Generally, Young Small Rookie Point Guards Really Suck

The Wolves select Tyus Jones, whom I love (my son once hit a home run off Tyus Jones).  But history teaches us that only one small young rookie point guard has been very good -- Chris Paul. 

After that, Brandon Jennings, Tony Parker and Stephon Marbury were OK, Rajon Rondo and Isiah Thomas were mediocre and everyone else was pretty much flat out bad, even if they played a lot.

Of course, Isiah ended up in the Hall of Fame, as will Parker.  Brandon Jennings regressed.  Rondo was the PG on a title team.

So, it is safe to say that the rewards of picking Tyus Jones are unlikely to come in year 1. 
That said, the analytics guys who love Tyus state that his #1 comparable is...........Chris Paul.

Draft Express's Top 14 picks and Some of My Comparisons

14.  Cameron Payne -- Brandon Jennings

13. Kelly Oubre - Randy Foye

Willie Cauley-Stein - Brendan Haywood

Trey Lyles -- Channing Frye

Devin Booker -- Eric Gordon

Frank Kaminsky -- Mehmet Okur/Troy Murphy

Stanley Johnson -- Marvin Williams

Emmanuel Mudiay -- John Wall (good) or Robert Pack (bad)

Krispas Porzingas -- Andrea Bargnani

Justise Winslow -- Wilson Chandler

Mario Hezonja -- Peja Stoyakovic

D'Angelo Russell -- Deron Williams

2. Jahlil Okafor -- Al Jefferson/Zach Randolph

1.  Karl-Anthony Towns -- Rasheed Wallace/Kevin Garnett

2015 NBA Draft Guide

These guys do a great job:   http://bballbreakdown.com/2015/06/23/2015-bballbreakdown-official-draft-companion-guide/

Of particular interest is their description of players by category:

Traditional PG	Chris Paul
Scoring PG	Russell Westbrook
High Usage SG	DeMar DeRozan
Facilitating SG	James Harden
Two-Way Wing	Jimmy Butler
Specialists	Kyle Korver/Tony Allen
3-and-D wing	DeMarre Carroll
Point Forward	LeBron James
Stretch 4	Kevin Love
Hustle 4	Kenneth Faried
Scoring Post	Enes Kanter
Rim Protector	Rudy Gobert
Help 5	Joakim Noah

Doug Gottlieb's Big Board

http://www.cbssports.com/general/writer/doug-gottlieb/25219531/nba-draft-dangelo-russell-is-no-2-on-gottliebs-big-board

I swear to God, if Karl-Anthony Towns is a "young Sam Perkins" and the Wolves select him, I will have to be talked down off the ledge.  A "young" Sam Perkins' best year was 15-8 and 1.2 blocks.

If Towns = Perkins, here is what that means:  0 all-star game appearances, 0 all-NBA appearances, a "Hall of Fame Probability" of 0.000.

Awesome.

I would much prefer to think of Towns as four-time all-star Rasheed Wallace or 3-time all-star and 3rd team all-NBA player Al Horford.

I mean, if you are going to compare Towns to Perkins, you might as well declare him an outright bust and pull out names like Larry Demic or James Ray or Bill Garnett or Kwame Brown or Michael Olowokandi.  Towns is #1 on your board and is considered as the #1 pick in the draft, for God's sake.  If you are drafting a guy who will never be an all-star and who has a 0.000% chance of the Hall of Fame, you sure as hell ought to draft someone else.  D'Angelo Russell is a Steph Curry/James Harden hybrid and you have him behind a guy who you think will never be an all-star or make an all-NBA club?

The new rip on Tyus Jones is that he has poor court vision?  What Duke games has Doug Gottlieb watched?  I have watched Tyus play since high school and have seen him in AAU games.  Guys who can score want to play with Tyus because their scoring averages will go up 10 ppg.  Reid Travis was a top 100 prospect - played one year of AAU with Tyus - top 40.  Brock Bertram as a freshman was ranked super high as a college prospect because.......he played with Tyus.  Once he started playing without Tyus - stock plummeted.  I never understood why Rashad Vaughn would not play more AAU with Tyus - he would have scored 35-40 a game. 

Tyus ran the Duke offense every single possession and played 35-40 minutes a game.  I guess Duke's championship and ridiculous record against top 15 teams (something like 12-3) was DESPITE the mediocre point guard play they were receiving on, well, every single offensive possession of every single game....

