Monday, September 09, 2024

The Top 36 Players of All-Time As of September 10, 2024.

My Top 36 NBA/ABA Players of All-Time as of September 10, 2024

 

The Top 4

1. Michael Jordan

2. LeBron James 

3. Wilt Chamberlain

4. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

 

Big Gap

 The Next 5

5. Tim Duncan

6. Magic Johnson

7. Bill Russell

8. Larry Bird

9. Shaquille O’Neal

 

Big Gap

 Some Great Guards

10. Jerry West

11. Kobe Bryant

12. Oscar Robertson

13. Stephen Curry

 

Small Gap

Really Great Careers

14. Karl Malone

15. George Mikan

16. David Robinson

17. Bob Pettit

18. Julius Erving

19. Hakeem Olajuwon

20. Kevin Durant


Small Gap 

Very Solidly In Top 25

21. Moses Malone

22. Nikola Jokic

23. Charles Barkley

24. Kevin Garnett

25. Dirk Nowitzki

 

Small Gap

All-Time Great Players With Some Issues

26. James Harden

27.  Giannis Antetokounmpo

28. Elgin Baylor

29. Rick Barry

30.  Chris Paul

31. John Stockton


Small Gap

 Guys Making the Top 36 

32.  John Havlicek

33. Scottie Pippen

34.  Bob Cousy

35. Dwyane Wade

Barely Holding On to the Last Spot

36. Kawhi Leonard







Comments on Revisions to 2021 List

1.  Michael Jordan

2. LeBron James

3. Wilt Chamberlain

4. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

(gap)

5. Tim Duncan

6. Magic Johnson

7. Bill Russell

8. Shaquille O'Neal

9. Larry Bird  these  two switched spots - which was just a personal reconsideration decision made by me.

(gap)

10. Jerry West 

11. Kobe Bryant

12. Oscar Robertson

Curry moves up to here due to his play 2021-24


(gap all move down one due to Curry)

13. Karl Malone

14. George Mikan

15. David Robinson

16. Bob Pettit

17. Julius Erving

18. Hakeem Olajuwon

19. Moses Malone

20. Charles Barkley

21. Kevin Durant - moves up to 20 over Moses and Barkley due to KD's 2022-24 play

Jokic moves WAY UP into spot 22 due to MVPs and FMVP and title and huge advanced stat placements.

22. Kevin Garnett

23. Dirk Nowitzki

24. Stephen Curry moves up 11 spots from here

25. James Harden

Antetokounmpo first moves into the top 36, all the way up to #27 due to play playoffs 2021 through play in 2024.

26. Elgin Baylor

27. Rick Barry

28. John Stockton

29. Chris Paul

30.  John Havlicek

31. Scottie Pippen

32.  Bob Cousy

(gap)

33. Dwyane Wade -- These guys are now down two spots (passed by Jokic and Giannis) and are in danger of 2027 elimination).

34. Patrick Ewing

35. Gary Payton

36. Steve Nash -- These underlined 3 are eliminated from the top 36 (due to Jokic, Giannis, Kawhi Leonard)

Kawhi Leonard added here at #36 due to overall play 2021-24.

Monday, August 19, 2024

August 2024 - Top 36 NBA and/or ABA Players of All-Time: Guys Who Were Considered But Won't Make It

 Luka Doncic - Doncic is 5x 1st Team All-NBA and led his team to the NBA Finals.  He has averaged 29 points per game in the regular season and 31 in the playoffs.  That said, he has played 6 years, and my  evaluation system does give credit for longevity and evaluates players as if they will never play another game as of the time of rating.  He is not top 100 in any counting stat and he has never had the most Win Shares, VORP or MVP votes in a season.  If you are going to rank someone top 36 after 6 years, they should have a couple MVPs or at least had a #1 advanced stat season. 

Doncic can try again in 2027.


Patrick Ewing, Steve Nash, Gary Payton  - at the end of the day, these guys dropped off my Top 36 list with the addition of Jokic, Giannis and my #36 guy.  It was a difficult decision, and arguments can be made for leaving these guys on and putting other guys off.  But they are off.  Maybe I will reconsider by 2027.

Less Well-Known Guys I considered -- 

Artis Gilmore - If you count his ABA stats and give them 100% full credit, he is very close to a Top 36 player.  His NBA stats and accomplishments are not as great.  As is the case with Dr. J and other ABAers, I give their ABA accomplishments some level of discount.  

