When you get up here to the Top 6, you are working in rarified air. My top 6 guys (Abdul-Jabbar, Chamberlain, Duncan, James, Johnson, Jordan) have
23 MVPs (average of almost 4)
18 Finals MVPs (average of 3)
58 first-team all-NBA's (average of almost 10)
They rank 1-2-3-5-9 and 11 in MVP Award Shares -- https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/nba_mvp_shares.html
They are the top 6 all-time in playoff Win Shares -- https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ws_career_p.html yet despite huge minutes also rank 1-6-8-11 and 14 in WS/48 for the playoffs.
They rank 1-2-3-5-10-12 in most Win Shares as a First-Team All-NBA player. http://bkref.com/tiny/5a8Og
OK, so enough of that. These are the best 6 guys.
#6 Magic Johnson -- Magic Johnson had 155.8 career WS, MILES behind anyone else in the top 6. Every other member of the top 6 had over 200 Win Shares. They are ##1, 2, 4, 5, and 7 all-time. Magic is #24. We obviously know the reason for this was Magic's tragic AIDS diagnosis. But, whatever is the case, it is hard to move him above these guys when every one of them has him by 50+ Win Shares. That is like 7 extra seasons of low-level all-star ball or 3 seasons of MVP-level ball.
Let's examine Magic's case for moving up -- well, was he more productive on a per minute basis? No. Of the 6 guys, he only has a WS/48 better than Duncan. So, how about VORP (sometimes VORP more accurately measures high production players). No, he is the worst of the group for whom VORP can be calculated. (Wilt has no VORP). How about we just count up 10 WS seasons -- OK, Magic had 11, great. That is the same as Jordan, but worse than Duncan (12), Wilt (13), LeBron (14) and Kareem (16). Advanced stats are not Magic's friend. You want some support for the old guys' "Magic is a pale imitation of Oscar" storyline, line up Oscar's WS and Magic's per season. Oscar wins all 13 years. All 13. Magic wins none.
In NBA/ABA history, there have been 58 seasons where a guy had over 17 Win Shares. Magic had no such seasons. Zero. Magic's best season was the 68th best season of all-time. Alex Groza has two seasons higher on the list. Bob McAdoo has one. More to the point, the 5 guys I have ranked above Magic have 27 such seasons.
So, all of these advanced stats do not favor Magic moving out of 6th. So what does he have to hang his hat on? He has 3 MVPs, 3 Finals MVPs, 2nd in career assist, 5 titles, 9 Finals, his offensive rating is 121, which is 3rd best all-time behind Chris Paul and Reggie Miller. He has 9X First-team All-NBA wins. From 1983-91, Magic was regarded as top 3 in MVP balloting 8 times. So, there is a lot to recommend about Magic.
But, in my opinion, he has to stop here for two reasons other than Advanced Stats: 1) his career was cut short; whether that be fair or not or "his own fault" or not, it is true. The 5 guys in front of him played longer and were more productive over the long haul; and 2) Every player above Magic on my list was regarded at some point in his career as a "plus" defender. Jordan, Kareem, Wilt, LeBron, Duncan, all feared defenders. When Magic came into the league, the old guys who had watched basketball said, "My lord will they have to hide him on defense." By 1988, the Pistons had decided that they would play a three-guard offense and go to whomever Magic was guarding. This is a statement made by the Pistons' actual players. Imagine saying this about any of those five other guys. Duncan, Kareem and Wilt are top 5 in career Defensive Win Shares. LeBron and Jordan are ##22 and 23. Magic? 63rd, just behind George McGinnis and Terry Cummings.
So - Magic Johnson was a great player, but I have him at #6 overall, just behind....
#5 Tim Duncan - now, Duncan makes it this high on the list because he is the second greatest team defensive anchor of all-time behind Bill Russell. Duncan is #2 in Defensive Win Share, #3 in career Defensive Rating. Tim Duncan had 16 seasons with a Defensive rating equal to or under 99. He had 9 seasons with a Defensive rating of 95 or lower, both all-time records. Duncan was the on-court offensive and defensive star of the Spurs from 1998 through 2015. That is almost impossible to believe. Tim Duncan has more .16 or greater WS/48 seasons (18) than even Kareem -- http://bkref.com/tiny/4cGul
The only thing that kept Duncan from winning his 6th title is his coach's bizarre decision to take him off the floor at the end of Game 6, 2013. Duncan owns the NBA playoff season with the most one-player Win Shares (5.9WS, LeBron had 5.8 one year) one of the few playoff records not owned by LeBron or Jordan.
Duncan had a stretch where he went 2-1-1-2 in MVP balloting. He is basically Bill Russell playing in the modern era with good offensive skills. 10X first-team all-NBA, 15X all-NBA overall.
So, if I love Tim Duncan so much: 1) why don't I marry him; and 2) why isn't he top 4? Well, Duncan suffers from one issue that is similar to Magic. He only had one 17+ WS season. Like Magic, Duncan was actually a better player in the playoffs, therefore, his regular season stats suffer by comparison. But make no mistake, Tim Duncan is the greatest power forward of all-time, and the #5 all-time greatest player.
(Final Note - I really never cared for Tim Duncan on the court - super whiny, seemed remarkably conceited, never committed a foul. But again, give the Devil his due.)
"I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass...and I'm all out of bubblegum." The Late, Great Roddy Piper
Monday, April 30, 2018
##8 and 7 -- Shaquille O'Neal and Bill Russell
#8 Shaquille O'Neal -- Look, the big fella was virtually never in shape after 1999. He was often heavy and enjoyed life, even if it meant missing regular season games. That explains his 1 MVP Award in the regular season. Despite this, he ranks 7th in MVP Award Shares. So, he was great despite himself.
Shaq won 4 titles, and 3 Finals MVPs. The others with that accomplishment? Michael, Magic, Duncan. No one else. Shaq has 31 playoff Win Shares, playing at a WS/48 rate of .184. There are 7 such players. These 6 guys and Bill Russell are above Shaq and this list. If you take this list:
Shaq (counting 1st, 2nd and 3rd team awards) was 14X all-NBA as a center. During his career, he played against Hall of Fame centers Patrick Ewing, Hakeem, David Robinson, Alonzo Mourning, Dikembe Mutombo, Yao Ming and against Tim Duncan (who says he is a center when it suits him).
Shaq should probably be at #7, but you need to find some place to put Bill Russell.
#7 Bill Russell -- #1 all-time in Defensive Win Shares; the Finals MVP Award is named...........after Bill Russell. He won 11 titles, losing only once to Bob Pettit and once to Wilt. He is the greatest defensive basketball player of all-time. Russell has 133 Defensive Win Shares, 27 more than second place Tim Duncan, roughly 40 more than Kareem, Hakeem, Wilt, KG, Karl Malone and roughly 50 more than anyone else!!
Russell's dominance from a winning perspective has never been matched, ever. It probably never will be matched if they play basketball for 2,000 more years. Russell was a 5X MVP and probably would have won 5+ Finals MVPs, but the award did not exist until 1968!
So - if the guy is so historically great (and he obviously was) why do I drop him off here? Well, he shot 44% from the field, although he got a ton of dunks and layups. He shot 56% from the line. Of the 82 guys who played at least 34,000 NBA minutes, Russell ranked 72nd in total points, 72nd in FG%, 80th in FT% (Shaq and Wilt were worse) and 81st in TS% (Nate Thurmond was worse, Paul Silas was better).
In a really, really weird twist of logic, Wilt had 7 first-team all-NBA's to Russell's 3. These all occurred while Wilt was playing against Russell. But in the same time period Russell had 5 MVPs to Wilt's 4. Russ in an 8 year stretch of MVP balloting had 5 wins, 2 seconds and a 3rd. In a 9 year stretch, Wilt had 4 wins, 2 seconds, a 4th a 5th and a 7th. Wilt played better longer, Wilt had more rebounds. Wilt had far superior offensive stats and advanced stats.
If you look at Win Shares, Russell's career "high to low" rating (rounding) goes 17-17-15-14-14-13-13-12-12-11-11-8-6. Very similar to Shaq's.
Wilt's? 25-23-22-21-21-20-19-18-17-16-15-15-13-2
Russell was the more successful player (and perhaps more valuable to the team he was on). He was NOT the better player. Wilt was the better player, by a lot.
Shaq won 4 titles, and 3 Finals MVPs. The others with that accomplishment? Michael, Magic, Duncan. No one else. Shaq has 31 playoff Win Shares, playing at a WS/48 rate of .184. There are 7 such players. These 6 guys and Bill Russell are above Shaq and this list. If you take this list:
http://bkref.com/tiny/jLo5V and look at all the guys with as many or more WS as a first-team all-NBA player, Shaq ranks..........7th on WS/48.
Shaq (counting 1st, 2nd and 3rd team awards) was 14X all-NBA as a center. During his career, he played against Hall of Fame centers Patrick Ewing, Hakeem, David Robinson, Alonzo Mourning, Dikembe Mutombo, Yao Ming and against Tim Duncan (who says he is a center when it suits him).
Shaq should probably be at #7, but you need to find some place to put Bill Russell.
#7 Bill Russell -- #1 all-time in Defensive Win Shares; the Finals MVP Award is named...........after Bill Russell. He won 11 titles, losing only once to Bob Pettit and once to Wilt. He is the greatest defensive basketball player of all-time. Russell has 133 Defensive Win Shares, 27 more than second place Tim Duncan, roughly 40 more than Kareem, Hakeem, Wilt, KG, Karl Malone and roughly 50 more than anyone else!!
Russell's dominance from a winning perspective has never been matched, ever. It probably never will be matched if they play basketball for 2,000 more years. Russell was a 5X MVP and probably would have won 5+ Finals MVPs, but the award did not exist until 1968!
So - if the guy is so historically great (and he obviously was) why do I drop him off here? Well, he shot 44% from the field, although he got a ton of dunks and layups. He shot 56% from the line. Of the 82 guys who played at least 34,000 NBA minutes, Russell ranked 72nd in total points, 72nd in FG%, 80th in FT% (Shaq and Wilt were worse) and 81st in TS% (Nate Thurmond was worse, Paul Silas was better).
In a really, really weird twist of logic, Wilt had 7 first-team all-NBA's to Russell's 3. These all occurred while Wilt was playing against Russell. But in the same time period Russell had 5 MVPs to Wilt's 4. Russ in an 8 year stretch of MVP balloting had 5 wins, 2 seconds and a 3rd. In a 9 year stretch, Wilt had 4 wins, 2 seconds, a 4th a 5th and a 7th. Wilt played better longer, Wilt had more rebounds. Wilt had far superior offensive stats and advanced stats.
If you look at Win Shares, Russell's career "high to low" rating (rounding) goes 17-17-15-14-14-13-13-12-12-11-11-8-6. Very similar to Shaq's.
Wilt's? 25-23-22-21-21-20-19-18-17-16-15-15-13-2
Russell was the more successful player (and perhaps more valuable to the team he was on). He was NOT the better player. Wilt was the better player, by a lot.
##10 and 9 -- Jerry West and Larry Bird
#10 - Jerry West
As we move along, we need to make tough decisions. West is the logo for the league....literally. There is a good reason for that. West had 162 WS, He had a career WS/48 of .213, he had a playoff WS of 26.7 and a WS/48 of .203. His teams (largely led by him) reached the NBA Finals 9 times. While his record was 1-8, he had 7 seasons where he averaged 30+ points for an entire playoff season.
Every single one of these statistics places Jerry West over Larry Bird. Every one. He scored more total points than Bird, he had more total assists than Bird. He had 10 first-team all-NBA's to Bird's 9. In 2015, I rated him higher than Bird.
OK, that said, why does Bird beat him this time around? Well, Bird has 3 MVP's and 2 Finals MVPs to West's 0 and 1. The guys on my Top 10 list rank 1-7th, 9th, 11th and 24th in MVP Award Shares. West is 24th. Rightly or wrongly, I have decided this year to give more credit to what the contemporary MVP voters said and how the player was perceived when he played. While that certainly cannot be the sole criteria (Steve Nash and Steph Curry are down at the bottom of my list, for example) it is hard to ignore that while Jerry West was thought of 4X as a top 2 player and 8X as a top 5 player, Bird had a stretch where he went 2-2-2-1-1-1-3-2. He was regarded as a top 3 player 8 times, the best player three times and one of the two best players 7 times.
Bird had a higher peak. It lasted less time, and West over 14 years was overall more productive than Bird over 13 years, but Bird's 8 year stretch is hard to ignore. He is, by a little, a "better" player who had a "better" career.
#9 Larry Bird
I have done a LOT of thinking and writing regarding Larry Bird. He was #13 last time around. What is my big problem with Larry Bird? This -- http://hoopramblings.blogspot.com/2017/12/larry-bird-is-overrated-as-playoff.html Bird simply did not perform in the playoffs as he did in the regular season. And he did not play that long, so his WS/48 (you would expect) should be WAY higher because he did not have the declining years that, say, Kareem and LeBron have had. But really, out of 9 big playoff seasons, Bird had two great seasons, 1 very good season, and 6 pretty mediocre seasons. He was basically a little better than Karl Malone and a little worse than Kevin McHale on a per 48 basis.
Of the top 50 playoff WS performers, Bird ranks 11th in WS, 37th in WS/48 and 35th in TS%.
With those two significant marks against him, I left him at #13 last time. But in 2018 I have chosen to focus more on success and achievements and a little less on advanced stats. This may be a weakness of mine in 2018, but it is what I have chosen to do. So Bird moves up - you cannot dispute his 3 MVPs, his two Finals MVPs, his 9X all-NBAs and the fact that MVP voters went 2-2-2-1-1-1-3-2 for him during his 8 best years.
As we move along, we need to make tough decisions. West is the logo for the league....literally. There is a good reason for that. West had 162 WS, He had a career WS/48 of .213, he had a playoff WS of 26.7 and a WS/48 of .203. His teams (largely led by him) reached the NBA Finals 9 times. While his record was 1-8, he had 7 seasons where he averaged 30+ points for an entire playoff season.
Every single one of these statistics places Jerry West over Larry Bird. Every one. He scored more total points than Bird, he had more total assists than Bird. He had 10 first-team all-NBA's to Bird's 9. In 2015, I rated him higher than Bird.
OK, that said, why does Bird beat him this time around? Well, Bird has 3 MVP's and 2 Finals MVPs to West's 0 and 1. The guys on my Top 10 list rank 1-7th, 9th, 11th and 24th in MVP Award Shares. West is 24th. Rightly or wrongly, I have decided this year to give more credit to what the contemporary MVP voters said and how the player was perceived when he played. While that certainly cannot be the sole criteria (Steve Nash and Steph Curry are down at the bottom of my list, for example) it is hard to ignore that while Jerry West was thought of 4X as a top 2 player and 8X as a top 5 player, Bird had a stretch where he went 2-2-2-1-1-1-3-2. He was regarded as a top 3 player 8 times, the best player three times and one of the two best players 7 times.
Bird had a higher peak. It lasted less time, and West over 14 years was overall more productive than Bird over 13 years, but Bird's 8 year stretch is hard to ignore. He is, by a little, a "better" player who had a "better" career.
#9 Larry Bird
I have done a LOT of thinking and writing regarding Larry Bird. He was #13 last time around. What is my big problem with Larry Bird? This -- http://hoopramblings.blogspot.com/2017/12/larry-bird-is-overrated-as-playoff.html Bird simply did not perform in the playoffs as he did in the regular season. And he did not play that long, so his WS/48 (you would expect) should be WAY higher because he did not have the declining years that, say, Kareem and LeBron have had. But really, out of 9 big playoff seasons, Bird had two great seasons, 1 very good season, and 6 pretty mediocre seasons. He was basically a little better than Karl Malone and a little worse than Kevin McHale on a per 48 basis.
Of the top 50 playoff WS performers, Bird ranks 11th in WS, 37th in WS/48 and 35th in TS%.
With those two significant marks against him, I left him at #13 last time. But in 2018 I have chosen to focus more on success and achievements and a little less on advanced stats. This may be a weakness of mine in 2018, but it is what I have chosen to do. So Bird moves up - you cannot dispute his 3 MVPs, his two Finals MVPs, his 9X all-NBAs and the fact that MVP voters went 2-2-2-1-1-1-3-2 for him during his 8 best years.
Recap and Prep as We Go Forward Into the top 10 All-Time Players
36. James Harden (new to the list)
35. Steph Curry (new to the list)
34. Steve Nash (-4 from 2015)
33. Gary Payton (+2)
32. Patrick Ewing (+1)
31. Dwyane Wade (same)
30. Bob Cousy (new to list)
29. Scottie Pippen (+7 from 2015)
28. John Havlicek (+4)
27. Chris Paul (-1)
26. John Stockton (-2)
25. Rick Barry (+2)
24. Elgin Baylor (-4)
23. Dirk Nowitzki (same)
22. Kevin Durant (+3)
21. Kevin Garnett (+1)
20. Charles Barkley (+1)
19. Julius Erving (same)
18. Moses Malone (-2)
17. Bob Pettit (same)
16. Hakeem Olajuwon (-1)
15. David Robinson (-1)
14. George Mikan (-5)
13. Karl Malone (-6)
12. Kobe Bryant (+6)
11. Oscar Robertson (+1)
This leaves remaining, in alphabetical order,
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Larry Bird
Wilt Chamberlain
Tim Duncan
LeBron James
Magic Johnson
Michael Jordan
Shaquille O'Neal
Bill Russell
Jerry West
Now, as you will see if you compare my 2015 list with my 2018 list,
Falling off the list "upon further review" in 2018:
28. Ray Allen
29. Clyde Drexler
34. Reggie Miller
My review of their all-NBA and MVP awards left me a little cold and I decided that in 2018 I would focus more on career achievements and less on longevity/advanced stats if there were close calls. These guys dropped out, and others entered the list.