Matthew Dellavedova 2015 Playoffs -- Basically The Worst Guy Who Played Much

http://bkref.com/tiny/JE3JA

Of 22 guys who played the number of minutes he did (497) or more, Delly ranked:

Win Shares - last
WS.48 == last
Points Per Game - last
Rebounds per game - tie for last with JJ Redick
FG% - last
2 point % - next to last (beat out teammate Iman Shumpert)
3 point % - 14th
Effective FG%   -- last
True Shooting % -- last


Interestingly, if you open up the sort to only 400 minutes played, you do get guys who challenge Delly a little for suckiness.  Marc Gasol shot .394 with no 3s, so he had a worse FG% and eFG%.

Andrew Bogut, by the by, played less than Delly and shot 5-13 from the line.

How Does LeBron's Playoff Work Compared to the Other Greats?

My top 36 Players of all-time:

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Ray Allen, Charles Barkley

 Rick Barry, Elgin Baylor, Larry Bird 

Kobe Bryant, Wilt Chamberlain, Clyde Drexler

 Tim Duncan, Kevin Durant, Julius Erving

 Patrick Ewing, Kevin Garnett, John Havlicek

 LeBron James, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan

 Karl Malone, Moses Malone, George Mikan

 Reggie Miller, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowtizki

 Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O'Neal, Chris Paul

 Gary Payton. Bob Petit, Scottie Pippen

 Oscar Robertson, David Robinson, Bill Russell

 John Stockton, Dwayne Wade. Jerry West.


On List and Went to 6+ finals:
Kareem
Baylor
Kobe
Wilt
Duncan
Havlicek
LeBron
Magic
Michael
Shaq
Pippen
Russell
West


Led Their Team to 6+ Finals -- That is, Were the Best Guy On 6 Finals Teams
Kareem (2 w/Bucks, I will give him 80, 82, 83, 84 w/Lakers)
Wilt (7 Finals, even by 1972 he was still 1st team all-NBA, so...)
Duncan
LeBron
Magic (I would say 5, but if you give him 84, which is about when the team became his, it goes along with 85, 87, 88, 89 and 91)
Michael
Russell
West (at least has an argument for the lion's share of the Lakers' appearances, I will leave him here, though it may not be possible to leave both him and Wilt on)


Guys Who Led Their Teams to 6+ Finals and Ended Up With Both More Titles (2) and More Finals MVPs (2) Than LeBron Now Has

Magic (3 MVP, 5 titles)  - note that Magic's teams lost Finals in 1983, 1984, 1989 and 1991. 
Michael (6 and 6)
Duncan (3 and 5)

Should add Bill Russell (11 titles) even though there was no Finals MVP back then.

So yes, LeBron haters, he is a terrible player and a disgrace to playoff basketball.  There are a grand total of 4 guys who have led their teams to the Finals as many times and done better overall. 

Explaining the NBA Finals 2015 Very Briefly

Most effective players in the finals:

https://twitter.com/kpelton/status/611249217017810944

 

James

Curry

Iggy

Green

Mozgov. 

This teaches us, of course, that James was the MVP and, if he was not, then it should have been Curry.  But, moving on.... 

If Mozgov was pretty good, why did the Cavs lose?  Well, the Cavs’ backcourt was SO awful that it wiped out virtually all of LeBron’s Wins Above Replacement (he had +1.7, they cost -1.5).

 

Delly, Smith, Shumpert and James Jones failed to play at a level equal to these guys:  http://hoopramblings.blogspot.com/2015/03/who-is-nba-replacement-player-for.html

Howard Eisley, JJ Barea and Gerald Henderson level of play would have netted the Cavs a title.

Unfortunately, rather than reaching this lofty "I am as good as a random replacement player" goal, Delly, for example, actually far, far worse.

Guys With at least 3 Win Shares in At Least 5 Playoff Seasons

1	Michael Jordan*	1989	1998	CHI	NBA	8
2	LeBron James	2007	2015	TOT	NBA	7
3	Magic Johnson*	1984	1991	LAL	NBA	6
4	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*	1971	1984	TOT	NBA	5
5	Wilt Chamberlain*	1962	1972	TOT	NBA	5
6	Tim Duncan	1999	2014	SAS	NBA	5
7	Shaquille O'Neal	1995	2004	TOT	NBA	5

So, what you see here, once again, are my top 6 NBA players of all-time, slightly out of order (I have Magic at #6, he is #3, I have LeBron at #4, he is #2, etc.), plus Shaq (my #9 best NBA player).