Neil Johnston -  Champion, scoring champion, rebounding champion, 4x 1st team All-NBA, 5x led the NBA in Win Shares.  Players to lead the NBA in Win Shares more seasons?  Kareem, Jordan, Wilt.  WS/48 - 5th all-time (Jokic, MJ, David Robinson, Wilt).  There is not great longevity, plus, the people who watched him play never seemed to stand up for him on the All-Time teams rankings.  Most underrated player of all-time.

Some Well-Known Guys I considered who did not make it (again):

Walt Frazier, Anthony Davis, Isiah Thomas, Allen Iverson, Clyde Drexler, Ray Allen, Reggie Miller, Jason Kidd, Willis Reed

All of these guys have some argument for Top 36.  

Isiah has the two titles in Detroit, but his overall advanced stats are poor.  There is no other way to put it.  He is not TOP 100(!!!) in PER, WS, WS/48.  Not top 80 in BPM and not top 55 in VORP.  His best ranking in MVP voting was 5th.  Best 5 MVP finishes:  5/8/9/9/12.  The years the Pistons were playing for the title, he made no team All-NBA and finished 15/18/17 in All-NBA balloting.  It wasn't exactly a close miss.  

Iverson has a better overall case (1-4-5-6-7 in MVP, was MVP the year his team reached the Finals).  He has some better (still bad for our purposes) PER and BPM and VORP finishes (60th in PER, 59th in BPM, 39th in VORP) but none of this approaches Top 36, and he was a low efficiency chucker (minus 1,222 points in Adjusted Shooting for his career, somewhat overcome by +800 in FT shooting).  Roughly similar to Isiah Thomas (negative 818, plus 45 FT),  

Davis has 4x 1st team All-NBA and has some really high WS/48 and BPM numbers, both in the regular season and playoffs.  And, subjectively, when you watch him play, at his best he is an absolute monster on both ends.  But he has almost no MVP support over the years, and when he needs to be the top dog his team often gets left out of the playoffs or eliminated quickly.  

Kidd, of course, was a horrible shooter and averaged 12.6 PPG for his career as a starting guard who played a ton of minutes.  6th in career minutes played, 94th in career points.  That is hard to do.  

The shooting guards just don't quite make it.  They all have some weaknesses for a top 36 resume.  Ray Allen received almost no recognition for All-NBA or MVP voting.  Drexler has better advanced stats and some All-NBA recognition, but, for example, he was 1x 1st team All-NBA and is 57th in MVP Award Shares.  Reggie Miller has huge WS and VORP (top 25 in each) and his advanced stats are top 5 (sometimes top 2) for shooting guards, but he was just absolutely never judged to be a top 5 player during any year.  His best year was probably 1997-98 where he was 3rd team All-NBA, 16th in MVP balloting and 14th in All-NBA votes.  Despite his astounding +3,449 Adjusted Shooting, it is hard to name him Top 36 when he NEVER was considered a Top 5 player by anyone voting on the issue.  

Anyway, let's move on to who DID make it.

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

The Top 75 Players of the NBA's First 75 Years, In Alphabetical Order

Not bold indicates a guy not on the NBA's official list.  I have 11 they do not have.


Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

Ray Allen

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Carmelo Anthony

Paul Arizin (5)

 

Charles Barkley

Rick Barry

Elgin Baylor

Larry Bird

Kobe Bryant (10)

 

Wilt Chamberlain

Bob Cousy

Dave Cowens

Stephen Curry

Adrian Dantley (15)

 

Anthony Davis

Clyde Drexler

Tim Duncan

Kevin Durant

Alex English (20)

 

Julius Erving

Patrick Ewing

Walt Frazier

Kevin Garnett

Pau Gasol (25)


George Gervin

Artis Gilmore

Manu Ginobili

Hal Greer

James Harden (30)

 

John Havlicek

Elvin Hayes  

Dwight Howard

Allen Iverson

LeBron James(35)

 

Magic Johnson

Neil Johnston

Nikola Jokić

Michael Jordan

Jason Kidd (40)

 

Bernard King

Bob Lanier

Kawhi Leonard

Karl Malone

Moses Malone (45)

 

Bob McAdoo

Tracy McGrady

Kevin McHale

Reggie Miller

George Mikan (50)

 

Steve Nash

Dirk Nowitzki

Hakeem Olajuwon

Shaquille O’Neal

Robert Parish (55)

 

Chris Paul

Gary Payton

Bob Pettit

Paul Pierce

Scottie Pippen (60)

 

Willis Reed

Oscar Robertson

David Robinson

Dennis Rodman

Bill Russell (65)

 

Dolph Schayes

John Stockton

Isiah Thomas

Nate Thurmond

Wes Unseld (70)

 

 

Dwyane Wade

Bill Walton

Jerry West

Russell Westbrook

Dominique Wilkins (75)

Wednesday, May 12, 2021

The Top 36 NBA/ABA Players of All-Time, May 2021.

