Monday, June 30, 2014

11 Movies Since 2005 That Have Brought In $400,000,000 Domestic - With Their Adjusted All-Time Rank

11th Place -- Frozen -- $400.7M.     101st Place all-time inflation adjusted.

10th -- Transformers, Revenge of the Fallen - $402.1M  (81st)

9th -- The Hunger Games -- $408.0  (94th)

8th -- Iron Man 3 -- $409M (103rd)

7th -- Toy Story 3 - $415M  (90th)

6th -- Pirates of the Caribbean Dead Man's Chest -- $423.3M  (46th)


5th -- Hunger Games Catching Fire -- $424.7M (92nd)

4th - The Dark Knight Rises -- $448.1M (63rd)


3rd -- The Dark Knight -- $534.9M (29th)

2nd -- Marvel's The Avengers -- $623.4M (27th)

1st -- Avatar -- $760.5M (14th).


Your top 13 Adjusted For Inflation (Domestic Only):

Gone With the Wind, Star Wars, The Sound of Music, E.T., Titanic, The Ten Commandments, Jaws, Doctor Zhivago, The Exorcist, Snow White, 101 Dalmatians, The Empire Strikes Back,  Ben-Hur

Corporations Enjoy Right to Religious Protection So They Can Keep Women From Getting Contraceptives

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/06/30/1310551/-In-Hobby-Lobby-Supremes-grant-religious-objection-rights-to-for-profit-corporations

It is truly unfortunate that Congress (and the Court) cannot grasp the concept that if you decide to become a for-profit corporation that you lose your individual rights under the first 9 Amendments and the 14th Amendment.  Sorry - make a choice.

Sadly, this result is probably mandated by the RFRA enacted in 1993.  Closely-held corporations are basically still people for purposes of spreading their religion.  If you want to work at the workplace of a religious zealot, you are gonna be fucked over - and you will probably get pregnant due to the fucking, since the corporation won't pay for your contraceptives.

Since my daughter has taken contraceptives since she was 12 to help her with a variety of medical problems, I guess she only has herself to blame for being so unhealthy and needing the wrong kind of medicine.
Justice Alito, however, insures her that if her employer decides she cannot get a blood transfusion that Alito will help her out since his decision is "narrow" and only applies to sluts who needs contraceptives.   That seems fair, I mean, Christian Scientists do not TRULY believes in their hooey about certain medical practices, so fuck them.  They have no rights.  Only the southern Christians who vote GOP have special rights.

Friday, June 27, 2014

NBA Draft Post-Draft --- Grading Just By Pluses and Minuses

1
 Cleveland
Andrew Wiggins
6-8
200
SF
Kansas
 
  
Plus -- did what they were supposed to do.  Picked guy with highest ceiling.
 
 
  
2
 Milwaukee
Jabari Parker
6-9
240
SF/PF
Duke
Fr.     Minus - see pre-draft analysis

 
3
 Philadelphia
Joel Embiid
7-0
250
C
Kansas
Fr.   Minus


4
 Orlando
Aaron Gordon
6-9
220
PF
Arizona

Fr.    Plus -- may be building a defensive juggernaut with high energy players like Gordon and Oladipo,
 
5
 Utah
Dante Exum
6-6
196
PG/SG
Australia
Intl.  Plus for not picking a white guy

6
 Boston
Marcus Smart
6-3
227
PG
Oklahoma State
So.    Plus


7
 LA Lakers
Julius Randle
6-9
250
PF
Kentucky
Fr.     Big plus, but I hate that he is a Laker


8
 Sacramento
Nik Stauskas
6-6
207
SG
Michigan
So.   Minus


9
 Charlotte
Noah Vonleh
6-9
247
PF
Indiana
Fr.    Minus


10
 Orlando
Elfrid Payton
6-4
185
PG
Louisiana Laf...
Jr.     Another high energy guy based upon his stats - so plus


11
 Chicago
Doug McDermott
6-7
220
SF
Creighton
Sr.     Plus plus


12
 Philadelphia
Dario Saric
6-10
225
SF/PF
Croatia
Intl.   Negative - will they ever pick a guy able to play in an NBA game?