If you tighten the criteria so that you also need to have a WS/48 greater than .200, you get:

1	Michael Jordan*	1989	1998	CHI	NBA	8
2	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*	1971	1984	TOT	NBA	5
3	LeBron James	2007	2014	TOT	NBA	5
4	Wilt Chamberlain*	1962	1972	TOT	NBA	4
5	Tim Duncan	1999	2014	SAS	NBA	4
6	Shaquille O'Neal	2000	2004	LAL	NBA	4
7	Chauncey Billups	2004	2009	TOT	NBA	3
8	Magic Johnson*	1985	1987	LAL	NBA	3
9	Jerry West*	1966	1969	LAL	NBA	3

My top 6 guys plus Shaq, Jerry West and Chauncey.  How about Chauncey putting up over 3 WS on the 2009 Nuggets!?!?!?  Who remembers THAT?  Not me.

Consistently the Best Players in NBA Playoff History

I originally was looking for guys with the most 3+ Win Shares seasons (Michael first, LeBron and Magic next), but then I figured that Wilt and Russell and those guys didn't get super long playoffs to put up 3 WS, so I dropped it to 2WS and added that you actually had to be really good -- .200 WS/48 or better.

The .200 WS/48 figure with 2 WS is reachable (5 guys made it this year), yet it does present an obstacle to guys who have put up WS but not been particularly efficient (LeBron 2015 has 3 WS but is at .184).

So, without further ado:

1	Michael Jordan*	1988	1998	CHI	NBA	9
2	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*	1970	1984	TOT	NBA	6
3	Wilt Chamberlain*	1960	1972	TOT	NBA	6
4	LeBron James	2007	2014	TOT	NBA	6
5	Magic Johnson*	1980	1989	LAL	NBA	6
6	Tim Duncan	1999	2014	SAS	NBA	5
7	Shaquille O'Neal	2000	2004	LAL	NBA	5
8	Hakeem Olajuwon*	1986	1997	HOU	NBA	5
9	Chauncey Billups	2004	2009	TOT	NBA	4
10	Jerry West*	1962	1969	LAL	NBA	4
11	Kevin Durant	2011	2013	OKC	NBA	3
12	Bill Russell*	1960	1965	BOS	NBA	3
13	Elgin Baylor*	1960	1961	TOT	NBA	2
14	Larry Bird*	1984	1986	BOS	NBA	2
15	Kobe Bryant	2001	2009	LAL	NBA	2

Interestingly, the top 6 guys are also the guys I have listed in my Top 6 players of all-time.  I have 6-1 as Magic/Duncan/LeBron/Kareem/Wilt/Jordan, and this list, adjusted for alphabetical order, has Duncan and Magic flipped.

I have Shaq at #9 (behind Russell) and this list has him tied for 6th.  I had West 11, here he is tied for 9.    I had Russell 8, here he is tied for 11th.  Bird I had 13, he is tied for 13.  Kobe I had 18, he is tied for 13. 

Some outliers -- Hakeem I had 15, he is tied for 6th here.  Chauncey is not a top 36 player, but he is tied here with Jerry West for 9th.  Kevin Durant I had at 25, and I was, quite frankly, shocked to see his name on this list -- but that will give you pause to think about what an unbelievable career he has had in 7 years.  It will also tell you that if Durant can have 7 more years like his first 7 years that he will be a top 10 player of all-time and maybe better.

NBA Playoffs -- 400 Points, 100 Assista and 200 Rebounds in a Playoff Season

http://bkref.com/tiny/b45EZ

Duncan 2003 -- 593+127+369

Barkley 1993 -- 638+102+326

Bird 1984 -- 632+136+252

Bird 1987 -- 622+165+231

James 2012 -- 697+129+224

James 2015 (one game remaining) -- 569+160+208


Duncan 1089
Barkley 1066
Bird 84  1020
Bird 87  1018

James 12 1050
James 15   937

The most win shares -- Duncan.  The best WS/48 - James 2012.  The most minutes played - Barkley 1026. 

Assuming that James'15 can go 30-10-10, one more game will give him a total of 987.  Two more games at that pace 1037. 

James'15 also needs .2 WS to pass Bird'87 and get out of last on the WS list.  It is likely that James will stay ahead of Bird'87 on WS/48. 

Porzingas -- Pros and cons

When it looks like your biggest drawback as a player is that you are, for lack of a better word, a wuss, that does not bode well for your NBA career. Andrea Bargnani Part II. Good outside offense, nothing else.

Nearly 5 Years Have Passed -- Let's Relive Dan Gilbert's Letter Regarding LeBron -- Annotated By HM

Note 1 -- I don't have the ridiculous font Gilbert used.