My top 10 list for 2018 will add in new members Larry Bird and Jerry West and drop out old members (already ranked) Karl Malone and George Mikan.
I am particularly proud of one thimng regarding my 2018 Top 10. If you sort by the most successful playoff performers in NBA History, you get this list: http://bkref.com/tiny/vXtDK Those are my 10 guys!! In addition, my 10 guys have 88 first-team all-NBA selections and rank 1-7, 9, 11 and 24 in MVP Award Shares all-time.
So - let's go. Time is short.
35. Steph Curry (new to the list)
34. Steve Nash (-4 from 2015)
33. Gary Payton (+2)
32. Patrick Ewing (+1)
31. Dwyane Wade (same)
30. Bob Cousy (new to list)
29. Scottie Pippen (+7 from 2015)
28. John Havlicek (+4)
27. Chris Paul (-1)
26. John Stockton (-2)
25. Rick Barry (+2)
24. Elgin Baylor (-4)
23. Dirk Nowitzki (same)
22. Kevin Durant (+3)
21. Kevin Garnett (+1)
20. Charles Barkley (+1)
19. Julius Erving (same)
18. Moses Malone (-2)
17. Bob Pettit (same)
16. Hakeem Olajuwon (-1)
15. David Robinson (-1)
14. George Mikan (-5)
13. Karl Malone (-6)
12. Kobe Bryant (+6)
11. Oscar Robertson (+1)
This leaves remaining, in alphabetical order,
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Larry Bird
Wilt Chamberlain
Tim Duncan
LeBron James
Magic Johnson
Michael Jordan
Shaquille O'Neal
Bill Russell
Jerry West
Now, as you will see if you compare my 2015 list with my 2018 list,
Falling off the list "upon further review" in 2018:
28. Ray Allen
29. Clyde Drexler
34. Reggie Miller
My review of their all-NBA and MVP awards left me a little cold and I decided that in 2018 I would focus more on career achievements and less on longevity/advanced stats if there were close calls. These guys dropped out, and others entered the list.
My top 10 list for 2018 will add in new members Larry Bird and Jerry West and drop out old members (already ranked) Karl Malone and George Mikan.
I am particularly proud of one thimng regarding my 2018 Top 10. If you sort by the most successful playoff performers in NBA History, you get this list: http://bkref.com/tiny/vXtDK Those are my 10 guys!! In addition, my 10 guys have 88 first-team all-NBA selections and rank 1-7, 9, 11 and 24 in MVP Award Shares all-time.
So - let's go. Time is short.
Sunday, April 29, 2018
The Greatest NBA Players of all-time, 2018 Edition. ##13-11
We now enter a stretch in this analysis where we have to discuss what we are trying to do. Are we trying to evaluate who is the “best” player or who has the best career? If you look at someone like George Mikan or Bill Walton or Bob McAdoo or Spencer Haywood or the ABA Dr. J - a good argument could be made that at one point in time at their very best they were way, way better than guys on the list above them. Thinking in reverse, I took Reggie Miller off my list despite his 174 WS (more than Kobe) and Artis Gilmore (189 WS) is off. Paul Pierce has more Win Shares than Larry Bird - I never even gave Pierce serious consideration.
So, why is this inquiry important now? Well, we have 13 guys left. Some were great winners, but some were not. Some played together and you need to evaluate who was the key to that situation and for how long. Kareem played forever, as did Karl Malone - they have enormous raw stats and Win Shares. Larry Bird played effectively 1979-1988. Magic’s career was derailed tragically or he may have played 20 years. So, it is at this point in my 2018 analysis that I will say that we will evaluate regular season success, MVPs, playoff success, playoff performance, advanced stats, strengths as an all-around player and my general feelings regarding players I saw play (which at this point is all but Russell, but I did not see young Oscar, West or Wilt). So, here we go.
13 - Karl Malone. I am dropping Karl down the list from his 2015 placement. Why? He still is way at the top of the list in scoring, rebounding, Win Shares, and all-NBA first teams (11). Karl Malone has more seasons where he had 15 Win Shares than everyone except Wilt, Kareem and Michael. Incredibly durable and consistently great. 2 MVP’s. 2 Finals appearances. These are all the things that had him rated so highly last time. But two things stick out “upon further review” of Karl Malone 1) his playoff WS/48 is pretty mediocre. At .140 he is far, far worse than the all-time greats of the game. And, second, if you review Karl Malone’s all-time MVP balloting, this is not a guy who ever had a huge run of 5 or 6 consecutive top 3 finishes. He got his two MVPs, in part, because people were tired of voting for Jordan. Generally, 1984-87 Bird was the best player in the regular season, followed by Magic thereafter. Then it was Jordan followed by Barkley or Hakeem or Robinson. Karl was a great player, but never a guy you’d say “geez, good argument for greatest player ever”. He is #13.
12. Kobe Bryant - Kobe moves up substantially from my 2015 list. Why? Well, he has 11x first-team all-NBA, he has 5 titles, he has 2 Finals MVPs (Albeit one where he shot 6-24 in Game 7 and weirdly outpolled Pau Gasol for the award anyway). So, much like my decision to include Bob Cousy, there reaches a point where a player’s accomplishments outweigh his advanced stats. That said, however, Kobe was a very high volume and not super high efficiency player. His regular season and playoff WS and WS/48 do not justify a very high ranking. His playoff advanced stats and regular season advanced stats are far closer to Dwayne Wade and Karl Malone than they are to Michael Jordan or LeBron James. It isn’t a close comparison. Penny Hardaway was a great player with a young Shaq. When Pippen played with Shaq in an all-star game he said “it is so easy because he creates so much space”. The Finals MVP in the Lakers’ first 3 titles was Shaq. Kobe in those series was playing against some pretty favorable matchups on offense (Reggie Miller, Eric Snow, Kerry Kittles). Finally, Kobe found great success with Phil Jackson and virtually no success with any other coach. Kobe had some pretty forgettable seasons when Phil was not around. So, congrats to Kobe, if this were a real roster, he’d have made the team (top 12). I just have to keep him at #12.
11. The remaining 11 guys are Abdul-Jabbar, Bird, Chamberlain, Duncan, James, Johnson, Jordan, O’Neal, Robertson, Russell and West. This pick is hard, because to me (spoiler alert, but since most of these entries are getting 15-50 hits, I don’t think I am revealing the secrets of the universe here) you really have to select between Oscar, Jerry, and Larry for this spot. Oscar has the most Win Shares and has the word of mouth as best player (the old guys frigging LOVE Oscar - they refer to Magic as a pale imitation of Oscar). Bird has the most titles and the most MVPs but he played for the shortest time and had only 145 WS. West is the best playoff performer of the bunch. Although his team always lost in the Finals (until 1972) West always got them there and he put up simply heroic playoff scoring efforts, even winning the Finals MVP on a losing team. So??? What to do?
Well, my train of thought in 2018 is to be kinder to the guys with great accomplishments and to try not to subtract so much for advanced stats if I can help it. So I will spare Bird (though it pains me to do so because if you compare his career and Dirk’s career or Pettit’s career, I think you could argue the point for any of the three). And, you just simply cannot look at Jerry West’s playoff resume and drop him. Ergo, #11 - Oscar Robertson. As stated above, the people who watched young Oscar play revere him. He is 9x first-team all-NBA. Despite being a prolific scorer, Oscar also has 1600 more career assists than LeBron James. So, LeBron will have to play into his 18th season, and play well, to catch Oscar. Oscar’s deficiency? Team success. He had one title, later in his career with Kareem. His playoff numbers are good, but “Kobe good,” and not “Michael or Magic good.” In light of the many years where Oscar’s teams either missed the playoffs or got to the playoffs and his was merely very good, I have to rank Bird and West higher. This may be a time when “body of work” doesn’t truly reflect the greatness of the player. That said, I am at the point where players are being judged against people like Magic Johnson (3 MVPs, 5 titles) and Kareem (6 MVPs 5 titles) and Michael Jordan (5 MVPs 6 titles killer advanced stats). We got drop some people off. And for whatever reason, for all the great things Oscar did, he wasn’t regularly beating West and Wilt and Russell from 1960-69. Oscar is #11.
So, why is this inquiry important now? Well, we have 13 guys left. Some were great winners, but some were not. Some played together and you need to evaluate who was the key to that situation and for how long. Kareem played forever, as did Karl Malone - they have enormous raw stats and Win Shares. Larry Bird played effectively 1979-1988. Magic’s career was derailed tragically or he may have played 20 years. So, it is at this point in my 2018 analysis that I will say that we will evaluate regular season success, MVPs, playoff success, playoff performance, advanced stats, strengths as an all-around player and my general feelings regarding players I saw play (which at this point is all but Russell, but I did not see young Oscar, West or Wilt). So, here we go.
13 - Karl Malone. I am dropping Karl down the list from his 2015 placement. Why? He still is way at the top of the list in scoring, rebounding, Win Shares, and all-NBA first teams (11). Karl Malone has more seasons where he had 15 Win Shares than everyone except Wilt, Kareem and Michael. Incredibly durable and consistently great. 2 MVP’s. 2 Finals appearances. These are all the things that had him rated so highly last time. But two things stick out “upon further review” of Karl Malone 1) his playoff WS/48 is pretty mediocre. At .140 he is far, far worse than the all-time greats of the game. And, second, if you review Karl Malone’s all-time MVP balloting, this is not a guy who ever had a huge run of 5 or 6 consecutive top 3 finishes. He got his two MVPs, in part, because people were tired of voting for Jordan. Generally, 1984-87 Bird was the best player in the regular season, followed by Magic thereafter. Then it was Jordan followed by Barkley or Hakeem or Robinson. Karl was a great player, but never a guy you’d say “geez, good argument for greatest player ever”. He is #13.
12. Kobe Bryant - Kobe moves up substantially from my 2015 list. Why? Well, he has 11x first-team all-NBA, he has 5 titles, he has 2 Finals MVPs (Albeit one where he shot 6-24 in Game 7 and weirdly outpolled Pau Gasol for the award anyway). So, much like my decision to include Bob Cousy, there reaches a point where a player’s accomplishments outweigh his advanced stats. That said, however, Kobe was a very high volume and not super high efficiency player. His regular season and playoff WS and WS/48 do not justify a very high ranking. His playoff advanced stats and regular season advanced stats are far closer to Dwayne Wade and Karl Malone than they are to Michael Jordan or LeBron James. It isn’t a close comparison. Penny Hardaway was a great player with a young Shaq. When Pippen played with Shaq in an all-star game he said “it is so easy because he creates so much space”. The Finals MVP in the Lakers’ first 3 titles was Shaq. Kobe in those series was playing against some pretty favorable matchups on offense (Reggie Miller, Eric Snow, Kerry Kittles). Finally, Kobe found great success with Phil Jackson and virtually no success with any other coach. Kobe had some pretty forgettable seasons when Phil was not around. So, congrats to Kobe, if this were a real roster, he’d have made the team (top 12). I just have to keep him at #12.
11. The remaining 11 guys are Abdul-Jabbar, Bird, Chamberlain, Duncan, James, Johnson, Jordan, O’Neal, Robertson, Russell and West. This pick is hard, because to me (spoiler alert, but since most of these entries are getting 15-50 hits, I don’t think I am revealing the secrets of the universe here) you really have to select between Oscar, Jerry, and Larry for this spot. Oscar has the most Win Shares and has the word of mouth as best player (the old guys frigging LOVE Oscar - they refer to Magic as a pale imitation of Oscar). Bird has the most titles and the most MVPs but he played for the shortest time and had only 145 WS. West is the best playoff performer of the bunch. Although his team always lost in the Finals (until 1972) West always got them there and he put up simply heroic playoff scoring efforts, even winning the Finals MVP on a losing team. So??? What to do?
Well, my train of thought in 2018 is to be kinder to the guys with great accomplishments and to try not to subtract so much for advanced stats if I can help it. So I will spare Bird (though it pains me to do so because if you compare his career and Dirk’s career or Pettit’s career, I think you could argue the point for any of the three). And, you just simply cannot look at Jerry West’s playoff resume and drop him. Ergo, #11 - Oscar Robertson. As stated above, the people who watched young Oscar play revere him. He is 9x first-team all-NBA. Despite being a prolific scorer, Oscar also has 1600 more career assists than LeBron James. So, LeBron will have to play into his 18th season, and play well, to catch Oscar. Oscar’s deficiency? Team success. He had one title, later in his career with Kareem. His playoff numbers are good, but “Kobe good,” and not “Michael or Magic good.” In light of the many years where Oscar’s teams either missed the playoffs or got to the playoffs and his was merely very good, I have to rank Bird and West higher. This may be a time when “body of work” doesn’t truly reflect the greatness of the player. That said, I am at the point where players are being judged against people like Magic Johnson (3 MVPs, 5 titles) and Kareem (6 MVPs 5 titles) and Michael Jordan (5 MVPs 6 titles killer advanced stats). We got drop some people off. And for whatever reason, for all the great things Oscar did, he wasn’t regularly beating West and Wilt and Russell from 1960-69. Oscar is #11.
Friday, April 27, 2018
All-Time NBA Player Ranking - April 2018 Edition, ##18-14
Well, if we are going to try to get this thing done, or mostly done, by the end of April, we need to do a tier today. So, here goes. Tier 18-14
18. Moses Malone. While it hurts me some to have Moses here at #18 (I had him at #15 in 2015), when you reach this level you are really splitting hairs. So what I did was look at this chart:
What that chart will tell you is, for the years where the guy was First-Team All-NBA, how did he play. So, what you see here is that Moses was 29th in total Win Shares and 42nd in WS/48 for the guys on the list. Also, while Moses has 3 MVPs he only is 15th in MVP Award Shares. He also only has 8 seasons with 10+ Win Shares. Moses Malone from 1979-83 may have been the best player in all of basketball. Certainly that was the case in 1982-83. He was ridiculously dominant, so much so that he swept Kareem's Lakers in 1983. So what do I say here? I think 18 is an acceptable spot. Moses was unbelievable for 4-5 years, outstanding for 3-4 more, then really good. I will go #18.
17. Hakeem Olajuwon -- again, a slight drop from 2015. Looking again at the aforementioned chart, we see that Hakeem was 20th in overall WS, 57th in WS/48 as an all-NBAer, Outside of the chart, he is also 15th in playoff WS/48, 19th in MVP Award Shares, he is 21st in career WS and he is only a 1X MVP. An argument can be made that Moses should be higher, but Hakeem was the better defender and he has 2 titles to Moses' one. He goes here.
16. Bob Pettit - Named by Bill Russell as the best PF he ever faced, Pettit has 2 MVPs, 10X First-team all-NBAs, his Win Shares and WS/48 as an all-NBAer are almost identical to Larry Bird. He won a title. He retired as the NBA's all-time leading scorer. His 26/16 career line places him 8th all-time in scoring per game and 3rd all-time in rebounds per game. While his career was shorter than most great players, he had 10 seasons with at least 10 WS. Not only was Pettit a great player and recognized as such (4x MVP of the all-star game for example), he was objectively a great Win Shares and WS/48 player for the years he played. Any list that does not put Bob Pettit pretty close to Larry Bird is a terrible list.
15. David Robinson - now, David Robinson had VERY little team success with the crappy teammates that the Spurs gave him pre-Duncan. Once he got Duncan - 2 titles. Robinson had only 1 MVP, only 4X First-team all-NBAs. No Finals MVPs. Ergo, shouldn't he be lower? For his career, Robinson is 3rd in WS/48 (Paul, Jordan). In the years he was first-team all-NBA his WS/48 were better than George Mikan and LeBron James. So at the peak of the peak, Robinson was amazing. Great defender. And he actually was better for longer than most recall (11 seasons with 10 or more WS).
I believe that David was a better player than Hakeem, and you are never going to convince me otherwise, so here is an example of how if you want to make your own list - go ahead. This is mine. David is #15.
14. George Mikan -- Sadly, I am going to fold to pressure here. Mikan was named to the 25th and 35th anniversary teams. He was deemed the best player of the first 50 years of the NBA. They changed the rules for him (wider lane, shot clock, no goaltending). He won 5 titles. But looking at the overall stats (and knowing I kept out guys like Neil Johnston and Dolph Schayes altogether) I have to concede that Mikan (barely cracked 100 WS) who played for the 15th most WS at all-NBA status, who only played 3 enormous seasons (21, 21, 23 Win Shares) needs to be docked for only playing 439 games. It is too bad, but unless I am going to pull an ESPN Panel deal and say Steph Curry's 3 super-great seasons rank him top 20, I need to show some consistency and rank Mikan a little lower than I'd like.