13
 Minnesota
Zach LaVine
6-6
180
PG/SG
UCLA
Fr.   Minus


14
 Phoenix
TJ Warren
6-8
220
SF
NC State
So.     Plus

15
 Atlanta
Adreian Payne
6-10
240
PF
Michigan St.
Sr.    Plus

16
 Denver
Jusuf Nurkic
6-11
280
C
Bosnia & Herz...
Intl.   No idea.

17
 Boston
James Young
6-6
215
SG
Kentucky
Fr.    Plus

18
 Phoenix
Tyler Ennis
6-2
180
PG
Syracuse
Fr.     Not plus, not minus,  flat


19
 Denver
Gary Harris
6-4
205
SG
Michigan St.
So.  flat

20
 Toronto
Bruno Caboclo
6-8
205
SF/PF
Brazil
Intl.   No idea


21
 Oklahoma Cty
Mitch McGary
6-10
266
C
Michigan
So.     Kept the Spurs from getting him, so plus


22
 Memphis
Jordan Adams
6-5
209
SG
UCLA
So.      flat


23
 Utah
Rodney Hood
6-8
208
SF
Duke
So.     at #23, not Horrible, but still minus

24
 Miami
Shabazz Napier
6-0
175
PG
UConn
Sr.      Plus

25
 Houston
Clint Capela
6-11
222
PF/C
Switzerland
Intl.    No idea

26
 Charlotte
PJ Hairston
6-5
228
SG
USA
Jr.        flat

27
 Phoenix
Bogdan Bogdanovic
6-6
205
SG
Serbia
Intl.    no idea

28
 LA Clippers
CJ Wilcox
6-5
201
SG
Washington
Sr.      negative

29
 Oklahoma Cty
Josh Huestis
6-8
215
SF/PF
Stanford
Sr.       negative


30
 San Antonio
Kyle Anderson
6-9
230
SF
UCLA
So      plus

Most Win Shares By a Timberwolves Rookie

10th Place  -- Stephon Marbury

9 -- Craig "the Rhino" Smith

8 -- Pooh Richardson

7-- Kevin Garnett









 







6-- Christian Laettner

5-- Sam Mitchell

4 -- Kevin Love

3 -- Felton Spencer

2 - Wally Szczerbiak

1 -- Dean Garrett

Thursday, June 26, 2014

NBA Draft Pre-Draft - I Actually Can Evaluate 13 Guys!!!

Feel free to read my early morning tweets at @hoopsmavenhm.  I see that draftexpress.com
has the Wolves picking Zach LaVine (who has the worst PER of any top 40 prospect).  I will be glad that I am having a fancy dinner out on draft night.  Yuck.

My player reviews going into the draft:

5 Best Values: 

-- Aaron Gordon (I see him as an 3-4X all-star level NBA player similar to Larry Nance - folks have him going way down at #10 - now imagine this, you can go up 3 picks and get Gordon, or you can sit and get LaVine.....egad, come on Flip Saunders);

-- Julius Randle (Zach Randolph type player, people have him going somewhere 5-10);

-- Andrew Wiggins (highest ceiling of any player in the draft, yet the Cavs seemingly refuse to just pick him at #1);

--  Doug McDermott (I saw Wally Szczerbiak play several very good years - they are basically the same guy)

-- James Young below 15 -- you cannot sit there and tell me that Nik Stauskas will clearly and definitely be a better pro than James Young.  Very high end athlete, plays hard offensively, has ability (if maybe not the desire) to play both ends.


4 Worst Values:

Jabari Parker -- I saw the guy play probably 20 games last year.  He is not consistently explosive, he is not in good shape, he is an OK jump shooter, while he COULD be an OK defender, he refused to work at it any all year.  He cannot guard people out on the court.   Had fewer assists per game than Julius Randle.  Would be a good pick at 7 or below.