1.  Michael Jordan

2. LeBron James

3. Wilt Chamberlain

4. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

(gap)

5. Tim Duncan

6. Magic Johnson

7. Bill Russell

8. Shaquille O'Neal

9. Larry Bird

(gap)

10. Jerry West 

11. Kobe Bryant

12. Oscar Robertson

(gap)

13. Karl Malone

14. George Mikan

15. David Robinson

16. Bob Pettit

17. Julius Erving

18. Hakeem Olajuwon

19. Moses Malone

20. Charles Barkley

21. Kevin Durant

22. Kevin Garnett

23. Dirk Nowitzki

24. Stephen Curry

25. James Harden

26. Elgin Baylor

27. Rick Barry

28. John Stockton

29. Chris Paul

30.  John Havlicek

31. Scottie Pippen

32.  Bob Cousy

(gap)

33. Dwyane Wade

34. Patrick Ewing

35. Gary Payton

36. Steve Nash

Wednesday, May 05, 2021

The Top 36 Players of All-Time, Rated by Me, As of the end of April 2021.

 Will Be Watching Their Backs in April 2024:

36. Steve Nash

35. Gary Payton 

34. Patrick Ewing

33. Dwyane Wade 

(Current guys looking to move up - Kawhi, Giannis, Westbrook, Anthony Davis)


Next Group Up - A Little Safer 
32.  Bob Cousy
31.  Scottie Pippen
30.  John Havlicek
29.  Chris Paul 

Looks Good Through April 2030 at Least
28. John Stockton
27. Rick Barry
26. Elgin Baylor

Top 25?  Now You Are Talking!
25. James Harden
24. Stephen Curry
23. Dirk Nowitzki
22. Kevin Garnett 
21. Kevin Durant

Solid Top 20 Guys
20. Charles Barkley
19. Moses Malone
18. Hakeem Olajuwon
17. Julius Erving
16, Bob Pettit
15, David Robinson
14. George Mikan
13, Karl Malone
12. Oscar Robertson
11. Kobe Bryant

Category "He Is the NBA Logo For a Reason"
10. Jerry West


The Elite - The Top 9
9. Larry Bird
8. Shaquille O'Neal
7. Bill Russell
6. Magic Johnson
5. Tim Duncan
4. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3.  Wilt Chamberlain
2.  LeBron James
1.  Michael Jordan.


By Time Period
3 Players primarily from the 1950s - Pettit, Mikan and Cousy
6 Players Primarily From the 1960s - Russell, Wilt, Baylor, Oscar, West, Havlicek,
3 Players Primarily From the 1970s - Kareem, Doc, Barry
3 Players Primarily from the 1980s - Moses, Bird, Magic
9 Players Primarily from the 1990s - Jordan, KMalone, Robinson, Hakeem, Barkley, Stockton, Ewing, Pippen, Payton

7 Players Primarily from 2000-09 --  Duncan, Shaq, Kobe, KG, Dirk, Wade, Nash
5 Players Primarily from 2010-Present - James, Durant, Curry, Harden, Paul

All-Time Teams (By Position)
First Team:
PG - Magic
SG - Jordan
SF - LeBron
PF - Duncan
C - Wilt

2nd Team
PG - Oscar
SG - West (could be PG, but better as SG)
SF - Bird
PF - KMalone
C - Kareem

3rd Team 
PG - Curry
SG - Kobe
SF - Julius Erving
PF - Bob Pettit
C- Bill Russell

4th Team
PG - John Stockton
SG - James Harden
SF - Kevin Durant
PF - Charles Barkley
C - Shaq

5th Team 
PG - Chris Paul
SG - John Havlicek (could be SF, also played SG)
SF - Elgin Baylor
PF - Kevin Garnett
C - George Mikan

6th Team 
PG - Bob Cousy
SG - Dwyane Wade
SF - Rick Barry 
PF - Dirk Nowitzki 
C -   David Robinson

7th team 
PG - Gary Payton
SG - None Left
SF - Scottie Pippen
PF - None Left 
C -  Hakeem Olajuwon

3 leftovers - Moses Malone, Patrick Ewing, Steve Nash 
(You could play Moses at PF and Nash as a SG, Ewing is then the only 1 left with no team and becomes the 8th team center, waiting for teammates).