In July of 2010m Cleveland Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert posted this letter on the team's website after LeBron James' announcement he was leaving for the Miami Heat.

Dear Cleveland, All Of Northeast Ohio and Cleveland Cavaliers Supporters Wherever You May Be Tonight;

Note 2 -- As of that moment there were a lot of "Cavaliers Supporters" outside NE Ohio, then by 4 years later there were very few; now there are a bunch again.

As you now know, our former hero, who grew up in the very region that he deserted this evening, is no longer a Cleveland Cavalier.

Note 3 -- Ouch

This was announced with a several day, narcissistic, self-promotional build-up culminating with a national TV special of his "decision" unlike anything ever "witnessed" in the history of sports and probably the history of entertainment.

Note 4 -- True.  If LeBron was going to leave, he should have just left.  The Decision, as an event, only made sense if he were staying.

Clearly, this is bitterly disappointing to all of us.
The good news is that the ownership team and the rest of the hard-working, loyal, and driven staff over here at your hometown Cavaliers have not betrayed you nor NEVER will betray you.
There is so much more to tell you about the events of the recent past and our more than exciting future. Over the next several days and weeks, we will be communicating much of that to you.

Note 5 -- We really have our eye on a young man named Anthony Bennett.


You simply don't deserve this kind of cowardly betrayal.
You have given so much and deserve so much more.
In the meantime, I want to make one statement to you tonight:
"I PERSONALLY GUARANTEE THAT THE CLEVELAND CAVALIERS WILL WIN AN NBA CHAMPIONSHIP BEFORE THE SELF-TITLED FORMER 'KING' WINS ONE"

Note 6 -- I wonder if fans ever collected on this alleged "guarantee."


You can take it to the bank.

Note 7 -- I tried, and no bank was willing to take Gilbert's word that the Cavs would win before the Heat.  I wonder if Cavs fans were able to obtain ticket refunds when James beat OKC in June of 2012?

If you thought we were motivated before tonight to bring the hardware to Cleveland, I can tell you that this shameful display of selfishness and betrayal by one of our very own has shifted our "motivation" to previously unknown and previously never experienced levels.
Some people think they should go to heaven but NOT have to die to get there.
Sorry, but that's simply not how it works.

Note 8 -- What the hell does that mean?  LeBron wanted to win a title but didn't want to die (i.e. stay in Cleveland) to do so?  Is that really a positive comment to your fans?  "Look, I know living in Cleveland fucking sucks, but LeBron should have to live here and pay that awful, awful, unthinkable price to win...."

This shocking act of disloyalty from our home grown "chosen one" sends the exact opposite lesson of what we would want our children to learn. And "who" we would want them to grow-up to become.

Note 9 -- What is the quoted "who" supposed to mean?  "Grow up" isn't a hyphenated term.  Come on, Dan, think of other similar usages.  "If I had a party would you show-up?"  "That issue with him is really going to blow-up."  Come on.


But the good news is that this heartless and callous action can only serve as the antidote to the so-called "curse" on Cleveland, Ohio.
The self-declared former "King" will be taking the "curse" with him down south.

Note 10 -- Nope.

And until he does "right" by Cleveland and Ohio, James (and the town where he plays) will unfortunately own this dreaded spell and bad karma.
Just watch.

Note 11 -- I watched.  He and the town where he played won 2 titles and went to 4 Finals while the Cavs slid into obscurity.

Sleep well, Cleveland.
Tomorrow is a new and much brighter day....
I PROMISE you that our energy, focus, capital, knowledge and experience will be directed at one thing and one thing only:
DELIVERING YOU the championship you have long deserved and is long overdue....

Note 12 -- This "energy" resulted in having the #1 pick and selecting Anthony Bennett, resulting in having the #1 pick again.  I cannot figure out the importance of the capitalized  "Delivering you."  If it is that crucial, wouldn't the "you" after I PROMISE be capitalized?  Rich people, clearly, are not always smart people.

Dan Gilbert
Majority Owner
Cleveland Cavaliers

Note 13 -- At least he put his name at the end.  He owns this pile of crap forever rather than just saying "The Cleveland Cavaliers Organization." 

What Have We Learned From LeBron James and Russell Westbrook and Their Ridiculous Usage Rates?

The Usage Rates of post-season James and regular-season Westbrook (sans Durant) have been astronomical.  While Kobe has still managed to hold down the all-time season mark for Usage (38.7% at age 27), had Westbrook had a full year without Durant, he could have been above 40% Usage.

James in the Finals Game 1 had a 45% Usage.  While that dropped under 40% in Game 2, having a 41.4 Usage % over two games is insane.

