I am Not Re-doing all of my work on Kareem and Wilt - 2021 Top 36 -- Wilt #3, Kareem #4

Wilt, in my opinion, was a better player and had a better career than Kareem.  Nothing has changed in 3 years to change my opinion enough to flip flop them.

 See https://hoopramblings.blogspot.com/2018/05/greatest-nba-players-kareem-is-4-wilt.html

As I have said before, the Top 4 players in NBA history are in some order, Wilt, Kareem, Michael Jordan and LeBron James.

So, on April 28, 2021, I have finally reached the point where I have to reconsider LeBron v. Michael for #1 overall.  Here are the rest of your Top 36 for April 2021:

Will Be Watching Their Backs in April 2024:

36. Steve Nash

35. Gary Payton 

34. Patrick Ewing

33. Dwyane Wade 

(Current guys looking to move up - Kawhi, Giannis, Westbrook, Anthony Davis)

Next Group Up - A Little Safer 

32.  Bob Cousy

31.  Scottie Pippen

30.  John Havlicek

29.  Chris Paul 

Looks Good Through April 2030 at Least

28. John Stockton

27. Rick Barry

26. Elgin Baylor

Top 25?  Now You Are Talking!

25. James Harden

24. Stephen Curry

23. Dirk Nowitzki

22. Kevin Garnett 

21. Kevin Durant

Solid Top 20 Guys

20. Charles Barkley

19. Moses Malone

18. Hakeem Olajuwon

17. Julius Erving

16, Bob Pettit

15, David Robinson

14. George Mikan

13, Karl Malone

12. Oscar Robertson

11. Kobe Bryant

Category "He Is the NBA Logo For a Reason"

10. Jerry West

The Elite - The Top 9

9. Larry Bird

8. Shaquille O'Neal

7. Bill Russell

6. Magic Johnson

5. Tim Duncan

4. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

3.  Wilt Chamberlain

Now we have to pick between LeBron and Michael.  At least I have 2 1/3 days to do so.

By Time Period

3 Players primarily from the 1950s - Pettit, Mikan and Cousy

6 Players Primarily From the 1960s - Russell, Wilt, Baylor, Oscar, West, Havlicek,

3 Players Primarily From the 1970s - Kareem, Doc, Barry

3 Players Primarily from the 1980s - Moses, Bird, Magic

9 Players Primarily from the 1990s - Jordan, KMalone, Robinson, Hakeem, Barkley, Stockton, Ewing, Pippen, Payton

7 Players Primarily from 2000-09 --  Duncan, Shaq, Kobe, Dirk, Nash, Wade, Garnett

5 Players Primarily from 2010-Present - James, Curry, Harden, Paul, Durant

Forming 3 teams of 5

PG - Magic, 2nd string Oscar, 3rd string Curry

SG - Jordan, West, Kobe

SF - LeBron, Bird, Doc

PF - Duncan, KMalone, Pettit

C - Wilt, Kareem, Russell

Forming Teams 4-7

PG - Stockton, Paul, Cousy, Payton

SG - Harden, Havlicek, Wade, none

SF - Durant, Baylor, Barry, Pippen

PF -Barkley, Garnett, Dirk, none

C - Shaq, Mikan, Robinson, Hakeem

3 leftovers - Moses, Ewing, Nash 

 

Top 36 (April 2021 Edition) - 5 & 6 - Is It Duncan or Magic?

Timothy Theodore Duncan was born on April 25, 1976, in St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands.

Earvin Johnson Jr. was born on August 14, 1959 in Lansing, Michigan.

Now, one aspect of my 2018 list that caused criticism and consternation was that I had Duncan too high and Earvin too low.  So, I am not afraid to consider this criticism, and I have thought about it for 3 years.  Obviously, not much has changed and we are in the top 6 and both guy are still around (so, I am not dropping Duncan) and there is no way Magic goes up above #5, so we are where we are.

5 titles

3 Finals MVPs

Over .200 WS/48

The cornerstone of a franchise for over a decade.

These are stats/awards/status shared by both Magic and Duncan.

What is the case for Magic?  Magic went to more Finals (9) than Duncan (6).  Magic was a superior offensive player.  Magic, in fact, is arguably the greatest offensive player of all-time.  Of players who played at least 20,000 minutes of their career during 1980-91, Magic absolutely destroys the field in OBPM and ORtg, whipping guys known specifically for their offense (Dantley, Wilkins) and coming out far superior to Bird.  https://stathead.com/tiny/hQBR1

He has one more regular season MVP than Duncan.  He is 5th in MVP Award Shares while Duncan is 9th.

Even more interesting for Magic is the fact that he was showing no noticeable decline in 1991 and may have actually been a BETTER player in some ways than when he was young.  It is possible that Magic puts up another 70 WS and another 50 VORP if able to play 1992-98.  Magic, really, was headed for a career like LeBron's.

He got HIV.  

Whether you "blame" Magic for that or not, the fact is, he had a 15 WS/8 VORP season in 1991 and he was going to be 32 years old.  It is altogether possible that Magic could have been the #1 player of all-time.  But he is not.  He is, as a result of HIV, 14th in VORP and 24th in WS, while he is 3rd in BPM and 9th in WS/48.  OK, so that is Magic.

Duncan?  Well, he is THIRTY TIMES either All-NBA or All-Defense.  30x.  Think about that.  Gary Payton is like 18x.  Duncan - 30x. That is just silly.  He was the anchor for the Spurs on defense from 1998 to 2016.  He is second all-time in Defensive Win Shares behind Bill Russell.  Duncan won titles while competing against the Shaq/Kobe Lakers.  He beat LeBron's team twice in the Finals.  He has one more first-team All-NBA than does Magic.  Magic played with Kareem, who is a top 4 all-time player.  Duncan never played with a top 4 all-time player and still won the same number of titles.

