Friday, November 30, 2012

Romney's Internal Polling - Sucky

Look, I think I have said this before, but it bears repeating.  There is a HUGE difference between polling analysis done by someone whose job is to get it right (Nate Silver) and polling analysis done by someone whose jobs are to keep the base enthused and tell his boss how great he is (Romney's guy). 

When 7 straight polls have you losing by 2-4 points in Ohio, you are probably going to lose by 2-4 points in Ohio.  If your own Sunday internal polls shows you winning, guess what?  It is probably wrong.

Romney had himself easily winning Virginia.  He is going to lose Virginia by 4 points.  That is a good solid loss. 

Nate Silver does something for which he has been criticized, but which makes perfect sense.  If a state is a generally Democrat state, he adjusts his prediction +Dem.  If a state is generally a Republican state +Rep.  Florida gains virtually no adjustment any way.  Every campaign you see some ridiculous poll come out a week before the election - "Obama is winning Georgia! (2008)" Or "We show Hawaii as Bush +4 (2004)".   Or in 2008, Obama was gonna win Georgia when there was no white person above 25 in Georgia who would ever vote for him.  Use some effing common sense.

It is just like drafting players - if a guy is a 6'1" shooting guard with attitude problems, he is likely gonna suck.  Sorry.  Don't tell me about his great wing span or how you rebound with your hands not the top of your head.  Great off guards are generally 6'4" or taller.  Think Jordan, Kobe, Wade.  If someone tells you to pick Rashad McCants, do not, or at least discount him down to the second round.  Is it POSSIBLE that a 6'1" off guard can be a star?  Sure.  Is it the way to bet?  No.

General thought - let's take everything as equal and assume that people don't virulently hate Obama or Romney.  You start telling me that Minnesota is a GOP state for the Presidency?  Nope.  Wisconsin?  Come on.  Pennsylvania?  (When will the GOP give up on PA and Michigan?  OK, Reagan won by 15 points nationally and carried them when union workers made $90,000 a year, those days are long gone.)  In a close race, you just are not winning these states.

The broader concern the GOP should have is this - had Romney won NC, FL and VA, he probably still loses.  Obama is winning Ohio by 3, the rest by 5+ and Colorado and Nevada and New Mexico are trending HEAVY toward dark blue.  Where do you look?  Ohio?  Really?  If you can appeal to southern Ohio, how do you then simultaneously not lose northern Virginia by 20 points? 

I think that the map is shifting too hard for the GOP's liking.  Losing the entire West will be possible when they don't have a Mormon running.  You lose the whole West, the whole Midwest, the whole Northeast and split the Atlantic, that doesn't leave you with much.

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