Tuesday, February 05, 2013

There Are Good Players.....Then There are Durant and LeBron

Last night Ricky Rubio had 15 points, 14 assists and 2 rebounds.  He put up a Game Score of 16.1.

I have no idea how you calculate Game Score, but given Ricky's stats, I assume 16.1 is pretty good. 

On the season, LeBron James has only 4 game scores below 16.1.  Kevin Durant has 3.

Think about that for a second. The production level of 15-14-2 is a bottom 9% game for LeBron and a bottom 6% game for Durant. 

Let's look at some Win Shares numbers - now remember, we are around 50% of the way through the year:

Top 3:

Kevin Durant-OKC
11.9

LeBron James-MIA
10.6

Chris Paul-LAC
7.8


Others You May Know:

James Harden-HOU
7.3

Kobe Bryant-LAL
6.9

Russell Westbrook-OKC
6.5

Deron Williams-BRK
5.2

Assume that no injuries occur and the pace of winning basketball continues.  By year end, Durant will have around 24 win shares, James 21+ (Durant outplaying James in this measure by 12%, despite James putting up another 30+ PER).

Durant is outplaying Kobe by 42%, Westbrook by 45%, more than Doubling Deron Williams.

James Harden has been putting up ridiclous stats most of the year in Houston - by the end of the year he will have 9 win shares less than Durant and 6+ less than James.

At the end of the year, Paul and Harden will have 30 win shares; they will need to throw in Kobe's 14 to reach 44 and just narrowly lose out to Durant and James's combined 45.

At the end of the year, Deron Williams will not have as many win shares as LeBron or Durant has now.

Chris Paul has also been great, but he is always hurt.  If you graded off of Durant as an A+, you would have LeBron as an A or A minus, and then everyone else B minus or worse.  Virtually all of the league would get a D or an F. 

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