Wednesday, March 31, 2021
All That Work, and We End Up With the Same 36 Guys
Sunday, March 28, 2021
Kahwi Doesn't Make the Top 36
Having Gilmore, Payton, Nash, Ewing and Kawhi Leonard left, I have to drop Kawhi. He has a good argument for Top 36 based primarily on his 2 FMVPs and his 20 playoff Win Shares and 10 playoff VORP. That said, however, he will enter April with under 85 Win Shares. He has never been MVP. His best MVP placements are 2-3-5-9-10. He is a 5x all-star and 2x first-team All-NBA.
He would be at or near the very bottom of the Top 36 in virtually every regular season category I look at. When I look at someone like Gary Payton - Kawhi is a better per-minute player, but he has 60 fewer Win Shares, 4 fewer all-star seasons, the same number of first team All-NBAs, and Gary has 9x first-team all-defense to Leonard's 3.
The most comparable player, if Leonard stopped playing today, would be Willis Reed (MVP, 2 FMVPs 75 Win Shares). And I just hate going backwards on a guy. When I put Curry "in" in 2018, he had 2 MVPs, two titles and 93 WS. He had a superior resume to Leonard's by a little, and he really almost did not make it in 2018.
So - Leonard is out.
We have 37 left. The 36 from 2018 and Artis Gilmore. So I need to take the next 3 days and see if Gilmore should be in and one of Payton/Nash/Ewing should be out.
We may end up with the exact same Top 36 as 2018, just re-ranked. I couldn't add Kawhi (think Reed) or Westbrook (think Iverson), or Giannis (think young McAdoo), or Anthony Davis (think Neil Johnston or Dolph Schayes).
This is not to say that these 4 guys cannot add 30 Win Shares and some All-NBAs and titles by April 2024, but they are just not there yet. There is no shame in being a top 40-50-60 player for now. Your goal ought to be to earn your spot, not be given it in the hopes that you can prove yourself later.
HM
Tuesday, March 23, 2021
33 Guys In the Safe Pile
Abdul-Jabbar
Barkley
Barry
Baylor
Bird
Bryant
Chamberlain
Cousy
Curry
Duncan
Durant
Erving
Garnett
Harden
Havlicek
James
Magic Johnson
Jordan
Karl Malone
Moses Malone
Mikan
Nowitzki
Olajuwon
O'Neal
Paul
Pettit
Pippen
Robinson
Robertson
Russell
Stockton
Wade
West
Fight for the Final 3 - Ewing, Gilmore, Leonard, Nash, Payton
Let's Save 5 and cut 5, leave 5 to be ranked
We will cut (italics) Kidd (shooting mostly), Howard (BPM, short peak), Drexler (All-NBA shortfall), Gervin (advanced stats) and Schayes (failure to make 35th anniversary team hurts, never MVP).
We will move (bold) Cousy, Havlicek, Pippen, Paul and Wade into the safe pile. Mostly titles, except for Paul, who if he had Wade's titles would be a top 10 player based upon advanced stats.
There remains 4 guys from which we will choose 2 to cut - Kawhi Leonard, Patrick Ewing, Steve Nash, Gary Payton and Artis Gilmore.
1) Kawhi Leonard - +18 Net Rating, 81/.221, 6.8/39
Adj. shooting + 880
2 titles, 2 FMVPs, 2x/2x, 2/3/5/9/10
2) Bob Cousy - 91.1 WS/.139, 6 Titles, 1 MVP, 1/3/4/4/6/6/8 10x 1st Team
3) George Gervin - +5 Net Rating, 116/.157, 2.5/40.1
Adj. Shooting +1700
5x/4x 2/2/3/5/6/9
4) Dwyane Wade - +5 Net Rating
+605 Adj Shooting, 3 titles, FMVP
121/.162, 5.0/62.8
2x/3x/3x, 3/5/6/7/8/10/10
5) Scottie Pippen - +6 Net Rating, 125/.146, 4.1/63.2
6 titles, 3x/2x/2x, 3/5/7/9/10
6) Patrick Ewing +7 Net Rating, 126/.150, 2.9/50.1
1x/6x 4/4/4/5/5/5/8
7) Steve Nash + 7 Net Rating, 130/.164, 3.0/48.2
3x/2x/2x, 1/1/2/8/9/9/11
8) John Havlicek - 131/.136 Adjusted shooting negative
8 titles, 4x/7x 4/5/6/7/9/10/10
9) Clyde Drexler - +9 Net Rating, 136 WS/.173, 5.4BPM, 70.2 VORP
1x/2x/2x -- MVP 2/5/6/10 1 Title
10) Dwight Howard - Plus 10 Net Rating, 136/.172 2.0/38.2
1 title, 5x/1x/2x, 2/4/4/5/7
11) Jason Kidd -- +5 Net Rating, 139/.133, 3.8/73.4
Adj. shooting -800, 5x/1x, 1 title
2/5/8/8/9/11
12) Dolph Schayes - 142/.192, Adj Shooting + 1322
6x/6x 2/4/5/6/8/8
13) Gary Payton +5 Net Rating, 145/.148, 3.3/62.5
2x/5x/2x (9x all-D), 3/6/6/6/6/6/9/9
14) Chris Paul +17 Net Rating, 185/.242, 7.4/87.9
Adj. shooting +1300
4x/4x/1x 2/3/4/5/6/6/7/7
15) Artis Gilmore +14 Net Rating 190/.193, 3.1/51.6
1 Title, 1 MVP, 5x 1st ABA, 1/2/4/8/8/10
Moving From 50 Down to 43
We are going to drop 7. Goodbye to-
Giannis
Willis Reed
Anthony Davis
Neil Johnston
Allen Iverson
Walt Frazier
Elvin Hayes.
