Players With 7x First Team All-NBA or All-ABA and 5 Top 3 Finishes in MVP

 For James Harden’s birthday, I noted that he will soon have 6x 1st team All-NBAs and 5x Top 3 finishes in MVP balloting, which led me to think - who is clearly higher up in these awards than Harden (who is only 31)?  Well, I did a shitload of work, and I have a crumpled piece of paper in my pocket and I will lose it within 24 hours, so I am recording my work here.  

For this item, I will reduce my criteria down to just squeaking ahead of Harden on All-NBA/ABA and tying him on Top 3 MVP.  So 7&5 at least:  

14) Shaq - 8x 1st team, 5x Top 3

13) Oscar - 9&5

Tie for 10th) Pettit - 10&5 West-10 & 5  Duncan-10 & 5

Tie for 8th) Karl Malone- 11&5  Kobe- 11&5  

These 14-8th place guys (7 guys) have the edge on Harden thus far by virtue of more All-NBA 1st team awards   He has caught them, however, in Top 3 MVPs.  As we can see, being Top 3 in MVP 5 times is a huge ask   It just doesn't happen much (Bob Pettit was top 6 MVP 9 of the 11 years he played and Top 4 in 8 of those years, but he was only 5x Top 3).

(I should stop here and note that there are guys who exceed Harden in one category but who are behind him in another.  Cousy is 10&2, Rick Barry is 9&1,  Baylor is 10&4.  In probably the weirdest NBA stat in this area, Bill Russell finished Top 3 in MVP 9x, but he played in the same era as Wilt, so he had only 3 1st team All-NBA awards - 3&9).

So, in addition to the 14-8th place guys above who are cumulatively better than Harden and at least equal in both award categories, we have 7 who eclipse him in both  

7) Wilt - Wilt has 7 1st teams and 7 Top 3 finishes.  Wilt also has 4 MVPs.   Total relevant awards - 14.

6) Doc - 9&7.  You have to count ABA, but if you do he has 16 relevant awards, also 4 MVPs 

5)  Larry Bird - 9&8 - 17 total relevant awards  3 MVPs

4) Magic Johnson - 9&9 - 18 total relevant awards  3 MVPs  

3) Kareem 10&9 - 19 total relevant awards, 6 MVPs

2) Michael Jordan - 10&10 - 20 relevant awards, 5 MVPs  

1) LeBron James - I am going to assume he gets 2 in COVID-world, so 13x 1st team All-NBA, 11x Top 3 MVP.  24 total relevant awards, 4 MVPs   

You’d think that LBJ could put up 1-4 more awards and end at 25-28 such awards  if he got to 28, he’d have double Wilt and double Oscar   That is a crazy accomplishment.   

Steph Curry? 3&2  Kevin Durant? 6&4   These players are each slightly older than Harden.  He has surpassed their awards performance in these categories, and they now need to catch him in these categories.

Basketball Reference Adds "Adjusted Shooting" - What Does It Tell Us?

www.basketball-reference.com has added "Adjusted Shooting" s a category in its stats for each player.  As of July 14, 2020, it is not searchable (which sucks) but what does it tell us and what does it not tell us?

Well, Adjusted Shooting is like ERA Plus or OPS Plus for baseball - where these stats tell you how your pitching and hitting compares to your peers that season, Adjusted Shooting tells you how a player's shooting compared to the other players of his era.

So, the benefits of Adjusted Shooting?  

1) Tells us how superior or inferior a player was in creating points versus the overall league average. So, Neil Johnston, for example, played during a time period where the players shot very poorly.

From 1951-52 to 1958-59, the league average in FG% was 37.9% overall.  Johnston shot .444 for his career.  This led him to 6 seasons at 19 ppg or greater, 3 scoring titles and 3X leading the NBA in FG%.  Johnson shot 117% of league average and shot 105% of league average from the line.  He also had a rate of shooting free throw 144% of league average.

Therefore, Johnston's TS+ (True Shooting Plus) was 119 for his career - an insanely high number.  Except for a year where he played under 30 games, Johnston never had a TS+ of less than 115.  He was 15 to 22% more productive as a shooter every single year.