Joel Embiid above 6 -- you just don't want to pick a guy with a bad back.  Sorry.
The foot will heal eventually (hell, even Walton and Z had feet that eventually healed) but it is really rare for a great basketball player to have a bad back.

Noah Vonleh above 13 -- the guy's primary weakness?  Doesn't produce points and almost never gets an assist.  Yikes.  So what is your upside here?  Maybe Derrick Favors?  And you think you want a guy whose potential will require you to pay him $12M a year for a stat line of 13-10?    I don't see this going anywhere good, even if he is "good".

Rodney Hood in the first round -- Rodney Hood is a stand still jump shooter.  He his basically a stereotypical white player, but he is not white.  Shorter arms, poor standing vertical, tweener size, fouls a lot.  If you want to draft Rodney Hood, see if you can pick up the phone and get Matt Bonner or Steve Novak or wait to see if Wayne Ellington will be cut by the Knicks. 

4 About Right:

Marcus Smart -- could be really good, could just be a solid bench guy.  Picks 6-10 is a good range

Nik Stauskas - I have seen him listed several times to the Wolves at 13 - that is about right.  Basically a worse Gordon Hayward.  Has some ability, should play some minutes, never going to be a star.

TJ Warren - I have seen him moving up some board into the top 15.  It is hard for me to understand how you put Parker's tape next to Warren's tape and determine that Warren is 13+ picks worse. 

Adreian Payne - Listed at 15-20, about right.  I wouldn't have a fit if the Wolves picked him at 13.  Good solid guy, can contribute on both ends, never gonna be an NBA star.


Guys Where I Have No Idea:

Dante Exum -- who knows?  Taking a wild guess from his highlights, he reminds me of Antonio Daniels.  But I imagine that the reply is "Try Russell Westbrook".  We shall see.

Elfrid Payton -- PG, UL-Lafayette.  I know absolutely nothing about the guy's strengths and weaknesses, and have never seen him play.  I DO like his over 5 assists and over 5 rebounds a game.
That tends to tell you he won't be an absolute bust because he tries hard to be productive.

Any Foreign Big Man -- there will be a couple in Round 1 and you will get the typical line of "highly skilled, could you some toughness, not a great athlete."  I will take their word for it, cuz I ain't watching more Euroleague tapes.  I saw Pekovic and Valenciunas's tapes from Europe and was able to sort through the grainy footage to see guys whose highlights each looked like a young Shaq overseas.  That is about the level of dominance necessary to transfer to being an above average player in the NBA.

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

10,000 Minutes Since LeBron Joined the Heat

The guys who have been the least productive?  Ellis, DeRozen, Josh Smith, Brandon Jennings.   I would put Wes on there, except his 4 guaranteed victories over the Timberwolves every year makes his large minutes played figure worthwhile for Portland.


1              Kevin Durant                                                      11825
 2              Monta Ellis                                                          11446
3              LeBron James                                                    11168
4              DeMar DeRozan                                               11087
5              Blake Griffin                                                       10965
6              LaMarcus Aldridge                                           10493
7              Luol Deng                                                            10453
8              Josh Smith                                                          10387
9              Mike Conley                                                       10249
10           Wesley Matthews                                           10169
11           Al Jefferson                                                        10146
12           Brandon Jennings                                            10125
13           Dwight Howard                                                 10123
14           Carmelo Anthony                                            10091
15           Nicolas Batum                                                   10076

Big Al's general durability has to really make his foot problems in this year's playoffs particularly painful for the Bobcats, since the Heat otherwise had no answer for him.

Hank Baskett Cheats on Kendra......With a Guy

http://www.inquisitr.com/1315398/hank-baskett-cheating-he-reportedly-ditched-pregnant-kendra-wilkinson-for-affair-with-transsexual/

WTF is wrong with these people?  I mean, I have a lot more respect for Elliott Spitzer now when I see the alternatives others are seeking.  Hell, at the beginning of "Risky Business" an obviously horny and desperate Tom Cruise won't do a hooker when he basically has NO OTHER CHOICE.  Are there no bars near the Hank Baskett and Casper Smarts of the world where you can actually confirm and pick up someone born a woman?  Is Tinder not an available option?