LeBron and Michael - 2021 Edition

My work was supposed to be done by April 30, 2021, but it has generally been the case that I spill over a little.  So, May 5, 2021, time to decide between LeBron and Michael.

It is fitting that 4 years ago exactly (May 5, 2017) I listed the criteria by which I judge great players.  Here it is:

A) The primary means of evaluating a player should be his ability to excel in regular season play.  After all, without good regular season play there can be no playoff play. It is also a far larger sample size.  Playing well over 82 games is far harder than playing well over 10-12-20 games.

Advantage - Jordan.  There can be no question that Jordan was the superior regular season player.  His Bulls work, in particular, featured a sustained peak in advanced stats that even LeBron cannot match. Example, Jordan's Bulls WS/48 is .277(!) .  It is only his crappy Wizards two years that brings him down to .2505, still #1 all-time.

Jordan +1


B)  Next on the list has to be the perception of the player from those who watched him play.  I never saw Bob Pettit or Elgin Baylor play.  I do know, however, that they were deemed to be 10X first-team all-NBA.  George Mikan was named the best player in the world 1900-50.  You cannot ignore that fact.

Tie - Jordan has one more MVP and they both have double digits 1st team All-NBAs.  They were each generally regarded by people who watched them as the best player in their league for years and years and years,

C) Then I turn to advanced stats, which are an attempt to measure certain levels of play by assigning a number to them.  The greatest players generally have two things in common - a) they have huge single-season number; b) they have great longevity at a high level of performance.

Tie - both have had huge peaks and huge per-minute efforts in their careers.

D) It is at this point that you start looking at post-season play.  This is where guys like Chris Paul and Kevin Garnett and Karl Malone and John Stockton start to falter.  You will note, however, that all of those players are in my top 26 all-time, so I do not consider consistent playoff greatness to be a disqualifying factor.  It is, however, a factor and one that can impact how the player is viewed when lines need to be drawn on "is Tim Duncan a better player than Karl Malone?"  Since the goal of playing basketball is to win the title, you need to give Duncan the extra "plus" over Malone.

This is where the huge dispute arises between the LeBron crowd and the Jordan crowd.  Jordan's 6 for 6 with 6 Finals MVPs versus LeBron's 4 for 10 with 4 Finals MVPs.  It is clearly better to have 10 conference titles than 6 conference titles.  Anyone making an objective assessment would have to concede that.  But it is clearly better to have 6 wins than 4 and 6 FMVPs than 4.  

When you look at their playoff peaks, a pretty good argument can be made for James.  He has had some simply ridiculous playoff seasons (2009, 2012, 2018).  His ability to carry mediocre/poor teams is unmatched.  Jordan, however, defeats LeBron in WS/48 and BPM over his playoff career.  

Advantage?  Jordan.


E) It is at this point that you need to be able to rely somewhat on personal observation (if possible) and sort of a 'feel" for who was better.  (That is why we have all of these lists).  I fear that many lists use this factor E almost exclusively as their criteria.  I mean, ESPN has guys like Iverson and Isiah Thomas and Bill Walton and Kevin McHale very high on their all-time lists.  There is really no objective basis for these rankings - they are almost purely subjective or based upon something that once happened in one game (Isiah scored a million points with a broken ankle; Iverson stepped over Ty Lue; McHale was impossible to stop in the post (he played with Larry Bird yet averaged over 25 ppg once and over 20 only 5X))  Walton's ranking appears almost cult-like.  Yes, he could perform all aspects of the game when healthy.  He was healthy for 1 1/2 years and mostly healthy for 1 Sixth Man of the Year award.  He has 39 career WS.  His career WS performance is similar to Tom Boerwinkle's).

So, I guess my criticism of most ranking systems is that they start with E, then go to D, then maybe include a sprinkling of A.   I'd say you set your base by looking at A, B, C and then use D and E only in cases of extremely tough calls. 

The bias in my method, I will concede is AGAINST the belief that a guy is great simply because he gets a lot of shots and makes some.  And it is biased against guys who have enjoyed great post-season success (Horry, Chauncey, are disqualified from a top 36 consideration before ever reaching category D).

But I think that is the way it ought to be done.

Since I said this factor can be used in the case of extremely tough calls, and we have an extremely tough call, we need to ask what I think of LeBron and Michael.  I saw both play in person.  LeBron definitely plays like Magic.  A better version of Magic (far better defender, better scorer).  Strong, strong praise in my book.  Michael plays like Kareem - scores at will, you cannot stop him.  A better version of Kareem (higher motor, crazier competitor).  Michael and LeBron are the two best guys I ever saw play in person, and very different players.  If you had a team who was 15-67 and poorly coached, you'd pick LeBron.  If you had a team that was 41-41 and could get a good coach, you'd pick Michael.  So, this isn't a super helpful inquiry.

