Friday, November 30, 2012

Romney's Internal Polling - Sucky

http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/110597/exclusive-the-polls-made-mitt-romney-think-hed-win#

Look, I think I have said this before, but it bears repeating.  There is a HUGE difference between polling analysis done by someone whose job is to get it right (Nate Silver) and polling analysis done by someone whose jobs are to keep the base enthused and tell his boss how great he is (Romney's guy). 

When 7 straight polls have you losing by 2-4 points in Ohio, you are probably going to lose by 2-4 points in Ohio.  If your own Sunday internal polls shows you winning, guess what?  It is probably wrong.

Romney had himself easily winning Virginia.  He is going to lose Virginia by 4 points.  That is a good solid loss. 

Nate Silver does something for which he has been criticized, but which makes perfect sense.  If a state is a generally Democrat state, he adjusts his prediction +Dem.  If a state is generally a Republican state +Rep.  Florida gains virtually no adjustment any way.  Every campaign you see some ridiculous poll come out a week before the election - "Obama is winning Georgia! (2008)" Or "We show Hawaii as Bush +4 (2004)".   Or in 2008, Obama was gonna win Georgia when there was no white person above 25 in Georgia who would ever vote for him.  Use some effing common sense.

It is just like drafting players - if a guy is a 6'1" shooting guard with attitude problems, he is likely gonna suck.  Sorry.  Don't tell me about his great wing span or how you rebound with your hands not the top of your head.  Great off guards are generally 6'4" or taller.  Think Jordan, Kobe, Wade.  If someone tells you to pick Rashad McCants, do not, or at least discount him down to the second round.  Is it POSSIBLE that a 6'1" off guard can be a star?  Sure.  Is it the way to bet?  No.

General thought - let's take everything as equal and assume that people don't virulently hate Obama or Romney.  You start telling me that Minnesota is a GOP state for the Presidency?  Nope.  Wisconsin?  Come on.  Pennsylvania?  (When will the GOP give up on PA and Michigan?  OK, Reagan won by 15 points nationally and carried them when union workers made $90,000 a year, those days are long gone.)  In a close race, you just are not winning these states.

The broader concern the GOP should have is this - had Romney won NC, FL and VA, he probably still loses.  Obama is winning Ohio by 3, the rest by 5+ and Colorado and Nevada and New Mexico are trending HEAVY toward dark blue.  Where do you look?  Ohio?  Really?  If you can appeal to southern Ohio, how do you then simultaneously not lose northern Virginia by 20 points? 

I think that the map is shifting too hard for the GOP's liking.  Losing the entire West will be possible when they don't have a Mormon running.  You lose the whole West, the whole Midwest, the whole Northeast and split the Atlantic, that doesn't leave you with much.

All Offense - Guys With at Least Two Seasons With Offensive Rating of at least 115 and Defensive rating of 112 or worse


1
1982
1991
TOT
NBA
6 seasons
2
1989
1992
NBA
4
3
1991
1996
TOT
NBA
3
4
2005
2008
TOT
NBA
3
5
1987
1990
NBA
3
6
1987
1990
NBA
3
7
2009
2011
NBA
3
8
1986
1990
NBA
3
9
1992
1997
TOT
NBA
3
10
1984
1987
NBA
2
11
1989
1991
TOT
NBA
2
12
2009
2010
NBA
2
13
1981
1986
NBA
2
14
1990
1991
NBA
2
15
1993
1996
TOT
NBA
2


There really are no surprises on the list, except maybe Vern Fleming who was thought to be a solid defender.  I guess 1990 and 1991 were hard on him.

Chuck Share - info

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck_Share

Chuck Share was the first pick in the 1950 NBA Draft (the first "NBA Draft") so he will always have a place in NBA history, plus he was traded immediately by the Celtics for Bill Sharman, so he has connection to the Celtics dynasty that way, and also because he was a captain of the 1957-58 Hawks, who defeated the Celtics to interrupt their long run of titles.