So, what have we learned? 

1) It is possible to hog the ball this much.  One would imagine that it would be so emotionally and physically exhausting to have the ball this much and have so much pressure on you that there is a physical limit for Usage that must be about 27 year old Kobe level (38.7%).   You'd think that would be the ceiling.

Not true.  If you literally feel that you have no choice except to lose, it appears that Usage of 40-41-45% is possible and the ball hogging player can come back night after night and play and continue at that same rate for a long period of time.

2) It Doesn't Necessarily Lead to Losing.  Westbrook was able to keep his team in the playoff chase and James has kept his Cavs in the title chase through a remarkable level of ball hogging.  Again - this is contrary to what most folks would believe.  Spread the ball around, allow more guys to touch it, you are going to win more.  Do the opposite, you will lose more.  Not necessarily true.

3) Opponents Will Not Necessarily Try to Take the Ball Out of the One Guy's Hands -- you would imagine that the opponent would pick up full court and double team and trap and do anything in its power to make the other guys (who are almost per se not very good) beat them.  You would be wrong.  Teams against the Thunder did not do so, and the Warriors continue to single team James and even go so far as to say that they are more concerned with him passing than scoring 40 points.

4) High One-Player Usage Can Be Used to Speed Up or Slow the Game -- Westbrook will get his shots and get them quickly.  He doesn't provide much thought process to what he is doing.  On the other hand, LeBron's hogging of the ball appears to serve the same purpose that the 1989-91 Minnesota Timberwolves offense did -- to slow the game WAY WAY down and limit possessions by a vastly superior opponent.  (In the 1984-1994 time period, those two Wolves teams ranked 2nd and 8th slowest out of roughly 250 team seasons for pace of play).    Remarkably, a very slow pace of play and isolation basketball has been successful in the past.  Both the 1990s Pistons and the 1992-93 Bulls were amongst the slowest playing teams of their eras, and both featured a ton of half court isolation ball.  Both won titles. 

5) It is Ugly Basketball -- not much else needs to be said on this point.  The Cavs have basically revisited Mike Brown's old "23 Stand" offense where #23 stands 23 feet from the basket and holds the ball for 23 seconds of the shot clock.  The only difference with the Cavs is that they do occasionally screen and they do occasionally run LeBron into the post.  But it is basically 23 Stand.  Westbrook's style is more akin to the guy who you just HATE playing pickup ball with who makes reckless forays into the paint time after time after time, hits 35% of his layups and then complains that he is being fouled every time. 

The one issue that will be interesting to see with LeBron is whether his Usage dips slightly after the first couple games here.  Westbrook about 75% of the way through the year was on path where maintaining his remarkable pace would have surpassed Kobe's all-time mark, but in the last month of so of the season, his rate suffered for whatever reason - one would expect that since Russ has no conscience that it had to be due mostly to fatigue.  The Finals will likely go at least 6 games.  It seems difficult to believe that a 265 pound man can maintain a 41.4% Usage rate over the next 180 minutes of play.  I mean, my God, he is being guarded by 3 very good defenders (Barnes, Iguodala, Green).  Try playing one-on-one until you score 10 baskets against three top flight different defenders who are rotated in.  You probably never reach 10.  Now imagine that after every shot you take you have to go to the other end and possibly be switched onto Steph Curry. 

Not pretty, unlike 48 year old Salma Hayek:

.

Wilt - 1968 - Goes for 53-32-14

Ranking LeBron's Best and Worst Supporting Casts

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/where-this-years-cavs-rank-among-lebrons-nba-finals-supporting-casts/

Very, very interesting stuff.  What this will tell you is that LeBron's supporting casts have generally sucked.  But it also tells you this:

2007 -- 61st best team versus 1th best team the Spurs -- Spurs sweep.

2011 -- 10th best team versus 58th best team the Mavs -- Mavs in 6 - it really was as terrible of a choke job as we imagined.

2012 -- #21 versus the #25 OKC club -- easy win, so a better win that we imagined.

2013 -- #39 club versus the #2 Spurs -- you wonder why the Spurs were SOOOOO pissed that they lost?  They were much better than the Heat.

2014 -- #53 versus #7 Spurs -- Spurs in 5.  Spurs were way better.


2015 -- #60 versus #14 Warriors.     Looks like it should be Warriors in 5.

The Best Option for Kevin Love and the Cavs? A Trade.