I rank Tim Duncan so high on my list because I see him as sort of our generation's Bill Russell, except he could score.  In 1999 and 2003 and 2005, Duncan carried his team to the title...on both ends.  In 2003, Duncan had 5.9 playoff WS.  That is the most ever registered in any playoff year.  Then he won in 2007 against a terrible Cavs team.  By 2013 and 2014, he had reloaded with new guys and was winning again.

So, how good was Tim Duncan?  Awfully, awfully good.  And if you want to nitpick, he got the most first-place MVP votes twice, as did Magic (Magic's 3rd MVP was the only time the guy getting fewer first-place votes won).

I thought about it, but I am sticking with Duncan.  Duncan is one of the best defensive layers if all-time.  Magic?  0 All-defense awards and absolutely no one ever promoted him for one.  Longevity and defense need to be rewarded somewhere.  I think this is as good of a place as any.

#6 - Magic Johnson

#5 - Tim Duncan

The #7 Player of All-Time (April 2021 Edition) - Bill Russell

 William Felton Russell was born February 12, 1934 in Monroe, Louisiana.  

Bill Russell's Celtics won 11 titles out of his 13 years, losing only to Bob Pettit's 1958 Hawks and Wilt's 1967 Sixers.  During his 13 years in the league, Russell won 5 MVPs and had the following MVP Placements:

7-1-2-2-1-1-1-3-1-4-3-4

Russell has 133 Defensive Win Shares.  In the history of the NBA and ABA, Wilt has 2 10DWS seasons and Russell has 6.  That is it.  That is the end of the list.  Russell has a SIXTEEN DWS season!  Russell was not only clearly the greatest defensive player of all-time, he is MILES ahead of second place, and he was probably 25 years ahead of anyone as far as roaming around and blocking shots.  Literally. Watch some old Russell footage, you will feel like you are watching a player from 1990 roaming around and playing help defense while the remainder of the guys on the film are just standing around next to their men.  It was not until the late 80s and early 90s that guys realized that this was probably a great strategy defensively and they ought to start doing it.  So Russell was playing a style in the Kennedy Administration that no one really picked up on until the first Bush Administration.  That is simply mind boggling.  Compare that to Golden State learning in 2015 that barrages of 3s will kill an opponent and every team in the league picking that up about 2 years later.

So, in light of all of his titles and the fact that he probably also would have won 8+ Finals MVPs, why isn't Bill Russell #1?  Well, the offensive numbers are just SO bad.  Early in his career, Russell was a slightly above league average shooter in a league where shooting was pretty poor.  Thereafter, below league average.  PER - bad; OWS - under 30 for his career; he NEVER averaged 19 PPG despite playing nearly the entire game.  He was an above-average assist guy for a big man, but he played on teams full of Hall of Famers and almost never scored, so you'd hope he could register some assists by throwing the ball to Sharman, Cousy, Havlicek, Heinsohn, Jones, etc.

He and Wilt played in the league 10 years together.  First-team All-NBAs?  Wilt 7, Russell 2, Unseld 1.  I think the general belief of the players at the time was that he was the most important player in the league, but not necessarily the best.  

I concede that Russell is extremely difficult to rank.  If all you care about is titles, he is obviously #1.  He led his team to 11 titles.  (He had a lot of help, but he was the key guy).  If you want a guy who shines on both ends of the floor, he isn't it.  If you want a guy with overall advanced stats, he certainly isn't it (20th in WS, 28th in WS/48, not Top 100 in PER).  If you judge him based upon his advanced stats, he is just a Top 20 player (Moses, Hakeem, David area - Bob Pettit, for example, is 7th in PER and 16th in WS/48).  

I am going to say #7 - that seems like a sane ranking (ESPN has him at #4).  I won't dwell on it - it is now April 28 and I have promises to keep, and miles to go before I sleep.

The #8 Player of All-Time (2021 Edition) - Shaquille O'Neal

Shaquille Rashaun O'Neal was born on March 6, 1972 in Newark, New Jersey.  

Now, imagine, if you will, that your reputation was that you dogged it in the regular season, were routinely out of shape, and just turned it on for the playoffs at the last second.  Now imagine that your regular season awards included an MVP, 8x First Team All-NBAs, 2 2nds and 4 3rds.  And imagine that your stats included this run:

23-14 & 3.5 blocks

29-13-2.9

29-11-2.4

26-11-2.1

26-12-2.9

28-11-2.9

26-11-2.5

29.7-13.6-3.0

29-13-2.8

27-11-2

27-11-2.4

22-11-2.5

23-10-2.3

Most 21-10-2 seasons?  Shaq.

1	Shaquille O'Neal	1993	2005	TOT	NBA	12
2	Hakeem Olajuwon	1986	1996	HOU	NBA	11
3	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	1974	1981	TOT	NBA	8
4	David Robinson	1990	1998	SAS	NBA	8
5	Tim Duncan	1998	2004	SAS	NBA

Shaq still finished Top 5 in MVP balloting 8x.  Shaq is still 7th all-time in regular season MVP Award Shares, despite his reputation.  

That is the amazing thing about Shaq (4 titles, 3 FMVPs, reached 6 Finals with 3 teams), there is no doubt he could have been WAAAAAAAY better in the regular season,  Yet he's 15th in rebounds, 9th in blocks, 10th in points, 13th in WS, 4th in PER.  

Then in the playoffs?  My lord, look at all of the black ink.  At some point in time, he led the playoffs in scoring, rebounding, blocks, WS, WS/48, VORP.