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Cavs Hoping To Avoid Anthony Bennett-Esque Season With New #1 Pick

The four worst seasons of guys who played at least 25 games and logged 625 minutes last year included Anthony Bennett (who, remarkably, was not the WORST season on the list).  http://bkref.com/tiny/rkC7g

And it isn't like the Cavs didn't TRY to play the guy.  He registered 45 games with a Game Score under 6.  (10 is an acceptable game).   He also ranked very high on the list (see below) of games with a Game Score under 0 (by the way, I think I saw all of Shved's 24 games under 0).   Now the Cavs can be forgiven for this one thing -- there are a lot of other shitty rookies on this list as well.  For example, Ben McLemore had 50 games under a 6 Game Score and 20 sub-zeros.  Caldwell-Pope was viewed as a high-energy can't miss guy like Paul George or Kawhi Leonard.  He had the same number of terrible clunkers as did Bennett.  The rookie list from last year is a train wreck.  http://bkref.com/tiny/C6mvB  Mason Plumlee #1 in Win Shares?  I knew the Wolves should have drafted him, but still......#1?   Shabazz and Alex Len played hardly at all.  But for injury, the Wolves would have never played Dieng, and he ended up as a top 10 rookie!

Anyway, I suggest that the Cavs MUST draft Wiggins.  Parker could be a complete bust, as could Embiid.  There really is no high-level guaranteed player after that.  Plus you already have one fat boy wannabe scorer in Bennett, why duplicate that effort with Parker?

List of Sub-Zero Game Scores (most total games) in 2013-14:

1Garrett TempleG2014201434
2Kent BazemoreG2014201428
3Tony SnellG2014201426
4Alexey ShvedG2014201424
5Anthony BennettF2014201423
6Kentavious Caldwell-PopeG2014201423
7Steve NovakF2014201422
8Donald SloanG2014201422
9Orlando JohnsonG2014201421
10Perry JonesF2014201421
11Nazr MohammedC2014201421
12Phil PresseyG2014201421
13Marquis TeagueG2014201421
14Aron BaynesC2014201420
15Reggie BullockG2014201420
16Rasual ButlerG2014201420
17Alonzo GeeG2014201420
18Ben McLemoreG2014201420
19Donatas MotiejunasF2014201420

Thursday, June 19, 2014

Joel Embiid - Bad Back, and Now....Bad Foot

Bill Simmons on Twitter: 

Confirming Jeff Goodman's report: Embiid has a foot injury (origin unclear), getting it evaluated today. Won't work out for any more teams.


Now Julius Randle is a big powerful guy who played a whole college season and has a bad foot.  I have seen some folks dropping him out of the Top 10.  Embiid now has a bad back AND a bad foot!?!?  This will truly be a test of the "depth" of the draft we have heard about.  I mean, I have seen Nick Stauskas at #14 for a month.  Would you rather take a healthy Stauskas and get 20 mpg out of him or take Embiid and maybe not have him play at all?

The Nerlens Noel draft pick demonstrated how bad the rest of that draft was ("shit, I would rather take a guy with a blown out knee than one of these slugs"). 

And can the Cavs really take Parker after drafting Bennett?  I know that the citizenry of Cleveland isn't exactly svelte, but geez, shouldn't it be a criteria of a #1 overall pick that they are in shape and extremely athletic on both ends of the floor? 

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Where Do the Heat and Spurs Rank Against the Great Teams of the Past 40 Years?

It appears that the Heat, in their current iteration, are shot.  They have one star, one current top 30 player (Bosh) and a former star who can play at a high level for about 25 games a year (Wade) and then a bunch of shit.  They are not well coached.  They will not return to the Finals without a substantial retooling.