The At-Risk Pile, Listed By Fewest to Most WS:
Italics means you are gone.
Antetokounmpo +11 Net Rating, 72WS/.185 WS48, 5.3BPM, 34.1 VORP
2x First Team, MVP - 1/1/6/7
Reed 75/.156, Adjusted shooting + 651
Leonard - +18 Net Rating, 81/.221, 6.8/39
Adj. shooting + 880
2 titles, 2 FMVPs, 2x/2x, 2/3/5/9/10
Davis - +14 Net Rating, 86WS/.218, 6.3 BPM, 39.7 VORP
4X 1st team, 3/5/6/9, 1 Title
Cousy - 91.1 WS/.139, 6 Titles, 1 MVP, 3/4/4/6/6/8 10x 1st Team
N. Johnston - 92/,241 Adj Shooting +1600
4x/1x 1 title 4th in career WS/48, led league in WS 5x
Iverson - Minus 1 net rating, 99/.126, 3.2/49.7
3x/3x/1x, 1/4/5/6/7/9/10
Frazier - +6 Net Rating, 114/.176
4x/2x 4/6/7/11 2 titles, FMVP
Gervin - +5 Net Rating, 116/.157, 2.5/40.1
Adj. Shooting +1700
5x/4x 2/2/3/5/6/9
Wade - +5 Net Rating
+605 Adj Shooting, 3 titles, FMVP
121/.162, 5.0/62.8
Hayes 121/.116
1 title 3x/3x 3/3/5/7/8/10
Pippen - +6 Net Rating, 125/.146, 4.1/63.2
6 titles, 3x/2x/2x, 3/5/7/9/10
Ewing +7 Net Rating, 126/.150, 2.9/50.1
1x/6x 4/4/4/5/5/5/8
Nash + 7 Net Rating, 130/.164, 3.0/48.2
3x/2x/2x, 1/1/2/8/9/9/11
Havlicek - 131/.136 Adjusted shooting negative
8 titles, 4x/7x 4/5/6/7/9/10/10
Drexler - +9 Net Rating, 136 WS/.173, 5.4BPM, 70.2 VORP
1x/2x/2x -- MVP 2/5/6/10 1 Title
Howard - Plus 10 Net Rating, 136/.172 2.0/38.2
1 title, 5x/1x/2x, 2/4/4/5/7
Kidd -- +5 Net Rating, 139/.133, 3.8/73.4
Adj. shooting -800, 5x/1x, 1 title
2/5/8/8/9/11
Schayes - 142/.192, Adj Shooting + 1322
6x/6x 2/4/5/6/8/8
Payton +5 Net Rating, 145/.148, 3.3/62.5
2x/5x/2x (9x all-D), 3/6/6/6/6/6/9/9
Paul +17 Net Rating, 185/.242, 7.4/87.9
Adj. shooting +1300
4x/4x/1x 2/3/4/5/6/6/7/7
Gilmore +14 Net Rating 190/.193, 3.1/51.6
1 Title, 1 MVP, 5x 1st ABA, 1/2/4/8/8/10
Stopping at 50, Taking Stock
When you reach 50 guys for 36 spots, it is a good idea to stop and say, "Hey, let's do a reality check and see if what I have left is similar to what someone else has." If all 50 are the same, you are probably cheating/plagiarizing. If 30 of 50 are the same, whatever source you are using is wildly wrong...or you are.