That leaves us with 13 guys to rank, in alphabetical order Abdul-Jabbar, Bird, Bryant, Chamberlain, Duncan, James, Johnson, Jordan, Malone, O'Neal, Robertson, Russell, West
18. Moses Malone. While it hurts me some to have Moses here at #18 (I had him at #15 in 2015), when you reach this level you are really splitting hairs. So what I did was look at this chart:
What that chart will tell you is, for the years where the guy was First-Team All-NBA, how did he play. So, what you see here is that Moses was 29th in total Win Shares and 42nd in WS/48 for the guys on the list. Also, while Moses has 3 MVPs he only is 15th in MVP Award Shares. He also only has 8 seasons with 10+ Win Shares. Moses Malone from 1979-83 may have been the best player in all of basketball. Certainly that was the case in 1982-83. He was ridiculously dominant, so much so that he swept Kareem's Lakers in 1983. So what do I say here? I think 18 is an acceptable spot. Moses was unbelievable for 4-5 years, outstanding for 3-4 more, then really good. I will go #18.
17. Hakeem Olajuwon -- again, a slight drop from 2015. Looking again at the aforementioned chart, we see that Hakeem was 20th in overall WS, 57th in WS/48 as an all-NBAer, Outside of the chart, he is also 15th in playoff WS/48, 19th in MVP Award Shares, he is 21st in career WS and he is only a 1X MVP. An argument can be made that Moses should be higher, but Hakeem was the better defender and he has 2 titles to Moses' one. He goes here.
16. Bob Pettit - Named by Bill Russell as the best PF he ever faced, Pettit has 2 MVPs, 10X First-team all-NBAs, his Win Shares and WS/48 as an all-NBAer are almost identical to Larry Bird. He won a title. He retired as the NBA's all-time leading scorer. His 26/16 career line places him 8th all-time in scoring per game and 3rd all-time in rebounds per game. While his career was shorter than most great players, he had 10 seasons with at least 10 WS. Not only was Pettit a great player and recognized as such (4x MVP of the all-star game for example), he was objectively a great Win Shares and WS/48 player for the years he played. Any list that does not put Bob Pettit pretty close to Larry Bird is a terrible list.
15. David Robinson - now, David Robinson had VERY little team success with the crappy teammates that the Spurs gave him pre-Duncan. Once he got Duncan - 2 titles. Robinson had only 1 MVP, only 4X First-team all-NBAs. No Finals MVPs. Ergo, shouldn't he be lower? For his career, Robinson is 3rd in WS/48 (Paul, Jordan). In the years he was first-team all-NBA his WS/48 were better than George Mikan and LeBron James. So at the peak of the peak, Robinson was amazing. Great defender. And he actually was better for longer than most recall (11 seasons with 10 or more WS).
I believe that David was a better player than Hakeem, and you are never going to convince me otherwise, so here is an example of how if you want to make your own list - go ahead. This is mine. David is #15.
14. George Mikan -- Sadly, I am going to fold to pressure here. Mikan was named to the 25th and 35th anniversary teams. He was deemed the best player of the first 50 years of the NBA. They changed the rules for him (wider lane, shot clock, no goaltending). He won 5 titles. But looking at the overall stats (and knowing I kept out guys like Neil Johnston and Dolph Schayes altogether) I have to concede that Mikan (barely cracked 100 WS) who played for the 15th most WS at all-NBA status, who only played 3 enormous seasons (21, 21, 23 Win Shares) needs to be docked for only playing 439 games. It is too bad, but unless I am going to pull an ESPN Panel deal and say Steph Curry's 3 super-great seasons rank him top 20, I need to show some consistency and rank Mikan a little lower than I'd like.
That leaves us with 13 guys to rank, in alphabetical order Abdul-Jabbar, Bird, Bryant, Chamberlain, Duncan, James, Johnson, Jordan, Malone, O'Neal, Robertson, Russell, West
Timberwolves 2017-18 Season In Review
The Timberwolves went 47-35 and squeaked by Denver in Game 82 to win the #8 seed in the West. They were immediately whacked by Houston 4-1 in the first round. The team played its first playoff games (and got its first playoff win) without Kevin Garnett, ending a 14-year no playoffs drought.
The good:
1) KAT was #2 in the NBA in Win Shares, he played all 82 games. He made the all-star team and may make one of the top 3 all-NBA teams.
2) Jimmy Butler brought his 14 Win Shares to Minnesota, and, despite a slow start where he was trying to be a facilitator, he had an excellent season, marred only by a knee injury over the last 20 games of the year. Butler was named to the all-star team and has an outside shot at 3rd team all-NBA.
3) Taj Gibson shocked me (and I presume pretty much everyone) by having his best overall season ever as a pro. Despite being 32 years old, Taj had career bests in FG% (by 5%), FT%, steals, minutes played, VORP, total WS, True Shooting %,, etc. And he provided veteran leadership, post scoring, and toughness.
4) Jeff Teague, Tyus Jones and Nemanja Bjelica each had up and down years, but more up than down as they all contributed good play and had a WS/48 around .100 for each guy. If you have two big hitters like KAT and Butler and can supplement with .100 guys, that is a very good thing.
The Bad:
5) Gorgui Dieng lost minutes to Taj, and had many stretches where he was downright awful. While overall his Advanced Stats fit into the Tyus-Teague-Bjeli group, Gorgui carries a $60M price tage for this year and the next 3. Tyus and Bjeli make next to nothing. You have to putplay those guys to justify your monster salary.
6) Jamal Crawford had a regular season ORtg-DRtg of 104-116, and in the playoffs went to a slightly "better" 110-117. He presented the Wolves with a high-volume, low-efficiency player, which they really had no need for since they already had......
7) Andrew Wiggins. ORtg 101, DRtg 113 (Net Rating negative 12, the same as Crawford). He placed 1st on the team in minutes played but yet was 8th on the team in Win Shares. 8th. Tyus Jones had 75% more Win Shares than Wiggy and played at a per minute efficiency equal to 350% of Wiggy. Tyus did not play 1/2 of Wiggy's minutes.
Wiggins posted the following lows or almost lows for his career (he has played 4 years):
FG% - next to worst by .001
Assists (tie)
PPG - next to worst
Offensive rating - worst
PER - worst
OWS - worst by a factor of 4X
WS - tied for worst
WS/48 - tied for worst
Offensive Box Plus-Minus - worst by a factor of 2.
VORP - second worst.
Wiggins became the second Wolf veteran (4th year or later) to ever play 2,800+ minutes and yet record 2.5 or fewer Win Shares (2.1). Chuck Person in 1992-93 played nearly 3,000 minutes for the Wolves and had 0.0 Win Shares. So, Wiggy at least was not the worst ever Wolf. He is due $150M over the next 5 years, seems high for a guy who is basically playing at the level of Fred Carter.
8) Signing Derrick Rose - Why? You have a team that is struggling to make the playoffs, you have a roster that could really use all of the following: 1) huge big guy, 2) three point spot up shooter; 3) defensive stopper. You sign a gunning point guard who basically goes one-on-one every possession and never runs the offense. Laying to one side his off the court antics (all of which are awful), this is a very bad addition. Including those antics, this is an unforgiveable decision.
The Ugly
9) Thibodeau did basically as bad of a job coaching the Timberwolves as could possibly be done.
Some example:
-- The NBA game has moved to a 3 pointer game, yet the Wolves shoot almost no threes and are terrible at defending the three. The Wolves do not design their offense to get threes or design their defense to stop threes. It is almost a willful negligence by Thibs, as he states at times, "I know we have to shoot more threes" yet designs nothing to get threes and signs guys like Derrick Rose who are non-shooters (7-30 on regular season threes).
-- Here are a few examples of player strengths and weaknesses that Thibs does not emphasize/protect.
KAT is not a big inside shotblocking center. He is slightly built and around 6'9.75" in bare feet. He is actually VERY good at switching onto smaller players on the perimeter and challenging their shots. So Thibs a) does not play KAT with a bigger center; b) plays a defense that encourages KAT to fall back into the paint; and c) leaves KAT as the sole defender at the rim. Thibs also does not trap or hedge hard on pick and roll situations, so players regularly charge hard into the lane where KAT is the last defender at the rim - again, a skill set he does not have.
KAT is also a Bird/Nowitzki level shooter. He is 6th on the club in shots per minute.
Tyus Jones - Tyus's two primary skills are that he never makes a mistake running the offense and he is an excellent team defender. Tyus playing with the starters had a ridiculously good Net Rating (over +10). So, you'd figure that Tyus would play 7-10 minutes with the starters every game and run the offense with the ball in his hands. You'd also figure that when he played with the bench he would run the offense. What did Thibs do? He played Tyus almost exclusively with the bench, had Tyus dribble to halfcourt, then hand the ball to Crawford, then go stand in the corner as Crawford dribbled 23 times and took a closely guarded two.
This decision basically negated the skill set of two players. Crawford at his current age is still an excellent open jump shooter. He is no longer excellent at getting open shots. He concentrates almost not at all on getting the ball to others. (He actually is a good passer, but every play is designed for him to try to shoot). What you end up with is Crawford being used sub-optimally and Tyus being used almost not at all. Tyus's season for a small guard was so unusual that it is one of only 11 such seasons in 35 years. http://bkref.com/tiny/vr6YN
So, KAT is Dirk Nowitzki and Thibs plays him as Pau Gasol. Tyus is basically Darren Collison and Thibs plays him in the role of Steve Kerr.
Crawford - Crawford is in his 18th year, he is a low-efficiency and high volume shooter who can actually help a team if you play him off the ball. So he can be JJ Redick. Instead, Thibs views him as James Harden or LeBron James.
Now, Wiggy? I don't know if you can really blame Thibs for how shitty Wiggy is. But he DID sign him to a max deal. So if you sign a guy to a max deal, you need to figure out how you can play him that emphasizes his few strengths and hides his weaknesses. Otherwise, don't sign him. So, how does Thibs play him? Well, he runs a little isolation for him, he sometimes runs him into the post, and.........that is about it. If you watched Wiggy through 35 games with Flip and at Kansas and with the Canadian National Team, you quickly learn this - if you let him sit and do nothing, he will sit and do nothing. Wiggy makes Nick Batum's activity level look like Corey Brewer's or a playoff LeBron James's.
If you are going to have Wiggy as a highly paid player (which is an effing disaster, but let's pretend you weren't involved in setting the fire and are just cleaning up the ashes) you need to involve him in running out and cutting, and getting screens set for him and driving to the hoop wildly. You have to tell him that if he keeps shooting awful 2s he will be benched. On D, he has to guard the best guy. Why? Cuz he has no concept of team defense, never helps, and will not help the helper or rebound. So, look at the top three or 4 small guys and have Wiggy guard the one most likely to run dribble isolation.
Thibs, remarkably, has Wiggy stand off the ball. If you are going to do that, I would literally be a better player for you than Wiggy. I can hit an open three. I will run in and see if I can get a rebound. I will sprint back on defense. Wiggy will do NONE of those. Do you know how hard it is to be a young 6'8" player who plays 2,600 minutes a year and cannot get either 3 assists or 5 rebounds a game? It is REALLY REALLY hard. http://bkref.com/tiny/zb2jS yet Wiggy does it EVERY SINGLE YEAR!!!
So - if you as President of Basketball Operations have decided that you are going to ruin the franchise by signing the guy, you have to force feed him the ball. You have no choice. Instead, Thibs treats Wiggy like he is Chris Bosh (he is going to get rebounds, make open shots when he gets them, make the most of his few opportunities). Wiggy AT BEST is Demar DeRozan or Carmelo Anthony. He needs 20+ shots a game to provide you with any benefit.
Jeff Teague -- wants to play 28-30 MPG, wants to play some off the ball with Tyus (note a common theme that all Wolves want to play with Tyus as the primary distributor). How do I know? That is what Teague says to the press. Yet Teague (a guy who likes to run and who makes VEEEEEEERY slow decisions in the half court and who is terrible at feeding the post) is used by Thibs to feed the post and to get out of the way when Jimmy Butler handles the ball.
Jimmy Butler - even though he likes to (and gets to) play hero ball in the 4th, what Butler really needs is a coach who recognizes when to rest him (like up or down 20 in the 4th) and who recognizes when an opponent is just lighting up Jimmy defensively. There are a lot of guys who Jimmy can guard (Westbrook for one, LeBron for another). But he struggles with some other guys (Dion Waiters comes to mind). Get him OFF those guys and let Wiggy guard them. Thibs refuses to recognize that some nights Jimmy does not have it on D.
Nemanja Bjelica - should get 6 three attempts per game. Thibs never plays him.
Cole Aldrich - Never plays. Look, I am not saying he is a first-team all-NBA candidate, but you signed him to 3 years and $22M, he is an adequate backup center who can go use 4-5 fouls a game on monsters like Embiid and Whiteside and maybe give KAT a 10-12 minute respite. Play him.
So - the "Ugly" with the Wolves is the coaching situation. They play an outdated style of ball, are (for no good reason) one of the worst defensive teams in the league, and their coach seems content to have that continue.
Thibs also seems to believe that HE is never responsible for any adjustments. His constant reply to the media about losses? "Guys just have to play harder."
Your JOB as a coach is to HELP your team win games. To say that you will not try something new means you will not try to effectively do your job. That is a really shocking admission by any employee. As I have said, if someone told me that when I wear green tights my team wins by 10-12 points every game, I'd be wearing green tights. Tyus with the starters this year was +10-12 on the average. To REFUSE to keep going for a little bit each game is insane. Playing Wiggy 2900 minutes (basically the same as LeBron James) when his WS/48 is .030 is inexcusable. It just is. I am sorry - the lesson there is that no matter how badly you suck, I am going to play you. What incentive does that give Wiggy to play better? None. Similarly, Marcus Georges-Hunt actually had some good moments; banished to the pine.
In short, Thibs took a team that added a 14 WS player and a 7 WS player, gave up basically nothing in return and he improved by 16 wins. Congrats. That is about as badly as you could possibly have done.
Am I, as a 29 year Timberwolves Season Ticket Holder, happy they won 47 games and made the playoffs? Of course. The #1 reason being that the streak had rendered the club a laughingstock. When you are mentioned in the same breath as the Cleveland Browns, it is bad. You need to get off that list. But - had we been able to 1) emphasize our strengths; 2) de-emphasize our weaknesses; 3) take away the opponent's 3 point shooting; and 4) adjust for our opponents, it could have been so much better.
I fear that the attitude in the organization will be "let's allow Thibs to be Thibs" and not ask for a more reasonable approach to the game of basketball. Already we hear rumors that Derrick Rose could be signed to a 4 year $25M contract. Why!?!?!? His last 3-5 seasons should tell you that he is not a good player and cannot be a good player on a winning team. Will 5 playoff games where he played off guard and shot 70% from 3 overcome the fact that he is a career 25% three point shooter? Is he going to be a bench off guard? Really?
So - anyway, we made the playoffs and I should be very happy. I really am not.
I used to drive home to Upstate NY from North Carolina and from Minnesota. It would be 15-20 hours of driving. Sometimes I drove straight through. I knew that when I got there, I would be glad that I had arrived, but as I got older I realized that what I had just done (while achieving my goal) would ruin me for 24-36 hours. That is what Thibs just accomplished. He got a bucket of chicken and a 24 pack of Jolt Cola and then drove the Wolves to the playoffs at 85 miles per hour on icy roads. The next 24-36 months might be a little tough on the organization and on us fans.
The good:
1) KAT was #2 in the NBA in Win Shares, he played all 82 games. He made the all-star team and may make one of the top 3 all-NBA teams.
2) Jimmy Butler brought his 14 Win Shares to Minnesota, and, despite a slow start where he was trying to be a facilitator, he had an excellent season, marred only by a knee injury over the last 20 games of the year. Butler was named to the all-star team and has an outside shot at 3rd team all-NBA.
3) Taj Gibson shocked me (and I presume pretty much everyone) by having his best overall season ever as a pro. Despite being 32 years old, Taj had career bests in FG% (by 5%), FT%, steals, minutes played, VORP, total WS, True Shooting %,, etc. And he provided veteran leadership, post scoring, and toughness.
4) Jeff Teague, Tyus Jones and Nemanja Bjelica each had up and down years, but more up than down as they all contributed good play and had a WS/48 around .100 for each guy. If you have two big hitters like KAT and Butler and can supplement with .100 guys, that is a very good thing.
The Bad:
5) Gorgui Dieng lost minutes to Taj, and had many stretches where he was downright awful. While overall his Advanced Stats fit into the Tyus-Teague-Bjeli group, Gorgui carries a $60M price tage for this year and the next 3. Tyus and Bjeli make next to nothing. You have to putplay those guys to justify your monster salary.
6) Jamal Crawford had a regular season ORtg-DRtg of 104-116, and in the playoffs went to a slightly "better" 110-117. He presented the Wolves with a high-volume, low-efficiency player, which they really had no need for since they already had......
