Pre-Draft Thoughts

While the trend to pick "one and done" guys and foreign players makes evaluation difficult, here are my thoughts on the 2017 NBA Draft before it ever happens.

Guys I Like

1) I think the most talented player in the draft is Josh Jackson of Kansas.  He reminds me a lot of Andrew Wiggins.  Big guard or small forward, freakish athlete, hard to stop when he is motivated.  His weaknesses are also the same as Wiggy - not a great shooter, doesn't always play hard. 


2) Jayson Tatum, Duke -- I think the Celtics should prefer Tatum over Jackson.  They already have freakish athlete Jaylen Brown.  Tatum just seems more like a Brad Stevens player in the mold of  guys Stevens likes to play.  Tatum's primary weaknesses are that he is an average shooter and average ballhandler.  What people do not realize about Tatum is that he is an incredible all-around player (plus defender, plus rebounder, plus shotblocker, great hands, very good passer).  

One rap on Tatum is that he is a poor isolation player who tries to play too much isolation.  True - but if you are a good NBA team with a good NBA coach, you will figure out that Tatum actually is an exceptional complementary player to your true superstars. 

I think if he goes to Boston he will fit in great.  If he goes to Phoenix or Sacto, and they try to run stuff for him, that will be bad.

3) Markell Fultz - never seen play live, but his highlight packages remind me of Allan Houston, smooth shooter, can drive, 85% athlete.  I do not see Fultz as a superstar.  I think only Jackson has the athletic ability combined with size to be a superstar in the LeBron/Durant/Kobe mode.

4) Lonzo Ball -- you have to wonder what happened against Kentucky, but overall, the guy is a big PG and seems capable of running an offense right away.  Magic appears to like him, and Magic should know PGs. The name Jason Kidd comes up a lot.


5) Zach Collins -- if you watch his highlight and lowlight packages, two guys come to mind -- Karl-Anthony Towns and Christian Laettner.  He can do everything you need to be done on a basketball court.  His only physical limitation is strength, and one hopes that this is something he could gain with age. 

6) Dennis Smith, Jr. -- to be a star NBA player, you generally need a special athletic talent.  Dennis Smith has unbelievable athletic talent and has decent shooting form (doesn't always go in), so he is definitely worth a shot.  Feast or famine type guy -- will he try?  What is his level of effort? You cannot be a little guy AND lack effort in the NBA.

Guys I Do Not Like


7) Lauri Markkenen -- I just cannot get over his inability to guard Xavier's awful big man at the key moment of that game.  He is a 7" shooter, which is fine if your team is extremely good and plays at such a rapid pace that he can get wide open shots.  I don't see many teams fitting that bill.  if you want a stretch 4, Houston is trying to give away Ryan Anderson.

8) Jonathan Isaac -- I saw Florida State play several games this year.  When I watched, he never stood out as a player on his own team.  That is bad.  When you watched Jayson Tatum play for Duke, sometimes he was good, sometimes he was bad, but you always knew he was involved in the game and doing everything he could to win.  Isaac from a talent perspective reminds me of a taller Corey Brewer.  I am sure you could get the original version for cheap.

9) Frank Ntilikina -- one scouting report stated that "he is so raw offensively that it is impossible to evaluate him".  Um, OK.  His highlights tape is him playing good defense, his weaknesses tape is of him getting stripped of the ball while bringing it up the court and of him shooting numerous airballs.  I don't think a defense-first guard who cannot be trusted to bring the ball up should be a top 10 pick.

Duke Guys and Kentucky Guys


Look, I am not going to lie.  I have a genuine distaste for Kentucky guys and a love for most Duke guys, so I cannot be completely objective (I did review KAT's video highlights pre-draft and recommended he be picked over Okafor, so in extreme cases I can be fair).


Monk and Fox -- I think you need to give them each the benefit of the doubt.  Calipari's guys have generally over-performed as pros.  I mean, even one of the Harrisons saw rotation time.  If you are sitting there and you cannot pick one of my top 6 guys I like, picking a Kentucky guy is always a good idea.