What does that tell us?  Well, he was way better at getting points efficiently than the people he played against. 

Then basketball-reference adds two other columns:  FG Added and TS Added.  These columns account for how many shots and free throws were taken while shooting the higher percentage.  The theory here is that if you are shooting 100% but only taking 1 shot, you'd be far better off shooting 75% and taking 100 shots.  Makes sense.

Johnston added between 180 and 290 points a year over a league average player.  He was a productive and efficient payer.  If you replaced him with a replacement player at league average, you'd lose 2.5 to 3.5 points a game every game.

2) The Adjusted Shooting Stats tell us/show us how crucial it is to get a lot of free throws and make a lot of free throws.

For this example, let's take Larry Bird and James Harden.

Larry Bird's career shooting averages are .496/.376/.886
Harden .442/.356/.858

Larry Bird's True Shooting Added = 1055
Harden = 2,146
Bird has played more minutes.

How is this possible?  Well, in Bird's day the league's FG% was .484.  He is 102% of average.
Harden 97%.  When you figure in 3s, both guys get to about 103% of TS% average

So why is Harden's TS+ 112 while Bird's is 105?  Well, Bird was a better free throw shooter, so it isn't percentage at the line...it is times at the line. 

Harden has shot over 7,200 free throws.  Bird in his entire career shot 4,471 free throws.  Harden's free throw rate of attempts is 195% of average.  Bird's?  79%.  In NO season did Bird ever come close to shooting a league average number of free throws (90% was his best year).

So, if you count only FIELD GOALS
Bird adds 826 points
Harden adds 458 points

With free throws
Bird 1055
Harden 2146

In his entire career, Larry Bird added 229 points above league average with free throws.  Harden - almost 1,700.  There is no player I could find who surpassed 1,700.  The guys who drew a ton of fouls and shot a good FT percentage (Oscar, Dantley, West, Durant, Karl Malone) were all 1,200 to 1,500 for their entire careers.  Harden could play another 8 years - he could just absolutely bury everyone.

It is interesting that Jordan in the last 10 seasons he played never cracked 114% of league average for FT rate.  Harden for his career is 195% and his last 4 years are 212, 199, 174 and 201%.  So it is not your imagination, Harden shoots an insane number of free throws.  As best I can tell, no good free thrower had ever shot as many, compared to league average.

So..........getting a lot of free throws and making a lot of free throws is HUGE in Adjusted Shooting.  Adrian Dantley and Reggie Miller - lot of FT, made a lot, hug u on TS Added list.


3) Adjusted Shooting Generally Tells You that Defensive Players Aren't Great shooters


If you look at guys on high on the all-time list regarded as great defenders, most of them are not good at the Adjusted Shooting stat.  Guys all below 1,000

Hakeem
Garnett
Pippen


Guys who are actually NEGATIVE (below league average)
Russell
Havlicek
Gary Payton ekes over 0 at 8.8


4) Some Comps that may surprise you

Hakeem's TS Added?  909
David Robinson's 1861

Hakeem had only 2 years above 100 in TS Added (1993, 1994)
David had 9 above 100 and 4 above 200.


Jason Kidd - thought to be one of the worst shooters ever - he was.  Negative 806.
Isiah Thomas - wow what a wizard!  What a great offensive player!!  Negative 771. 

That is right, Isiah Thomas was below average in 2 point FG%, 3 point FG%, exactly league average at FT%.  He was far WORSE below league average in TS Added per season (negative 59) than was Kidd (negative 42)


While I am sure there is someone out there who was worse, Antoine Walker sets the bar REALLY high with NEGATIVE 1306 over 12 years.  Averaging a negative 100+ over his entire career.

Andrew Wiggins - averages around a negative 80, although his 2018-19 negative 177 is worse than anything Walker ever put up.


SO, WHAT CAN'T Adjusted Shooting tell us?

Well, if you are good at all aspects of the game other than shooting, it cannot tell us that. It isn't much of a weapon to compare guys across eras.  I mean, Neil Johnston's 119% TS+ is great.  Does it mean that he'd put up 119% against modern competition?  No.  Does it tell you the opposite?  No.