Tie.

As far as the issue of longevity - I do award "points" for consistently great regular season stats and for all-NBA awards and MVP Award Shares.  All of these are a function of longevity.  Certainly a guy who was great for 15 years has to get a plus over a guy who was great for 6 years.  After you reach 9-10 years of good play, however, there are diminishing returns for playing longer.  But still some credit. 

And on the issue of whether a guy who gets, say, 35 WS one year (has never occurred) and then sucks for 7 years should be ranked highly, I'd say generally no.  The exception would be if the guy was seriously injured. 

I think this is where LeBron clearly gets extra points.  He is 13x First Team All-NBA.  No one else is 12X.  No one.  Ever.  He has more All-NBA teams (1st, 2nd, or 3rd) than Kareem or Duncan, and generally played at a higher level of play than those players both in the regular season and playoffs, bot over a long period of time and at their respective peaks.  Think about that; these are top 5 all-time players and LeBron's consistent greatness surpasses theirs.  The only player who had a clearly higher sustained peak than LeBron over a 5 year stretch was Wilt.  Wilt had an insane 7 year peak.  LeBron has had a sustained peak over 2007-2020. 

Huge plus for LeBron here. 

Summary:

Wins for Jordan - A, D

Ties - B, C, E 

Wins for LeBron - Longevity (by a lot).  

2021 Result:

I am going to leave them where they sat in April 2018.  Halfway through this season, I really thought I was going to move LeBron up.  He was headed for a 5th MVP (would have tied Michael) and a #1 seed (likely 5th title) and was going to pass Wilt in Win Shares.  Then he rolled his ankle and shit just fell apart.  This leaves me on Cinco de Mayo 2021 with a decision of whether I want to move LeBron up based upon an incomplete record when his body is breaking down and he may never be great again.  Has he reached the Karl Malone with the Lakers inflection point?  

I am just not willing to move him up.  While it is VERY, VERY close, I stick with Michael for now.

Winner - Jordan.  Michael Jordan #1 greatest player of all-time.  LeBron James #2 greatest player of all-time.  LeBron can reapply in April 2024.  

Wednesday, April 28, 2021

I am Not Re-doing all of my work on Kareem and Wilt - 2021 Top 36 -- Wilt #3, Kareem #4

Wilt, in my opinion, was a better player and had a better career than Kareem.  Nothing has changed in 3 years to change my opinion enough to flip flop them.

 See https://hoopramblings.blogspot.com/2018/05/greatest-nba-players-kareem-is-4-wilt.html

As I have said before, the Top 4 players in NBA history are in some order, Wilt, Kareem, Michael Jordan and LeBron James.

So, on April 28, 2021, I have finally reached the point where I have to reconsider LeBron v. Michael for #1 overall.  Here are the rest of your Top 36 for April 2021:


Will Be Watching Their Backs in April 2024:

36. Steve Nash

35. Gary Payton 

34. Patrick Ewing

33. Dwyane Wade 

(Current guys looking to move up - Kawhi, Giannis, Westbrook, Anthony Davis)


Next Group Up - A Little Safer 
32.  Bob Cousy
31.  Scottie Pippen
30.  John Havlicek
29.  Chris Paul 

Looks Good Through April 2030 at Least
28. John Stockton
27. Rick Barry
26. Elgin Baylor

Top 25?  Now You Are Talking!
25. James Harden
24. Stephen Curry
23. Dirk Nowitzki
22. Kevin Garnett 
21. Kevin Durant

Solid Top 20 Guys
20. Charles Barkley
19. Moses Malone
18. Hakeem Olajuwon
17. Julius Erving
16, Bob Pettit
15, David Robinson
14. George Mikan
13, Karl Malone
12. Oscar Robertson
11. Kobe Bryant

Category "He Is the NBA Logo For a Reason"
10. Jerry West


The Elite - The Top 9
9. Larry Bird
8. Shaquille O'Neal
7. Bill Russell
6. Magic Johnson
5. Tim Duncan
4. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3.  Wilt Chamberlain
Now we have to pick between LeBron and Michael.  At least I have 2 1/3 days to do so.


