Friday, May 31, 2013

LeBron Will Pass Bill Russell and Kobe Bryant On Career "Playoff Win Shares" List If Heat Advance

Since we have seen that the Heat cannot win if LeBron doesn't have a huge game, we can conclude that if the Heat can win one more game against Indiana and play San Antonio in the Finals, LeBron will achieve at least another 0.8 Win Shares and have 28.4 for his career.

Win Shares is a stat that was created to evaluate how much a particular player contributed to a team during a game - both offensively and defensively.

It is not a perfect stat (it should generally be paired with PER, which is a stat that tends to provide a truer value of a player's offensive production), but it does tend to spit out a list of the best players in the NBA every year, with maybe one or two anomalies (Kevin Love in a good year supposedly contributes a lot of wins - not true in my experience, but hey....)

Anyway - LeBron has already passed Larry Bird and all of the other 1980s Celtics for career playoff Win Shares.  He moved past Lakers great Jerry West this year as well.

Here are you career Playoff Win Shares leaders:

10.  Jerry West - 26.7
9.  LeBron - 27.6
8. Bill Russell - 27.8
7. Kobe - 28.3
6. Shaq - 31.1
5. Wilt - 31.5
4. Tim Duncan - 32.2  (Duncan can pass Magic this year!  There is an outside chance that Duncan could even end his career at #1)

3. Magic Johnson - 32.6
2. Kareem - 35.6
1.  Michael Jordan 39.8

As stated above, with just a couple more Heat wins, LeBron almost certainly moves past Russell and probably past Kobe.  Even some ridiculous level of play in a 7 game series against the Pacers and a 7 game finals against the Spurs will probably not move him past Shaq.

On a per-minute basis, LeBron is the second greatest player on the list.  Win Shares Per 48 in the playoffs:

10.  Kobe .157
9.  Russell .178
8.  Shaq .184
7.  Kareem .193
6.  Duncan .195
5.  Wilt .200
4.  Jerry West .203
3.  Magic .208
2.  LeBron .238
1.  Jordan .255

Of all of the players on the list of 10, LeBron is tied for fewest titles (1 with West; Wilt is next with 2) and has the fewest Finals appearances (3, I believe Wilt had at least 4 and Duncan now has 5).


Al Swearengen said...

I'd love to see an update on this blog entry when LeBron James passes Jordan on this list.

HM said...

Perhaps when he has been back playing for Cleveland for 6 years?