Share was in the top 10 in the league in PER and WS/48 for three seasons during the middle of his career.  By the 1957-58 finals, however, he was a part time player, averaging under 20 minutes in the finals.

He died this summer at age 85.  RIP, Chuck Share, one of the 10 greatest statistical players never to make an all-star team.  Gone, but no longer forgotten, at least here!

Statistically, The 10 Best NBA Players Never to Have Been Named an All-Star

Remarkably, a large majority of them are guys who have played this century.  You will note that a LOT of them are guys who are power forward/center types who get a lot of rebounds and shoot a high percentage.


1              Cedric Maxwell PF - Cornbread played 11 seasons (1978-88) and had a PER of 16.4 and a Win Shares Per48 of .159, resulting in 78.5 Win Shares for his team. 
1978       1988                       16.4        .159        78.5

2              Don Nelson SF
1963       1976                       16.1        .165        74.6

 
3              Brent Barry  SG
1996       2009                       15.7        .143        70.5

 
4              Tyson Chandler C
2002       2013                       15.9        .154        66.7

 
5              Nene Hilario C
2003       2013                       17.5        .150        52.6

 
6              Kevin Martin SG
2005       2013                       18.7        .150        47.8

 
7              Paul Millsap PF
2007       2013                       18.6        .155        41.9

 
8              Chuck Share - no idea
1952       1959                       18.0        .159        40.9

 
9              Jerome Williams  SF/PF
1997       2005                       15.9        .143        37.9

 
10           Anderson Varejao PF
2005       2013                       15.4        .152        36.8

 
11           Chris Andersen PF
2002       2012                       16.5        .145        25.9

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Judge Has Female Lawyers Watch Edwards Sex tape

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/29/abe-jones-john-edwards_n_2211425.html

A good choice (not watching) followed by a questionable one (why don't you just say "one lawyer on each side, whomever you choose...").

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

ACC v. University of Maryland College Park

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/documents/sports/acc-vs-university-of-maryland-college-park/154/
 
An interesting case.  Maryland will assert that it is excessive liquidated damages and not enforceable because it is a penalty.  Under the old clause, MD would be stuck paying 125% of 17 million = around 22 million.  But they will argue that the new $52MM is an unenforceable penalty and they did not agree to it, one of the reasons being that they thought it was unenforceable and excessive.

One big question will be whether it is "liquidated damages" for a breach of contract at all.  It might just be a cost of being in the league.  You can be in the league, but if you leave then there is an agreed upon payment you must make.   I would argue if I were the ACC that it is not a penalty for breach of contract, it is just an agreed upon cost/payment.

If the penalty is unenforceable, can the ACC even collect ANYTHING??  I mean, the 22 million Maryland agreed to was superseded, and how exactly do you prove “damages” from someone leaving your conference (especially if your conference still exists and just picks up another good team like Louisville)?

Your upside is $52MM and your downside is………..$0.

 

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Trevor Plouffe - Can't Hit a Good fastball, But He is Hitting THAT


Being a Washington Wizards Fan - With Video

http://youtu.be/Swan98Digro

"He is from the D.C. Metro Area.  He will not cry, so I cry for him...."

Awesome.

If Randy Wittman is your coach, he is NOT going to suddenly figure it out. 

Pete Rose and Ric Flair

How much do you think she was costing Rose?

Walking Dead calendar

http://youtu.be/LEqr8Uy9Eig

Monday, November 26, 2012

Angus Jones - Don't Watch My Shitty Show

http://insidetv.ew.com/2012/11/26/two-and-a-half-men-angus-jones-video/

I am glad he realizes that his character is simply made up; that must have been quite a revelation for him.

HM

Pictures for Monday


A super hot chick walking with her gay male best friend/business manager and a reason to attend an Atlanta Hawks game.

