Larry Bird Is Overrated as a Playoff Performer.

Look, first of all, I want to state what no one on Twitter seems to understand - saying someone is "overrated" is not the same as saying someone "sucks."  It is also not the same as saying (for an active player) any of the following:  "I'd cut him" "I am giving up on him" "Trade him for nothing."


"Overrated" means exactly what the word says - people "rate" (value) this person "over" what his actual value is in some category.


With Larry Bird, the overrating comes in the fact that he is evaluated as an all-time great clutch player in the playoffs when, in fact, the players he is believed to be the equal of (Jordan, LeBron, Magic, Kareem, Shaq) were far superior to Bird as playoff performers.


Larry Bird's career WS/48 in the regular season is .203.  This is excellent, top 20 all-time. 


His regular season VORP is 10th best all-time (9th if you exclude Dr. J's ABA years).  Again, remarkably good. 


Now, Bird has to be marked down some on the all-time list for his lack of longevity.  For example, he has 145.83 career Win Shares, 27th best all-time.  The two guys below him are Ray Allen and Gary Payton.  The two guys above him are Robert Parish and Paul Pierce.  This, of course, can be explained by the fact that Bird was almost 23 when he debuted in the NBA and he suffered a bad back that hampered him after April 1988.  Bird really only had 9 great seasons.  Again, those who rank him as a top 10 player apparently fully discount this fact and just use his best years.  OK, but where is George Mikan then?  Mikan had 6 great seasons and 5 titles.


Anyway, I digress.  Let's examine Bird's playoff performances, starting with the great.  In 1984 and 1986, Bird was the Finals MVP and he had the following great seasons:


1984 - 26 PER, 4.7WS, .236 WS/48, 2.9 VORP


1986 - 24, 4.2, .263, 2.4 VORP.


In 1981, the Celtics won it all, but Cornbread Maxwell was the Finals MVP and Bird went 22/3.1/.198/2.0


Bird has no other playoff season above .155 WS/48.  He has only one season (1987) over 3  playoff Win Shares.  His career WS/48 in the playoffs is .173 - well below his regular season marks.


If you look at Bird's THREE BEST playoff seasons, and search for similar seasons - Chauncey Billups has as many as Bird (3) and Kevin Durant has more (4).  The guys with whom Bird is always compared - LeBron, Michael, Magic, Shaq, Duncan, Kareem, Hakeem all have better stats.


Guys who aren't exactly known for playoff performance (Karl Malone, Chris Paul) appear on the list just below Bird.


In fact, if you consider basic math, Bird's .173 WS/48 in the playoffs actually gives him too much credit.  Bird had 3 seasons where he was very good and NINE where he was not particularly good.  Averaging out his three really good seasons wasn't that helpful to his teammates who suffered through his 9 subpar efforts.


If you review Bird's overall performance in the playoffs against the 20 other guys who have at least 20 playoff Win Shares, http://bkref.com/tiny/Tj0my Bird does not rank at or near the top in ANY statistic other than Free Throw Percentage.


WS - 11th
WS/48 - 14th
Points - 9th
FG% - 13th
3 point % - 10th
Eff FG% - 16th
TS% - 13th


What you see when you analyze Bird's career playoff performance, is that his playoff career was FAR from a top 1 or 2 career, certainly nowhere near a top 5 career.  Rather than comp-ing to LeBron or Jordan or Magic, Bird's nearest comp is Dwyane Wade or Dirk Nowitski.  Certainly these guys are both great playoff performers, but no one would ever assert that they are in the top 5 players of all-time. 


So - why is Bird so overrated:  1) great name, 2) the Boston PR machine for basketball is completely unmatched - it placed both Walton and McHale in the top 50 all-time of NBA players when neither deserved a mention based upon their resume; 3) for a stretch of 1984-87 it was "Bird versus Magic" so everyone links the two men and assumes their resumes are the same; they are not.  Any fair review of the two players' playoff careers shows that Magic was the better player.


So, when I revise my Top 36 list in April of 2018, you will see that Larry Bird is still not in the Top 10.  The actual numbers just do not justify that level of placement.