I heard Timofey Mozgiv being interviewed the other night.  While apologizing for his English, he was able to convey, quite well, the reason he enjoys playing with LeBron James.  LeBron plays at such a high level and wants to win so badly that you, as a teammate, want to do the best you can so that you do not  "let him down" by how you play.

When I was 25-35 years old, I played on a team with a guy who was the LeBron of our league.  We always won.  I spotted up and hit threes and tried as hard as my body would let me on defense.  We won 7 titles in 8 years.  All the guy had to say after a few bad plays was, "Come on fellas, we don't need that."  And while you could get mad, because you were trying, you really felt more embarrassed to be called out as the guy who was fucking up and letting the team down.    When you have the best guy, you just need to do the small things you are asked to do, try very hard, and not be a burden on the team.

Mozgov understands the limited purpose for which he is needed -- be big, play defense, block shots, score 6 points a game and rebound.  If he happens to score 10-14-18 points, no one is happier for him than LeBron.  It makes LeBron's night easier.

The same can be said of Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith -- Shumpert is a HIGH END defender.  Even on shitty teams, his defensive rating was good.  He can guard both guard spots.  J.R. Smith is, well, a gunner.  He has had something like 13 games in which he has hit at least 8 threes.  That is just silly.  Both guys understand their role.  And you know what?  Shumpert has actually had some good scoring games and J.R. has given far more defensively and rebounding-wise than anyone might expect.  Do what you can do, and if through effort or luck some nights you are better than expected, great. 

Kyrie Irving fought and fought and fought to play the game his own way.  Then LeBron took a week off and Kyrie's club was 19-20 and looking bad.  Kyrie finally realized that his way was the losing way.  Let LeBron run the offense.  He will get tired or rest sometimes, then you can go nuts and take over.  But it has to be related to what LeBron wants to happen.  You are a supporting player.  Play hard, try on defense, and we will get your offense when we need it.  They seem to have come around somewhat as a duo.

Kevin Love?  Um, no.  Kevin Love sees himself as a star player on the same level as LeBron.  He does not feel, in any way, a concern about letting down LeBron James.  Kevin Love plays for himself.  If his team happens to win, all the better, but he isn't going to be happy about scoring one fewer point or grabbing one fewer rebound to gain another win.  He just isn't.  And when you play with a great player, what is the one thing they demand out of you?  Constant defensive effort.  Kevin Love does not provide constant defensive effort.  If his guy gets 25 or 35 or 45, well, he guesses that just happens.  I saw Kenneth Faried beat Love down the floor 5+times for dunks one game at Target Center.  One would think that after time 2-3-4 that the foremost thing in Love's mind would be "I will foul out before he gets another dunk."  One would think wrong. 

The reason that Tristan Thompson is so much better for the Cavs than Kevin Love is that Tristan Thompson is an effort player.  He dominated Paul Millsap on defense and on the boards.  He provided a physical presence.  He provided help defense.  The worst thing that happened to the Atlanta Hawks this playoffs was the loss of Kevin Love.  Paul Millsap would have eaten up Kevin Love.  If you search, you can find a lot of early season footage where guys strolled to the rim against Kevin Love's "help defense" and LeBron stared at him like "Jesus, come on!"  Love didn't care.  He wasn't going to get hurt or in foul trouble.

Traditionally, if you are going to be a top flight defensive club, you need to play two shot blockers.  Thompson qualifies; Love does not.

So where does this leave us?  Well, Love can opt out or he could opt in for a year.  I believe (although I could be wrong) that under either scenario the Cavs could do an extension+trade or a sign-and-trade.  This would allow Love to receive more money.  Now, who has anything to give?  Do the Celtics want to give Sullinger and Smart?  Do the Lakers want to give up Julius Randle or their #2 pick?   Who knows?  But certainly acquiring a player like Okafor or Randle or Sullinger or Smart of Olynyk makes a lot more sense for Cleveland than keeping Kevin Love at some ridiculous salary.  He just isn't a good fit to play with LeBron.  If we was willing to play 20-22 minutes off the bench for the Cavs and have Thompson start and finish games, great.  But that is Ryan Anderson, that is not Kevin Love, especially a Kevin Love who is making $15-$17M a year.

By the end of Cavs/Warriors, LeBron, Jordan and Magic Will Have All Played About the same number of Playoff Minutes

http://bkref.com/tiny/Ph7M9  It will be around 7,400-7,600. 

Clear edges -- Magic with assists, Jordan if you include "Steals+Blocks" as a category, LeBron in fewest fouls

Close ones -- Effective FG%, True shooting %. 