The Spurs may continue on, but Duncan is going to have to retire some day - even Kareem and Karl Malone eventually did so.

So the question could be asked as to where the Heat and Spurs rank on the all-time greatest teams list.  Well, I will exclude teams that were dominant before I turned 10.  So I exclude the old Celtics and the Minneapolis Lakers and the Red Holtzman's Knicks.   I cannot say that my 0-10 year old self can tell you much there.

Starting in 1975, your best teams, two or more titles required:

-- Magic/Kareem Lakers (5X champs, 7 finals  **Magic went to one later w/o Kareem)
-- Bird Celtics (3X and 5 finals)
-- Bad Boys Pistons (2X and 3 finals)
-- Jordan's Bulls (6X, 6 finals)
-- Hakeem's Rockets (2X, 2 finals)
-- Shaq/Kobe Lakers (3X, 4 finals)
-- Duncan Spurs (5X, 6 finals)
-- Kobe/Gasol Lakers (2X, 3 finals)
-- LeBron Heat (2X, 4 finals)

I hope I got them all.  (The Dr. J. Sixers are a particularly rough case - finalists in 1977, 1980, 1982, 1983, they won only 1 title).

9th - Rockets - not that good before or after those two years, titles are subject to a big asterisk as Jordan was off serving his gambling suspen... I mean, playing baseball.

8th - Kobe/Gasol Lakers - more a tribute to good coaching than to the actual quality of this team.  Lost to the Celts in 07-08 and should have lost to them the next year as well.  Beat the awfully lucky Magic in the second final, then were swept the next year by the Mavs in a beatdown that was so one-sided and crushing that it basically ended Pau Gasol's career as a U.S. star.

7th -- Bad Boys -- they beat a Lakers team that started David Rivers and Jeff Lamp in the backcourt, then they beat a good Portland team.  They also took the last full strength Magic/Kareem team to 7 games and then walked off the court against the Bulls when the dynasty was over.

6th -- Heat -- 4 straight finals is a feat matched only by Bird and Magic.  But the Heat lose substantial points for terrible coaching and being so unbelievably reliant on one guy.  There is no team on the list of 9 more reliant on one guy, not even the Rockets, who at least added a healthy Drexler to help Hakeem.

5th - Shaq/Kobe Lakers -- get credit because they played in the better conference (the East at the time was a train wreck) and they won 3 straight titles.  Loss to Pistons proved to be their unraveling, and Kobe spent ages 25-29 without escaping the first round of the playoffs.

4th -- Bird Celtics -- it is fashionable to put the Bird teams higher, but consider this -- two of their three wins came in the finals against pretty bad Houston teams (1981, 1986) who had defeated the Lakers in huge early round upsets.  The Celts did manage to beat the Lakers in 1984 and reach four straight finals, so they do deserve a lot of cred' , just not as much as they generally get.

3rd -- Duncan's Spurs -- the Spurs have won 5 titles, 1999 (Knicks), 2003 (Nets), 2005 (Pistons), 2007 (Cavs), and 2014 (Heat).  They suffered their only finals loss in 2013 to the Heat in a series the Spurs should have won.  They have been excellent for 15 years, which no team on the list can match.  (Even if you combine the two Laker entries, they do not approach 15 years).  Duncan, by my ratings, is the 5th best player of all time, better than Magic and Bird.  Great coaching.  Great front office.  Great, great team.  And still going???

2nd -- Jordan's Bulls -- Jordan's Bulls were extremely well coached over 8 years and  they won 6 titles.  Their victories are not exactly a Murderers' Row of all-time greats - The No-Kareem Lakers, Portland's second best team, Suns, Sonics, Jazz, Jazz.  But they did have the greatest player of all-time and they won 6 times.

1st -- Magic/Kareem Lakers - The Lakers' five titles were over the Sixers twice, Celtics twice and Bad Boys Pistons.   This means that every team the Lakers defeated in the Finals was an eventual champion (Sixers 1983, Celtics 1986, Pistons 2X).  Their 3 finals losses were to two of the all-time great clubs (Sixers, Celtics) and the other came when they were crippled and playing the Bad Boys.