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

20 Greatest Playoff Performers in NBA History

1Michael Jordan*19891998CHINBA8 seasons
2Magic Johnson*19841991LALNBA6
3Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*19711984TOTNBA5
4Shaquille O'Neal19952004TOTNBA5
5Larry Bird*19811987BOSNBA4
6Kobe Bryant20012010LALNBA4
7Tim Duncan19992007SASNBA4
8LeBron James20072012TOTNBA4
9Jerry West*19661970LALNBA4
10Wilt Chamberlain*19621967TOTNBA3
11Karl Malone*19921998UTANBA3
12Bill Russell*19621966BOSNBA3
13Dwyane Wade20062012MIANBA3
14Chauncey Billups20052009TOTNBA2
15Kevin Durant20112012OKCNBA2
16Pau Gasol20092010LALNBA2
17Kevin McHale*19861988BOSNBA2
18Dirk Nowitzki20062011DALNBA2
19Hakeem Olajuwon*19861994HOUNBA2
20Isiah Thomas*19881990DETNBA2



You need a playoff PER in excess of 20 and at least 3 playoff Win Shares.  I have stopped the list at having 2 such seasons (coincidentally, there were 20 total players with multiple seasons) You can see as I do these entries that Michael Jordan was, in fact, as great as he was billed to be. 

This list also indicates that Magic and Bird and Kobe all rank far higher as playoff performers vs. regular season performers.

How rare is this accomplishment?  Well, consider Bill Russell had only 3 such seasons despite 11 titles.  Consider all of the other Celtics whom you would expect to be on the list but are not.  Consider that Scottie Pippen with 6 titles is not here.  This is another list where Karl Malone is on the list and Stockton is not, indicating, again, that at least statistically Malone was the better player.

Now, if you really want to see why Jordan was so remarkable, search for number of playoff seasons with a PER of 27 or more and at least 3.5 Win Shares:

1Michael Jordan*19891998CHINBA7
2Shaquille O'Neal20002002LALNBA3
3LeBron James20092012TOTNBA2
4Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*19741974MILNBA1
5Wilt Chamberlain*19641964SFWNBA1
6Tim Duncan20032003SASNBA1
7Kevin Durant20122012OKCNBA1
8Hakeem Olajuwon*19941994HOUNBA1


Jordan has 7 of the 17.  Over 41%.  Remember Hakeem's great 1994 playoffs?  Jordan had 7 of those.

Jordan, Shaq and LeBron are the only 3 players in history with multiple seasons of this sort.  Those three guys account for over 70% of such seasons.

If you want to assert that Jordan, Shaq and LeBron are the 3 greatest players in the history of the game, pull out that chart.  Or better yet, search for a playoff season with PER of 29 or more and at least 4 Win Shares:
 

 

RkPlayerFromToTmLgCount
1Michael Jordan*19891993CHINBA3
2LeBron James20092012TOTNBA2
3Shaquille O'Neal20002000LALNBA1

 

Jack On! Taylor Scores 138 For Grinnell

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/67739/how-do-you-score-138-points

Mitt Romney - Got His Ass Kicked Pretty bad

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdHpla01oWE1jOFZRbnhJZkZpVFNKeVE&f=true&noheader=true&gid=19

So he will lose by over 3% of the vote, about 4,000,000 votes, and he will probably end up rounded down to 47% of the vote - proving Mitt's belief that, indeed, 47% of people are hopeless and will vote for any idiot who promises them stuff.

Of all of the swing states, once all of the votes are counted I predict that Romney will have stayed closer than 4 points in........ only 3 - North Carolina (where he won); Florida (loss by 1%) and Ohio (which will be 2-3%, depending upon whether their Secretary of State buries votes or counts them).

So in 6 of the 9 "close" states, Romney got beat pretty bad.   Had he won Florida and Ohio, he would have reduced Obama's 332 electoral votes by 44, and........still lost 288-250.

The next closest state is Virginia where Romney will end up -4%, but even Virginia switching gives him only a 272-263 loss.  The next closest state will probably be PA, where Obama spent virtually no time or money, so good luck with that one.

It was a bad loss.