Where will they rank:

Win Shares:
1 Jordan
2 LeBron
3 Magic


Value Above Replacement Player:
1 James
2 Jordan
3 Magic

Box Score Plus-Minus:
1 James
2 Jordan
3 Magic

Titles Won:
1 Jordan
2 Magic
3 James

The Timberwolves: Karl-Anthony Towns or Jahlil Okafor? An Analysis.

As a 26 year Timberwolves season ticket holder, I know their capability to fuck up a one car parade.  So, to figure out what exactly is keeping the Wolves from just saying "We are picking this guy: [fill in the blank]" I actually sat and watched 8 minutes of Karl-Anthony Towns' highlight reel footage.  (As will be explained later, I have no need to watch Jahlil Okafor footage).  This is my resulting analysis.

Karl Anthony Towns: 
I think the thing that surprises me from watching the footage is that Towns isn’t really that explosive.  You don’t see him turning on guys and dunking on them or beating everyone down the floor and dunking.   Most of his dunks are uncontested or come off alley-oops where he is 6 inches above the rim. 

I have heard an Al Horford comparison, and that appears to me to be a good one,  Solid, hard worker, strong, good on both ends.  I would add as a possible comparison -- Rasheed Wallace.

One thing I saw that I really liked is that Towns seems to know how to correctly and efficiently perform every aspect of the game (catch, dribble, pass, fake, shoot, footwork).  I think his greatest skill is probably his shot blocking.  His timing is impeccable;  he gets the ball early and he always seems to be in the right spot.  Towns can guard on the perimeter, and he can guard down low. 

 

Towns seems to be a bit top heavy, and his leaner lower body is a plus while moving in the open court, but he can be pushed off his spot down low. 

Jahlil Okafor:

I am a big Duke fan, so I have watched Okafor play on TV a lot.  Jah will certainly wow you with his size and power.  His dunks are often 12-18 inches above the rim and extremely powerful.  He is tougher inside on offense and certainly heavier and stronger than Towns.  He has explosive spin moves and a whole variety of ways to score.  You will not move Okafor off the block on offense or back him under the basket on defense.  He is a mammoth man, broad through the shoulders and chest and seems even bigger from the waist to the knees.

 

Okafor, however, has gaping holes in his game and when double teamed is not a very effective offensive player.  Defensively he has the ability to be an average post defender, since he is big and has long arms and won’t get pushed under the basket.  But he lacks lateral quickness and does not move his feet well to cut off dribble penetration.  (Note here the comparison to Towns -- Towns can be moved around a little due to his lack of lower body bulk, but all of Okafor's bulk slows him down and reduces his lateral quickness). 

 

Okafor is terrible as a pick and roll defender and (worst of all) his effort defensively is awful.   On run-out opportunities with a chance for Duke to score, Okafor would often be the 3^rd guy down the court for Duke, resulting in some scary dunks in transition.  But on defense talented offensive teams could just torch Duke because Duke had two 6’1” guards back on the break and Okafor jogging behind 40 feet behind the fast break.  I watched at least 20 Duke games on TV;  I never saw Okafor bust his ass back on defense to stop a break or chase a guy down for a block.  Never.  So that is around 600 minutes of play and he had 0 such efforts.  That is embarrassing.  Any team that selects Okafor will have to have a long talk with the kid and say, "Look at this defensive footage -- can you possibly explain this?  Are you just extremely slow in only one direction, or do you not give a damn about defense?"

 

Okafor, however, has a skill set that is very valuable in the NBA regular season – he kills bad teams.  If Duke played a bad team, Okafor would go 20-10 or even 20-20 and shoot 80% from the floor.  He likes to score, and he does not let up or grow tired of scoring against weaker opponents. 

 

 

My Conclusion

Knowing what I know today, I would take Towns #1.  But I am disappointed that his highlights don’t show a guy who is a Dwight Howard type of athlete.  But if he can go 18-11 with 2-3 blocks a game and anchor the defense, that is a very valuable guy to have.

I hear rumors that Flip really likes Okafor's upside.  He is certainly the far more explosive force, but you would really have to bet on substantial improvement in roughly 60% of the game (defense, defensive transition, free throw shooting would need to go from 50% to 70%).    There are certain players that are so raw and strong that you know they have further improvement in them.  I don't see Jah, who has been the best player in his class since 3rd grade, as "raw" or with huge upside potential.  That said - no one in the world could be less interested in playing defense than Blake Griffin was as a rookie, and he has progressed to the point where he is passable.  So, miracles do happen..  