His 1999-2000 season and playoffs is a Top 10 season of all-time.  How is your favorite guy's peak?  Well, if it is 1999-2000 Shaq, that is quite a peak.

Adjusted shooting for his career?  3,800 without free throws, 2,800 with free throws.  Effective FG% Plus for his career?  120 (120% of league average).  My lord.  

So if I love Shaq so much, (1) why don't I marry him, and (2) why #8?  Well, you just have to deduct some points for his 1 MVP and his constant missing of games in his prime.  That hurts your team.  He won his conference titles with Penny and Kobe and Wade, and he got a LOT out of those guys in the deep playoff runs.  They made his life a little easier.  

What you see with Shaq is he is a Top 5 all-time playoff performer and probably a top 10 regular season player.  That doesn't get you a top 5 rating.  I'm gonna give him #8.  Has an argument for a couple higher; has an argument for a couple lower.

The #9 Player of All-Time - Larry Bird

 Larry Joe Bird was born on December 7, 1956 in West Baden Springs, Indiana.

Bird would not reach the NBA until just before his 23 birthday, and his heel and then his back went on him by age 31, ending his time as an all-time great player.  Bird, therefore, really only had 9 great seasons.  But boy were they great.

Bird won 3 MVPs and his MVP placements in those 9 years are scary good:

4-2-2-2-1-1-1-3-2

Of the Top 9 players on my list, Bird falls only below LeBron and Jordan and Kareem for career MVP Award Shares (see chart at bottom).  Therefore, in his 9 great years, he put up some hellacious numbers.  For example, he is the only player to ever go 24-10-6 for a career.  From 1984 to 1987, Bird was at his peak and was a great peak performer.  

24-10-6.5

29-10-6.5

26-10-6.8

28-9-7.6. 

Those are just crazy numbers for a 4 year stretch.  

So, why not higher?  Longevity isn't great (compare Kareem, Duncan, LeBron, Russell, Wilt, even Shaq), his playoff advanced stats are not the great (he is top 5 in no playoff advanced stat - WS 12th, WS/48 27th, BPM 11th, VORP 6th).  And he only has 2 Finals MVPs (MJ 6, LeBron 4, Kareem, Magic, Shaq, Duncan 3 each).

For a guy with a 9-year crest/peak, you'd think he'd be higher in the per minute regular season stats of WS/48 (23rd) and BPM (7th).  To gain extra points for greatness over a shorter period of time, you'd like to see 5 MVPs and 5 FMVP and top 3 in WS/48 or BPM.  You aren't seeing that.  You'd like to see, for example, that he has a far higher playoff BPM and WS/48 and Net Rating than Kawhi Leonard.  You aren't seeing that -- https://stathead.com/tiny/yCdGe

So, truly a great player, but he just has too much against him to get above #9.

1.	LeBron James	8.813
2.	Michael Jordan*	8.115
3.	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*	6.105
4.	Larry Bird*	5.612
5.	Magic Johnson*	5.104
6.	Bill Russell*	4.748
7.	Shaquille O'Neal*	4.380
8.		4.296
9.	Tim Duncan*	4.278
10.		4.202
11.	Wilt Chamberlain*	4.152

Who Remains - The Top 9 of All-Time (April 2021 Edition)

9 players are left to rank in the next 4 days.  They are, in alphabetical order:

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 6 MVPs, 6 titles, 3 FMVPs, all-time leading scorer, 15x some sort of all-NBA

Larry Bird - 3x MVP, 3 titles, 2 FMVPs, 4th in career MVP Award Shares.  146 WS.

Wilt Chamberlain - 4 MVPs, 2 titles, 1 FMVP, all-time leading rebounder, 2nd in PPG, 1st in RPG, 247 WS

Tim Duncan - 2 MVPs, 5 titles, 3x FMVP, 30x All-NBA or All-Defense, 10x first-team All-NBA, #3 in Drtg and #2 in DWS.  206 WS

LeBron James - 4 MVPs, 4 titles, 4 FMVPs, 16x some sort of All-NBA, 241 WS

Magic Johnson - 3 MVPs, 5 titles, 3 FMVPs, #1 APG, #3 BPM, #6 ORtg. 156 WS

Michael Jordan - 5 MVPs, 6 titles, 6 FMVPs, 10x first-team All-NBA, #1 PPG, #1 WS/48, 214 WS

Bill Russell - 5x MVPs, 11 titles in 13 years, #1 DWS, 11x All-NBA of some sort, #2 in TRB and RPG, 163.5 WS (133 of them defensive).

Numbers 12 to 10 -- Ranking the Top 36

 12.  Oscar Robertson -- It really pains me to not have Oscar in the Top 10, largely because virtually every single guy aged 65 to 85 I have ever spoken with has told me that Oscar was the best player, period.  Here is the thing - he was clearly an outstanding player, and he has some amazing positives.  Only player in the Top 10 in APG and PPG; 9x first-team All-NBA; MVP placements over an 8 year stretch of 5-3-3-1-2-3-4-5.   Was 5th in MVP balloting playing WITH Kareem on a title team.  189 WS, 11th most all-time, and he rolled them up every single year.  (4-3-2-2-1-3-2-2-3-5-6).

But Oscar got 0 titles on his own, and his teams were not exactly knocking on the door.  Bob Cousy actually said that he felt Oscar didn't play enough to win.  Whether that is true or not, he didn't win without Kareem.  And his PER and WS/48 don't show him as a top 10 player.  That said, his regular season stats are superior to Jerry West's, and he has an MVP and a title.  I think Oscar may be a little diminished in my eyes because I did not see the great Oscar play.  I saw the Milwaukee Oscar play.  While I was always impressed with West and Wilt and Kareem, the Oscar I saw backed the ball up the floor and fed it to Kareem in the post.  I mean, that is 100% the right thing to do, but I really cannot bump him up any spots by saying, "Well, you guys don't know.  You didn't watch him play!"