7) Andrew Wiggins. ORtg 101, DRtg 113 (Net Rating negative 12, the same as Crawford). He placed 1st on the team in minutes played but yet was 8th on the team in Win Shares. 8th. Tyus Jones had 75% more Win Shares than Wiggy and played at a per minute efficiency equal to 350% of Wiggy. Tyus did not play 1/2 of Wiggy's minutes.
Wiggins posted the following lows or almost lows for his career (he has played 4 years):
FG% - next to worst by .001
Assists (tie)
PPG - next to worst
Offensive rating - worst
PER - worst
OWS - worst by a factor of 4X
WS - tied for worst
WS/48 - tied for worst
Offensive Box Plus-Minus - worst by a factor of 2.
VORP - second worst.
Wiggins became the second Wolf veteran (4th year or later) to ever play 2,800+ minutes and yet record 2.5 or fewer Win Shares (2.1). Chuck Person in 1992-93 played nearly 3,000 minutes for the Wolves and had 0.0 Win Shares. So, Wiggy at least was not the worst ever Wolf. He is due $150M over the next 5 years, seems high for a guy who is basically playing at the level of Fred Carter.
8) Signing Derrick Rose - Why? You have a team that is struggling to make the playoffs, you have a roster that could really use all of the following: 1) huge big guy, 2) three point spot up shooter; 3) defensive stopper. You sign a gunning point guard who basically goes one-on-one every possession and never runs the offense. Laying to one side his off the court antics (all of which are awful), this is a very bad addition. Including those antics, this is an unforgiveable decision.
The Ugly
9) Thibodeau did basically as bad of a job coaching the Timberwolves as could possibly be done.
Some example:
-- The NBA game has moved to a 3 pointer game, yet the Wolves shoot almost no threes and are terrible at defending the three. The Wolves do not design their offense to get threes or design their defense to stop threes. It is almost a willful negligence by Thibs, as he states at times, "I know we have to shoot more threes" yet designs nothing to get threes and signs guys like Derrick Rose who are non-shooters (7-30 on regular season threes).
-- Here are a few examples of player strengths and weaknesses that Thibs does not emphasize/protect.
KAT is not a big inside shotblocking center. He is slightly built and around 6'9.75" in bare feet. He is actually VERY good at switching onto smaller players on the perimeter and challenging their shots. So Thibs a) does not play KAT with a bigger center; b) plays a defense that encourages KAT to fall back into the paint; and c) leaves KAT as the sole defender at the rim. Thibs also does not trap or hedge hard on pick and roll situations, so players regularly charge hard into the lane where KAT is the last defender at the rim - again, a skill set he does not have.
KAT is also a Bird/Nowitzki level shooter. He is 6th on the club in shots per minute.
Tyus Jones - Tyus's two primary skills are that he never makes a mistake running the offense and he is an excellent team defender. Tyus playing with the starters had a ridiculously good Net Rating (over +10). So, you'd figure that Tyus would play 7-10 minutes with the starters every game and run the offense with the ball in his hands. You'd also figure that when he played with the bench he would run the offense. What did Thibs do? He played Tyus almost exclusively with the bench, had Tyus dribble to halfcourt, then hand the ball to Crawford, then go stand in the corner as Crawford dribbled 23 times and took a closely guarded two.
This decision basically negated the skill set of two players. Crawford at his current age is still an excellent open jump shooter. He is no longer excellent at getting open shots. He concentrates almost not at all on getting the ball to others. (He actually is a good passer, but every play is designed for him to try to shoot). What you end up with is Crawford being used sub-optimally and Tyus being used almost not at all. Tyus's season for a small guard was so unusual that it is one of only 11 such seasons in 35 years. http://bkref.com/tiny/vr6YN
So, KAT is Dirk Nowitzki and Thibs plays him as Pau Gasol. Tyus is basically Darren Collison and Thibs plays him in the role of Steve Kerr.
Crawford - Crawford is in his 18th year, he is a low-efficiency and high volume shooter who can actually help a team if you play him off the ball. So he can be JJ Redick. Instead, Thibs views him as James Harden or LeBron James.
Now, Wiggy? I don't know if you can really blame Thibs for how shitty Wiggy is. But he DID sign him to a max deal. So if you sign a guy to a max deal, you need to figure out how you can play him that emphasizes his few strengths and hides his weaknesses. Otherwise, don't sign him. So, how does Thibs play him? Well, he runs a little isolation for him, he sometimes runs him into the post, and.........that is about it. If you watched Wiggy through 35 games with Flip and at Kansas and with the Canadian National Team, you quickly learn this - if you let him sit and do nothing, he will sit and do nothing. Wiggy makes Nick Batum's activity level look like Corey Brewer's or a playoff LeBron James's.
If you are going to have Wiggy as a highly paid player (which is an effing disaster, but let's pretend you weren't involved in setting the fire and are just cleaning up the ashes) you need to involve him in running out and cutting, and getting screens set for him and driving to the hoop wildly. You have to tell him that if he keeps shooting awful 2s he will be benched. On D, he has to guard the best guy. Why? Cuz he has no concept of team defense, never helps, and will not help the helper or rebound. So, look at the top three or 4 small guys and have Wiggy guard the one most likely to run dribble isolation.
Thibs, remarkably, has Wiggy stand off the ball. If you are going to do that, I would literally be a better player for you than Wiggy. I can hit an open three. I will run in and see if I can get a rebound. I will sprint back on defense. Wiggy will do NONE of those. Do you know how hard it is to be a young 6'8" player who plays 2,600 minutes a year and cannot get either 3 assists or 5 rebounds a game? It is REALLY REALLY hard. http://bkref.com/tiny/zb2jS yet Wiggy does it EVERY SINGLE YEAR!!!
So - if you as President of Basketball Operations have decided that you are going to ruin the franchise by signing the guy, you have to force feed him the ball. You have no choice. Instead, Thibs treats Wiggy like he is Chris Bosh (he is going to get rebounds, make open shots when he gets them, make the most of his few opportunities). Wiggy AT BEST is Demar DeRozan or Carmelo Anthony. He needs 20+ shots a game to provide you with any benefit.
Jeff Teague -- wants to play 28-30 MPG, wants to play some off the ball with Tyus (note a common theme that all Wolves want to play with Tyus as the primary distributor). How do I know? That is what Teague says to the press. Yet Teague (a guy who likes to run and who makes VEEEEEEERY slow decisions in the half court and who is terrible at feeding the post) is used by Thibs to feed the post and to get out of the way when Jimmy Butler handles the ball.
Jimmy Butler - even though he likes to (and gets to) play hero ball in the 4th, what Butler really needs is a coach who recognizes when to rest him (like up or down 20 in the 4th) and who recognizes when an opponent is just lighting up Jimmy defensively. There are a lot of guys who Jimmy can guard (Westbrook for one, LeBron for another). But he struggles with some other guys (Dion Waiters comes to mind). Get him OFF those guys and let Wiggy guard them. Thibs refuses to recognize that some nights Jimmy does not have it on D.
Nemanja Bjelica - should get 6 three attempts per game. Thibs never plays him.
Cole Aldrich - Never plays. Look, I am not saying he is a first-team all-NBA candidate, but you signed him to 3 years and $22M, he is an adequate backup center who can go use 4-5 fouls a game on monsters like Embiid and Whiteside and maybe give KAT a 10-12 minute respite. Play him.
So - the "Ugly" with the Wolves is the coaching situation. They play an outdated style of ball, are (for no good reason) one of the worst defensive teams in the league, and their coach seems content to have that continue.
Thibs also seems to believe that HE is never responsible for any adjustments. His constant reply to the media about losses? "Guys just have to play harder."
Your JOB as a coach is to HELP your team win games. To say that you will not try something new means you will not try to effectively do your job. That is a really shocking admission by any employee. As I have said, if someone told me that when I wear green tights my team wins by 10-12 points every game, I'd be wearing green tights. Tyus with the starters this year was +10-12 on the average. To REFUSE to keep going for a little bit each game is insane. Playing Wiggy 2900 minutes (basically the same as LeBron James) when his WS/48 is .030 is inexcusable. It just is. I am sorry - the lesson there is that no matter how badly you suck, I am going to play you. What incentive does that give Wiggy to play better? None. Similarly, Marcus Georges-Hunt actually had some good moments; banished to the pine.
In short, Thibs took a team that added a 14 WS player and a 7 WS player, gave up basically nothing in return and he improved by 16 wins. Congrats. That is about as badly as you could possibly have done.
Am I, as a 29 year Timberwolves Season Ticket Holder, happy they won 47 games and made the playoffs? Of course. The #1 reason being that the streak had rendered the club a laughingstock. When you are mentioned in the same breath as the Cleveland Browns, it is bad. You need to get off that list. But - had we been able to 1) emphasize our strengths; 2) de-emphasize our weaknesses; 3) take away the opponent's 3 point shooting; and 4) adjust for our opponents, it could have been so much better.
I fear that the attitude in the organization will be "let's allow Thibs to be Thibs" and not ask for a more reasonable approach to the game of basketball. Already we hear rumors that Derrick Rose could be signed to a 4 year $25M contract. Why!?!?!? His last 3-5 seasons should tell you that he is not a good player and cannot be a good player on a winning team. Will 5 playoff games where he played off guard and shot 70% from 3 overcome the fact that he is a career 25% three point shooter? Is he going to be a bench off guard? Really?
So - anyway, we made the playoffs and I should be very happy. I really am not.
I used to drive home to Upstate NY from North Carolina and from Minnesota. It would be 15-20 hours of driving. Sometimes I drove straight through. I knew that when I got there, I would be glad that I had arrived, but as I got older I realized that what I had just done (while achieving my goal) would ruin me for 24-36 hours. That is what Thibs just accomplished. He got a bucket of chicken and a 24 pack of Jolt Cola and then drove the Wolves to the playoffs at 85 miles per hour on icy roads. The next 24-36 months might be a little tough on the organization and on us fans.
Thursday, April 26, 2018
My Top 18 NBA/ABA Players of All-Time; Some Prep
In alphabetical order:
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Larry Bird
Kobe Bryant
Wilt Chamberlain
Tim Duncan
LeBron James
Magic Johnson
Michael Jordan
Karl Malone
Moses Malone
George Mikan
Hakeem Olajuwon
Shaquille O'Neal
Bob Pettit
Oscar Robertson
David Robinson
Bill Russell
Jerry West
These 18 gentlemen have combined for 150 First-team All-NBA (or BAA) awards and 44 MVP Awards. And those figures do not give George Mikan any credit for his play during an era where there was no MVP awarded but he was named in surveys as the #1 player in the history of basketball. You could argue for 5 MVPs for Mikan.
As I boil it down from 18 to 1, I know I will create some very hard feelings from player fans. Please note - I started with 140 guys. I do not believe that any of my top 18 "suck" as in "oh, sure, he just sucks, why didn't his team just release him!?!?" OK, the fact that a guy ESPN may rank as #5 is ranked #12 by me does not mean I believe he is a terrible player. He is one of the greatest 18 players to ever play the game. It is generally my belief that my top 4 guys are by far the best players ever. I don't think that there is a fair assessment of players' careers from which to argue otherwise. I also believe that groupings 5-13 and 14-18 are highly arguable, but only within that particular grouping. So, if a guy is ranked 12, he could make an argument for 5. If a guy is ranked 14, he could drop to 18. With that said, we will get to work and see if we can finish late April or early May.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Larry Bird
Kobe Bryant
Wilt Chamberlain
Tim Duncan
LeBron James
Magic Johnson
Michael Jordan
Karl Malone
Moses Malone
George Mikan
Hakeem Olajuwon
Shaquille O'Neal
Bob Pettit
Oscar Robertson
David Robinson
Bill Russell
Jerry West
These 18 gentlemen have combined for 150 First-team All-NBA (or BAA) awards and 44 MVP Awards. And those figures do not give George Mikan any credit for his play during an era where there was no MVP awarded but he was named in surveys as the #1 player in the history of basketball. You could argue for 5 MVPs for Mikan.
As I boil it down from 18 to 1, I know I will create some very hard feelings from player fans. Please note - I started with 140 guys. I do not believe that any of my top 18 "suck" as in "oh, sure, he just sucks, why didn't his team just release him!?!?" OK, the fact that a guy ESPN may rank as #5 is ranked #12 by me does not mean I believe he is a terrible player. He is one of the greatest 18 players to ever play the game. It is generally my belief that my top 4 guys are by far the best players ever. I don't think that there is a fair assessment of players' careers from which to argue otherwise. I also believe that groupings 5-13 and 14-18 are highly arguable, but only within that particular grouping. So, if a guy is ranked 12, he could make an argument for 5. If a guy is ranked 14, he could drop to 18. With that said, we will get to work and see if we can finish late April or early May.
Wednesday, April 25, 2018
Ranking the All-Time Greats, April 2018 Edition -- ##24-19
24. Elgin Baylor -- now, Baylor is #3 all-time in points per game and #10 all-time in rebounds per game. Baylor also had 10 healthy seasons and was 10X first-team all-NBA. Baylor never won an MVP, but was recognized 8X as a top 6 MVP candidate. Against this backdrop, why is he way down here at #24? Well, 0 MVP, 0 titles, struggled to stay on the court (846 career games), and his Win Shares and WS/48 numbers are by far the worst of the Final 24 (last in WS, last in playoff WS/48, last in 10 Win Share seasons (only had 3)). Great, great player, but he is dropped off at #24.
23. Dirk Nowitzki -- Nowitzki lacks the first-team all-NBA honors of those ranked higher (4x first-team) but he has 12 all-NBA designations total, and his Win Shares, WS/48, VORP and raw numbers (6th in points, 28th in rebounds) all say "top 15 player." I deduct some from Dirk as follows -- only 1 MVP, 27th in MVP Award Shares, poor defender, not a great rebounder, not a great passer. He was a great, great shooter and scorer, incredibly efficient and won a title. Deserving of consideration for a higher spot, which I considered, and which I have now rejected.
22. Kevin Durant - No, it is not "too soon." He has played 11 seasons in the NBA. He has an MVP (and 3 second place finishes), a Finals MVP, a title, 5 or 6 first-team all-NBAs (depending upon this year). He has 130 WS - more than Mikan or Baylor and 15 less than Bird and 25 less than Magic. Arguably, he could be rated higher than KG or Barkley. But those two guys also had an MVP and played far longer and played at a quality level that was very similar to Durant, so they still enjoy the edge over KD for this 2018 survey. By 2021, if Durant can add an MVP and a few first-team all-NBAs, he may be up there around Bird.
21. Kevin Garnett -- If you ignore his "all-rookie" designation, KG is 21X all-NBA:9X some sort of all-NBA, and 12X some sort of all-defense. He was Defensive Player of the Year, and that occurred in Boston, when he was roughly 75% of the player he was in Minnesota. He was 2003-04 MVP. KG's longevity was amazing, as is demonstrated by his 9th in WS. 4th in VORP, 20th in points and 10th in rebounds. Drawbacks? Only 4X first-team all-NBA and 17th in MVP Award Shares, WS/48 in regular season and playoffs -- not so great (as in, not worthy of top 24 status). Truly "great" for 9 seasons. Could be placed higher, could be placed lower. I love KG, but I think 21 is about as far as I can push.
20. Charles Barkley -- There will always be the ZERO titles. Also, only 5x first team all-NBA. Only 21st in MVP Award Shares. But if you review raw stats (20th in rebounds, 31st in points) and also WS (16th) and VORP (5th) and WS/48 (.216 regular season .193 playoffs) 10 Win Share Seasons (10X), Barkley was a statistical monster. Had he just won 1 more MVP or even one title, he could make a claim to be much higher. Never made an all-defensive team, and certainly no one ever suggested that he should. But still gets a barely-there edge on KG for #20.
19. Julius Erving -- Julius Erving is the most difficult person to evaluate on the entire list. If you give him 100% credit for his ABA days, he is a top 12 player. If you give him no credit, he probably is not even a top 50 all-time player. Is he a 4X MVP or a 1X MVP? Is he 13th in career WS or 68th? Is he 9th in career VORP or 29th? Is he 8th in career points, or 67th? I will give him some, but not all, credit for his ABA stats. His 18 WS pace in the ABA certainly never carried over to the NBA. He never was a super wonderful playoff performer outside of the ABA either. Still, he was NBA MVP and had 5 excellent NBA seasons. Was 5X first-team all-NBA and 4X all-ABA. I will put him here.
23. Dirk Nowitzki -- Nowitzki lacks the first-team all-NBA honors of those ranked higher (4x first-team) but he has 12 all-NBA designations total, and his Win Shares, WS/48, VORP and raw numbers (6th in points, 28th in rebounds) all say "top 15 player." I deduct some from Dirk as follows -- only 1 MVP, 27th in MVP Award Shares, poor defender, not a great rebounder, not a great passer. He was a great, great shooter and scorer, incredibly efficient and won a title. Deserving of consideration for a higher spot, which I considered, and which I have now rejected.
22. Kevin Durant - No, it is not "too soon." He has played 11 seasons in the NBA. He has an MVP (and 3 second place finishes), a Finals MVP, a title, 5 or 6 first-team all-NBAs (depending upon this year). He has 130 WS - more than Mikan or Baylor and 15 less than Bird and 25 less than Magic. Arguably, he could be rated higher than KG or Barkley. But those two guys also had an MVP and played far longer and played at a quality level that was very similar to Durant, so they still enjoy the edge over KD for this 2018 survey. By 2021, if Durant can add an MVP and a few first-team all-NBAs, he may be up there around Bird.
