25. James Harden - an 11 spot move up in 3 years for the bulky and bearded one. Harden, based solely upon regular season performance, is a top 20 player. Has an MVP, He is 6x First team All-NBA and is shooting for 7. He has finished in the Top 3 of MVP balloting 5 times (1-2-2-2-3 plus he has a 5th). He has led the league in scoring. He has led the league in assists. He has a +11 net rating. He has an adjusted shooting of over +2,200. He has 142 WS playing at a .226 rate. He has a 68 VORP, playing at a 6.9 BPM. Players who have done that through their first 13 years? Kareem, Michael, LeBron, David Robinson, Chris Paul, Magic Johnson.
Now, Harden has reached one Finals and crapped the bed there as a young player, and his playoff stats are nowhere near as good as his regular season stats. His style of play is virtually unwatchable (of his plus 2,200 adjusted shooting, 80% of it is due to free throws). When you reach this point, you are competing against a ton of guys with multiple MVP and multiple Finals MVPs and multiple titles. And you are also competing against guys who have 170-200 Win Shares. But much as I despise him, I will move Harden all of the way up here.
24. Steph Curry - an 11 spot move up in 3 years for Curry. He now has 109 Win Shares and has added a 3rd first-team All-NBA. He has MVP placements of 1-1-5-6-6. His adjusted shooting is 2,230 (he is the flip of Harden - 80% of Steph's plus is NOT free throws). He was unanimous MVP, the key player on three Finals teams and winner of one of those. He was the second banana to Durant on two more title teams. So, he has 5 Finals and has won 3. Most players never reach 5 Finals. His lack of a Finals MVP and his humiliating loss to Kyrie Irving are pretty bad demerits. He is 63rd in WS and 30th in VORP. His longevity marks are not great. Now, by 2024 will he put up 40 more Win Shares and 15 more VORP and deserve to be considered a Top 15 player? Maybe, but that is not the way I would bet. Again, let's step back from "the Warriors are a dynasty" talk and consider his stats versus Cousy and Nash. Nash has 2 MVPs and a 2nd, I have him at 36. Cousy has 6 titles, an MVP and 10 first team all-NBAs. I have him 32. I think, if anything, I am giving Curry a bit too much credit up here at 24. But I will stick with 24 for now. He can reapply in 3 years.
23. Dirk Nowitzki - now, Dirk was only 4x first-team All-NBA, but his MVP placements are 1-3-3-6-7. Here are his Win Share placements for a 10 year stretch.
| 2000-01 NBA 14.6 (2nd) |
| 2001-02 NBA 13.4 (3rd) |
| 2002-03 NBA 16.1 (2nd) |
| 2003-04 NBA 11.5 (6th) |
| 2004-05 NBA 15.6 (2nd) |
| 2005-06 NBA 17.7 (1st) |
| 2006-07 NBA 16.3 (1st) |
| 2007-08 NBA 12.9 (7th) |
| 2008-09 NBA 10.9 (9th) |
| 2009-10 NBA 12.3 (5th) |
His longevity is astounding - 8th in Win Shares, 9th in VORP, 6th in points, 27th in rebounds. 4th in games played. He has a regular MVP, a Finals MVP and but for a fouling festival against DWade would have had 2 titles and 2 FMVPs. One of only 3 players to put up 5 playoff WS in a season (2006). Plus 2,300 adjusted shooting. On a per-minute basis, Harden and Curry have had better career numbers, but Dirk has almost double Curry's WS and about 70 more WS than Harden. 12 players have 23 WS and 11 VORP in the playoffs. Dirk is one (Curry and Harden are not).
No comments:
Post a Comment