I am going to put him here and hope that guys born between 1936 and 1956 don't all show up at my house looking to kick my ass.

11.  Kobe Bryant - I will move him ahead of Oscar.  5x champion, 1x MVP, 11x first-team All-NBA, 2x Finals MVP.  When you the top 20 of this list, you are playing in some really rarified air.  I mean, I saw Barkley play a LOT and know how good he was.  He was 20th.  Doc (4x MVP) is 17th.  Now you are fighting for spots in the Top 10.  Virtually everything you have done in your career will be analyzed.  Look at Kobe's advanced stats:

Win Shares - 19th

WS/48 - 62nd (!!) 

PER - 27th

BPM - 30th

VORP - 12th

In these categories, Kobe NEVER led the league for a year.  NEVER.

There are a number of players who are high-volume, low-efficiency players (Isiah, Iverson, Westbrook).    Kobe is basically their king.  He did the high-volume, low-efficiency schtick better than everyone else.  His adjusted shooting is about +1,100.  That is good, not top 10 good.  100% of Kobe's adjusted shooting + is......free throws.  

But anyway, Kobe had a great career.  Could it be argued that he maybe ought to be Top 9?  Yeah.  Could it be argued that he could be dropped several spots?  Yep.  I think 11 is fair.

#RIP.

10.  Jerry West -- we have just gone through a list of great players, many of whom were hurt by their post-season play.  Jerry West may have never won a regular season MVP (10x First-Team All-NBA, MVP placements of 2-2-2-2-3-5-5-5, adjusted shooting plus 2700) but his playoff stats are crazy.  There are 4 players in the history of the NBA with 20+ playoff Win Shares playing at a .200+ rate.  Jordan, James, Johnson, West.  That is it.  

https://stathead.com/tiny/3wMcZ

He is 3rd in playoff PPG.  He leads the Finals in total points and is 3rd in Finals PPG.  Jerry West has 1,679 Finals points.  Steph Curry has 741.  IF we are going to give Kawhi Leonard Top 36 consideration (which I did) based upon his great playoff stats, we should recognize that Kawhi Leonard has 362 Finals points.  If he quadruples his 362, he'd have 1,448.  Do you think we wouldn't be talking "Kawhi Leonard top 10" if he did that?  

I realize that Jerry West went 1-8 in NBA Finals.  He was Finals MVP one of those loss years.  In 1962, Frank Selvy had a wide open jumper to win Game 7 and beat Russell - miss.  

In any event, Jerry West is a top 10 player.  I tell you what - the next guy to get 1,500 Finals points and average 30 PPG, I will put him in my Top 10 also.  So if Steph Curry more than doubles his production while pushing his Finals average up 4 1/2 points per game, he is in.  I think LeBron would need to average 35 PPG for his next 20 games to push his Finals average up to 30PPG.  Kevin Durant?  He has the average, he just needs...........1045 more Finals points.

Top 36 ranked in 2021 - ##16-13

 Since we are more than halfway through the month, I better get things cranking up.

It is interesting that players ##16-13 on my 2021 list are all going to be guys who will draw some criticism for how high I have them.  You know what?  If your list of all-time greats simply copies everyone else's list, your value to this exercise is 0.  While that fact doesn't justify putting, say, Marcus Banks or Marcus Liberty as a top 40 player, I am more than comfortable with this grouping of 4.

16.  Bob Pettit - I honestly cannot understand why lists have Pettit down in the 30s.  It baffles me.  Pettit played 11 years, won a title, won two MVPs, is one of two guys to lead his team over Russell's (Wilt is the other), probably should have received Cousy's MVP, so he should have three.  Yet he is ranked down in the 30s with guys with no MVPs, no titles, and like 3 first-team All-NBAs.  It is baffling.  Anyway - Pettit was 10X 1st team All-NBA.  His MVP placements are 1-1-2-2-3-4-4-4-6, meaning that in his 11 seasons he was regarded as a top 4 player 8 times and a top 6 player 9 times.  His MVP placements are better than his contemporary Elgin Baylor.  During his playing days, it was probably Russell/Wilt/Pettit.

Only 6 guys have ever been the all-time leader in career points scored.  Pettit is 1. He retired at #1 in points and #2 in rebounds.  Today, 55 years after he stopped playing, he is 14th all-time in WS/48 and 7th in PER.

Player Efficiency Rating

1954-55 NBA 24.4 (2nd)

1955-56 NBA 27.3 (1st)

1956-57 NBA 28.0 (1st)

1957-58 NBA 26.3 (1st)

1958-59 NBA 28.2 (1st)

1959-60 NBA 23.7 (3rd)

1960-61 NBA 25.2 (4th)

1961-62 NBA 24.2 (5th)

1962-63 NBA 25.0 (3rd)

1963-64 NBA 23.6 (4th)

1964-65 NBA 22.6 (4th)

Career NBA 25.3 (7th)

Career 25.3 (7th)

Enough said.  I will fight this Pettit battle until the day I die.

15.  David Robinson 

Here are some of David Robinson's key statistical placements:

Win Shares Per 48 - 5-2-2-6-1-1-2-1-1-3-1-5 (#2 all-time)

PER - 5-3-2-6-1-1-1-3-3-5 (3rd all time)

Win Shares 16th all-time

BPM - 6-4-2-6-1-1-2-1-4-6 (4th all-time)

VORP - 5-2-3-5-1-1-2-3-7 (10th all-time)

Defensive Rating - 2-2-1-6-8-3-1-1-1-1-2-2-3-4 (4th all-time)

He has two titles, an MVP, 4x All-NBA first-team, 1-2-2-3-3-6-6-7 MVP placements.  He had a 20 WS season.  20.  He won a scoring title.  He scored 71 in a game.