21. Kevin Garnett -- If you ignore his "all-rookie" designation, KG is 21X all-NBA:9X some sort of all-NBA, and 12X some sort of all-defense. He was Defensive Player of the Year, and that occurred in Boston, when he was roughly 75% of the player he was in Minnesota. He was 2003-04 MVP. KG's longevity was amazing, as is demonstrated by his 9th in WS. 4th in VORP, 20th in points and 10th in rebounds. Drawbacks? Only 4X first-team all-NBA and 17th in MVP Award Shares, WS/48 in regular season and playoffs -- not so great (as in, not worthy of top 24 status). Truly "great" for 9 seasons. Could be placed higher, could be placed lower. I love KG, but I think 21 is about as far as I can push.
20. Charles Barkley -- There will always be the ZERO titles. Also, only 5x first team all-NBA. Only 21st in MVP Award Shares. But if you review raw stats (20th in rebounds, 31st in points) and also WS (16th) and VORP (5th) and WS/48 (.216 regular season .193 playoffs) 10 Win Share Seasons (10X), Barkley was a statistical monster. Had he just won 1 more MVP or even one title, he could make a claim to be much higher. Never made an all-defensive team, and certainly no one ever suggested that he should. But still gets a barely-there edge on KG for #20.
19. Julius Erving -- Julius Erving is the most difficult person to evaluate on the entire list. If you give him 100% credit for his ABA days, he is a top 12 player. If you give him no credit, he probably is not even a top 50 all-time player. Is he a 4X MVP or a 1X MVP? Is he 13th in career WS or 68th? Is he 9th in career VORP or 29th? Is he 8th in career points, or 67th? I will give him some, but not all, credit for his ABA stats. His 18 WS pace in the ABA certainly never carried over to the NBA. He never was a super wonderful playoff performer outside of the ABA either. Still, he was NBA MVP and had 5 excellent NBA seasons. Was 5X first-team all-NBA and 4X all-ABA. I will put him here.
Ranking the All-Time NBA Greats, 2018 Version, ##29-25
We have 29 guys left to rank.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Charles Barkley
Rick Barry
Elgin Baylor
Larry Bird
Kobe Bryant
Wilt Chamberlain
Tim Duncan
Kevin Durant
Julius Erving
Kevin Garnett
John Havlicek
LeBron James
Magic Johnson
Michael Jordan
Karl Malone
Moses Malone
George Mikan
Dirk Nowitzki
Hakeem Olajuwon
Shaquille O'Neal
Chris Paul
Bob Pettit
Scottie Pippen
Oscar Robertson
David Robinson
Bill Russell
John Stockton
Jerry West
I think this stretch is actually pretty easy to rank "as a group." Havlicek and Pippen are clearly the "worst" having few all-NBAs and no MVPs and not exactly soaring up the WS or WS/48 or other leaderboards. So, I will go with
29. Scottie Pippen - 3X all-NBA, 0 MVPs, many all-defense awards, 6 titles. In "MVP Award Shares" he is 57th, but he was the clear cut #2 guy on 6 title teams. You simply cannot deny that. (Like Harden, Scottie is a guy who I really do not care for, but as Charlie Daniels would say "You play pretty good fiddle boy, but give the Devil his due").
28. John Havlicek - 4X all-NBA, 8 titles. As this analysis shows: https://hoopramblings.blogspot.com/2015/07/nbas-greatest-all-around-players-james.html Havlicek is one of the 4 most versatile players in the history of the game. He could rank far, far higher, but he is 89th in MVP Award Shares.
27. Chris Paul - I struggled with whether Chris Paul (4X all-NBA, 19th all-time in WS, #1 all-time in WS/48, many all-defense awards) should be #26, but at the end of the day his complete lack of team success makes it impossible to push him any higher. Plus - on the court, he can really be quite a dick, so if I have a "personal privilege" to push him up or down, he is going to go down. After all, it is my list, and Chris Paul fans can feel free to make their own lists.
26. John Stockton - Stockton is a really odd case. #1 all-time in assists, was a good defender, team was always 50+ wins, went to the Finals twice. HUGE numbers on WS, WS/48, PER, VORP. He was a great player for 15 years (had 15 seasons with 7.95 or more WS!!! this ties him with Tim Duncan for 3rd most, trailing only Karl Malone and Kareem). But despite getting MVP votes in 12 seasons, he never finished above 7th. His MVP Award Shares ranks him 102nd all-time, by FAR the worst of anyone ranked this high. So, is being the 7th-15th best player in the league for 15 years admirable? Yes. And it gets him above Chris Paul, but no farther.
25. Rick Barry -- now, I must concede that I have a soft spot for Rick Barry, A lot of people hate the guy and he was viewed as a bad announcer and (at times) a bad dad. And if you look at his Advanced Stats he is certainly no match for John Stockton or Chris Paul. So, what gives? Well, Barry was 9X all-NBA or all-ABA. If your reply is "the ABA sucks" you should immediately note that Barry was 2x all-NBA before he jumped to the ABA. In the 1967 playoffs he averaged, over 15 games, 35-7-4. He had several seasons with over 6 assists a game, he led the league in steals per game, he was the Finals MVP leading his team to a sweep of the Bullets. Barry averaged 27 PPG in the playoffs - 34 in the ABA, 25 in the NBA.
Barry also missed 1 1/2 seasons when he tried to jump to the ABA and was banned from playing in the ABA (he refused to go back to the NBA). When he returned, in 35 games he put up 8.5 WS and a WS/48 of .301, making him 1 of only 6 guys to ever have a 1,300 minute season with a WS/48 of over .3 http://bkref.com/tiny/Qt8V7 (Kareem, Wilt, Jordan, LeBron, Curry, Rick Barry). Only 4 guys have more 30+ ppg playoffs than Barry http://bkref.com/tiny/TsgEr (Kobe, LeBron, West and Jordan).
So - it may be an unpopular opinion, but I am putting Rick Barry at #25.
Your top 24 in alphabetical order: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Charles Barkley, Elgin Baylor, Larry Bird, Kobe Bryant, Wilt Chamberlain, Tim Duncan, Kevin Durant, Julius Erving, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Karl Malone, Moses Malone, George Mikan, Dirk Nowitzki,
Hakeem Olajuwon. Shaquille O'Neal,, Bob Pettit, Oscar Robertson, David Robinson, Bill Russell, Jerry West.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Charles Barkley
Rick Barry
Elgin Baylor
Larry Bird
Kobe Bryant
Wilt Chamberlain
Tim Duncan
Kevin Durant
Julius Erving
Kevin Garnett
John Havlicek
LeBron James
Magic Johnson
Michael Jordan
Karl Malone
Moses Malone
George Mikan
Dirk Nowitzki
Hakeem Olajuwon
Shaquille O'Neal
Chris Paul
Bob Pettit
Scottie Pippen
Oscar Robertson
David Robinson
Bill Russell
John Stockton
Jerry West
I think this stretch is actually pretty easy to rank "as a group." Havlicek and Pippen are clearly the "worst" having few all-NBAs and no MVPs and not exactly soaring up the WS or WS/48 or other leaderboards. So, I will go with
29. Scottie Pippen - 3X all-NBA, 0 MVPs, many all-defense awards, 6 titles. In "MVP Award Shares" he is 57th, but he was the clear cut #2 guy on 6 title teams. You simply cannot deny that. (Like Harden, Scottie is a guy who I really do not care for, but as Charlie Daniels would say "You play pretty good fiddle boy, but give the Devil his due").
28. John Havlicek - 4X all-NBA, 8 titles. As this analysis shows: https://hoopramblings.blogspot.com/2015/07/nbas-greatest-all-around-players-james.html Havlicek is one of the 4 most versatile players in the history of the game. He could rank far, far higher, but he is 89th in MVP Award Shares.
27. Chris Paul - I struggled with whether Chris Paul (4X all-NBA, 19th all-time in WS, #1 all-time in WS/48, many all-defense awards) should be #26, but at the end of the day his complete lack of team success makes it impossible to push him any higher. Plus - on the court, he can really be quite a dick, so if I have a "personal privilege" to push him up or down, he is going to go down. After all, it is my list, and Chris Paul fans can feel free to make their own lists.
26. John Stockton - Stockton is a really odd case. #1 all-time in assists, was a good defender, team was always 50+ wins, went to the Finals twice. HUGE numbers on WS, WS/48, PER, VORP. He was a great player for 15 years (had 15 seasons with 7.95 or more WS!!! this ties him with Tim Duncan for 3rd most, trailing only Karl Malone and Kareem). But despite getting MVP votes in 12 seasons, he never finished above 7th. His MVP Award Shares ranks him 102nd all-time, by FAR the worst of anyone ranked this high. So, is being the 7th-15th best player in the league for 15 years admirable? Yes. And it gets him above Chris Paul, but no farther.
25. Rick Barry -- now, I must concede that I have a soft spot for Rick Barry, A lot of people hate the guy and he was viewed as a bad announcer and (at times) a bad dad. And if you look at his Advanced Stats he is certainly no match for John Stockton or Chris Paul. So, what gives? Well, Barry was 9X all-NBA or all-ABA. If your reply is "the ABA sucks" you should immediately note that Barry was 2x all-NBA before he jumped to the ABA. In the 1967 playoffs he averaged, over 15 games, 35-7-4. He had several seasons with over 6 assists a game, he led the league in steals per game, he was the Finals MVP leading his team to a sweep of the Bullets. Barry averaged 27 PPG in the playoffs - 34 in the ABA, 25 in the NBA.
Barry also missed 1 1/2 seasons when he tried to jump to the ABA and was banned from playing in the ABA (he refused to go back to the NBA). When he returned, in 35 games he put up 8.5 WS and a WS/48 of .301, making him 1 of only 6 guys to ever have a 1,300 minute season with a WS/48 of over .3 http://bkref.com/tiny/Qt8V7 (Kareem, Wilt, Jordan, LeBron, Curry, Rick Barry). Only 4 guys have more 30+ ppg playoffs than Barry http://bkref.com/tiny/TsgEr (Kobe, LeBron, West and Jordan).
So - it may be an unpopular opinion, but I am putting Rick Barry at #25.
Your top 24 in alphabetical order: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Charles Barkley, Elgin Baylor, Larry Bird, Kobe Bryant, Wilt Chamberlain, Tim Duncan, Kevin Durant, Julius Erving, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Karl Malone, Moses Malone, George Mikan, Dirk Nowitzki,
Hakeem Olajuwon. Shaquille O'Neal,, Bob Pettit, Oscar Robertson, David Robinson, Bill Russell, Jerry West.
Tuesday, April 24, 2018
Ranking the all-time greats, ##36-30
36. James Harden -- Harden will be this year's MVP, and he has cleared 100 Win Shares on his career. His teams have reached the Finals, the Conference Finals three times, and who knows what else this year. His whiny and flopping style is unbearable to watch, but there is a very good argument that he has TWICE been screwed for MVP and will win this year. But for the fact that his style of play is so easy to hate, he could be one of the few guys in NBA history with 3 MVPs!!!
35. Stephon Curry -- Curry has his 2 MVP's and has been the great leader of a great team. There is an argument that Harden's actual career for advanced stats has been better, however, if you look into NBA history and say "who dominated the league for 2-3 years both individually and his team also" there are not many of those guys, so we will give the mouthpiece-gnawing Curry the nod here.
34. Steve Nash -- a good argument could be made for keeping him off the list entirely, but he has 2 MVPs and a #2 vote, has one more all-NBA than Curry and he played longer so he has significantly more WS than Curry. I'll drop him off here.
33. Gary Payton - another guys just getting on, but he has 145 WS and 9 all-defense awards to prop up his candidacy. Interestingly, he places on the list next to Nash, who was superior offensively, but also one of the worst defenders in NBA history. Give him the nod over Nash for better WS and defense.
32. Patrick Ewing -- His candidacy has some flaws (one first-team all-NBA, no titles, no MVPs), but recall that Ewing played against Kareem and Moses Malone and Hakeem and David Robinson and Shaq. That is Ewing's peer group. And yet he is 6X Second-team all-NBA and 1X First-team. Just a tad overrated, but a great player nonetheless. If you look for his career averages of 21-9.8 and 2 blocks or better, you get a pretty impressive peer group: http://bkref.com/tiny/6yJjV
31. Dwyane Wade - I ranked Wade as top 36 in 2015, and I sort of regret that in hindsight. In the three seasons since April 2015, Wade has TOTALED 3 Win Shares, and his poor play has dragged down his generally great stats from earlier in his career. That said, he has three titles, he has 2 first-team all-NBA's, he has a Finals MVP, he was a far above average defender (up through 2013-14 he had over 2 steals+blocks every single year, as an off guard)! Wade is #15 all-time in PER (ahead of Karl Malone and Steph Curry, two spots behind Magic Johnson), #23 in Box Plus-Minus, #26 in career VORP. He still gets in, and #31 is about right.
30. Bob Cousy -- I left Cousy out in 2015. In reviewing the list of available guys this year, I had to concede that someone who has 6 titles, an MVP, and 10 First-team All-NBA awards just has too good of a resume to be left off. And he should probably place higher than #36. Cousy's primary drawbacks are that he played a million years ago and that his Win Shares and WS/48 are terrible. So how do I put him "in" when I keep out huge "eye test" guys like Iverson and Isiah and huge Win Share guys like Reggie Miller and Artis Gilmore? Well, imagine if Steve Nash had 10 first-team All-NBAs and 6 titles. Or if John Stockton had 6 titles and 10X first-team. I'd have those guys top 12. So, how can I deny Cousy ANY place at all on the list just because I don't think he is such a great player based upon his advanced stats? I mean, the guys who actually watched him play voted for him every year, and he was the PG on a great title team. What else, really, is there? I mean, we play the game for recognition and to win. So, I guess the time for my boycott of Bob Cousy is at an end (but I am still grouping him down here).
35. Stephon Curry -- Curry has his 2 MVP's and has been the great leader of a great team. There is an argument that Harden's actual career for advanced stats has been better, however, if you look into NBA history and say "who dominated the league for 2-3 years both individually and his team also" there are not many of those guys, so we will give the mouthpiece-gnawing Curry the nod here.
34. Steve Nash -- a good argument could be made for keeping him off the list entirely, but he has 2 MVPs and a #2 vote, has one more all-NBA than Curry and he played longer so he has significantly more WS than Curry. I'll drop him off here.
33. Gary Payton - another guys just getting on, but he has 145 WS and 9 all-defense awards to prop up his candidacy. Interestingly, he places on the list next to Nash, who was superior offensively, but also one of the worst defenders in NBA history. Give him the nod over Nash for better WS and defense.
32. Patrick Ewing -- His candidacy has some flaws (one first-team all-NBA, no titles, no MVPs), but recall that Ewing played against Kareem and Moses Malone and Hakeem and David Robinson and Shaq. That is Ewing's peer group. And yet he is 6X Second-team all-NBA and 1X First-team. Just a tad overrated, but a great player nonetheless. If you look for his career averages of 21-9.8 and 2 blocks or better, you get a pretty impressive peer group: http://bkref.com/tiny/6yJjV
31. Dwyane Wade - I ranked Wade as top 36 in 2015, and I sort of regret that in hindsight. In the three seasons since April 2015, Wade has TOTALED 3 Win Shares, and his poor play has dragged down his generally great stats from earlier in his career. That said, he has three titles, he has 2 first-team all-NBA's, he has a Finals MVP, he was a far above average defender (up through 2013-14 he had over 2 steals+blocks every single year, as an off guard)! Wade is #15 all-time in PER (ahead of Karl Malone and Steph Curry, two spots behind Magic Johnson), #23 in Box Plus-Minus, #26 in career VORP. He still gets in, and #31 is about right.
30. Bob Cousy -- I left Cousy out in 2015. In reviewing the list of available guys this year, I had to concede that someone who has 6 titles, an MVP, and 10 First-team All-NBA awards just has too good of a resume to be left off. And he should probably place higher than #36. Cousy's primary drawbacks are that he played a million years ago and that his Win Shares and WS/48 are terrible. So how do I put him "in" when I keep out huge "eye test" guys like Iverson and Isiah and huge Win Share guys like Reggie Miller and Artis Gilmore? Well, imagine if Steve Nash had 10 first-team All-NBAs and 6 titles. Or if John Stockton had 6 titles and 10X first-team. I'd have those guys top 12. So, how can I deny Cousy ANY place at all on the list just because I don't think he is such a great player based upon his advanced stats? I mean, the guys who actually watched him play voted for him every year, and he was the PG on a great title team. What else, really, is there? I mean, we play the game for recognition and to win. So, I guess the time for my boycott of Bob Cousy is at an end (but I am still grouping him down here).
Monday, April 23, 2018
The top 36 NBA players of all-time, in alphabetical order (April 2018 Edition).