For my reality check, I used ESPN's last Top 74 list. We have 43 the same. 7 different. Now, what I am evaluating (best performance, best career) is slightly different from what ESPN said its folks were evaluating (you get one guy at his absolute best, who do you take). But I don't really think that is what ESPN was doing. You take ABA MVP Doc or 1983 MVP Moses and they are not top 5? You take Shaq the one year he got in shape and he isn't a top 5 player? I think they sort of used the "best at his peak" stuff as a tiebreaker for tough calls.
Anyway, the 7 different folks:
ESPN has and I do not
Wes Unseld
Reggie Miller
Bill Walton
Nique
Westbrook
McHale
Isiah Thomas
I Have and They Do Not
Gary Payton
Clyde Drexler
Willis Reed
Neil Johnston
Artis Gilmore
Dwight Howard
Dolph Schayes
I am perfectly happy with my guys as opposed to their guys. They have 3 MVPs, I have 2. They have 9 First-Team All-League awards, I have 24(!). They have 8 titles and I have 8 titles. I am more than happy with my 7 versus their 7.
So, I am happy with my 50 to pick from. Now we have to find a way to sort. Well, I am not dropping any of my top 26 guys from April 2018 down by more than 10 spots. There haven't been that many great new players in 3 years, and I am not going to admit I was that far off in 2018. Harden and Curry have had 3 good years and have cemented their spots (probably moving up), so they go into the safe pile. That gives me as "safe" pile of 28 guys:
James Harden Steph Curry John Stockton Rick Barry
Elgin Baylor Dirk Nowitzki Kevin Durant Kevin Garnett
Charles Barkley Julius Erving Moses Malone Hakeem Olajuwon
Bob Pettit David Robinson George Mikan Karl Malone
Kobe Bryant Oscar Robertson Jerry West Larry Bird
Shaquille O'Neal Bill Russell Magic Johnson Tim Duncan
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Wilt Chamberlain LeBron James Michael Jordan
The "At Risk" Pile Has 22 Guys fighting for 8 spots:
Steve Nash Gary Payton Patrick Ewing Dwyane Wade
Bob Cousy Scottie Pippen John Havlicek Chris Paul
Giannis Antetokounmpo Anthony Davis Clyde Drexler Walt Frazier
Taking It Down from 62 - Gotta Cut to 50
Again, not necessarily the Top 50 players of all-time, but these are going to be the 50 guys who have some decent argument of being Top 36, meaning they have to have very high high-end performance numbers and a lot of accolades/awards.
Out
Ray Allen - certainly longevity and shooting greatness, two titles, but never above 9th in MVP and never 1st team all-NBA.
Dave Cowens - look, he was a great player, but he doesn't have 90 WS, the year he was MVP he was named 2nd team All-NBA and never was 1st team, not in Top 100 in WS or VORP, Patrick Ewing has 3 seasons better than Cowens' best WS season.
Mel Daniels - certainly 2 MVPs and 4 Top 3 finishes in the ABA get him this far, but his 64 WS and pretty poor advanced stats, plus the fact that he was only great for 6 seasons ends his chances
Billy Cunningham - was ABA MVP and is a great trivia answer due t averaging 20-10-4, but his overall placements and advanced stats aren't up to his 5X all-league placements.
Ed Macauley - Macauley was on the 25th anniversary team and has an amazing .196 WS/48 (25th best ever). He has great shooting numbers. His problem is his resume does not quite match up with his contemporaries Mikan, Schayes, and Johnston, all of whom will advance while he stays behind.
Reggie Miller - fabulous advanced stats and adjusted shooting stats, sad to leave him way down here, but I cannot see him as competing for the Top 36 spot when he was never considered a Top 10 player by voters (never Top 10 MVP, never 1st or 2nd team All-NBA).
Robert Parish - His longevity stats are frightening, and I think a good argument could be made that while McHale was wildly overrated Parish was wildly underrated as a player. 3 titles. That said, never first-team All-NBA and 1X Top 6 MVP. I am cutting league MVPs at this point for not being even better. It doesn't seem right to leave in Parish, though, again, I think his career deserves more love.
Paul Pierce - wonderful counting stats and wonderful advanced stats (23rd in VORP, 25th in WS). The problem, like with Miller, is he was never an MVP candidate (7th one year) and he was never first team All-NBA (1 2nd, 3 3rds). Sort of pissed away his early career ability, could have been a Top 36 player...is not.