Friday, November 16, 2012

The 21 Greatest Player Stretches of Excellence of All-Time

1Michael Jordan*19881996CHINBA5 seasons
2Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*19711973MILNBA3
3Wilt Chamberlain*19621966TOTNBA3
4David Robinson*19941996SASNBA3
5LeBron James20092010CLENBA2
6Chris Paul20082009NOHNBA2
7Kevin Garnett20042004MINNBA1
8Dirk Nowitzki20062006DALNBA1
9Shaquille O'Neal20002000LALNBA1



PER greater than or equal to 28; WS/48 equal to or greater than .27 and total win shares equal to or greater than 15.

21 Seasons - And except for the early part of Wilt's run, I am fortunate enough to have watched basketball during every great stretch. 

LeBron in 2011-12 would have qualified, but he had the lockout shortened season, resulting in only 14.5 Win Shares.

Great Statistical Seasons - Continued

The tiny URL for your query is:
http://bkref.com/tiny/X13QD

Lindsey Lohan 2009

Why she used to be hot.

Michael and Wilt Lead List of 17 best Statistical Players of All-Time

Players With 100 Career Win Shares, PER Over 21, and Win Shares Per 48 Over .200:

Kareem
Wilt
Karl Malone
Michael Jordan
John Stockton
Oscar Robertson
Shaq
David Robinson
Tim Duncan
Charles Barkley
Dirk
Jerry West
Magic
Bird
Bob Pettit
LeBron James
George Mikan


(Notably absent - Hakeem, Garnett and Kobe all do not have a WS/48 above .200).

If you then take these 17 guys and give them points for where they rank in the top 17 for each category of WS, PER and WS/48 (give 17 points for being first, 1 point for being 17th), the 5 best guys are:

Michael Jordan - 47 points
Wilt - 43 points
Kareem and David Robinson (tie) - 38 points
LeBron James - 31 points

Those are your 5 greatest statistical players of all time, with longevity figured in.

Guys who the stats do not support:
Bird - bottom 40% on the list in every category
Magic - everyone always assumes he is a top 5 player; he was not top 5 in any category

Was it Stockton or was it Malone?  Stats say it was Malone.  He played longer and played better.

Guys Who the Stats Favor - David Robinson (4th best overall, great in PER and WS/48)
Shaq, Duncan, Charles - all very close to LeBron for 5th

Special case - George Mikan was an unbelievable player.  #3 and #2 overall in PER and WS/48.  But he played so few years that he ranks 17th on this list in total Win Shares.  So you could ignore longevity and say he was a top 3 overall player, but then you'd have to go through and pick out the best, for example, 7 seasons for everyone and compare them to Mikan's career.  I don't feel like doing that, so we are stuck with giving Mikan a big negative grade for playing so few seasons.  Even with a "1" for longevity, he ends up just behind Shaq at 6, tied with Duncan at #7.

6-10
Shaq
Duncan and Mikan (tie)
Charles
Karl Malone

11-15
Magic
Bob Pettit
Stockton, Oscar, Dirk (3-way tie)