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Charles Barkley
Rick Barry
Elgin Baylor
Larry Bird
Kobe Bryant
Wilt Chamberlain
Bob Cousy
Stephon Curry
Tim Duncan
Kevin Durant
Julius Erving
Patrick Ewing
Kevin Garnett
James Harden
John Havlicek
LeBron James
Magic Johnson
Michael Jordan
Karl Malone
Moses Malone
George Mikan
Steve Nash
Dirk Nowitzki
Hakeem Olajuwon
Shaquille O'Neal
Chris Paul
Gary Payton
Bob Pettit
Scottie Pippen
Oscar Robertson
David Robinson
Bill Russell
John Stockton
Dwyane Wade
Jerry West
Charles Barkley
Rick Barry
Elgin Baylor
Larry Bird
Kobe Bryant
Wilt Chamberlain
Bob Cousy
Stephon Curry
Tim Duncan
Kevin Durant
Julius Erving
Patrick Ewing
Kevin Garnett
James Harden
John Havlicek
LeBron James
Magic Johnson
Michael Jordan
Karl Malone
Moses Malone
George Mikan
Steve Nash
Dirk Nowitzki
Hakeem Olajuwon
Shaquille O'Neal
Chris Paul
Gary Payton
Bob Pettit
Scottie Pippen
Oscar Robertson
David Robinson
Bill Russell
John Stockton
Dwyane Wade
Jerry West
Searching for Guys 28-36 Is an Incredibly Tough Job, But It is Now Done.
I need to take this list of 19 guys and get down to 9 (drop 10 guys). Then we will have our 36 guys.
List
Ray Allen - 145 Win Shares, 0 First Team All-NBA, 0 MVPs, 2 titles
Bob Cousy - 91 WS, 10X, 1 MVP, 6 titles
Steph Curry - 93 WS, 2X, 2 MVP, 2 titles
Clyde Drexler - 136 WS, 1X, 0 MVP, 1 title
Walt Frazier - 136 WS, 1X, 0, 2 titles
George Gervin - 116 WS, 5X, 0 MVP, 0 titles
Artis Gilmore -- 190 WS, 4X, 1 MVP, 1 title
James Harden - 107 WS, 4X, 1 MVP (I will assume), 0 titles
John Havlicek - 132 WS, 4X, 0 MVP, 8 titles
Elvin Hayes - 121 WS, 3X, 0 MVP, 1 title
Neil Johnston - 92 WS, 4X, 0 MVP, 1 title
Jason Kidd - 139 WS, 5X, 0 MVP, 1 title
Reggie Miller - 174 WS, 0, 0, 0
Steve Nash - 130 WS, 3X, 2 MVP, 0 titles
Gary Payton -- 146 WS, 2X, 0 MVP, 1 title
Scottie Pippen - 125 WS, 3X, 0 MVP, 6 titles
Dolph Schayes - 142 WS, 6X, 0 MVP, 1 title
Steph Curry - 93 WS, 2X, 2 MVP, 2 titles
Clyde Drexler - 136 WS, 1X, 0 MVP, 1 title
Walt Frazier - 136 WS, 1X, 0, 1 title
George Gervin - 116 WS, 5X, 0 MVP, 0 titles
James Harden - 107 WS, 4X, 1 MVP (I will assume), 0 titles
Jason Kidd - 139 WS, 5X, 0 MVP, 1 title
Gary Payton -- 146 WS, 2X, 0 MVP, 1 title
Dolph Schayes - 142 WS, 6X, 0 MVP, 1 title
James Harden - 107 WS, 4X, 1 MVP (I will assume), 0 titles -- you really cannot put Curry in and leave Harden off. Harden's style of play and attitude I find personally distasteful, but he has a very good argument that he should have won 2 MVPs, maybe 3. I do not see how you have a list with Curry on and Harden off unless you say Curry is 36 and Harden is 37. And I am unwilling to do that.
Gary Payton -- 146 WS, 2X, 0 MVP, 1 title - Payton makes it on. He led a team to the Finals, taking two games from Jordan. He is 9X 1st-2nd-3rd team All-NBA and 9X First team all-defense. He was considered a top 6 player in the league 6X (Kidd 2, Drexler 3). I think of the glut of great guards right around the cusp of "in" or "out" he gets in.
List
Ray Allen - 145 Win Shares, 0 First Team All-NBA, 0 MVPs, 2 titles
Bob Cousy - 91 WS, 10X, 1 MVP, 6 titles
Steph Curry - 93 WS, 2X, 2 MVP, 2 titles
Clyde Drexler - 136 WS, 1X, 0 MVP, 1 title
Patrick Ewing - 126 WS, 1X, 0, 0
Walt Frazier - 136 WS, 1X, 0, 2 titles
George Gervin - 116 WS, 5X, 0 MVP, 0 titles
Artis Gilmore -- 190 WS, 4X, 1 MVP, 1 title
James Harden - 107 WS, 4X, 1 MVP (I will assume), 0 titles
John Havlicek - 132 WS, 4X, 0 MVP, 8 titles
Elvin Hayes - 121 WS, 3X, 0 MVP, 1 title
Neil Johnston - 92 WS, 4X, 0 MVP, 1 title
Jason Kidd - 139 WS, 5X, 0 MVP, 1 title
Reggie Miller - 174 WS, 0, 0, 0
Steve Nash - 130 WS, 3X, 2 MVP, 0 titles
Gary Payton -- 146 WS, 2X, 0 MVP, 1 title
Scottie Pippen - 125 WS, 3X, 0 MVP, 6 titles
Dolph Schayes - 142 WS, 6X, 0 MVP, 1 title
Dwayne Wade - 118 WS, 2X, 0 MVP, 3 titles.
So, it is easier to try to "drop" guys than it is to put guys in, so.....OUT:
-- Neil Johnston is #5 all-time in WS/48. He led the league in WS for 5 straight years, won a title. Probably is the #1 most underrated player in NBA history. Nevertheless, his career was very short; he received virtually no MVP consideration from his peers, and he's next to last on the list in WS. Love you Neil, but I cannot keep you.
-- Elvin Hayes - while he played forever, he is in the lower 1/3 of the list in WS, really only had three super great years and I cannot see keeping him. Sorry, Elvin, you are #2 out.
-- Ray Allen made my list of 36 in 2015, but I just cannot see retaining him for 2018. I was wrong. While a great player who played a long time, he simply does not stack up across the board in all-NBA or MVP consideration and he never led a team to a title (3rd best guy on each title team).
-- Reggie Miller also must go from my 2015 list. Again, I was wrong. As a Win Shares guy, it PAINS me to do this, since he has more WS than Kobe. But there just isn't enough there to keep him on the list while other fall off.
-- Artis Gilmore - you cannot give ABA guys full credit for their ABA stats. I think that is particularly true when the ABA stats and the all-league honors do not carry over to the NBA. Love, love, love Gilmore, extremely underrated, but I just cannot pull the trigger when 75% of his success was in the ABA.
That leaves us with 14 guys for 9 spots. Now I am going to put 5 guys "IN":
I think you need to put in the guys who were key contributors to 3+ titles. I am sorry, but none of these guys is Robert Horry or Frank Ramsey who were sort of along for the ride. They were major, major players on title teams. So, I am keeping guys 28-31 as
Bob Cousy, John Havlicek, Scottie Pippen, and Dwyane Wade and.........
as guy #32, I am going to keep Steve Nash. He has 2 MVPs and a 2nd place finish. He has 23 more WS than Harden and 37 more than Curry. I do not believe that you can elevate the other guys on the list over him. I recognize that there are arguments to the contrary, but I want to seriously consider Harden and Curry, and I cannot do so without adding in Nash first.
So, we have 32 guys in. There are 4 spots left to grab by:
Steph Curry - 93 WS, 2X, 2 MVP, 2 titles
Clyde Drexler - 136 WS, 1X, 0 MVP, 1 title
Patrick Ewing - 126 WS, 1X, 0, 0
Walt Frazier - 136 WS, 1X, 0, 1 title
George Gervin - 116 WS, 5X, 0 MVP, 0 titles
James Harden - 107 WS, 4X, 1 MVP (I will assume), 0 titles
Jason Kidd - 139 WS, 5X, 0 MVP, 1 title
Gary Payton -- 146 WS, 2X, 0 MVP, 1 title
Dolph Schayes - 142 WS, 6X, 0 MVP, 1 title
DROPPING
I am going to drop another of my 2015 top 36 - Clyde Drexler. Clyde was great, but his MVP award shares are .778, which is not great, and his best voting results are 22-5-12-6-2-10-14. I just cannot put him in.
I am also going to drop Dolph Schayes -- while he was a great player, and had great Advanced Stats, he played 1,000 years ago and never was voted the best player in his league (5-4-2-6-8-8) and his MVP award shares are .730.
Jason Kidd stays off my list. Kidd has poor advanced stats and only had 2 years where he was top 5 in MVP balloting.
I just cannot pull the trigger on George Gervin. Iceman was a great player, great scorer, but his advanced stats are pretty mediocre and he had next to no playoff success. Certainly never a great defender, he basically became a one-end player as he got older.
Walt Frazier is a tough one to leave off since he was so good in the playoffs. His MVP award shares? 100th place. Like Dolph Schayes, he was a great player and all-NBA, but people didn't really ever consider him the best guy.
So, the last 4 spots go to
Steph Curry - 93 WS, 2X, 2 MVP, 2 titles - the combination of 2 MVPs and two titles is just enough to overcome the very short career and only 2 first-team All-NBAs. Golden State, led primarily by him, went to 3 Finals and won twice, winning 73 games the other year. It is hard to keep him off.
Patrick Ewing - 126 WS, 1X, 0, 0 -- Ewing's 1 All-NBA award is misleading, as he was a top 5 MVP candidate 6 times. So what that tells you is that Patrick was more a victim of who he played against (Hakeem, Robinson, Shaq) than were other players.
James Harden - 107 WS, 4X, 1 MVP (I will assume), 0 titles -- you really cannot put Curry in and leave Harden off. Harden's style of play and attitude I find personally distasteful, but he has a very good argument that he should have won 2 MVPs, maybe 3. I do not see how you have a list with Curry on and Harden off unless you say Curry is 36 and Harden is 37. And I am unwilling to do that.
Gary Payton -- 146 WS, 2X, 0 MVP, 1 title - Payton makes it on. He led a team to the Finals, taking two games from Jordan. He is 9X 1st-2nd-3rd team All-NBA and 9X First team all-defense. He was considered a top 6 player in the league 6X (Kidd 2, Drexler 3). I think of the glut of great guards right around the cusp of "in" or "out" he gets in.
This exercise yields 9 names:
Bob Cousy
John Havlicek
Scottie Pippen
Dwyane Wade
Steve Nash
Steph Curry
Patrick Ewing
James Harden
Gary Payton
Sunday, April 22, 2018
The Pool of 46 for my 2018 "Top 36" and an indicator of the Top 27 "locks"
With 10 guys eliminated in the last Blog entry, we now have 46 guys left. I deem 27 of those guys to be "absolute locks" such that no one in their right mind could keep them off the all-time NBA/ABA list of the Top 36 Players of All-Time. So, here are the 27 locks in alphabetical order.
Abdul-Jabbar, Barkley, Barry, Baylor, Bird, Bryant, Chamberlain, Duncan, Durant, Erving, Garnett, James, Magic Johnson, Jordan, Karl Malone, Moses Malone, Mikan, Nowitzki, Olajuwon, O'Neal, Paul, Pettit, Robertson, Robinson, Russell, Stockton, West.
There is, in my opinion, no reasonable argument that these 27 guys are not Top 36 overall. I mean, who is the absolute WORST guy on that list? Probably Rick Barry or Chris Paul. Rick Barry was NINE TIMES first-team in the league in which he played (5x all-NBA, 4x all-ABA). Chris Paul is 4x first-team all-NBA, 7x all-defense, 165 WS, #1 in the history of basketball in WS/48. So, yeah, those guys are all locks.
Here are the 19 guys fighting for the last 9 spots, so, when I return to this effort in the coming days, I will need to drop 10 of these guys and keep the other 9, then rank the entire 36:
Ray Allen
Bob Cousy
Steph Curry
Clyde Drexler
Abdul-Jabbar, Barkley, Barry, Baylor, Bird, Bryant, Chamberlain, Duncan, Durant, Erving, Garnett, James, Magic Johnson, Jordan, Karl Malone, Moses Malone, Mikan, Nowitzki, Olajuwon, O'Neal, Paul, Pettit, Robertson, Robinson, Russell, Stockton, West.
There is, in my opinion, no reasonable argument that these 27 guys are not Top 36 overall. I mean, who is the absolute WORST guy on that list? Probably Rick Barry or Chris Paul. Rick Barry was NINE TIMES first-team in the league in which he played (5x all-NBA, 4x all-ABA). Chris Paul is 4x first-team all-NBA, 7x all-defense, 165 WS, #1 in the history of basketball in WS/48. So, yeah, those guys are all locks.
Here are the 19 guys fighting for the last 9 spots, so, when I return to this effort in the coming days, I will need to drop 10 of these guys and keep the other 9, then rank the entire 36:
Ray Allen
Bob Cousy
Steph Curry
Clyde Drexler
Patrick Ewing
Walt Frazier
George Gervin
Artis Gilmore
James Harden
John Havlicek
Elvin Hayes
Neil Johnston
Jason Kidd
Reggie Miller
Steve Nash
Gary Payton
Scottie Pippen
Dolph Schayes
Walt Frazier
George Gervin
Artis Gilmore
James Harden
John Havlicek
Elvin Hayes
Neil Johnston
Jason Kidd
Reggie Miller
Steve Nash
Gary Payton
Scottie Pippen
Dolph Schayes
Dwayne Wade
It will not be easy.
Dropping 10 Guys Down to 46
56 Guys Left - Gotta Drop 10 to get down to 46. So, how? I will identify the weakest links from the list of 56. I have kept 27 guys where I just do not think there is even a fair argument to drop them out of the top 36. So, guys with weaknesses (expressed quickly):
2 Ray Allen - no first-team all-NBAs
9 Bob Cousy - played a million years ago and was pretty one-dimensional
10 Billy Cunningham - never really considered as the greatest player of any one year
11 Steph Curry - hasn't played that much
12 Mel Daniels - WS and VORP are pretty poor. It looks like he may have been overvalued by MVP voters
13 Anthony Davis - 63 WS
14 Clyde Drexler - one all-NBA win
2 Ray Allen - no first-team all-NBAs
9 Bob Cousy - played a million years ago and was pretty one-dimensional
10 Billy Cunningham - never really considered as the greatest player of any one year
11 Steph Curry - hasn't played that much
12 Mel Daniels - WS and VORP are pretty poor. It looks like he may have been overvalued by MVP voters
13 Anthony Davis - 63 WS
14 Clyde Drexler - one all-NBA win
18 Patrick Ewing - never won anything, not really ever considered the best or even second best player
19 Walt Frazier - played in a pretty bad period in the 1970s, never considered best guy
21 George Gervin - very one-dimensional
22 Artis Gilmore - far better in the ABA
23 James Harden - young, floppingish, annoying, plays one end.
24 John Havlicek -- Advanced stats not great, never considered best player
25 Elvin Hayes - advanced stats very poor, stats padded by years of play
26 Dwight Howard - 6 great years and then fell off a cliff
27 Allen Iverson - low WS, low efficiency, volume scorer
30 Neil Johnston -- played in the 1950s, short career
32 Jason Kidd - couldn't shoot or score, stats padded by longevity
33 Jerry Lucas - stats padded by the era he played in
34 Ed Macauley - same as Neil Johnston
38 Reggie Miller - never all-NBA, stats padded by longevity, played one end.
39 Steve Nash - one of the worst defensive players ever, shorter period of greatness
44 Gary Payton - never a top 3 player in the league
46 Scottie Pippen - without Jordan he never proved to be a truly great player
47 Willis Reed -- is he just "very good" and not truly great? Advanced stats would say so
51 Dolph Schayes -- played in an era so long ago - is it fair to say he was better than, say, Anthony Davis?
19 Walt Frazier - played in a pretty bad period in the 1970s, never considered best guy
21 George Gervin - very one-dimensional
22 Artis Gilmore - far better in the ABA
23 James Harden - young, floppingish, annoying, plays one end.
24 John Havlicek -- Advanced stats not great, never considered best player
25 Elvin Hayes - advanced stats very poor, stats padded by years of play
26 Dwight Howard - 6 great years and then fell off a cliff
27 Allen Iverson - low WS, low efficiency, volume scorer
30 Neil Johnston -- played in the 1950s, short career
32 Jason Kidd - couldn't shoot or score, stats padded by longevity
33 Jerry Lucas - stats padded by the era he played in
34 Ed Macauley - same as Neil Johnston
38 Reggie Miller - never all-NBA, stats padded by longevity, played one end.
39 Steve Nash - one of the worst defensive players ever, shorter period of greatness
44 Gary Payton - never a top 3 player in the league
46 Scottie Pippen - without Jordan he never proved to be a truly great player
47 Willis Reed -- is he just "very good" and not truly great? Advanced stats would say so
51 Dolph Schayes -- played in an era so long ago - is it fair to say he was better than, say, Anthony Davis?
53 Isiah Thomas - volume scorer, really wasn't a great player when the Pistons started winning.
54 Dwayne Wade - certainly never thought of as the best 1-2 players of any given year.
56 Russell Westbrook - young, high usage and low efficiency; best ability is his relentless style of play at a very inefficient level.