Kobe -- Soon to Be Quitter

http://hoopshype.com/rumors/r/5W3H/next-season-will-be-kobe-bryants-last-with-lakers-says-team-gm-mitch-kupchak

Quitter.  Will be interesting to see if the Lakers take Russell in the draft and move Kobe to the bench.  (Laugh stifled).

The KG/Chris Paul Puzzle

Back in the day, Kevin Garnett regularly led the Minnesota Timberwolves to the playoffs.  From 1997 through 2004, Garnett was the star player on the only good teams the Wolves ever had.  The Wolves regularly lost playoff series.  As a result, Garnett was pilloried by the media as "not that good."  He went to Boston and won a title, and suddenly he gained a great deal of respect, even though by the time he got to Boston he was 75% of the palyer he had been in, say, 2002.  I have him as the #22 player of all-time.

Chris Paul, as I have previously reported is ranked by me as the 26th best player of all-time.  But he has never played in a conference final.  Even I have deducted points from Chris Paul's resume because he has failed to win playoff games. 

Is it fair to just destroy NBA players for not winning titles or reaching the finals?  I mean, as I have said on Twitter - do we really believe that Matt Dellavadova (I am not looking up the spelling) is a better player than Derrick Rose?  Would we say that after the Clips/Rockets series result we know that Josh Smith is a better player than Blake Griffin?  Prigioni (sp?) better than Chris Paul?  All of that sounds just ridiculous.  Would any idiot take that position?

Well, we have seen people say Dirk is better than LeBron and Kawhi Leonard is better than LeBron - right?  Remember that?  A lot of people going through and saying, "Well, Kawhi really shut him down and he scored easy baskets on the other end...."  If you think Kawhi Leonard will be ranked as having a better basketball career than LeBron James, you are a moron.

Similarly, there are those who cannot accept that Wilt was a better player than Russell.  Now, the voters who voted first-team all-NBA back when they both played preferred Wilt.  And Wilt once had 55 rebounds in a game against Russell, and Wilt was far better statistically.....but Russell won titles.  So, ergo, people assume that Wilt was worse.  If Wilt couldn't will Tom Meschery to a title over Havlicek and Jones and Jones and Saunders and Heinsohn, Wilt just wasn't that good.

Have we lost our minds?  Is Luc Longley (3 titles) better than Moses Malone (one title)?  Is Will Perdue (5 titles) better than Karl Malone (0 titles)? 

We have 82 games a year to evaluate players, and players who deserve to be evaluated have played at least 8 seasons.  You can take those 600+ games and evaluate whether the player plays well and helps his team, or whether he is someone who isn't really that good.   After 600+ games, Chris Paul is obviously very, very, very good.

Chris Paul (except for one very bad games against OKC) does not play poorly in the playoffs.  His stats are good to great every year.  Kevin Garnett always played his ass off in the playoffs.  He had a couple rough years, but overall, he has very good playoff stats.  But people for years blew him up for losing.  The same thing is happening now with Chris Paul.  (Today's "hot take" - Paul is no better than Carmelo Anthony.  Really, wow, go review playoff stats for both guys.)    It doesn't matter whether Paul plays well, it just matters that he hasn't won it all or come very close.  http://www.aol.com/article/2015/05/17/chris-paul-quotes-ricky-bobby-after-game-7-loss/21184319/?cps=gravity_4518_-2213031448139548500  If you are not first, you are last.


So what, really, is the perception here based upon?  Well, there are two factors at stake - one obvious and the other not so obvious.

First -- even people who do not follow "Win Shares" can understand that early playoff exits means very few Win Shares.  Paul and Garnett both suffer badly when you compare their 10 WS regular seasons and their lack of 2+ WS post-seasons.

Of active players, guys with the most 10+ WS seasons:

Duncan and Dirk 12 seasons
Kobe and LeBron 11
KG - 9
Paul and Pierce 8


Of the active players with the most 2+ WS seasons in the playoffs:

LeBron 8 seasons
Kobe and Duncan 7
Durant, KG, Ginobili, Wade 4

Tied for 16th -- Chris Paul, 2

So Factor #1 is that being so consistently good in the regular season sets the bar very high. 


Factor #2 is kind of a tricky one -- does your team win even though you don't play well?  Tony Parker has won 4 titles.  Do you know how many 2 WS playoffs he has had???  1.  In his entire playoff career, he has accounted for less than 9 Wins Above a Replacement Player.  He has played 203 games.  Kobe's WS/48 during the Lakers' first title with him?  0.115.  Not good. 

When your team wins, you get the reputation as a "winner" even if you had little to do with it, or were just OK.  So there is a little luck involved.