16 and 17
Jerry West
Larry Bird


HM

The 101 Best Win Shares Per 48 Individual NBA Seasons of All-Time

1.Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*.33991971-72MIL
2.Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*.32561970-71MIL
3.Wilt Chamberlain*.32511963-64SFW
4.Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*.32251972-73MIL
5.Michael Jordan*.32111990-91CHI
6.LeBron James.31832008-09CLE
7.Michael Jordan*.31741995-96CHI
8.Michael Jordan*.30771987-88CHI
9.LeBron James.29872009-10CLE
10.LeBron James.29832011-12MIA
11.David Robinson*.29601993-94SAS
12.Chris Paul.29252008-09NOH
13.Michael Jordan*.29201988-89CHI
14.David Robinson*.29031995-96SAS
15.Wilt Chamberlain*.28571961-62PHW
16.Michael Jordan*.28511989-90CHI
17.Wilt Chamberlain*.28511966-67PHI
18.Chris Paul.28402007-08NOH
19.Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*.28351976-77LAL
20.Shaquille O'Neal.28301999-00LAL
21.Michael Jordan*.28291996-97CHI
22.Larry Foust.28231954-55FTW
23.Oscar Robertson*.27851963-64CIN
24.Chris Paul.27852011-12LAC
25.Dirk Nowitzki.27802006-07DAL
26.Dirk Nowitzki.27532005-06DAL
27.Wilt Chamberlain*.27511965-66PHI
28.Michael Jordan*.27431991-92CHI
29.David Robinson*.27271994-95SAS
30.Kevin Garnett.27232003-04MIN
31.Magic Johnson*.27041989-90LAL
32.Michael Jordan*.26981992-93CHI
33.Vern Mikkelsen*.26961951-52MNL
34.Charles Barkley*.26911989-90PHI
35.David Robinson*.26911997-98SAS
36.Chet Walker*.26851971-72CHI
37.George Mikan*.26831951-52MNL
38.Karl Malone*.26761996-97UTA
39.Magic Johnson*.26731988-89LAL
40.Dolph Schayes*.26681953-54SYR
41.Neil Johnston*.26661953-54PHW
42.Kevin Garnett.26502007-08BOS
43.David Robinson*.26421990-91SAS
44.Wilt Chamberlain*.26411962-63SFW
45.George Mikan*.26401952-53MNL
46.Larry Foust.26391955-56FTW
47.Magic Johnson*.26271986-87LAL
48.Amare Stoudemire.26192007-08PHO
49.Tracy McGrady.26172002-03ORL
50.Shaquille O'Neal.26152001-02LAL
51.Paul Arizin*.26141951-52PHW
52.Jerry West*.26111964-65LAL
53.David Robinson*.26071998-99SAS
54.David Robinson*.25961991-92SAS
55.Neil Johnston*.25951956-57PHW
56.Karl Malone*.25911997-98UTA
57.Charles Barkley*.25791990-91PHI
58.Neil Johnston*.25761955-56PHW
59.Chauncey Billups.25742007-08DET
60.Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*.25711977-78LAL
61.Tim Duncan.25692001-02SAS
62.Kenny Sears.25621958-59NYK
63.Jerry West*.25551965-66LAL
64.Wilt Chamberlain*.25511967-68PHI
65.Shaquille O'Neal.25451998-99LAL
66.Chauncey Billups.25432005-06DET
67.Neil Johnston*.25321954-55PHW
68.Charles Barkley*.25311987-88PHI
69.Karl Malone*.25211998-99UTA
70.Ed Macauley*.25211951-52BOS
71.Shaquille O'Neal.25181993-94ORL
72.Ed Macauley*.25151953-54BOS
73.Magic Johnson*.25151990-91LAL
74.Shaquille O'Neal.25012002-03LAL
75.Charles Barkley*.25001988-89PHI
76.Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*.24951973-74MIL
77.Tim Duncan.24872003-04SAS
78.George Mikan*.24871953-54MNL
79.Karl Malone*.24851999-00UTA
80.Dirk Nowitzki.24852002-03DAL
81.Tim Duncan.24832002-03SAS
82.Moses Malone*.24801982-83PHI
83.Dirk Nowitzki.24792004-05DAL
84.Kevin Garnett.24772004-05MIN
85.Michael Jordan*.24711986-87CHI
86.Wilt Chamberlain*.24671972-73LAL
87.Bob Pettit*.24651958-59STL
88.Manu Ginobili.24592006-07SAS
89.David Robinson*.24572000-01SAS
90.Shaquille O'Neal.24532000-01LAL
91.Karl Malone*.24481989-90UTA
92.Tim Duncan.24462004-05SAS
93.Wilt Chamberlain*.24451959-60PHW
94.LeBron James.24422010-11MIA
95.Larry Bird*.24381985-86BOS
96.Larry Bird*.24341986-87BOS
97.Larry Bird*.24301987-88BOS
98.Amare Stoudemire.24272004-05PHO
99.Charles Barkley*.24231992-93PHO
100.Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*.24161975-76LAL
101.Bob McAdoo*.24161974-75BUF








I went to 101 so I could get Bob McAdoo (my childhood hero) on the list.