What is most useful about this exercise is that there are 27 guys (not listed here) who are pretty much a lock for any Top 36 list. Then, to fill the last 9 spots you can really make an OK argument for the last 9 spots on behalf of 29 different guys!!!
The guys I am going to drop are: Billy C., Mel Daniels, Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard, Iverson, Jerry Lucas, Easy Ed M, Willis Reed, Isiah Thomas, Russell Westbrook.
That leaves us with 46 guys left. I will list them in the next Blog entry.
54 Dwayne Wade - certainly never thought of as the best 1-2 players of any given year.
56 Russell Westbrook - young, high usage and low efficiency; best ability is his relentless style of play at a very inefficient level.
What is most useful about this exercise is that there are 27 guys (not listed here) who are pretty much a lock for any Top 36 list. Then, to fill the last 9 spots you can really make an OK argument for the last 9 spots on behalf of 29 different guys!!!
The guys I am going to drop are: Billy C., Mel Daniels, Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard, Iverson, Jerry Lucas, Easy Ed M, Willis Reed, Isiah Thomas, Russell Westbrook.
That leaves us with 46 guys left. I will list them in the next Blog entry.
Wednesday, April 18, 2018
My Pile of Top 56 Players From Which to Select The Top 36 All-NBA or all-ABA Guys
After the analysis set forth below, I had 61 guys left somehow (I don't really know how, I thought I had 60).
But, I see from the list that the ones who stick out most like a sore thumb are Penny Hardaway (only great for 3-4 years), Tom Gola (somehow avoided deletion twice) and Dick McGuire (same) and Hal Greer and Richie Guerin (same). So, we are down to 56 players. Making some great progress now! Now I just need to delete 20 more and then rank the last 36.
The 4 on my current list of 56 who are not on ESPN's Top 100 list are Anthony Davis, Ed Macauley, Mel Daniels and Neil Johnston. 10 of ESPN's top 56 guys did not make this cut to 56 (McHale, Walton, Worthy, Nique, Pierce, McAdoo, Unseld, King, Cowens, P. Gasol).
Again, I cannot assure you these are the top 56 guys of all-time, but the top 36 are on here still (all of my 2015 top 36 are on here and 35 of ESPN's top 36 are on here - Kevin McHale is gone).
1 -- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2 Ray Allen
3 Charles Barkley
4 Rick Barry
5 Elgin Baylor
6 Larry Bird
7 Kobe Bryant
8 Wilt Chamberlain
9 Bob Cousy
10 Billy Cunningham
11 Steph Curry
12 Mel Daniels
13 Anthony Davis
14 Clyde Drexler
19 Walt Frazier
20 Kevin Garnett
21 George Gervin
22 Artis Gilmore
23 James Harden
24 John Havlicek
25 Elvin Hayes
26 Dwight Howard
27 Allen Iverson
28 LeBron James
29 Magic Johnson
30 Neil Johnston
31 Michael Jordan
32 Jason Kidd
33 Jerry Lucas
34 Ed Macauley
35 Karl Malone
36 Moses Malone
37 George Mikan
38 Reggie Miller
39 Steve Nash
40 Dirk Nowitzki
41 Hakeem Olajuwon
42 Shaquille O'Neal
43 Chris Paul
49 David Robinson
50 Bill Russell
51 Dolph Schayes
But, I see from the list that the ones who stick out most like a sore thumb are Penny Hardaway (only great for 3-4 years), Tom Gola (somehow avoided deletion twice) and Dick McGuire (same) and Hal Greer and Richie Guerin (same). So, we are down to 56 players. Making some great progress now! Now I just need to delete 20 more and then rank the last 36.
The 4 on my current list of 56 who are not on ESPN's Top 100 list are Anthony Davis, Ed Macauley, Mel Daniels and Neil Johnston. 10 of ESPN's top 56 guys did not make this cut to 56 (McHale, Walton, Worthy, Nique, Pierce, McAdoo, Unseld, King, Cowens, P. Gasol).
Again, I cannot assure you these are the top 56 guys of all-time, but the top 36 are on here still (all of my 2015 top 36 are on here and 35 of ESPN's top 36 are on here - Kevin McHale is gone).
1 -- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2 Ray Allen
3 Charles Barkley
4 Rick Barry
5 Elgin Baylor
6 Larry Bird
7 Kobe Bryant
8 Wilt Chamberlain
9 Bob Cousy
10 Billy Cunningham
11 Steph Curry
12 Mel Daniels
13 Anthony Davis
14 Clyde Drexler
15 Tim Duncan
16 Kevin Durant
17 Julius Erving
18 Patrick Ewing16 Kevin Durant
17 Julius Erving
19 Walt Frazier
20 Kevin Garnett
21 George Gervin
22 Artis Gilmore
23 James Harden
24 John Havlicek
25 Elvin Hayes
26 Dwight Howard
27 Allen Iverson
28 LeBron James
29 Magic Johnson
30 Neil Johnston
31 Michael Jordan
32 Jason Kidd
33 Jerry Lucas
34 Ed Macauley
35 Karl Malone
36 Moses Malone
37 George Mikan
38 Reggie Miller
39 Steve Nash
40 Dirk Nowitzki
41 Hakeem Olajuwon
42 Shaquille O'Neal
43 Chris Paul
44 Gary Payton
45 Bob Pettit
46 Scottie Pippen
47 Willis Reed
48 Oscar Robertson
45 Bob Pettit
46 Scottie Pippen
47 Willis Reed
48 Oscar Robertson
49 David Robinson
50 Bill Russell
51 Dolph Schayes
52 John Stockton
53 Isiah Thomas
54 Dwayne Wade
55 Jerry West
56 Russell Westbrook
53 Isiah Thomas
54 Dwayne Wade
55 Jerry West
56 Russell Westbrook
Taking NBA All-Time Top 80 Down to 60
Here is the list of 80 guys from which I am going to choose the 36 greatest.
For this Blog entry, I am going to apply some "subjective analysis" based upon my own personal observations of 20 of these players (or what I personally know/have learned) and take our list to 60.
1 -- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Ray Allen
Paul Arizin -- a tough deletion, but while he was considered a true great in his time, those who know the game of that era consider Mikan and Pettit and Schayes to be better players. I am going to give Neil Johnston the slight edge on Arizin.
Charles Barkley
Hakeem Olajuwon
Shaquille O'Neal
71 -- John Stockton
Maurice Stokes - should have been eliminated last round.....oops.
Isiah Thomas
David Thompson - one of my favorite players, but a drug habit and a knee injury cut off a great career prematurely
Wes Unseld - Wes was always quite overrated as a player. It was only his MVP that saved him last round
Dwayne Wade
Jerry West
Paul Westphal - Criminally underrated, but his great years were over by age 29 and he didn't crack 70 WS
Russell Westbrook
For this Blog entry, I am going to apply some "subjective analysis" based upon my own personal observations of 20 of these players (or what I personally know/have learned) and take our list to 60.
1 -- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Ray Allen
Paul Arizin -- a tough deletion, but while he was considered a true great in his time, those who know the game of that era consider Mikan and Pettit and Schayes to be better players. I am going to give Neil Johnston the slight edge on Arizin.
Charles Barkley
Rick Barry
Elgin Baylor
Dave Bing Bing was a very good player. I have seen numerous other guard who were substantially better than Dave Bing.
Larry Bird
Kobe Bryant
Wilt Chamberlain
11 -- Bob Cousy
Dave Cowens -- he was a key to a very successful team, but his stats just don't jump out as "top 36 great". His playoff stats? Same. He is like Lanier or McAdoo or Parish or Horford - not top 36 player.
Billy Cunningham
Steph Curry
Mel Daniels
Bob Davies - played 7 years, 4 AS games, averaged under 15 ppg.
Anthony Davis
Elgin Baylor
Dave Bing Bing was a very good player. I have seen numerous other guard who were substantially better than Dave Bing.
Larry Bird
Kobe Bryant
Wilt Chamberlain
11 -- Bob Cousy
Dave Cowens -- he was a key to a very successful team, but his stats just don't jump out as "top 36 great". His playoff stats? Same. He is like Lanier or McAdoo or Parish or Horford - not top 36 player.
Billy Cunningham
Steph Curry
Mel Daniels
Bob Davies - played 7 years, 4 AS games, averaged under 15 ppg.
Anthony Davis
Clyde Drexler
Tim Duncan
Kevin Durant
21 -- Julius Erving
Kevin Durant
21 -- Julius Erving
Patrick Ewing
Bob Feerick - short career, only one great year and one very good year.
Walt Frazier
Joe Fulks - if you review Joe Fulks' stats, he was an inefficient volume scorer in an era in which everyone was an inefficicent player. Sorry, Joe.
Kevin Garnett
George Gervin
Artis Gilmore.
Tom Gola
Hal Greer
31 -- Richie Guerin
Anfernee Hardaway
James Harden
John Havlicek
Connie Hawkins - Connie was "done wrong" by being kept out of the NBA, but his actual play while in the NBA was certainly not so dominant to be considered top 36
Elvin Hayes
Spencer Haywood - great for a short period of time, not for a long enough period of time.
Dwight Howard
Allen Iverson
Bob Feerick - short career, only one great year and one very good year.
Walt Frazier
Joe Fulks - if you review Joe Fulks' stats, he was an inefficient volume scorer in an era in which everyone was an inefficicent player. Sorry, Joe.
Kevin Garnett
George Gervin
Artis Gilmore.
Tom Gola
Hal Greer
31 -- Richie Guerin
Anfernee Hardaway
James Harden
John Havlicek
Connie Hawkins - Connie was "done wrong" by being kept out of the NBA, but his actual play while in the NBA was certainly not so dominant to be considered top 36
Elvin Hayes
Spencer Haywood - great for a short period of time, not for a long enough period of time.
Dwight Howard
Allen Iverson
LeBron James
41 -- Magic Johnson
Neil Johnston
Jason Kidd
Kawhi Leonard - great start to his career, just has not played enough to warrant top 36
Jerry Lucas
Ed Macauley
41 -- Magic Johnson
Neil Johnston
Michael Jordan
Jason Kidd
Kawhi Leonard - great start to his career, just has not played enough to warrant top 36
Jerry Lucas
Ed Macauley
Karl Malone
Moses Malone
Pete Maravich - Pete was an excellent player, but his longevity and overall play are not up to top 36 standards
51 -- Bob McAdoo - a favorite of mine, but really only great for 3-4 years.
Tracy McGrady -- was not so dominant as a regular season player that you can overlook his wretched playoff record or his quitting on his team
Dick McGuire
George Mikan
Moses Malone
Pete Maravich - Pete was an excellent player, but his longevity and overall play are not up to top 36 standards
51 -- Bob McAdoo - a favorite of mine, but really only great for 3-4 years.
Tracy McGrady -- was not so dominant as a regular season player that you can overlook his wretched playoff record or his quitting on his team
Dick McGuire
George Mikan
Reggie Miller
Yao Ming - great player, career too short
Steve Nash
Dirk Nowitzki
Yao Ming - great player, career too short
Steve Nash
Dirk Nowitzki
Hakeem Olajuwon
Shaquille O'Neal
61 -- Chris Paul
Gary Payton
Bob Pettit
Scottie Pippen
Willis Reed
Oscar Robertson
Bob Pettit
Scottie Pippen
Willis Reed
Oscar Robertson
David Robinson
Bill Russell
Dolph Schayes
Bill Sharman - at some point not every Celtic can be a top 36 player - Sharman was left completely off ESPN's top 100; that was wrong, but I cannot see him being top 36.
Bill Russell
Dolph Schayes
Bill Sharman - at some point not every Celtic can be a top 36 player - Sharman was left completely off ESPN's top 100; that was wrong, but I cannot see him being top 36.
71 -- John Stockton
Maurice Stokes - should have been eliminated last round.....oops.
Isiah Thomas
David Thompson - one of my favorite players, but a drug habit and a knee injury cut off a great career prematurely
Wes Unseld - Wes was always quite overrated as a player. It was only his MVP that saved him last round
Dwayne Wade
Bill Walton - Bill Walton played about 150 games as a great player. One could argue that Kawhi Leonard has had a better career if he never plays another game.
Jerry West
Paul Westphal - Criminally underrated, but his great years were over by age 29 and he didn't crack 70 WS
Russell Westbrook
Tuesday, April 17, 2018
OK -- We are Going from Our 140 Down to a top 80
From the list of 140 guys, I am going to have to cut down.
Barring some extraordinary circumstances (since it is my list, I get to determine the extraordinary-ness of the circumstances), the following 69 guys should be deleted from consideration for a Top 36 list for having 1 or fewer all-NBA or all-ABA awards. After all, barring some special reason for keeping you off, shouldn't a top 36 player be recognized as first-team all-league at least twice in his career?
So, here are the 69 guys in danger:
LaMarcus Aldridge
Ray Allen
Carmelo Anthony
Nate Archibald
Paul Millsap
Vern Mikkelson
Sidney Moncrief
Earl Monroe
Alonzo Mourning
Chris Mullin
Dikembe Mutombo
Robert Parish
Paul Pierce
Amare Stoudemire
Nate Thurmond
Wes Unseld
Ben Wallace
Bill Walton
Bobby Wanzer
Chris Webber
Dominique Wilkins
Buck Williams
James Worthy
So, I get to keep 9. Who should I keep? Well, I will keep the 5 MVPs -- Dave Cowens, Bob McAdoo, Willis Reed, Wes Unseld and Bill Walton.
If you were literally the #1 player in the league, all other things being equal, you deserve to reach the final 80.
So, I have 4 "saves" - who gets them? Here are guys I put under serious consideration -- Ray Allen, Clyde Drexler, Patrick Ewing, Dan Issel, Bob Lanier, Kevin McHale and Reggie Miller.
A review of Win Shares and MVP shares indicates that the guys who need to go are McHale and Lanier. So that leaves Allen, Clyde, Ewing, Issel and Miller. Since Issel was not ever even 2nd team all-NBA and was only once first-team all-ABA, I am going with the other guys. So, my final pile of 80 will be.
1 -- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Ray Allen
Paul Arizin
Charles Barkley
Hakeem Olajuwon
Shaquille O'Neal
71 -- John Stockton
Maurice Stokes
Isiah Thomas
David Thompson
Wes Unseld
Dwayne Wade
Jerry West
Paul Westphal
Russell Westbrook
Barring some extraordinary circumstances (since it is my list, I get to determine the extraordinary-ness of the circumstances), the following 69 guys should be deleted from consideration for a Top 36 list for having 1 or fewer all-NBA or all-ABA awards. After all, barring some special reason for keeping you off, shouldn't a top 36 player be recognized as first-team all-league at least twice in his career?
So, here are the 69 guys in danger:
LaMarcus Aldridge
Ray Allen
Carmelo Anthony
Nate Archibald
Chauncey Billups
Chris Bosh
Roger Brown
Vince Carter
Tyson Chandler
Dave Cowens
Adrian Dantley
Dave DeBusschere
Clyde Drexler
Chris Bosh
Roger Brown
Vince Carter
Tyson Chandler
Dave Cowens
Adrian Dantley
Dave DeBusschere
Clyde Drexler
Alex English
Patrick Ewing
Patrick Ewing
Harry Gallatin
Pau Gasol
Manu Ginobili
Blake Griffin
Tim Hardaway
Tom Heinsohn
Grant Hill
Al Horford
Dan Issel
Dennis Johnson
Pau Gasol
Manu Ginobili
Blake Griffin
Tim Hardaway
Tom Heinsohn
Grant Hill
Al Horford
Dan Issel
Dennis Johnson
Gus Johnson
Kevin Johnson
Marques Johnson
Bobby Jones
Shawn Kemp
Bernard King
Bob Lanier
Kyle Lowry
Kevin Love
Kevin Johnson
Marques Johnson
Bobby Jones
Sam Jones
DeAndre Jordan
DeAndre Jordan
Shawn Kemp
Bernard King
Bob Lanier
Kyle Lowry
Kevin Love
Shawn Marion
Slater Martin
Bob McAdoo
Kevin McHale
Reggie Miller
Slater Martin
Bob McAdoo
Kevin McHale
Reggie Miller
Paul Millsap
Vern Mikkelson
Sidney Moncrief
Earl Monroe
Alonzo Mourning
Chris Mullin
Dikembe Mutombo
Robert Parish
Tony Parker
Paul Pierce
Jim Pollard
Mark Price
Willis Reed
Mitch Richmond
Mark Price
Willis Reed
Mitch Richmond
Dennis Rodman
Jack Sikma
Jack Sikma
Amare Stoudemire
Nate Thurmond
Wes Unseld
Ben Wallace
Bill Walton
Bobby Wanzer
Chris Webber
Dominique Wilkins
Buck Williams
James Worthy
George Yardley
Max ZaslofskySo, I get to keep 9. Who should I keep? Well, I will keep the 5 MVPs -- Dave Cowens, Bob McAdoo, Willis Reed, Wes Unseld and Bill Walton.
If you were literally the #1 player in the league, all other things being equal, you deserve to reach the final 80.