Kennard and Harry Giles  --    Luke Kennard is an excellent basketball player.  For his size he is a plus-plus shooter and rebounder; he can finish with either hand; he will move his feet on defense and is pretty strong.  He is going to struggle some with lateral movement, and I do not see him as a steals+blocks guy.  He may never be a starter for a good team.  But I think he could provide bench scoring and get extremely hot in certain circumstances.  Top 17 pick,.

Harry Giles -- great hands, great rebounder, can jump straight up into the air a long way, might actually be 6'10" in bare feet, very good FT shooter, has some limited post moves.

The HUGE question with Harry Giles is whether he can move laterally at all.  At Duke his out on the floor defense and interior defense were both virtually impossible to watch.  Can he stay on the floor against bench players and do enough to contribute?  I don't know.

If by some MIRACLE his knees get 100% better, there is so much potential there - you can see why he was the #1 overall talent in HS. 


VERY low #1; 23 or lower.

What NBA Player Has Had the Most "Good Games" and "Great Games" Since 1983-84?

If you assume that a "Game Score" of 15 is good, 22.5 is really good and 30 and better is great, here are your guys with the most of these games in either the regular season or the playoffs since 1983-84 (when basketball-reference.com's database starts).


Some observations:  1) if you assume Magic and Bird were denied about 4 seasons each by the database cutoff, and give them their averages per season, they still don't rank top 5 in any category (except Bird in 30+ games); 2) Michael and LeBron are clearly the two best guys; 3) Game Score stat appears to favor offensive players and disfavor players such as Duncan and Garnett; 4) 7 guys in the top 10 on all 3 lists - Karl Malone, James, Jordan, Kobe, Shaq, Hakeem, Barkley.  5) surprising entries -- Nique????  not only present, but goes 16/14/15th place;  Kevin Johnson!  Chris Mullin!


I have always said that the belief that Steph Curry is substantially better than James Harden or Russell Westbrook (or has had a significantly better career) is not justified.  They are all very similar in my eyes.  Look at the "very good games" list - virtually identical.  On the "excellent games" list, Harden and Curry are almost identical while Westbrook trails slightly behind.  One would certainly be surprised that ESPN had Harden ranked in the 80s and Steph around 20.



* = Hall of Famer


Game Score 15 and above ("Good" Games):

	Player	Pos	From	To	Count
1	Karl Malone*	F	1986	2004	1190
2	LeBron James	F	2004	2017	1045
3	Michael Jordan*	G	1985	2003	1031
4	Kobe Bryant	G	1997	2016	955
5	Tim Duncan	F	1998	2016	953
6	Shaquille O'Neal*	C	1993	2011	947
7	Hakeem Olajuwon*	C	1985	2002	918
8	Dirk Nowitzki	F	1999	2017	883
9	Kevin Garnett	F	1996	2013	854
10	Charles Barkley*	F	1985	2000	846
11	John Stockton*	G	1985	2003	831
12	David Robinson*	C	1990	2003	718
13	Clyde Drexler*	G	1984	1998	712
14	Paul Pierce	F	1999	2016	668
15	Patrick Ewing*	C	1986	2002	666
16	Dominique Wilkins*	F	1984	1999	655
17	Dwyane Wade	G	2004	2017	653
18	Reggie Miller*	G	1988	2005	641
19	Chris Paul	G	2006	2017	635
20	Kevin Durant	F	2008	2017	631
21	Magic Johnson*	G	1984	1996	631 -- also played pre-1983
22	Pau Gasol	F	2002	2017	621
23	Gary Payton*	G	1991	2007	617
24	Allen Iverson*	G	1997	2010	614
25	Scottie Pippen*	F	1988	2004	607
26	Jason Kidd	G	1995	2013	601
27	Carmelo Anthony	F	2004	2017	591
28	Ray Allen	G	1997	2014	570
29	Steve Nash	G	1997	2013	558
30	Larry Bird*	F	1984	1992	542    -- also played pre-1983

