Tuesday, October 30, 2012

James Harden - Most Similar: Manu Ginobili

Wow - http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=1975&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=74&height_max=80&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=ws_per_48&c1comp=gt&c1val=.22&c2stat=g&c2comp=gt&c2val=50&c3stat=ws_per_48&c3comp=lt&c3val=.245&c4stat=pts_per_g&c4comp=lt&c4val=20&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws

Magic Johnson?  Terry Porter?  A bunch of Ginobili entries?  James Harden just had a great, great season.

Ginobili is a top 20 player in the NBA.  Has been for many years. Harden is statistically and physically the black version of Ginobili.  Same size, left handed, same game.

Rumored events in Harden trade:

-- "Hi James, we can give you 4 years and $52MM.

-- No.  $60MM

[GM calls Houston and gets deal done with Houston]

-- "James, I am gonna trade you to Houston if you don't take the deal, but I will throw in $1MM for $53MM."

-- I need a week to consider it.

-- "You have one hour."

One hour and one minute passes

-- James, congrats, you are a Houston Rocket.

Can Harden carry a team?  His PER is 21.1.  That is great.  But to truly carry a team you need to be up there around 24+.  He will get more minutes.  Can he add more production?

In the past 11 years, there have only been four off guards to register a PER of 24 or better:

Vince Carter - once
Manu Ginobili - twice
Dwyane Wade - 5 times
Kobe Bryant - 6 times.

In Harden's favor:  his similarity to Ginobili
Against Harden: 
when you think about James Harden, do the names Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade really come to mind?  Is he an explosive guy who can defeat double teams and defenses designed to stop him? 

We shall see.

1 comment:

Al Swearengen said...

I'll be cheering for James Harden.

No, really. I wish him all the best. He's a great guy. Team player. [Insert additional faux superlatives.]