So, I have 4 "saves" - who gets them? Here are guys I put under serious consideration -- Ray Allen, Clyde Drexler, Patrick Ewing, Dan Issel, Bob Lanier, Kevin McHale and Reggie Miller.
A review of Win Shares and MVP shares indicates that the guys who need to go are McHale and Lanier. So that leaves Allen, Clyde, Ewing, Issel and Miller. Since Issel was not ever even 2nd team all-NBA and was only once first-team all-ABA, I am going with the other guys. So, my final pile of 80 will be.
1 -- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Ray Allen
Paul Arizin
Charles Barkley
Rick Barry
Elgin Baylor
Dave Bing
Larry Bird
Kobe Bryant
Wilt Chamberlain
11 -- Bob Cousy
Dave Cowens
Billy Cunningham
Steph Curry
Mel Daniels
Bob Davies
Anthony Davis
Elgin Baylor
Dave Bing
Larry Bird
Kobe Bryant
Wilt Chamberlain
11 -- Bob Cousy
Dave Cowens
Billy Cunningham
Steph Curry
Mel Daniels
Bob Davies
Anthony Davis
Clyde Drexler
Tim Duncan
Kevin Durant
21 -- Julius Erving
Kevin Durant
21 -- Julius Erving
Patrick Ewing
Bob Feerick
Walt Frazier
Joe Fulks
Kevin Garnett
George Gervin
Artis Gilmore.
Tom Gola
Hal Greer
31 -- Richie Guerin
Anfernee Hardaway
James Harden
John Havlicek
Connie Hawkins
Elvin Hayes
Spencer Hayward
Dwight Howard
Allen Iverson
Bob Feerick
Walt Frazier
Joe Fulks
Kevin Garnett
George Gervin
Artis Gilmore.
Tom Gola
Hal Greer
31 -- Richie Guerin
Anfernee Hardaway
James Harden
John Havlicek
Connie Hawkins
Elvin Hayes
Spencer Hayward
Dwight Howard
Allen Iverson
LeBron James
41 -- Magic Johnson
Neil Johnston
Jason Kidd
Kawhi Leonard
Jerry Lucas
Ed Macauley
41 -- Magic Johnson
Neil Johnston
Michael Jordan
Jason Kidd
Kawhi Leonard
Jerry Lucas
Ed Macauley
Karl Malone
Moses Malone
Pete Maravich
51 -- Bob McAdoo
Tracy McGrady
Dick McGuire
George Mikan
Moses Malone
Pete Maravich
51 -- Bob McAdoo
Tracy McGrady
Dick McGuire
George Mikan
Reggie Miller
Yao Ming
Steve Nash
Dirk Nowizki
Yao Ming
Steve Nash
Dirk Nowizki
Hakeem Olajuwon
Shaquille O'Neal
61 -- Chris Paul
Gary Payton
Bob Pettit
Scottie Pippen
Willis Reed
Oscar Robertson
Bob Pettit
Scottie Pippen
Willis Reed
Oscar Robertson
David Robinson
Bill Russell
Dolph Schayes
Bill Sharman
Bill Russell
Dolph Schayes
Bill Sharman
71 -- John Stockton
Maurice Stokes
Isiah Thomas
David Thompson
Wes Unseld
Dwayne Wade
Bill Walton
Jerry West
Paul Westphal
Russell Westbrook
Monday, April 16, 2018
Total of 140 Eligible Contestants -- I need to Cut Down to 36
I am not going to tell you that these are 100% exactly the top 140 players of all-time, but the top 36 guys are in this list somewhere. We will use these 140 guys as a group to cull down from.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
LaMarcus Aldridge
Ray Allen
Carmelo Anthony
Paul Arizin
Nate Archibald
Charles Barkley
Rick Barry
Elgin Baylor
Chauncey Billups
Dave Bing
Larry Bird
Chris Bosh
Roger Brown
Kobe Bryant
Vince Carter
Wilt Chamberlain
Tyson Chandler
Bob Cousy
Dave Cowens
Billy Cunningham
Steph Curry
Mel Daniels
Adrian Dantley
Bob Davies
Anthony Davis
Elgin Baylor
Chauncey Billups
Dave Bing
Larry Bird
Chris Bosh
Roger Brown
Kobe Bryant
Vince Carter
Wilt Chamberlain
Tyson Chandler
Bob Cousy
Dave Cowens
Billy Cunningham
Steph Curry
Mel Daniels
Adrian Dantley
Bob Davies
Anthony Davis
Dave DeBusschere
Clyde Drexler
Tim Duncan
Kevin Durant
Alex English
Julius Erving
Kevin Durant
Alex English
Julius Erving
Patrick Ewing
Bob Feerick
Walt Frazier
Joe Fulks
Harry Gallatin
Kevin Garnett
Pau Gasol
George Gervin
Artis Gilmore.
Manu Ginobili
Tom Gola
Hal Greer
Blake Griffin
Richie Guerin
Anfernee Hardaway
Tim Hardaway
James Harden
John Havlicek
Connie Hawkins
Elvin Hayes
Spencer Hayward
Tom Heinsohn
Grant Hill
Al Horford
Dwight Howard
Dan Issel
Allen Iverson
Bob Feerick
Walt Frazier
Joe Fulks
Harry Gallatin
Kevin Garnett
Pau Gasol
George Gervin
Artis Gilmore.
Manu Ginobili
Tom Gola
Hal Greer
Blake Griffin
Richie Guerin
Anfernee Hardaway
Tim Hardaway
James Harden
John Havlicek
Connie Hawkins
Elvin Hayes
Spencer Hayward
Tom Heinsohn
Grant Hill
Al Horford
Dwight Howard
Dan Issel
Allen Iverson
LeBron James
Dennis Johnson
Gus Johnson
Kevin Johnson
Magic Johnson
Marques Johnson
Neil Johnston
Shawn Kemp
Jason Kidd
Bernard King
Bob Lanier
Kawhi Leonard
Kyle Lowry
Kevin Love
Jerry Lucas
Ed Macauley
Dennis Johnson
Gus Johnson
Kevin Johnson
Magic Johnson
Marques Johnson
Neil Johnston
Bobby Jones
Sam Jones
DeAndre Jordan
Michael JordanDeAndre Jordan
Shawn Kemp
Jason Kidd
Bernard King
Bob Lanier
Kawhi Leonard
Kyle Lowry
Kevin Love
Jerry Lucas
Ed Macauley
Karl Malone
Moses Malone
Pete Maravich
Shawn Marion
Slater Martin
Bob McAdoo
Tracy McGrady
Dick McGuire
Kevin McHale
George Mikan
Moses Malone
Pete Maravich
Shawn Marion
Slater Martin
Bob McAdoo
Tracy McGrady
Dick McGuire
Kevin McHale
George Mikan
Reggie Miller
Paul Millsap
Vern Mikkelson
Yao Ming
Sidney Moncrief
Earl Monroe
Alonzo Mourning
Chris Mullin
Dikembe Mutombo
Steve Nash
Dirk Nowizki
Paul Millsap
Vern Mikkelson
Yao Ming
Sidney Moncrief
Earl Monroe
Alonzo Mourning
Chris Mullin
Dikembe Mutombo
Steve Nash
Dirk Nowizki
Hakeem Olajuwon
Shaquille O'Neal
Robert Parish
Tony Parker
Chris Paul
Gary Payton
Bob Pettit
Paul Pierce
Scottie Pippen
Jim Pollard
Mark Price
Willis Reed
Mitch Richmond
Bob Pettit
Paul Pierce
Scottie Pippen
Jim Pollard
Mark Price
Willis Reed
Mitch Richmond
Oscar Robertson
David Robinson
Dennis Rodman
Bill Russell
Dolph Schayes
Bill Sharman
Jack Sikma
David Robinson
Dennis Rodman
Bill Russell
Dolph Schayes
Bill Sharman
Jack Sikma
John Stockton
Maurice Stokes
Amare Stoudemire
Isiah Thomas
David Thompson
Nate Thurmond
Wes Unseld
Dwayne Wade
Ben Wallace
Bill WaltonBobby Wanzer
Chris Webber
Jerry West
Paul Westphal
Russell Westbrook
Dominique Wilkins
Buck Williams
James Worthy
George Yardley
Max Zaslofsky
2018 Top 36 List -- Gathering More Data -- 79 Guys
Here were the guys on my top 36 list from 2015:
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Ray Allen, Charles Barkley
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Ray Allen, Charles Barkley
Rick Barry, Elgin Baylor, Larry Bird
Kobe Bryant, Wilt Chamberlain, Clyde Drexler
Tim Duncan, Kevin Durant, Julius Erving
Patrick Ewing, Kevin Garnett, John Havlicek
LeBron James, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan
Karl Malone, Moses Malone, George Mikan
Reggie Miller, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowtizki
Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O'Neal, Chris Paul
Gary Payton. Bob Petit, Scottie Pippen
Oscar Robertson, David Robinson, Bill Russell
John Stockton, Dwayne Wade. Jerry West.
Adding in guys in from ESPN's panel of "experts" top 70 that are not on my 2015 list:
Steph Curry
Isiah Thomas
Kevin McHale
Jason Kidd
Walt Frazier
Bob Cousy
Elvin Hayes
Gary Payton
Bill Walton
James Worthy
Nique
Paul Pierce
Allen Iverson
George Gervin
Willis Reed
Russell Westbrook
Bob McAdoo
Wes Unseld
Bernard King
Dave Cowens
Pau Gasol
Robert Parish
Tony Parker
Carmelo Anthony
Earl Monroe
Manu Ginobili
Alex English
Tracy McGrady
Dennis Rodman
Alonzo Mourning
Chris Webber
Dwight Howard
Bob Lanier
Vince Carter
Artis Gilmore.
Guys On the 50 at 50 list who disappeared
Pete Maravich
Dave Bing
Bill Sharman
Dave DeBuscherre
Great Defenders
Dikembe Mutombo
Ben Wallace
Bobby Jones
Sam Jones
Friday, April 06, 2018
My April 2018 Top 36 Players of All-Time -- Background, What Makes a Player Great?
I know that I have gone over this before, but rather than look it up and just regurgitate it, I thought since I am taking a new look in 2018 (versus my 2015 list) that I would try to evaluate the elements of what makes a truly "great" player and why one "great" player is better than another.
Traits of a Great NBA/ABA Player
1) Recognized In His Time as a Great Player -- Look, we have awards for a reason. Every year people are given the opportunity to vote for the best defender, the best rookie, the best 5 guys (all-NBA), the best 15 guys (three all-NBA teams) and the best 24-30 guys (the all-star games and injury replacements). Why do we do this? In part it is because the we wanted to recognize for ourselves and for future generations "who are/were the best guys?"
Strengths - it is an evaluation made at the actual time of play; it is made independently of the teams or players; it can be assessed across generations (all-NBA is all-NBA)
Weaknesses -- There can be politics and the fact that guys who start as all-star or all-NBA tend to hang on a bit too long. It also favors players with good PR, players on good teams and big markets and tends to get distorted when you are playing either against terrible competition at your position or at all-time high levels of play at your position.
2) Raw Numbers and Per-Game Numbers -- While there will always be those out there who say "well, sure, Wilt got 50 a game, his team shot 190 times a game" what raw numbers and per game figures can tell us, if properly reviewed, is who put up numbers at the top of the league and how far above their competition they were. Example - Wilt's 27 rebounds a night is less impressive because Russell was very close behind, but Wilt's 50 points a night is extremely impressive because no one at the time (or even today) ever approached it.
Strengths - see above
Weaknesses - you have to look a little deeper; for example, Russell Westbrook's 30/11/10 season cannot be reviewed and evaluated without some mention of the fact that his Usage Rate was almost 42%. Certainly anyone physically capable of a 42 Usage would put up big numbers. I mean, Kobe could have gone 40-7-7 some years if you just gave him the green light and said "jack it every time come hell or high water."
3) Longevity - Played a Long Time at a High Level -- this is a tough one for me. I see it used against players like Sidney Moncrief and Paul Westphal to keep them out of the Hall of Fame. On the other hand, I see it used by fans of Paul Pierce to say he is a top 25 all-time player (Spoiler Alert, he is not).
Was Sandy Koufax a better pitcher than Don Sutton? Certainly. Did he have a better career? What exactly does that mean? How can you say? That is why longevity is the hardest of the components to base your judgments upon. Was a 7 year Sandy Koufax as good of a pitcher as, say, Walter Johnson? Certainly not - Johnson was as dominant and better over a lengthier period of time. So, looking at the issue for judging players is worthwhile. It is just difficult to assess what weight to give the factor. Should Robert Parish be ranked higher as a player than Grant Hill? I guess I'd say yes. But I can certainly see the argument for no.
This category is also an extremely important one in evaluating the careers of Larry Bird and Magic Johnson. They were both supremely great NBA players. Larry Bird had 9 great seasons. Magic Johnson had 11. Now, we are not evaluating Gayle Sayers here. That is a lot of years. But when you are fighting in the top 20 spots of all-time, some consideration has to be give for guys like Wilt and Kareem playing at a high level basically forever.
George Mikan is another player - 6 otherworldly seasons. Same comment on Neil Johnston - 6 great seasons. Is Neil Johnston a better player than Artis Gilmore or Moses Malone?
Strengths and Weaknesses - see above
4) Playoff and Championship Success -- as people will remind you who do not like this category - basketball is a team game. If you have a terrible coach and terrible teammates, it is gonna be pretty hard to succeed at the highest level. Other people will remind you (for example, fans of Bill Russell) that there is only one reason to play the games, and that being "better" means you always win.
There are certainly obvious limits to this theory - was Robert Horry (7 titles) a better player than Charles Barkley, Karl Malone and John Stockton (0 total titles)? No. Reggie Miller? No. Is Frank Ramsey one of the greatest players of all-time? No. Does Dirk Nowtizki's 1 title in 2011 change your perception of him? It may. Does it bother me that Isiah Thomas (whom I do not care for) made the NBA Finals three consecutive years and won twice? Yes, that causes me a lot of cognitive dissonance. Does Allen Iverson's reaching the Finals matter? What if he had won a title, rather than losing to the Lakers with his far-inferior team? Do I give Rick Barry a lot of credit for the Warriors title he won? I absolutely do.
The strength of this category is it is pretty black-and-white - you either won or you did not. And there is no question that in competitive sports you play for titles.
The weakness of the category is that just judging titles does not answer the question of who was responsible for the title, whether his team would have been good/won anyway, what the person did in the Finals, etc.
5) The Eye Test -- I have learned from being on Twitter that there is "eye test" Twitter and "analytics" Twitter and you are supposed to choose one and rip the shit out of the other. I have always said that I can evaluate any NBA player if you allow me to watch him play for 20 consecutive games in person. That is the #1 way to evaluate a player. Watching a player play live, you can judge his size, speed, coordination, court vision, effort level, how "dominant" he is versus other players, things he can do that you have never seen before, his leadership, his composure (or lack thereof).
When people evaluate players in their own mind, they generally first think of this. I will never forget seeing Shaq play at the 1991 Olympic Festival - there were a lot of big guys there and a lot of very talented players (Penny, Jimmy Jackson). Shaq's size and speed and agility was just insane. Watch Jordan play - unbelievably fast, unbelievably decisive. Watch LeBron play - incredibly fast, incredibly large, stunning passer. Watch Kobe - relentless. Watch a young Dwyane Wade - he could literally extend the height of the ball while in the air, effectively jumping twice in one jump. Vince Carter in games would toss the ball off the board or rim in the halfcourt set because he knew he could jump up and dunk it before anyone else could reach it.
Strengths -- as I said, the truest way to evaluate a player
Weaknesses - unless you are incredibly lucky, you won't see most guys play 20X, you are biased because of the small sample size you do see, you are biased because you love some guys and hate others for reasons unrelated to the game.
6) Analytics and Advanced Stats -- If you cannot watch a guy play in person 20X+ then you should rely upon analytics as your primary evaluator. There are those who say "advanced stats overvalues X and undervalues Y". This can be true. VORP overvalues guys who handle the ball a lot. WS tends to overvalue larger players (the outliers on the top of the chart are bigger guys). But if you evaluate all of the stats together and look at it over the course of 10-20-30 years, you will generally see that the better players (the guys identified in 1, 2, 4,5 above) are high up on the Advanced Stats.
The belief that your favorite player gets "screwed" by Advanced Stats because they do things measured by Advanced Stats? That is more an indictment of YOU as a talent evaluator than it is of the stats. I will concede that there are some opaque stats (stats where you really cannot determine how they are judged) and some stats that really do not properly evaluate guys ("On-Off" stats are useful if you are like Chris Paul and play with players 1-12 on your roster during the course of a game - they are not particularly relevant if you play with great starters who play 40 mpg and then you have a shitty bench that plays 8 mpg).
As an overall evaluative tool, some combination of PER, WS, WS/48, and VORP is almost certainly going to produce a list of the best players in the league, and if it doesn't, that player will generally be sorted out by the fact that he does not achieve in Category #1.
Strength - see above, also designed to evaluate players across eras
Weaknesses - cannot be the sole determinating factor used. Some newer stats have no track record of sorting good players from bad.
So - there you go, time for me to get a pen and start ranking.