Again, I will go to my grave defending the greatness of David Robinson.

14.  George Mikan - George Mikan stopped playing in 1956.  24 years later, he was determined by people who were alive to see him play to still have been a Top 11 player in the history of the game.  He won 5 titles, 3x had 20+ WS.  Retired as the all-time leading scorer in league history.  If they had the awards when he played, he probably has around 4 MVPs and 4 FMVPs which would mean it would be him and Jordan and LeBron and probably Bill Russell.  And he'd have 5 titles, which LeBron does not have.  So there is an argument that he is a top 3 player.  So how much do you reduce for the lack of longevity?  I mean, I have seen lists with Bill Walton claimed to be a Top 40 player.  Walton played 1 1/2 great starter years and 1 great bench year.  2 titles.  So, you do have to drop Mikan some (otherwise, why isn't Giannis on my list?) but I think 14 is a fair landing spot.

13.  Karl Malone - I have said it before and I will say it again, if Karl Malone's regular season career is all you consider, he is a top 5 all-time player.  Top 5.  It is my top 4 guys and Karl.  

WS - 4th

VORP - 4th

Points - 2nd

Rebounds - 8th

2 MVPs, 3 WC titles

MVP Placements - 1-1-2-3-4-4-4-5-7-7-7

11x first-team All-NBA (tied for 2nd all-time)

While I cannot seriously endorse it, it bears noting that he was even 3x 1st team all-Defense!!  Bird and Magic combined?  Zero.

So, those playoff failures?  What do you do?  I think you need to say that players with this level of regular season success and 3 conference titles deserve to still be ranked high.  His longevity is insane and yet his per minute stats still hold up.  But there are ZERO players in my remaining 12 who have no titles.  The group of 12 guys has 53 titles.  AND I can honestly say that I have heard at least someone say that they consider each of the Final 12 players to be the greatest player of all-time.  I have never heard anyone say that they consider Karl Malone to be the greatest player of all-time.  So, while you could make an argument for Karl all of the way up to #9, I will stop him at #13.

Side Story From 1983 - Just Reminded of today

 We take a break from the 2021 Top 36 for this story.  I was criticized today for putting Splenda in my coffee, and I remembered this story, taking me down a rabbit hole from 38 years ago.

The year was 1983.  I was a 2nd year Honors Scholar at my college.  The new class (20) of Honors Scholars had arrived at the school and we were supposed to be nice to them and tell them our experiences, etc.  This, of course, caused me to try to find a good looking female to hit on and potentially date.  There were two primary targets, one we will call Dani, though I am unsure what her actual name was - I think it was a unisex name.  She was short and dark-haired and had some passing interest in talking to me.  The other we will call Angry because she appeared angered by anything I said to her or the fact that I would give her any attention.  

Dani asked me to review some poli sci classroom issues, and she even had breakfast with me to discuss them.  It certainly didn't have the makings of a torrid love affair, but she smiled when we passed in the halls and she was pleasant.  Angry - not so much.  I tried to avoid her all I could.  

We went to a reception one night at a professor's house.  I hung with my sophomore friends.  About 45 minutes from the end of the night, they served us coffee.  Angry walked over to me and said, "What do you have there?"  Coffee.  "Can I have a sip?"  Sure.  "This is like CANDY!  You drink CANDY COFFEE!?! I at least thought you'd be kind of manly.  Geez.  I didn't think I could think LESS of you, but I do."  Um, OK.  She walks away in disgust.

Now, we get about 1 month into the semester and I have almost achieved the courage to ask out Dani.  I mean, why not try?  I come home one day and the guy across the hall (Dave) is pouring bleach all over our shower stall.  He is in this disgusting shower stall just scrubbing away.  Me, "?"  Dave, "I have a date with this girl tonight and she said she'd really like to take a shower with me."  OK.  "She is really excited."  Now, Dave was a pretty terrible guy, basically imagine the stereotype of every bad movie's "college tool" guy.  Me, "Well, good for you Dave,  Good luck,"  Dave, "Her name is Dani.  Complete freak."

Well, yeah... that was the end of that.

Anyway, I also remember about 2 months later that Angry one night at a party came up to me as I was sitting on a couch and said something to the effect of, "Hey, I hear you like me."  Me, "What?"  Her, "Look, it seems like you like me.  Don't.  I have a boyfriend."  Me, "OK."  Suffice to say, I did not hang out with that class thereafter if I could help it.  The girl I had my eye on enjoyed wild shower sex with the biggest tool I knew, and the girl I had managed to avoid due to her anger issues had the belief that I secretly pined for her.  

Anyway - all this comes back from just a similar coffee comment made 38 years later. 

Players 17 to 22, April 2021 Edition

 22) Kevin Garnett - 4x first-team All-NBA, MVP placements of 1-2-2-3-5.  Numerous All-Defense years, DPOY.  Overall, Garnett's career in the NBA is defined by two sets of evaluations - 1) in his Minnesota years, he was wildly underrated as a player (example, 2004 he should have easily been unanimous MVP, another example, in 2005 he led the league in rebounding, Win Shares, VORP, BPM and he was DROPPED to 11th in MVP and 2nd team All-NBA), 2) in his Boston years he was wildly overrated, but he played with better players and won a title where Paul Pierce was FMVP.  So, I guess it all balances out.