By Time Period
3 Players primarily from the 1950s - Pettit, Mikan and Cousy
6 Players Primarily From the 1960s - Russell, Wilt, Baylor, Oscar, West, Havlicek,
3 Players Primarily From the 1970s - Kareem, Doc, Barry
3 Players Primarily from the 1980s - Moses, Bird, Magic
9 Players Primarily from the 1990s - Jordan, KMalone, Robinson, Hakeem, Barkley, Stockton, Ewing, Pippen, Payton

7 Players Primarily from 2000-09 --  Duncan, Shaq, Kobe, Dirk, Nash, Wade, Garnett
5 Players Primarily from 2010-Present - James, Curry, Harden, Paul, Durant

Forming 3 teams of 5
PG - Magic, 2nd string Oscar, 3rd string Curry
SG - Jordan, West, Kobe
SF - LeBron, Bird, Doc
PF - Duncan, KMalone, Pettit
C - Wilt, Kareem, Russell

Forming Teams 4-7
PG - Stockton, Paul, Cousy, Payton
SG - Harden, Havlicek, Wade, none
SF - Durant, Baylor, Barry, Pippen
PF -Barkley, Garnett, Dirk, none
C - Shaq, Mikan, Robinson, Hakeem

3 leftovers - Moses, Ewing, Nash 

 

Top 36 (April 2021 Edition) - 5 & 6 - Is It Duncan or Magic?

Timothy Theodore Duncan was born on April 25, 1976, in St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands.

Earvin Johnson Jr. was born on August 14, 1959 in Lansing, Michigan.

Now, one aspect of my 2018 list that caused criticism and consternation was that I had Duncan too high and Earvin too low.  So, I am not afraid to consider this criticism, and I have thought about it for 3 years.  Obviously, not much has changed and we are in the top 6 and both guy are still around (so, I am not dropping Duncan) and there is no way Magic goes up above #5, so we are where we are.

5 titles

3 Finals MVPs

Over .200 WS/48

The cornerstone of a franchise for over a decade.

These are stats/awards/status shared by both Magic and Duncan.

What is the case for Magic?  Magic went to more Finals (9) than Duncan (6).  Magic was a superior offensive player.  Magic, in fact, is arguably the greatest offensive player of all-time.  Of players who played at least 20,000 minutes of their career during 1980-91, Magic absolutely destroys the field in OBPM and ORtg, whipping guys known specifically for their offense (Dantley, Wilkins) and coming out far superior to Bird.  https://stathead.com/tiny/hQBR1

He has one more regular season MVP than Duncan.  He is 5th in MVP Award Shares while Duncan is 9th.

Even more interesting for Magic is the fact that he was showing no noticeable decline in 1991 and may have actually been a BETTER player in some ways than when he was young.  It is possible that Magic puts up another 70 WS and another 50 VORP if able to play 1992-98.  Magic, really, was headed for a career like LeBron's.

He got HIV.  

Whether you "blame" Magic for that or not, the fact is, he had a 15 WS/8 VORP season in 1991 and he was going to be 32 years old.  It is altogether possible that Magic could have been the #1 player of all-time.  But he is not.  He is, as a result of HIV, 14th in VORP and 24th in WS, while he is 3rd in BPM and 9th in WS/48.  OK, so that is Magic.


Duncan?  Well, he is THIRTY TIMES either All-NBA or All-Defense.  30x.  Think about that.  Gary Payton is like 18x.  Duncan - 30x. That is just silly.  He was the anchor for the Spurs on defense from 1998 to 2016.  He is second all-time in Defensive Win Shares behind Bill Russell.  Duncan won titles while competing against the Shaq/Kobe Lakers.  He beat LeBron's team twice in the Finals.  He has one more first-team All-NBA than does Magic.  Magic played with Kareem, who is a top 4 all-time player.  Duncan never played with a top 4 all-time player and still won the same number of titles.

I rank Tim Duncan so high on my list because I see him as sort of our generation's Bill Russell, except he could score.  In 1999 and 2003 and 2005, Duncan carried his team to the title...on both ends.  In 2003, Duncan had 5.9 playoff WS.  That is the most ever registered in any playoff year.  Then he won in 2007 against a terrible Cavs team.  By 2013 and 2014, he had reloaded with new guys and was winning again.

So, how good was Tim Duncan?  Awfully, awfully good.  And if you want to nitpick, he got the most first-place MVP votes twice, as did Magic (Magic's 3rd MVP was the only time the guy getting fewer first-place votes won).

I thought about it, but I am sticking with Duncan.  Duncan is one of the best defensive layers if all-time.  Magic?  0 All-defense awards and absolutely no one ever promoted him for one.  Longevity and defense need to be rewarded somewhere.  I think this is as good of a place as any.