What else makes the Lakers the #1 club?  They had two of the top 10 players of all-time and played in the finals against top 25 all-time great players (Dr. J, Moses, Bird) and they also defeated the number 8 and number 4 teams on this list.  The Lakers were the best team of teams in a Golden Age of NBA basketball.   They are #1.






Shane Battier -- Quitter

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/after-game-5-loss--shane-battier-confirms-he-s-retiring-from-the-nba---i-don-t-have-any-more-to-give-190558403.html

One of the greatest winners of all-time.

Monday, June 16, 2014

The Chart That Tells You Why The Spurs Are Better Than the Heat

http://bkref.com/tiny/9AuOT

Playoff Win Shares -- it goes James then 5 Spurs then Bosh, then Green, then finally Wade.
Win Shares per 48 -- it goes James, then SEVEN Spurs and then Bosh then Wade.
Defensive Win Shares - 4 Spurs, James, 3 more Spurs, then Bosh, then Patty Mills, then Wade.

In Games 3-4-5, Pop had the Spurs find whomever Wade was guarding and just go at him every chance they got.  Be it Parker or Green or Leonard or Diaw, they all took turns torching Wade.

And since the chart covers the WHOLE playoffs, it tends to overestimate Wade's worth.  His Finals "Game Scores" (15+ is good):

10-10-15-3-0.8

Had the Heat somehow won Game 5, Wade may have put up a negative in Game 6.

Wade's Game Scores were worse than Ginobili's in 3 of 5 games.  The difference being that Popovich just benches Manu when he plays poorly.  The Heat played Wade 33+ minutes no matter how badly he sucked.

James spends yet another year grinding out over 4 Playoff Win Shares (4.3).  This ties him with Jordan with 4 seasons over 4.2 WS.   The two men have 8, the remainder of players in NBA history have 16 total.

James' .270 WS/48 in the playoffs puts him at 3 such season with at least 500 playoff minutes, Jordan had 5.  The remainder of NBA players also have a total of 8.

James moves to 2-3 in NBA Finals, losing twice to the Spurs and once to Dallas.  The Heat go 2-2 (loss, win, win, loss) in a 4-finals run, the same as Bird's Celtics in 1984-87 (win, loss, win, loss) and Magic's Lakers 1982-85 (win, loss, loss, win).







Friday, June 13, 2014

How Could the Heat Have Beaten the Spurs in 2013 and Then Get Their Asses Kicked in 2014?

Let's look at the numbers.

In the 2012-13 playoffs, the Spurs were carried by four guys -- Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Danny Green:

Spur Win Shares 2013 Playoffs:  Diaw 0.5, Splitter 1.0, Manu 1.3, Green 2.1, Parker 2.4, Duncan 2.5, Leonard 3.1


If you recall how the Spurs played in 2013, this makes a great deal of sense.  Parker regularly drove into 2-3-4 guys and either shot or dished inside to Duncan or outside to the two wings.

Ginobili was terrible. particularly in the Finals, and Splitter played PF alongside Duncan and generally blew (Recall the LeBron block on him in the Finals).


The Heat were able to win in 2013 behind a Herculean effort by James, plus 6 guys contributing:

Heat Win Shares 2013 Playoffs:  Chalmers 1.0, Haslem 1.1, Allen 1.5, Wade 1.8, Birdman 1.9, Bosh 2.2, James 5.2

With Splitter playing alongside Duncan, the Heat could get more run out of Haslem and Birdman, both of whom were productive playoff performers.  Chalmers was at least OK.