It also won't necessarily tell you who the best players are.  As far as I can tell, Artis Gilmore at 3880 is #2 all-time behind Kareem.  Is Artis the second best player of all-time?  No.

It will give you a little insight and ammunition into player comps from similar eras - for example, this is yet another stat where Barkley and Robinson excel.   Steph Curry has the reputation as the greatest shooter of all-time.  He isn't above Oscar in any career Adjusted Shooting stat.  He certainly is not the overall player Oscar was, so if Oscar is equal in TS+ (115 to 115) and leads by 1500 in TS Added, what exactly is Steph's argument?

Curry, by the way, in 2015-16 had a True Shooting % of 124% above league average and had the second greatest TS Added ever +454.7.  He has never come close to that before or since.

Kareem appears to be #1 cumulative in TS Added and #1 in a single season (1972 - 460.4).

Wilt was stymied by his poor free throw shooting.  Wilt regularly lost 100 points a year to poor FT shooting.  Shaq was negative 1,000 for his career from the line.  Both were, nevertheless, very high + for their overall Adjusted Shooting.


So - there you go.









   

An Old Pre-Cell Phone Story

I saw a picture of myself from 1982 today and it reminded me of an old story.  My kids often ask me what it was like before cell phones.  I often tell them that the chances of sitting around waiting for someone who never arrived were much higher than today.

(Note - "The Irishman" features a lot of discussion about how long you should wait for someone who is late.  One guy says 10 minutes.  You'd have to have had a really strong self image to wait for someone only 10 minutes - I'd often wait 15-30 minutes to see if people would arrive.)

Anyway - even weirder circumstances could arise.

In 1982, I was dating a girl named Michelle who lived 40 miles away.  She had a couple friends - Tracy and Cindy - who went to her school and who also knew me.  So, one Saturday I am going to Michelle's house so I call her Saturday morning.  "Look, I have stuff to do with my family until 3, but why don't you drive out to say hello to Cindy and Tracy, they always complain that you never visit them."  Um, OK.  If I left the house by noon, my dad would generally not have farm chores he would assign me, so I always tried to leave by 10 or 11.  So I go to Cindy's house, hang out for around an hour, get her mom to make me some food, leave.  It was fine, a good visit.

So, buoyed by that experience, I get out the directions Michelle had given me to Tracy's house.  She lives WAY out in the sticks.  But hey, I got some time, nothing else to do.  Now, to make this situation clear, I am about 5'9" tall, OK looking guy.  Tracy is like 5'11" tall, red hair, absolutely beautiful.  Head cheerleader at her school.  Used to love singing certain parts of "Hungry Like the Wolf" with a lot of people around.  Anyway, she wants to see me, I am told, so I drive over to re-live the good experience I just had with Cindy and Cindy's mom.

I get to her house. 

Outside, I see a woman who is probably her mom.  "Hey Mrs. _________?  (yes).  I am a friend of your daughter Tracy.  Is she around?"  It was at this point that my discomfort would begin to rise significantly.  "No.  She isn't here."  OK, well, do you expect her back?  "Look, I have no idea where she is.  She left a while ago and said she'd be back in an hour.  Do you want to wait?"

So, it is about 1:00 p.m., I am in Nowheresville, USA and I really have nothing at all to do until 3PM.  I have eaten.  There is no Facebook, no Internet, no Twitter.  I haven't brought a book.  So..."…….Sure, I will wait."  OK.  noone is inside, so obviously I will be waiting outside in or by my car.

About 10 minutes later, up the dirt driveway come a car.  "Oh, thank God!"  Car drives up, door opens - a big heavy guy about 50 years old.  "Son, what can I do for you?"  Are you Mr. ____________?  "Yes."  Well, I am a friend of your daughter's, I understand she is going to be home soon.  "Um, maybe.  What do you want?"  Just stopped by to say hello.  "Well...….(looks at me, obviously disappointed someone like me would want to woo his daughter, which I didn't want to do anyway) yeah, you know Tracy. she probably won't be home for a LOOOOOOONG time.  I am not sure we will be seeing her."