#6 - Magic Johnson

#5 - Tim Duncan

The #7 Player of All-Time (April 2021 Edition) - Bill Russell

 William Felton Russell was born February 12, 1934 in Monroe, Louisiana.  

Bill Russell's Celtics won 11 titles out of his 13 years, losing only to Bob Pettit's 1958 Hawks and Wilt's 1967 Sixers.  During his 13 years in the league, Russell won 5 MVPs and had the following MVP Placements:

7-1-2-2-1-1-1-3-1-4-3-4

Russell has 133 Defensive Win Shares.  In the history of the NBA and ABA, Wilt has 2 10DWS seasons and Russell has 6.  That is it.  That is the end of the list.  Russell has a SIXTEEN DWS season!  Russell was not only clearly the greatest defensive player of all-time, he is MILES ahead of second place, and he was probably 25 years ahead of anyone as far as roaming around and blocking shots.  Literally. Watch some old Russell footage, you will feel like you are watching a player from 1990 roaming around and playing help defense while the remainder of the guys on the film are just standing around next to their men.  It was not until the late 80s and early 90s that guys realized that this was probably a great strategy defensively and they ought to start doing it.  So Russell was playing a style in the Kennedy Administration that no one really picked up on until the first Bush Administration.  That is simply mind boggling.  Compare that to Golden State learning in 2015 that barrages of 3s will kill an opponent and every team in the league picking that up about 2 years later.

So, in light of all of his titles and the fact that he probably also would have won 8+ Finals MVPs, why isn't Bill Russell #1?  Well, the offensive numbers are just SO bad.  Early in his career, Russell was a slightly above league average shooter in a league where shooting was pretty poor.  Thereafter, below league average.  PER - bad; OWS - under 30 for his career; he NEVER averaged 19 PPG despite playing nearly the entire game.  He was an above-average assist guy for a big man, but he played on teams full of Hall of Famers and almost never scored, so you'd hope he could register some assists by throwing the ball to Sharman, Cousy, Havlicek, Heinsohn, Jones, etc.

He and Wilt played in the league 10 years together.  First-team All-NBAs?  Wilt 7, Russell 2, Unseld 1.  I think the general belief of the players at the time was that he was the most important player in the league, but not necessarily the best.  

I concede that Russell is extremely difficult to rank.  If all you care about is titles, he is obviously #1.  He led his team to 11 titles.  (He had a lot of help, but he was the key guy).  If you want a guy who shines on both ends of the floor, he isn't it.  If you want a guy with overall advanced stats, he certainly isn't it (20th in WS, 28th in WS/48, not Top 100 in PER).  If you judge him based upon his advanced stats, he is just a Top 20 player (Moses, Hakeem, David area - Bob Pettit, for example, is 7th in PER and 16th in WS/48).  

I am going to say #7 - that seems like a sane ranking (ESPN has him at #4).  I won't dwell on it - it is now April 28 and I have promises to keep, and miles to go before I sleep.

Tuesday, April 27, 2021

The #8 Player of All-Time (2021 Edition) - Shaquille O'Neal

Shaquille Rashaun O'Neal was born on March 6, 1972 in Newark, New Jersey.  

Now, imagine, if you will, that your reputation was that you dogged it in the regular season, were routinely out of shape, and just turned it on for the playoffs at the last second.  Now imagine that your regular season awards included an MVP, 8x First Team All-NBAs, 2 2nds and 4 3rds.  And imagine that your stats included this run:

23-14 & 3.5 blocks

29-13-2.9

29-11-2.4

26-11-2.1

26-12-2.9

28-11-2.9

26-11-2.5

29.7-13.6-3.0

29-13-2.8

27-11-2

27-11-2.4

22-11-2.5

23-10-2.3

Most 21-10-2 seasons?  Shaq.

1Shaquille O'Neal19932005TOTNBA12
2Hakeem Olajuwon19861996HOUNBA11
3Kareem Abdul-Jabbar19741981TOTNBA8
4David Robinson19901998SASNBA8
5Tim Duncan19982004SASNBA



Shaq still finished Top 5 in MVP balloting 8x.  Shaq is still 7th all-time in regular season MVP Award Shares, despite his reputation.  

That is the amazing thing about Shaq (4 titles, 3 FMVPs, reached 6 Finals with 3 teams), there is no doubt he could have been WAAAAAAAY better in the regular season,  Yet he's 15th in rebounds, 9th in blocks, 10th in points, 13th in WS, 4th in PER.  

Then in the playoffs?  My lord, look at all of the black ink.  At some point in time, he led the playoffs in scoring, rebounding, blocks, WS, WS/48, VORP.