Garnett is the best "out on the floor" defender I have ever seen.  He also was a guy (similar to David Robinson) where you could put him on any crappy team and he'd elevate the team by a LOT of wins in a short period of time.  Not a great offensive player, but made himself above average.  Run the Timberwolves' lifetime record with and without him and see how that makes you feel.

21) Kevin Durant - look, the guy has a couple titles and a couple Finals MVPs and is 6x All-NBA, and has MVP placements of 1-2-2-5-5, but what I really focus on are those 2013 and 2014 MVP battles with LeBron.  I mean, my goodness.  Durant is playing 3,100 minutes and putting up historically great statistics.  He beats LeBron in 2014 and loses to him in 2013, but my goodness are those two great years.  How great?

https://stathead.com/tiny/n4wX9

I think that Kevin Durant feels a lot of pain from not being seen as the player that LeBron is.  I think it REALLY bothers him, and I think it is the reason he went to Golden State and the reason he left Golden State.  He REALLY wanted some titles for his legacy, and then when people said, "Great, Harrison Barnes has a title too" he had to go to Brooklyn to try to win his own title (which it appears he realized wasn't going to happen, since they went out and got Harden).

His regular season advanced numbers and honors are roughly the same as Harden's, and he has better regular season numbers and awards than Curry.  So, they are at ##25 and 24, I will leave him up here at #21, but he still doesn't crack the top 20.  He probably has an argument for 20.  He also can reapply in 2024.  If he has a couple Nets titles by then, he will move up significantly.

20) Charles Barkley - in 1993, Charles Barkley played as well as Michael Jordan.  He was MVP, led the Suns to the Finals and they lost in 6 games despite games where Chuck had like 44-24-5 on 65% shooting.  That pretty much sums up the career of Charles Barkley. He is great, often historically great, yet he could never quite win it all.  Barkley was 5x first-team All-NBA and had MVP placements of 1-2-4-4-6-6-6-6, meaning he was recognized as a top 6 player 8 times but was only 5x first-team.  Bad luck. Barkley is the only player in the history of the NBA who ever won the most MVP first-place votes and yet was not MVP (1990, Jordan and Magic split the vote and Magic won).  More bad luck.

Most "Game Scores" of over 30 (a star level game) -- 1) Jordan, 2) LeBron, and then.........3) Charles Barkley.  Run any advanced stat or Game Score stat and/or adjusted shooting stat - Barkley is WAY up there at the very top.  Almost +3,000 adjusted shooting!  TS% 12th, PER 12th, Win Shares 17th, BPM 14th, VORP 11th, ORtg 12th, WS/48 14th.

Barkley was insanely good.  Kevin Durant will need to wait until 2024 to pass him.

19) Moses Malone - there is a defect in The Matrix, because I am changing his spot.  Sorry, Moses.  Upon years of reflection, I have to move him down to 19.  Look, Moses was a great players and SUPER dominant (3x MVP, FMVP, MVP placements of 1-1-1-3-4-6, 5x first-team All-NBA).  His 1983 season he was so dominant that he declared before the playoffs "fo, fo, fo" and actually ripped through 4-5-4 due Moncrief spoiling things.  But he SWEPT the Magic/Kareem Lakers in 1983.  Swept them.  Kicked Kareem's ass so badly that he got his regularly scheduled Moses Malone Migraine.  His offensive rebounding totals are insane, as if he was actually playing a different game than every other player who played basketball after 1974.  Most career Offensive Rebounds:

1.	Moses Malone*	7382
2.	Artis Gilmore*	4816
3.	Robert Parish*	4598
4.	Buck Williams	4526
5.	Dennis Rodman*	4329
6.	Charles Barkley*	4260
7.	Shaquille O'Neal*	4209

But Moses drops a spot anyway because I am going to elevate an existing player on my 2018 list a couple spots.  I will blame this on Moses's rather pedestrian advanced stats (he is something like 40th in VORP), but it is really a decision to give a different player more credit.

18) Hakeem Olajuwon - also a victim of re-ranking.  A truly great player (MVP, 2X Finals MVP, 6x first team All-NBA).  His MVP placements aren't super great (1-2-4-4-5-5-7) and his playoff record is pretty poor other than the two title years.     He tends to be a little overrated on most boards.  If you go through his WS/WS/48, BPM, VORP, Adjusted shooting, etc. you aren't seeing a top 10 or top 12 all-time player.  

17) Julius Erving - As always with Doc, it depends upon how you evaluate those ABA years.  But having had three years to think about it, I am moving him up.

If you give full credit, he has 4 MVPs and 9x All-League, so imagine Rick Barry with 4 MVPs.  His MVP placements are 1-1-1-1-2-2-3-5-5-6.  TEN times in the top 6 and nine times in the top 5.  And then you ask what people at the time felt.  Well, Kareem and he made the 35th Anniversary team in 1980.  So, as of 1980, he was regarded as one of the 11 best players of all-time.  This ranking came from people who had actually seen him play.  From 1974 to 1986, Julius Erving won more professional basketball games than any other player and played in the Finals 6 times, winning three titles.  Look, I am just going to move him up.  You can say I am giving him 50% credit for the ABA or 40% or 67%.  Who cares?  He is 17th.

April 2021 - Players 25 to 23

 25.  James Harden - an 11 spot move up in 3 years for the bulky and bearded one.  Harden, based solely upon regular season performance, is a top 20 player.  Has an MVP, He is 6x First team All-NBA and is shooting for 7.  He has finished in the Top 3 of MVP balloting 5 times (1-2-2-2-3 plus he has a 5th).  He has led the league in scoring.  He has led the league in assists.  He has a +11 net rating.  He has an adjusted shooting of over +2,200.  He has 142 WS playing at a .226 rate.  He has a 68 VORP, playing at a 6.9 BPM.  Players who have done that through their first 13 years? Kareem, Michael, LeBron, David Robinson, Chris Paul, Magic Johnson.  