The big change with the Spurs in 2014 is that the Spurs are getting better production out of every big man they play, and Diaw has nearly quadrupled his Win Shares.  The team has become far less reliant upon Parker, and move the ball with amazing speed and precision:

Leonard - will end up almost equal in WS
Duncan - already .5 WS ahead, may end up 33% ahead of last year
Splitter - already registered 250% of his last year's win shares
Ginobili - may double last year's win shares
Diaw - 1.9 versus 0.5
Green - will end up roughly the same
Parker 2014 -  Minus 1.4 Win Shares

Diaw and Splitter are passing the ball like they were Chris Webber and Brad Miller.  Duncan is one-third better and Manu may be twice as good as last year.    The Spurs, therefore, have become far less predictable and far more difficult to guard.  Using only the guys contributing at least 1 playoff Win Share, the total Win Shares accounted for this year are 15.1 v. 12.9 last year.    Not adjusting for games played, that is 23% better play by the Spurs' best guys.


So the Spurs are less predictable, harder to defend, and playing at a level roughly 23% better than last year.   How about the Heat?

In 2013, the Heat had 6 guys other than LeBron who had over 1 playoff Win Share.  This year, thus far, they have 4 guys other than LeBron.

If you look at guys individually:

Chalmers - terrible, about 50% of the player he was last year.  Troublesome for the Heat, because saying Tony Parker is the worst Spurs defender is like saying I am the worst looking of me, Brad Pitt, Channing Tatum, Matthew McConaughy, and George Clooney.  If you cannot score on Parker, it is hard to score on the Spurs.

Haslem - non-existent
Allen - will end up roughly the same.
Wade - will end up a little worse
Bosh - slightly better, about enough to offset Wade
Birdman - about 60% as effective
James - slightly worse.

So the Heat has no point guard play, Wade is slightly worse, and Allen is about the same.  So their backcourt is in substantial decline.   Up front, where last year they got very good production from Birdman and Haslem and Bosh this year they get the same from Bosh and not much else from the other guys.

James has been a little worse.  What is clear from his five Finals appearances in 2007-11-12-13-14 is that James' teams need over 5 Playoff Win Shares from him to win the title. 

2007 - 3.7 Playoff WS, swept in Finals
2011 - 3.8, lost in 6
2012 - 5.8, Won in 6
2013 - 5.2, Won in 7
2014 - 4.1, in danger of losing in 5

For the Heat to win, they will need to get production out of Chalmers, Birdman and Haslem, continue with some production from Bosh and Allen, and get .3 WS per game out of James.  .3 WS in a game is hard.  That will require something like 35-10-8 every game.   But what the stats tell us is that the Heat simply cannot get enough production anywhere else to win the title.  They need a total of 5 Win Shares out of LeBron.  There have only been four such seasons ever -- Duncan(title), Dirk(lost to Wade), and LeBron twice. 

So it is all up to LeBron.  Can he go 35-10-8 for three straight games?  If so, I say Heat win.  If not, they lose.  It is as simple as that.






Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Will The "Tea Party" Ever Turn On Its Rich Masters?

Eric Cantor's stunning primary loss in Virginia was supposedly driven by Cantor's support for immigration reform and his being too much of a "Beltway" figure (oh, and possibly that he is Jewish - not a real religion outside of northern VA).

OK.

But the bigger issue here is whether the Tea Party will ever really turn on its GOP rich-wing Overlords by (egad) starting to oppose tax cuts for the rich.  The people who see themselves as "Tea Party" people generally worship ignorance, racism, their church, and small government - not necessarily in that order.  Most are poorly educated and not at all wealthy. 

Will they ever wake up one day and say, "Well, you know what, I could balance the budget a lot more quickly if I simply allowed the rich to pay more in taxes"?  I mean, Mike Huckabee (the erstwhile champion of this group) once had the balls to say that maybe cutting taxes for millionaires should not be priority #1 for the GOP.  Of course, after that blasphemy, Huckabee's donations immediately dried up and his chances of ever becoming President disappeared, but imagine if Tea Party voters made it part of their litmus test that any candidate had to be for balancing the budget by use of spending cuts AND tax increases for the wealthy.  There are about 5,000,000 wealthy people in the U.S. and about 350,000,000 non-wealthy people.  If the Tea Partiers as a voting bloc abandoned the 5,000,000, those folks would be absolutely fucked.