His 1999-2000 season and playoffs is a Top 10 season of all-time.  How is your favorite guy's peak?  Well, if it is 1999-2000 Shaq, that is quite a peak.

Adjusted shooting for his career?  3,800 without free throws, 2,800 with free throws.  Effective FG% Plus for his career?  120 (120% of league average).  My lord.  

So if I love Shaq so much, (1) why don't I marry him, and (2) why #8?  Well, you just have to deduct some points for his 1 MVP and his constant missing of games in his prime.  That hurts your team.  He won his conference titles with Penny and Kobe and Wade, and he got a LOT out of those guys in the deep playoff runs.  They made his life a little easier.  

What you see with Shaq is he is a Top 5 all-time playoff performer and probably a top 10 regular season player.  That doesn't get you a top 5 rating.  I'm gonna give him #8.  Has an argument for a couple higher; has an argument for a couple lower.

The #9 Player of All-Time - Larry Bird

 Larry Joe Bird was born on December 7, 1956 in West Baden Springs, Indiana.

Bird would not reach the NBA until just before his 23 birthday, and his heel and then his back went on him by age 31, ending his time as an all-time great player.  Bird, therefore, really only had 9 great seasons.  But boy were they great.

Bird won 3 MVPs and his MVP placements in those 9 years are scary good:

4-2-2-2-1-1-1-3-2

Of the Top 9 players on my list, Bird falls only below LeBron and Jordan and Kareem for career MVP Award Shares (see chart at bottom).  Therefore, in his 9 great years, he put up some hellacious numbers.  For example, he is the only player to ever go 24-10-6 for a career.  From 1984 to 1987, Bird was at his peak and was a great peak performer.  

24-10-6.5

29-10-6.5

26-10-6.8

28-9-7.6. 

Those are just crazy numbers for a 4 year stretch.  

So, why not higher?  Longevity isn't great (compare Kareem, Duncan, LeBron, Russell, Wilt, even Shaq), his playoff advanced stats are not the great (he is top 5 in no playoff advanced stat - WS 12th, WS/48 27th, BPM 11th, VORP 6th).  And he only has 2 Finals MVPs (MJ 6, LeBron 4, Kareem, Magic, Shaq, Duncan 3 each).

For a guy with a 9-year crest/peak, you'd think he'd be higher in the per minute regular season stats of WS/48 (23rd) and BPM (7th).  To gain extra points for greatness over a shorter period of time, you'd like to see 5 MVPs and 5 FMVP and top 3 in WS/48 or BPM.  You aren't seeing that.  You'd like to see, for example, that he has a far higher playoff BPM and WS/48 and Net Rating than Kawhi Leonard.  You aren't seeing that -- https://stathead.com/tiny/yCdGe

So, truly a great player, but he just has too much against him to get above #9.

1.LeBron James8.813
2.Michael Jordan*8.115
3.Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*6.105
4.Larry Bird*5.612
5.Magic Johnson*5.104
6.Bill Russell*4.748
7.Shaquille O'Neal*4.380
8.
4.296
9.Tim Duncan*4.278
10.
4.202
11.Wilt Chamberlain*4.152

Who Remains - The Top 9 of All-Time (April 2021 Edition)

9 players are left to rank in the next 4 days.  They are, in alphabetical order:


Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 6 MVPs, 6 titles, 3 FMVPs, all-time leading scorer, 15x some sort of all-NBA


Larry Bird - 3x MVP, 3 titles, 2 FMVPs, 4th in career MVP Award Shares.  146 WS.


Wilt Chamberlain - 4 MVPs, 2 titles, 1 FMVP, all-time leading rebounder, 2nd in PPG, 1st in RPG, 247 WS


Tim Duncan - 2 MVPs, 5 titles, 3x FMVP, 30x All-NBA or All-Defense, 10x first-team All-NBA, #3 in Drtg and #2 in DWS.  206 WS


LeBron James - 4 MVPs, 4 titles, 4 FMVPs, 16x some sort of All-NBA, 241 WS


Magic Johnson - 3 MVPs, 5 titles, 3 FMVPs, #1 APG, #3 BPM, #6 ORtg. 156 WS


Michael Jordan - 5 MVPs, 6 titles, 6 FMVPs, 10x first-team All-NBA, #1 PPG, #1 WS/48, 214 WS


Bill Russell - 5x MVPs, 11 titles in 13 years, #1 DWS, 11x All-NBA of some sort, #2 in TRB and RPG, 163.5 WS (133 of them defensive).