basketball player, but let's just say this: they are a very rough indicator of performance, becuae the guys you expect to be way, way at the top are generally way, way at the top and then there are 40-50 guys in the next set where you only have 5-6 outliers that make you say "man, those stats are kinda fucked up." In other words, if you went to a bar and saw 100 women, the stat would give you the top 15 hottest, then 40 of the next 45 hottest, then at the way end the bottom 15. You could quibble with rankings 61-85 and say "Hey, that chick you rated a 3 is more like a 5 1/2" but you don't get a "2" up there with a "10" or vice versa. Recognizing the rough evaluation method, here are the Wolves players ranked best to worse by PER. Comments are mine.



Age G MP PER ORtg DRtg WS/48

Kevin Love 22 73 2611 24.3 123 108 0.210


Now, 20th in the league in each category is 21.1 PER, 118 Offensive rating and 102 defensive rating and .175 win shares per 48. Love is a top 20 player except........he isn't a good defender. I would go so far as to say that Love's 108 defensive rating (lower is better) is distorted to the positive by the fact that he plays so many minutes so his rating is going to be close to the rating of his club for the whole game....and it is hard to have a defensive rating much above 111 (MN's rating is 111, 27th of 30 clubs). So Love is a piss poor defender and if he never had to venture to that end of the floor, he would be a top 10 NBA player.



Anthony Randolph 21 23 463 18.5 101 108 0.069


101 offensive rating? For a guy who has scored 20+ a few times for the Wolves? that is not a good rating, that shows he shoots and handles the ball WAY more than he should.



Michael Beasley 22 73 2361 15.5 100 112 0.035

100? For a guy who takes a million shots? Again -- not good. And a WORSE defender than Love!




Luke Ridnour 29 71 2159 15.0 112 113 0.089

Excellent on offense, terrible on defense, generally a more winning player than most of the Wolves.



Anthony Tolliver 25 65 1362 13.3 122 112 0.115

A scrappy hard working player who is very productive offensively. Unfortunately, also not a good defender. At least he will score you more than he gives up! And look at his win share rate -- better than every single Wolf but Love.



Martell Webster 24 46 1094 12.4 111 113 0.077

Well, a very, very bad defender, plus he is no better offensively than Ridnour and well worse than Tolliver.




Darko Milicic 25 69 1686 12.2 91 107 0.007

You aren't going to win much because Darko is playing. Pekovic (see below) contributes 5 times more wins per 48. A 91 offensive rating is just remarkably terrible. If a player has a 91 defensive rating he is the best defensive player in the league many years. His above average defensive rating cannot make up for that 91.



Nikola Pekovic 25 65 887 11.2 100 111 0.035

Pek improved, a lot. I like Pek with decent coaching in coming years. Better offensively than Darko. Compare his ratings with Beasley's. They are almost identical. I would guess Beasley's PER is better due to the fact that Hollinger gives points for "Usage" which is how much you control the ball.



Lazar Hayward 24 42 419 10.8 101 112 0.035

Very mediocre, but not that much worse than Darko, Pek or Beasley who played good minutes.



Sebastian Telfair 25 37 711 10.5 98 114 0.008

I am surprised Bassy's numbers are so much worse than Ridnour's.



Kosta Koufos 21 39 336 10.4 90 109 -0.004

Um, terrible offensively, OK defensively, if he was on the court, he was helping you lose.




Corey Brewer 24 56 1362 10.3 96 110 0.023

Off guard -- 96 offensive rating -- that is the stuff of backup power forwards and centers. And he isn't that great defensively either. Martell Webster is roughly twice as good......and he isn't that good.



Wesley Johnson 23 79 2069 10.2 101 112 0.030

This is why I undertook this analysis in the first place. I heard Wesley's PER number was the same as Kosta Koufos. It isn't. It is worse. Now, on the plus side, Wes is better offensively than Brewer, but worse defensively, and I am certain his USAGE rate is poor (he can't dribble and he is not aggressive with the ball, so how much is he gonna have the ball?).



Maurice Ager 26 4 29 10.1 94 114 -0.015

Blows.


Wayne Ellington 23 62 1181 8.6 100 115 0.010

Played 1,200 minutes and had a 115 defensive rating. The #20 player in the league in offensive rating is about 117. So every time Wayne was on the court the other team all played like the 30th best guy in the league. Denver's team offensive rating was 112.3 -- #1 in the league. When Wayne played every single team was better offensively than the Nuggets. Yikes.



Jonny Flynn 21 53 983 7.1 85 114 -0.064

These are historically horrible numbers. 85 offensive rating for a point guard!?!?!? 85!!! Everyone knew he was a midget and a zone defender coming of of Syracuse, but an 85 offensive rating!?!? 5 worse than Koufos? 11 worse than Brewer? Wow.

This requires its own entry.



Sundiata Gaines 24 8 65 4.9 79 112 -0.102


Blows.

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