Now, Harden has reached one Finals and crapped the bed there as a young player, and his playoff stats are nowhere near as good as his regular season stats.  His style of play is virtually unwatchable (of his plus 2,200 adjusted shooting, 80% of it is due to free throws).   When you reach this point, you are competing against a ton of guys with multiple MVP and multiple Finals MVPs and multiple titles.  And you are also competing against guys who have 170-200 Win Shares.  But much as I despise him, I will move Harden all of the way up here.

24.  Steph Curry - an 11 spot move up in 3 years for Curry.  He now has 109 Win Shares and has added a 3rd first-team All-NBA.  He has MVP placements of 1-1-5-6-6.  His adjusted shooting is 2,230 (he is the flip of Harden - 80% of Steph's plus is NOT free throws).  He was unanimous MVP, the key player on three Finals teams and winner of one of those.  He was the second banana to Durant on two more title teams.  So, he has 5 Finals and has won 3.  Most players never reach 5 Finals.  His lack of a Finals MVP and his humiliating loss to Kyrie Irving are pretty bad demerits.  He is 63rd in WS and 30th in VORP. His longevity marks are not great.  Now, by 2024 will he put up 40 more Win Shares and 15 more VORP and deserve to be considered a Top 15 player?  Maybe, but that is not the way I would bet.  Again, let's step back from "the Warriors are a dynasty" talk and consider his stats versus Cousy and Nash.  Nash has 2 MVPs and a 2nd, I have him at 36.  Cousy has 6 titles, an MVP and 10 first team all-NBAs.  I have him 32.  I think, if anything, I am giving Curry a bit too much credit up here at 24.  But I will stick with 24 for now.  He can reapply in 3 years.

23.  Dirk Nowitzki - now, Dirk was only 4x first-team All-NBA, but his MVP placements are 1-3-3-6-7.  Here are his Win Share placements for a 10 year stretch.

2000-01 NBA 14.6 (2nd)

2001-02 NBA 13.4 (3rd)

2002-03 NBA 16.1 (2nd)

2003-04 NBA 11.5 (6th)

2004-05 NBA 15.6 (2nd)

2005-06 NBA 17.7 (1st)

2006-07 NBA 16.3 (1st)

2007-08 NBA 12.9 (7th)

2008-09 NBA 10.9 (9th)

2009-10 NBA 12.3 (5th)

His longevity is astounding - 8th in Win Shares, 9th in VORP, 6th in points, 27th in rebounds.  4th in games played.  He has a regular MVP, a Finals MVP and but for a fouling festival against DWade would have had 2 titles and 2 FMVPs.  One of only 3 players to put up 5 playoff WS in a season (2006).  Plus 2,300 adjusted shooting.  On a per-minute basis, Harden and Curry have had better career numbers, but Dirk has almost double Curry's WS and about 70 more WS than Harden.  12 players have 23 WS and 11 VORP in the playoffs.  Dirk is one (Curry and Harden are not).  

April 2021 - Players 29 to 26

 29.  Chris Paul - Chris Paul's Advanced Stat numbers are simply silly.  Ridiculous.  Whatever term you want to use and say, "I cannot believe how good they are."  Net Rating - plus 17 (122/105).  PER - 25.  Win Shares - 187 and counting.  WS/48 - .241.  BPM - 7.4.  VORP - 88.4.  I mean, the WORST placement he has in these stats is 11th (Win Shares) all of the way up to 4th (WS/48).

He is the Karl Malone of guards in that his advanced stats in the regular season place him in a strata of players that rank WAY higher on the list (Jerry West, Magic, Kobe, Oscar).

But ooooh, that playoff resume is pretty bad.  AND his All-NBA and MVP placements are not what you think they would be.  (4x First Team, 2-3-4-5-6-6-7-7).  Probably should have been 2008 MVP, and his 2009 numbers were second only to one of LeBron's best seasons.

28.  John Stockton - There may come a time when I move CP3 above him.  That time will have to be 2024, because it isn't today.  Stockton is a wildly underappreciated player, as is evidenced by his 2x first-team All-NBA and his MVP placements of 7-8-9-10-11-12.  I mean, come on. His team won 55 games a year and made the NBA Finals twice.  It was him and Malone, and he certainly has a lot better argument to be Malone's equal than Pippen had to be Jordan's.  All-time steals and assists leader and it isn't close.  Excellent defender. 208 Win Shares.  Top 10 in BPM, VORP, top 20 in WS/48.

Net Rating plus 17, adjusted shooting +2,500,   13 seasons with 10+ Win Shares (only Karl, LeBron and Kareem have more such seasons).  If there is a tiebreaker - I kind of like John Stockton, and I really despise Chris Paul.

27.  Rick Barry -- I will concede that Barry is a personal favorite.  9x All-NBA or All-ABA.  He lost a season and a half due to fighting antitrust rules.  MVP placements - 2-4-4--5-5-5.  He was almost always regarded as a top 5 players AND PEOPLE DESPISED HIM.  I mean, think James Harden level of annoyance plus even more of an asshole.  The all-time leader in Finals PPG.  His 1974-75 season where he led his team to a sweep of the heavily favored Bullets in the Finals is just a slight level below the top 10 overall seasons of all-time (3rd in WS and BPM, won Finals MVP).  His advanced numbers are not great, more befitting someone in the 30-50 range of players.  But Rick Barry was insanely good.  Everyone knew it.  He was always all-league (9x) and regularly top 5 MVP.  You could argue for lower, so go ahead and make your own list.