It was at that point that I, if I were acting reasonably, should have got in my car and left.  If there was anything that these people would have loved, it would have been for me to leave.  But then the dad made a mistake.  "Look, I am going in to watch college football.  Do you like football, or...…..??"  I think the next words on his mind were probably "or are you gay" or some such thing.  It was clearly not a friendly statement.  I do not reply.  "OK, well..."  Guy gets to the screen door, turns, "Look, do ya want to come in or what?!?"  Now, in the area where I was raised, if someone asked you to watch sports and you stated that you did not want to watch sports, that was about the biggest error you could ever make.  The story would be told for years about, "This weird kid who was all dressed up for some reason came to my house on a Saturday.  I asked him to watch football and he wouldn't even do that!"  So, I am in a tough spot.  I am thinking - the gears in my head are grinding to a halt.

"Kid!  Hey!"
Yes sir.
"Do YOU (points to me) want to come IN (points inside), or what?"

Sure.

We proceed to watch Nebraska beat the hell out of someone for 20 minutes.  The mom comes in and offers me some super hard cookies out of a box, which I, of course, eat and try to pretend they are wonderful.  I try to engage in some friendly conversation with the dad.  Nope, that will not be happening.  When the clock hits 1:30, I say "Well, tell Tracy I came by."  Now, as I am driving down the long dirt driveway, up comes a super crappy car that a teenager would be driving.  It is Tracy.

I pull off on the grass (probably another faux pas - even though the grass there was mostly dirt) and get out of the car.  "What are you doing here!?!?"  Michelle said I should drop by. "Um, why?"  She said you'd like to see me.  "Uh, OK.  So.....hi."  Look, Tracy. I just spent 30 minutes with your mom and dad, I am just about worn out from stress.  It is good to see you.  I will tell Michelle you said hi.  "Yeah, thanks for coming. (gives me a small hug).  I am amazed you found my house."

So I left.  I do not remember at all what I did for the next 90 minutes.  But then I got to see my GF.  She asked how my travels went.  My summary was that Cindy and her mom were super nice but I didn't get to see Tracy much as she was busy.  Of course, this very misleading story was eventually busted, as I received a call Tuesday from Michelle.  "Nice work at Tracy's house.  Oh my lord, that must have been rough."  It was.  "Tracy's dad is still shocked you came into the house and didn't leave.  He says he has never met such a weird kid,"  Thanks.  Can we let it drop?  It never really dropped.

In 2020, I would have had Cindy and Tracy's cell numbers and just texted them that I needed something to do for 2 hours, and we would have either made plans or not.  I would have been spared the SUPER awkward interactions, and even if things fell apart during the day, I could have at least taken solace in the internet.

But then, of course, I wouldn't have this 38-year-old story to tell.

January 8, 2020 Points + Rebound + Assists Leaders - Over 45,000 total

10.  Dr. J -- 45, 727 (ABA guy)

9.  Tim Duncan -- 45,812

8.  Elvin Hayes -- 45,990

7.   Kevin Garnett -- 46,178

6.  Kobe Bryant -- 46,996

5.  Moses Malone -- 49,350 (has ABA stats)

4. LeBron James - 51, 659

3.  Karl Malone -- 57,144

2.  Wilt Chamberlain -- 59,986

1.   Kareem Abdul-Jabbar -- 61,487 (only guy on list in top 50 in career points, rebounds and assists)



Worthy of note:

LeBron has 10,789 in the playoffs as well, so he is over 62,000 in his career.

But he is still WAY behind the top 3 guys, all of whom have 7-8,000 of their own.  It will take a couple really good years for LeBron to pass Karl Malone, 3 good years.  3-4 very good years for him to pass Wilt and KAJ.

Wilt's counting stats production per game is insane.  Kareem is #2 in career Games Played.  Karl Malone is 6th.  LeBron today is 38th.  Wilt?  111th.  Wilt played fewer games than Marvin Williams.

While Wilt is 9th in career minutes played, he is 7,000 minutes behind Karl Malone and 10,000 behind Kareem (who are 1 and 2 in MP).