How Could Cleveland Possibly Win Against Golden State

The way to bet here is Cleveland to lose in 4 or 5 games.  The Warriors have 4 all-star level players including two of the top 7 players in the league.  The Cavs have LeBron and.....well, not much else (the concussed Kevin love being their second best player). 


So, let's try to imagine a scenario for a Cleveland win.


1) LeBron needs to be the best guy 4 times, and by a lot.  I really cannot see the Cavs winning unless BOTH of these things occur at least 4 times:  LeBron gets a 35 point triple double every night shooting 50% plus AND Neither Durant nor Curry are particularly good.


LeBron's Finals losses involved the following:


2007 -- the famous picture is the Spurs simply swarming around LeBron with 4 guys.  They basically demanded that others beat them, and the others could not do so (second best player Larry Hughes, while hardly a great player, was hurt in the Finals).


2011 - Mavs went zone and Dirk Nowitzki had insanely good Finals games.  LeBron did not and deferred to Dwyane Wade - an enormous error.


2014 - Kawhi Leonard played well enough that :LeBron did not enjoy an enormous advantage.  Kawhi named Finals MVP.


2015 - Iguodala gave LeBron enough problems and hit enough open shots that he was named Finals MVP (a ridiculous decision, but if the strategy is to try to limit LeBron, the guy who limits LeBron gets the award).


2017 - Durant plays LeBron even and wins the Finals MVP.


This strategy and result is similar to the Celtics' ability to have Bill Russell play Wilt down to below his average for points and rebounds and then the rest of the Celtics would outplay the rest of Wilt's teammates.


James cannot have this happen.  He needs to go 35-11-11 and then hope that for 4 games these two guys are just OK.




2) Someone like Jordan Clarkson or Rodney Hood needs to play well.  Look, Jordan Clarkson in the playoffs has been SUPER terrible.  But here is some food for thought for you.


Klay Thompson regular season, "Game Score" 10 or better - 49 games
Jordan Clarkson -- 42 games.


There is no good reason for Clarkson to be SOOOO wretched as a player.   Similarly, Hood has had some decent NBA seasons.  He and Clarkson are both .070 or so WS/48 players.  Why couldn't they have 15-20 points in 2 games?  I mean, I am not expecting Kyrie Irving level stats, but geez, they should not be SOOOOO awful.




3) The Cavs' 2-6 Players Need to play up a little and the Warriors 3-7 Players need to play down a little.


Best WS players in 2017-18 for each team (with NBA overall rank for Win Shares)-


1) James #3 in the league
2) Durant #9
3) Curry #19
4) Love #46
5) Draymond #51
6) Klay #84
7) Green #117
8) David West #138
9) Korver #141
10) Tristan Thompson #209




If #1 above occurs (James badly outplays Durant and Curry) then the rest of the equation isn't that impossible.  A good Love could outplay a disappointing Draymond,  A good Jeff Green could play the bad version of Klay Thompson even.  David West and Korver could offset each other for overall production. 


Look at some other possibilities - is Larry Nance definitely worse at this stage of his career versus 400 year old David West?


Do we really think that Kevon Looney and Jordan Bell and Quinn Cook are that great? 
Shawn Livingston didn't have much of a year.  Is he WAY better right now than George Hill?  Not that I have seen of late.


4) Some bad luck for GState -- For example, Iggy has to be out for the series.  He absolutely cannot recover and be healthy for any games. 


Also, maybe one of the Warriors' better guys can turn an ankle or get a medium severity injury that puts him out 2-3-4 games.  If Curry steps wrong on his ankle and is out for Games 2-5, that makes a big difference.


Conclusion


Look, having this all happen require a near miracle.  First of all, averaging 35-11-11 is an insane 'ask" of anyone.  Then you need both GS guys who are top 7 NBA players to play just "OK," and then you need unexpected help from someone(s) who up until now has sucked, and you need your other guys to play 10% better and their other guys 10% worse, and then you need luck. 


Is it doable?  Well, in the 1975 NBA Finals the 48-34 Warriors were heavy underdogs to a Washington Bullets team that had won 60 games and eliminated the defending champion Celtics.  Rick Barry averaged  29-5-4 and led the Warriors to a sweep of the Bullets, winning games by 6, 1, 8 and 1 points.  So, I suppose it could happen. 


That is, however, not the way to bet.