Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Caitlin Rasmussen

Sometimes seen on Internet as "Caitlyn Rasmussen".  Houston Texans Cheerleader and Miss Austin 2014.  Remarkably, originally from Kansas.

Merry Christmas, indeed!

Tetyana Veryovkina -- Just a Day at the Beach

https://music.yahoo.com/video/russian-model-tetyana-veryovkina-soaks-114015767.html

Folks, make it past the commercial.  If you have seen ANYONE EVER who looked like this at the beach, then please tell me what beach(es) to visit.

Good lord.  10 of 10.  100 of 100. 

Monday, December 15, 2014

Where Does Kobe Rank On the Best NBA Guards List?

If you sort for a Win Shares over 130, WS/48 greater than .13 and PER greater than 15, then sort again for Guard or Guard/Forward, you get 9 guys in NBA history:

Jordan
Stockton
Oscar
Kobe
West
Magic
Payton
R Allen
Drexler

If you consider the 3 categories and give 9 points for a 1st Place finish, 8 for 2nd, 7 for 3rd, etc., you get the following results:

9th -- Ray Allen (5 points)
8th -- Gary Payton (6 points)
7th -- Clyde Drexler (7 points)

HUGE GAP

6th and 5th (tie)
Kobe Bryant and Jerry West (both 17)

3rd and 4th -- John Stockton and Oscar Robertson (18 points)

2nd -- Magic Johnson (20 points)
1st -- Michael Jordan (27 points -- he is #1 in every category).

Since every other player in the top 6 other than Jordan is a point guard (or combo guard), Kobe does hold a position of greatness by position -- it just appears that shooting guard is a really terrible position.  Drexler and Allen are your next guys up, and a very good argument could be made that neither is a top 40 player.  Dwyane Wade, injuries and inconsistency and all, may be top 3 shooting guard by the time he hangs them up. 

Center -- Wilt, Kareem, Mikan, Russell, Shaq, David, Hakeem, Moses  -- all top 50

PF -- Duncan, Malone, KG, Barkley, Petit, Dirk  -- all top 50

SF -- LeBron, Bird, Durant, Baylor, Rick Barry, Dr. J.  -- all top 50

PG -- Magic, Stockton, Oscar, West, Payton, Nash -- all top 50

Off guard is the absolute worst position of the 5 for all-time greatness.

SG - Jordan, Kobe, then..........Iverson?  Clyde?  Wade?  Miller? 


You should not have a position where after your top 2 guys you are struggling to put a guy into the top 50.  All things being equal, it should be 10 off guards -- yeah, good luck with that.



Monday, December 08, 2014

Why You Don't Trade Your Best Guys In the NBA

Because there really are not that many good guys.

I set up a "good but not great" season criteria of 6 Win Shares, and 0.12 Win Shares Per 48,  then analyzed the data over the past 5 years.   http://bkref.com/tiny/HaR3F

There are over 400 players who play in the NBA every year.  If you assume a turnover of 10% a year, that means about 600 guys have trod the boards over the past 5 seasons.  Of those 600 guys, how many have had even 1 "good but not great" season?

129.

How about doing it more than once?

75 guys.

How about doing it 3 times in 5 years?  40 guys.  4 times? 22 guys.  All 5 years?  9 guys.


So when someone asks you to trade one of the guys who has been a 3X guy in 5 years, you are trading a guy who is a top 6% player over that time period.   A 4X guy?  top 3%.  And trading or losing a guy like LeBron?   He is a 9 out of 600 guy -- top 1.5%. 

When you get guys in return, there is a very high likelihood (roughly 78.5% chance) that they will never achieve the "good not great" season in a 5 year stretch.  There is an 87.5% chance that they will not have two good seasons, a 94% chance that they will not have 3, a 97% chance they won't have 4 and a 98.5% chance they will not have 5.

So, why would you trade your star?  You wouldn't, unless you are sure he is declining.....and soon.  The Wolves traded Garnett before 2007-08 season.  They thought he was declining.  He was, but he still had five straight good years in Boston -- one of only 10 guys to put up 5 during that stretch. 

In their defense, the Wolves did get Al Jefferson, who had 3 of 5 good seasons.    But then the Wolves traded Jefferson for Kosta Koufos and a low #1, thus effectively turning one of the top 25 players in NBA history (Garnett) into next to nothing.


So, when people are telling the Knicks to trade Carmelo, the Knicks know that Carmelo's replacement almost certainly will not be anywhere near as good as Carmelo.  The better idea is to ADD good players next to Melo.  This worked with a floudering Kobe and Gasol, with a frustrated David Robinson and Tim Duncan, and with Paul Pierce and Ray Allen and KG.   It is, by far, the better strategy.  You don't just say "Our team sucks, trade our best guy."  History teaches us - there just are not that many really good players.  You need to keep the one you have.

Jeremy Lin -- Hard to Be Benched in Los Angeles

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/12/8/7352721/jeremy-lin-benched-la-lakers-byron-scott

Jeremy Lin, like George Costanza, should have just left the NBA after his brief stretch of stardom with the Knicks.  Instead, he has stuck around long enough for the league to realize what he can do (score some, OK with the ball) and what he cannot do (everything else).

Kevin McHale regularly benched Lin in favor of Patrick Beverly.  Was that benching less painful for Lin?   Anyone watching Line play for 10-12 games over the past 2 years would recognize his serious limitations as a player.  Instead, the Lakers signed him and made the almost unbelievable statement that they were going to rely more upon Lin and less upon Kobe!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Think about that statement -- Byron Scott is going to go up to Kobe and say, "You just spot up and wait for the ball.  We need to use Lin more."  Hahahahahahahahaha....)

Anyway -- the Lakers' player acquisitions lately have been laughable.  Lin?  Boozer?  Retaining Wesley Johnson?  Stop me when you hear a decent player.

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Ordinarily I do not Care for "Salute to the Troops"

But the Houston Texans Cheerleaders appear to have mastered the art.