Isiah Thomas - Net Rating: minus 1 (typical great player, plus 10-15), WS 81 (would be lowest on my 2018 list), adjusted shooting - negative 770. You could overcome all of this if you were like 10X all-NBA and 4x MVP, Isiah is 3x 1st team and never finished Top 4 MVP...ever. He also has just 1 Top 7 MVP placement. Wildly overrated.
Russell Westbrook - love Russ, but he doesn't have quite the resume I need. He is negative 700 in adjusted shooting, he is 2x 1st team All-NBA, but he does have 5 Top 5 MVP finishes. His zero titles hurt him. Has an argument to cling to the bottom of the top 36 like Nash and Wade and Payton did in 2018, and to be considered after this entry like Kidd and Iverson and Frazier and Gervin (all still alive). When I ran a poll on who should be considered for Top 36 among younger active players, Russ received 0 votes. Still playing, so we will consider him again in 2024 if I am still around. 3 good years could be the charm.
Wes Unseld - won the MVP his rookie year, key cog to the excellent Bullets teams of the 70s, but he was never again all league and he never again finished Top 7 MVP. Great player, not Top 36.
Dominique Wilkins - He was only 1x first team All-NBA, but he is lurking around the top 30-40 in advanced stats. Nique is a great scorer and probably deserves more love from me, but we have to start cutting to 50 and then get to 36. He sort of sticks out as a guy to cut. Never a champion, never a conference champion, never appeared in a conference final. Playoff WS/48 of .079. 51st in MVP Award Shares. Just not quite there.
Remaining 50 Guys
1 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3 Charles Barkley
4 Rick Barry
5 Elgin Baylor
6 Larry Bird
7 Kobe Bryant
9 Bob Cousy
11 Anthony Davis
12 Clyde Drexler
14 Kevin Durant
15 Julius Erving
17 Walt Frazier
18 Kevin Garnett
19 George Gervin
20 Artis Gilmore
22 John Havlicek
23 Elvin Hayes
24 Dwight Howard
25 Allen Iverson
26 LeBron James
27 Magic Johnson
28 Neil Johnston
30 Jason Kidd
33 Moses Malone
36 Dirk Nowitzki
37 Hakeem Olajuwon
38 Shaquille O'Neal
41 Bob Pettit
43 Willis Reed
44 Oscar Robertson
47 Dolph Schayes
Thursday, March 18, 2021
77 Is Too Many - Let's Pick the Low-Hanging Fruit Down to 62
Now, again, these are not the top 62 players of all-time. They are a list of 62 guys that I believe are deserving of some consideration for a top 36 position. Example - Mel Daniels was 2x ABA MVP, we ought to consider him. Same with Unseld and Cowens who were NBA MVPs. In another category, Macauley and Johnston have great resumes, so while they get no love today and played during Ike's Presidency, we ought to look closely at them.
For this entry, I am going to remove the guys who (obviously in my opinion) have no good argument for Top 36;
Jimmy Butler (0 1st team All-NBA),
Pau Gasol (0 MVP votes),
Rudy Gobert (1 MVP vote),
Bernard King (not in top 100 in WS or VORP, 75th in BPM)),
Nikola Jokic (just hasn't played enough, building a great resume, but has a ways to go),
Damian Lillard (1x first team, never above 4th in MVP),
Jerry Lucas (never finished above 5th in MVP and only above 9th once),
Bob McAdoo - 5 great years, not top 100 WS or VORP
Kevin McHale - 1x First-team All-NBA, 0X 2nd or 3rd team.
Alonzo Mourning - had 3 exceptional years.
Dennis Rodman - 2x 3rd team All-NBA, 21 career VORP. Never top 9 in MVP.
KAT - not belonging in this group at all, 3 excellent years so far, 52 WS.
Bill Walton - 1.5 great years, 1 very good bench year, not much else.
James Worthy - probably not a top 100 player, stands out in no positive category
Paul George - 2 10 Win Shares seasons, but, you know, he isn't a terrible candidate otherwise. I am glad I gave him a look at least.