26.  Elgin Baylor -- if you look really hard at Elgin Baylor's career, there are two time periods - the first 5 years where he just was insanely good (3-5-3-4-2 in MVP placement) and then the rest where he was still 1st team All-NBA 5 more times.  His Advanced Stats are about like guys who I considered and rejected back in the 50-60 range.  From 1960 to 1963 he led the playoffs in scoring every year and averaged around 35-15-4 in the playoffs.  He lost games due to military service, and he had substantial injuries.  But he was 10X All-NBA and the next guy you will see on the list at 10X is MUCH higher than Elgin.  Only Cousy and Barry behind him are comparable.  

So, we see that we have reached the Top 25 and we do not yet have Harden or Curry.  Will they be ##1 and 2 overall?  Is it over for Jordan at the top?  

We shall see.  There is a long time left in April.

Hoops Maven 

My April 2021 Top 36 Professional Basketball Players of All-Time. Numbers 36 to 30

 36.  Steve Nash -- Nash edges out all of the great players I have identified in my run-up to the Top 36 primarily because he won 2 MVPs and then finished 2nd (in a year he arguably was better than his MVP years).  Nash was a remarkable offensive player - top 20 all-time in Offensive Win Shares, Offensive Rating, Offensive Box Plus-Minus.  36th in VORP, 41st in Win Shares.  So he has a ridiculously high peak and excellent longevity.  His adjusted shooting was over 2,000, meaning as a shooter (ignoring his assists) he was far more accurate and impactful than league average.

Plus he always wins all Twitter polls I ever post, so people perceive him as a great player.  Not that this is worth much, but when you are fighting for that last spot....

Why not higher?  Only 3x All-NBA and one of the absolutely worst defenders of all-time.

35.  Gary Payton - I am sorry, NBA Champion Gary Payton (2006 Miami).  He also has 2x Western Conference titles.  Payton is 28th all-time in Win Shares and 26th all-time in VORP.  He has EIGHTEEN All-NBA designations (9x 1st team all-defense and 9x All-NBA (2-5-2).  One of the greatest defenders of all-time.  The Glove.  While never top 2 in MVP (3-6-6-6-6-6) he was 6 times deemed a top 6 player by MVP voters (more than Wade, more than Pippen, more than Havlicek).

34.  Patrick Ewing - Patrick Ewing was only 1x First-Team All-NBA, and his best MVP placements are 4-4-4-5-5-5.  But his FIVE second-team All-NBAs were to Hakeem (3x) and David Robinson (2x) who, spoiler alert, are in my Top 20 players.  So if the league had two centers like it had two guard and two forwards on All-NBA, Ewing would be 6x 1st team.  His Knicks blew before he got there and he led them into a consistent power.  If John Starks doesn't completely crap the bed in Game 7 1994, Ewing has a title and ESPN does a special on his Knicks instead of Hakeem's Rockets.

33. Dwyane Wade - Wade is, perhaps, a cautionary tale of rating guys too high assuming that they will have a reasonable run-out to their careers.  I had him higher in 2015, and he is sinking, and by 2024 he may be the last one thrown overboard as the young guys enter the list.  Wade was only 2x 1st team All-NBA.  His best MVP placements are 3-5-6-7-8, which is remarkable because, if anything, I have always found that people tend to overrate Wade as a player (so you'd expect his awards to be higher).  That said, he is a 3x champions and is top 25 in the stats that reward high usage players (PER, OBPM, VORP).  He was an excellent defender when healthy.  22 Playoff Win Shares and 12 Playoff VORP.

32.  Bob Cousy - Now, as the years have gone by, people have run down Bob Cousy due to his poor Advanced Stats and his low shooting percentages.  His Adjusted Shooting (shooting versus league average) is better than either Isiah Thomas's or Jason Kidd's.  He won 6 titles.  We was 10x first-team All-NBA.  His MVP placements are 1-3-4-4-6-6 which is remarkable for a point guard.  He led the regular season in assists 8x, the playoffs 8x.  He led the playoffs in points per game 3 times and once scored 50 points in a playoff game.  He would have led the playoffs in PPG five times, but twice his team did not play enough games for him to qualify.  Imagine 50 years from now if Steph Curry is considered and people say, "Well, gee, who did he play against?"  Cousy v. Curry - 6 titles to 3; 10 All-NBAs to 3, led playoffs in scoring and assists more often.  I mean, he probably has an argument for higher than Top 32.  But I will concede that his advanced and shooting numbers are not the greatest and I will drop him off here.

31.  Scottie Pippen -- 3x First team All-NBA, 6 titles, 8x 1st team All-Defense.  Despite playing much of his career with Jordan, finished 3-5-7-9 in MVP.  Basically Gary Payton with 6 titles.  I never liked the guy, and I really still don't.  But as Charlie Daniels Band used to say, "You play pretty good fiddle, boy, but give the Devil his due...."

30.  John Havlicek - It would be his 81st birthday today.  Hondo, like Cousy, really doesn't have the advanced stats or shooting stats to justify this high of a placement.  Like Pippen, however, he has titles - 8 in his case.  From 1969 to 1974, Havlicek was probably the second best non-center in the NBA (Jerry West - spoiler alert, West much higher up the list).  He was 11x All-NBA (4x first, 7x second).  Counting 1st and 2nd teams, Hondo is 19x some sort of All-NBA (11X All-League, 8x All-Defense).

UPDATE NOTE - 

As you can see from comparing the old and new listings, Harden and Curry have moved ahead of these 7 guys.  How far can they rise?  Stay tuned.

Hoops Maven