We shall see.

Michelle Jenneke Teaches How to Stretch

I anticipate huge sales, and virtually no viewer/purchaser doing any stretching.

Thursday, June 05, 2014

And Now, Flip Is Back

http://hoopramblings.blogspot.com/2012/01/is-flip-saunders-good-coach.html

Wow.  It really is a hard sell to season ticket holders to say, "Remember the guy who went 2-15 and was replaced by Randy Wittman?  NOW WE GOT HIM!!!"

SImona Halep, Aided by Breast Reduction, Reaches French OIpen Final

But still it is a loss, in a way.

Wednesday, June 04, 2014

Actual All-NBA Balloting

http://www.nba.com/media/060414-2013-14-All-NBA-Voting.pdf  You are going to have to zoom in to read it. 

Chris Paul, James Harden, LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Joakim Noah are the all-NBA first team.

According to this pdf, of 125 ballots, Durant received 123 first-team forward ballots and two first-team guard ballots.  James received 122 first-team forward ballots and 2 first team guard ballots. 

The big surprise was that James Harden narrowly defeated Stephon Curry for the final guard spot.

According to the pdf above, sheridanhoops.com voted Blake Griffin first team all-NBA and LeBron James second-team.  While this is slightly more defensible than the guys who voted for LeBron and Durant as a guard (neither is a guard, when we want Dwight Howard to get first team votes, do we just vote him in as a guard?  a forward?  I mean, WTF?), I won't go through the analysis of even describing what a terrible vote that is. 

Eva Green - Banned "Sin City" Poster


Sure Shawshank is Overplayed, But It is No "Mrs. Doubtfire"

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-shawshank-redemption-151-hours-of-cable-air-time-in-2013-2014-5

Shawshank - 151 basic cable hours; Mrs. Doubtfire - 155 basic cable hours.

Monday, June 02, 2014

Durant 2011-12 Versus 2013-14 Playoffs


1 Kevin Durant 2011-12 23 20 games 837 minutes  Shooting: .517 .575 .373 .864       4.0 WS


2 Kevin Durant 2013-14 19 games 815 minutes  Shooting:.460 .508 .344 .810             2.5 WS


So Durant was noticeably worse in 2013-14 versus 2011-12.  In 18 fewer minutes he accounted for 1.5 fewer Win Shares.  His shooting was down 5% from the floor and 5% from the line.  He was down 3% on 3s.

Now, of the active players who have put in 800 playoff minutes in a playoff season, many have done FAR worse than Durant (Tony Parker in 2005 had a year with 800+ minutes where Tony registered a paltry 0.6 WS).  But a guy like Durant is held to a far higher standard than the Tony Parker's and Shawn Marion's and Richard Hamilton's of the world.

What I did see from Durant was that he appeared tired.  Extremely tired.  Durant logged 3,122 minutes in the regular season and another 815 in the playoffs.  Of the top 10 minutes guys in the league, Durant, LeBron and Paul George are the only three to go deep in the playoffs.  Durant was #1 in minutes, logging 200 more than #8 LeBron and 204 more than #9 Paul George.

Only 2 Spurs logged even 2,000 regular season minutes this year!!!  (Duncan under 2,200, Marco Bellinelli just over 2,000).

Do you wonder why the Spurs, despite being 1,000 years old at every position, look so fresh?  They had 4 guys who played roughly around 2,000 minutes and 5 guys who played roughly around 1,500 minutes.  Most of their team had played roughly 50-60% as much basketball as Kevin Durant.

You want to praise Russell Westbrook for being in great shape?  He played 1,400 regular season minutes.  He played 46 regular season games.  Wonder why Durant looked tired and Westbrook fresh?  Durant had carried Russell's absent ass for 4 months.

The Spurs, even in the playoffs, have continued to play with significant minutes limitations on their guys.  Despite logging 18 games to Miami's 15, the top Spurs players for minutes have basically the same number of minutes played as the Miami top players.