Remaining 62 Guys
1 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3 Ray Allen
4 Charles Barkley
5 Rick Barry
6 Elgin Baylor
7 Larry Bird
8 Kobe Bryant
10 Bob Cousy
12 Billy Cunningham
13 Steph Curry
14 Mel Daniels
15 Anthony Davis
16 Clyde Drexler
18 Kevin Durant
19 Julius Erving
21 Walt Frazier
22 Kevin Garnett
23 George Gervin
24 Artis Gilmore
26 John Havlicek
27 Elvin Hayes
28 Dwight Howard
29 Allen Iverson
30 LeBron James
31 Magic Johnson
32 Neil Johnston
34 Jason Kidd
37 Karl Malone
38 Moses Malone
41 Steve Nash
42 Dirk Nowitzki
43 Hakeem Olajuwon
44 Shaquille O'Neal
46 Chris Paul
48 Bob Pettit
50 Scottie Pippen
51 Willis Reed
52 Oscar Robertson
55 Dolph Schayes
60 Jerry West
61 Russell Westbrook
Wednesday, March 17, 2021
What Am I Saying When I Say Someone is a Top 36 "All-Time Best" Player?
I found it interesting when I saw that one ranking system asked voters to say, "If you had X at his peak, would you rather have him or the other guy?" Well, Wilt averaged 50-27 and was so good they changed the size of the lane to specifically harm his dominance. He then won 3 MVPs AFTER that. So how does that survey of voters not end with Wilt at #1? Also, if you are judging just "Hey, guy is super great for one year" then why isn't Bernard King a top 20 all-time player, because I am telling you, a healthy Bernard King just torched everyone he faced. Derrick Rose should certainly be top 74 there, right?
But I digress. What am I judging? What are my criteria? I set these criteria in 2017, and I think they are fair.
Once you get to Step E in that analysis, there is some wiggle room to prefer the guys you personally like and snub the guys you personally dislike. But it is my hope that there is not much room to wiggle. If one guy is 11X All-NBA and the other guy is 2X, by the time I get to step E, they should be so far apart that I cannot put the 2X guy ahead. I will concede that my rankings do permit some level of personal preference, largely based upon what I have witnessed by viewing 500 NBA games live and watching untold numbers on TV. As I have told people in the past, "If you do not like that, you are free to make your own list."
A note about the ABA - I am an ABA supporter. I am not sure, however, that guys always can get 100% credit for their ABA play. A lot of guys who were great in the ABA did not put up that level of dominant play in the NBA. I think that you need to assess the relative strength of the player in both leagues (where possible) and make a subjective guess as to how his ABA stats would transfer,
Finally - a note about old-timey "black and white footage" players: I am not going to discard these players because they played back in the day. I do not subscribe to the philosophy that a 6 or 8 team league is easier to dominate than a 30 team league. I think that, as a general rule, truly great players could have success at any point in time (Wilt, Kareem, Jordan, LeBron all were Finals MVPs on title teams well more than a decade after joining the league). As a result, my list will credit players more for what they actually accomplished rather than asking how they would do if transported forward 40 years in a time machine. assigned a team, and asked to play that night.
With that understanding and those rules, we now have to get to chopping that group of 77 down to 36. Then we can rank them.
Well, Here We Go - The Top 36 Players of All-Time, April 2021 Edition - Gathering Data -- 77 Candidates
OK, first, these are not the 77 greatest players of all-time.
But I am not going to re-do all of my work from 2018, so we have to start from somewhere closer to the end of my analysis.
I will use my Top 56 guys from 2018 and add some guys ESPN always has on their lists that I never do, then add the top 12 players of the last 6 seasons (that's why KAT gets on) to see if they belong at all.
So, 77 guys to boil down to 36:
1 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3 Ray Allen
4 Charles Barkley
5 Rick Barry
6 Elgin Baylor
7 Larry Bird
8 Kobe Bryant
10 Wilt Chamberlain
11 Bob Cousy
13 Billy Cunningham
14 Steph Curry
15 Mel Daniels
16 Anthony Davis
17 Clyde Drexler
19 Kevin Durant
20 Julius Erving
22 Walt Frazier
23 Kevin Garnett
24 Add Pau Gasol
25 George Gervin
26 Artis Gilmore
28 James Harden
29 John Havlicek
30 Elvin Hayes
31 Dwight Howard
32 Allen Iverson
33 LeBron James
34 Magic Johnson
35 Neil Johnston
37 Michael Jordan
38 Jason Kidd
42 Jerry Lucas
43 Ed Macauley
44 Karl Malone
45 Moses Malone
48 George Mikan
49 Reggie Miller
50 Add Alonzo Mourning
51 Steve Nash
52 Dirk Nowitzki
53 Hakeem Olajuwon
54 Shaquille O'Neal
56 Chris Paul
58 Bob Pettit
60 Scottie Pippen
61 Willis Reed
62 Oscar Robertson
65 Bill Russell
66 Dolph Schayes
72 Dwayne Wade
73 Jerry West
74 Russell Westbrook