Game Score over 22.5 -- "Very Good Games"


1 Michael Jordan*  672
2 LeBron James  648
3 Karl Malone*  575
4 Shaquille O'Neal*  491
5 Hakeem Olajuwon*  484
6 Kobe Bryant  464
7 Charles Barkley*  456
8 David Robinson*  382
9 Dirk Nowitzki  367
10 Kevin Durant 330
11 Tim Duncan  328
12 Magic Johnson*  327  -- also played pre-1983
13 Larry Bird*     323 -- also played pre-1983
14 Dominique Wilkins 313
15 Clyde Drexler*  312
16 Kevin Garnett  311
17 Allen Iverson* 305
18 Dwyane Wade  301
19 John Stockton* 291
20 Chris Paul  284
21 Patrick Ewing* 279
22 Paul Pierce  230
23 Carmelo Anthony  228
24 Tracy McGrady 219
25 Russell Westbrook  219
26 Stephen Curry  216
27 James Harden  216
28 Kevin Johnson  207
29 Vince Carter  202
30 Gary Payton*  200




Game Score over 30 -- "Excellent" Games


1 Michael Jordan*  305
2 LeBron James  186
3 Charles Barkley*  161
4 Hakeem Olajuwon* 152
5 Shaquille O'Neal*  149
6 Karl Malone*  148
7 Kobe Bryant  127
8 Larry Bird*  119  - also played pre-1983
9 David Robinson*  119
10 Magic Johnson*  99 - also played pre-1983
11 Dwyane Wade  94
12 Allen Iverson*  92
13 Clyde Drexler* 88
14 Kevin Durant  85
15 Dominique Wilkins* 81
16 Patrick Ewing* 77
17 James Harden  77
18 Stephen Curry  75
19 Chris Paul   69
20 Dirk Nowitzki  67
21 Tracy McGrady* 64
22 Russell Westbrook 62
23 Tim Duncan  61
24 Vince Carter 57
25 Kevin Garnett  56
26 Kevin Johnson 50
27 John Stockton* 50
28 Paul Pierce  46
29 Chris Mullin*  44
30 Carmelo Anthony 43 

Key "Game Score" For LeBron in the Finals -- Must Reach 22.5

www.basketball-reference.com has a stat called "Game Score" which generally indicates how much production a player has had in a particular game.  You include all of the player's statistics for the game, and they are then converted into one stat -- Game Score.


A decent player having an OK game should have a Game Score of 10.


15 is a pretty good night.


20 is very good


25 and above is excellent


Anything above 30 is noteworthy.  You can get game Scores way up in the 40s, 50s and even 60+ (3 guys - Jordan, Kobe, Karl Malone).




OK, so to evaluate what level of play is necessary for a LeBron James-led team to win a Finals game, I used the site's sorting mechanism and came up with some amazing information:


Game Score under 10 -- LeBron 0-3 in the Finals


Game Score 10-20 -- LeBron 2-10 (.167 winning percentage)


Game Score 20-22.4 -- LeBron 2 and 8  (.200 winning percentage).


Let's stop there.  It makes virtually no difference whether LeBron has a 10 or a 22.4 Game Score.  His team will not win those games except in the rarest of instances.




Game Score 22.5-25 -- 3-1 (.750)


Game Score 25-30 -- 6-1 (..857)


Game Score 30 and above -- 4-1 (.800)




This is really remarkable.  LeBron has won 17 Finals games.  13 of those where his Game Score is over 22.5.   Only 4 with his Game Score below that figure.


So - there is your cutoff.  Go to basketball-reference's front page tomorrow and it will have the 5 best Game Score's posted.  If LeBron is below 22.5, he almost certainly lost.  Above 22.5, he almost certainly won. 


According to this Site, a Game Score of 22.5 is basically 27 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, shooting 50% and 3 turnovers.  So that is your cutoff.  Better - LeBron almost always wins, Worse - he almost always loses.