Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Carmelo Says He is an Underrated Superstar -- I Call Bullshit.


72 Guys in NBA history have been at least 6 times an all-star and registered at least 0 playoff Win Shares.  Enjoy this chart, cuz it is awesome:  http://bkref.com/tiny/HOQw0

Now, we have records here all of the way from Dick McGuire and Slater Martin (who entered the playoffs in 1950) to Chris Paul (youngest player to have 6 all-star appearances and a playoff WS).

Let's see how Carmelo fares.  Melo's 5.7 career Playoff Win Shares places him in a tie with Slater Martin for 64th place.....out of 72 guys.  Melo's .106 WS/48 in the playoffs ranks him in 62nd place, just above Jo Jo White.

Is this the company that Melo hopes to keep?  The Slater Martins and JoJo Whites of the world?  Good players, but certainly not people you would call "underrated superstars."  Allen Iverson, Dominique Wilkins, Joe Johnson -- all comparable to Melo, and all considered to be a little overrated and/or one-dimensional.

If Melo is talking about his contemporaries. guys he has actually played against, he fares no better.  There are 13 active guys with at least 6 all-star appearances and at least 0 playoff WS.  Let's use the extreme example - Carmelo's 2003 Draft mate, LeBron James:

James  33.8 WS  .242 WS/48
Melo  5.7 WS  .106 WS/48

It is hard to argue that you are an underrated superstar when the #1 player of your generation has almost 6 times more playoff WS than you do and is more than twice as productive on a per minute basis.  He has reached 5 finals, winning two, and you have reached none.  Melo has reached the conference finals once. 

But if we take the position that no one on an overall production basis matches up to LeBron except Jordan,  we STILL see other superstars faring way better.  Duncan - pushing 40 playoff WS. Kobe, Dirk - over 20. Wade, Allen, KG, Pierce, all over 15 WS.  Parker, Nash, Howard - all over 10. 

Bosh and Chris Paul are FAR better on an overall and per minute basis than Melo.  The only active star who Melo has been better than is Joe Johnson. 

And if you go to active 6X all-stars and ignore Melo's wretched playoff work, his regular season stats don't help him very much.  Again, LeBron has DOUBLE the career WS that Melo has.  DOUBLE.  So if you played Melo at off guard and had a carbon copy Melo at SF, you would have the production of one LeBron.

Melo's stats are WORSE than every active 6X all-star except Joe Johnson and Jermaine O'Neal.  He has worse career advanced numbers than Amar'e Stoudemire. 

It is difficult to state exactly on what basis Melo would claim to be underrated.  He has been multiple times all-star.  Fans buy his jersey in droves.  He is constantly mentioned with guys like LeBron and Durant when his stats are in no way close to either guy's stats.  He has been named to the all-NBA teams 6X (4 3rds and two 2nds).  He just signed a 4 year $124M deal. 

Melo's better pitch might have been "I am getting better."  His last few years have obviously been improvements over his Denver years.  He had an Offensive Rating of 113 last year and a Defensive Rating of 108 - his best spread ever (+5).  But LeBron's CAREER spread is +14 and Durant's is +10. 

The harder I look at it, the clearer it becomes that Carmelo Anthony is, in reality, the most overrated superstar of the past 10 years.   Unless you count Joe Johnson or Jermaine O'Neal.

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