Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Wiggins for Love is a No Brainer for Cleveland Over the Next Three Years

LeBron signed a two-year deal with a one-year opt out, but let's ignore that and recognize that the great LeBron James maybe has 3 years left as a legit top 3 player in the league.  He has logged almost 40,000 total regular season and playoff minutes.  He is a huge man.  His game involves a lot of fast breaking and handling the ball out on the court.  He won't be LeBron forever.

Kevin Love had 14.3 Win Shares last year.  Andrew Wiggins is 19 years old.  So, if someone would say, "Wiggins will put up at least 30 Win Shares in his first three years" what would the chances be of them being correct?

Well, looking at guys in their first through third year in the league under the age of 22, what guys have put up 30 or more Win Shares?  http://bkref.com/tiny/c6hRQ

Shaq averaged about 14 Win Shares, Chris Paul a little under 13 and LeBron a little under 12.  That is it.

Will Andrew Wiggins be as effective over the next three years as a young Shaq?  No.  Can we agree that he is not the player that Chris Paul or LeBron James were at a young age?  I think we can.

So let's even say that Wiggins is just a little worse than a young LeBron James and averages 10 WS a year for three years - so he is basically the 4th best player ever at such an age - he STILL would not provide the Cavs the production over the next 3 years that they are likely to get from Kevin Love (who has had Win Share seasons of 10-11-14 already as an NBA player, 14 coming last year).

So what exactly is the hold up here?  I think, sadly, that the answer is that the Wolves' basketball operation is held in such low esteem in the league that no one wants to trade with the Wolves unless it is a complete destruction where Minnesota gets an F trade grade and you get an A+ trade grade.  How else could you explain the Cavs offering two bust draft picks (Waiters and Bennett) and a low #1 for a guy who is clearly a top 10 NBA player?

Dan Gilbert should simply bite the bullet and toss in Wiggins and get Love.  The next three years is all you will get of the real LeBron.  As Van Halen would say, "Better use it up before it gets old."

HM

No comments: