Thursday, July 02, 2015

Top 99 NBA Free Agents as of Midnight Last Night, With Status

Source --

1 LeBron James Unrestricted 

2 Marc Gasol Unrestricted 

3 LaMarcus Aldridge Unrestricted 

4 Kawhi Leonard Agreed to terms with San Antonio $90 million, five years

5 Kevin Love Agreed to terms with Cleveland $109 million, five years

6 Jimmy Butler Agreed to terms with Chicago $95 million, five years

7 Dwyane Wade Unrestricted 

8 DeAndre Jordan Unrestricted 

9 Tim Duncan Unrestricted 

10 Goran Dragic Agreed to terms with Miami $90 million, five years

11 Draymond Green Agreed to terms with Golden State $85 million, five years

12 Brook Lopez Agreed to terms with Brooklyn $60 million, three years

13 Paul Millsap Agreed to terms with Atlanta $59 million, three years

14 Greg Monroe Unrestricted    Just signed max deal with Bucks.

15 Monta Ellis Unrestricted 

16 Brandon Knight Agreed to terms with Phoenix $70 million, five years

17 Reggie Jackson Restricted 

18 Rajon Rondo Unrestricted 

19 Tyson Chandler Agreed to terms with Phoenix $52 million, four years

20 Khris Middleton Agreed to terms with Milwaukee $70 million, five years

21 Josh Smith Unrestricted 

22 Tobias Harris Restricted 

23 DeMarre Carroll Agreed to terms with Toronto $60 million, four years

24 Tristan Thompson Restricted 

25 Enes Kanter Restricted 

26 David West Unrestricted 

27 Robin Lopez Unrestricted 

28 Louis Williams Unrestricted 

29 Patrick Beverley Restricted 

30 Wesley Matthews Unrestricted 

31 Thaddeus Young Agreed to terms with Brooklyn $50 million, four years
32 Danny Green Agreed to terms with San Antonio $45 million, four years

33 Omer Asik Agreed to terms with New Orleans $60 million, five years

34 Paul Pierce Agreed to terms with LA Clippers $10 million, three years

35 Manu Ginobili Unrestricted 
36 Iman Shumpert Agreed to terms with Cleveland $40 million, four years

37 JR Smith Unrestricted 

 38 Corey Brewer Unrestricted 
39 Brandon Bass Unrestricted 

40 Amare Stoudemire Unrestricted 

41 Brandan Wright Agreed to terms with Memphis $18 million, three years

42 Carlos Boozer Unrestricted 

43 Arron Afflalo Agreed to terms with New York $16 million, two years

44 Jordan Hill Unrestricted 

45 Marco Belinelli Unrestricted 

46 Ed Davis Unrestricted 

47 Rodney Stuckey Unrestricted 

48 Kosta Koufos Unrestricted 

49 Gerald Green Unrestricted 

50 Kevin Garnett Unrestricted 

51 Jae Crowder Agreed to terms with Boston $35 million, five years

52 Amir Johnson Agreed to terms with Boston $24 million, two years

53 Jeremy Lin Unrestricted 

54 Mike Dunleavy Agreed to terms with Chicago $14.4 million, four years

55 Luis Scola Unrestricted 

56 Maurice Williams Unrestricted 

57 Aaron Brooks Unrestricted 

58 Mirza Teletovic Restricted 

59 Andrea Bargnani Unrestricted 

60 Tyler Hansbrough Unrestricted 

61 Andray Blatche Unrestricted 

62 Nate Robinson Unrestricted 

63 Al-Farouq Aminu Agreed to terms with Portland $30 million, four years

64 Thomas Robinson Unrestricted 

65 Jason Terry Unrestricted 

66 Alan Anderson Unrestricted 

67 CJ Watson Unrestricted 
68 Jonas Jerebko Agreed to terms with Boston $10 million, two years

69 Kevin Seraphin Unrestricted 
70 Michael Beasley Unrestricted 

71 Alexey Shved Unrestricted 

72 Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Unrestricted 

73 Jameer Nelson Unrestricted 

74 Gary Neal Unrestricted 

75 Tayshaun Prince Unrestricted 

76 Sonny Weems Unrestricted 

77 Alexis Ajinca Agreed to terms with New Orleans $20.2 million, four years

78 Larry Sanders Unrestricted 
79 Bismack Biyombo Unrestricted 

80 JaVale McGee Unrestricted 

81 Kyle Singler Agreed to terms with Oklahoma City $25 million, five years

82 KJ McDaniels Restricted 

83 Ishmael Smith Unrestricted 

84 Glen Davis Unrestricted 

85 Marcus Thornton Unrestricted 

86 Derrick Williams Restricted 

87 Norris Cole Restricted 

88 Richard Jefferson Unrestricted 

89 Jason Smith Unrestricted 

90 Cory Joseph Restricted 

91 Leandro Barbosa Unrestricted 

92 Wayne Ellington Unrestricted 

93 Aron Baynes Restricted 

94 Reggie Evans Unrestricted 

95 Gigi Datome Restricted 

96 Jose Juan Barea Unrestricted 

97 Nick Calathes Restricted 

98 Ben Gordon Unrestricted 

99 Matthew Dellavedova Restricted

Also Madison Lee's Birthday Today

I follow her on Twitter.

USA! USA! -- Happy Birthday to Alex Morgan

She does not want to be known for her looks, which is why she poses for pictures like this.

Friday, June 26, 2015

Generally, Young Small Rookie Point Guards Really Suck

The Wolves select Tyus Jones, whom I love (my son once hit a home run off Tyus Jones).  But history teaches us that only one small young rookie point guard has been very good -- Chris Paul. 

After that, Brandon Jennings, Tony Parker and Stephon Marbury were OK, Rajon Rondo and Isiah Thomas were mediocre and everyone else was pretty much flat out bad, even if they played a lot.

Of course, Isiah ended up in the Hall of Fame, as will Parker.  Brandon Jennings regressed.  Rondo was the PG on a title team.

So, it is safe to say that the rewards of picking Tyus Jones are unlikely to come in year 1. 
That said, the analytics guys who love Tyus state that his #1 comparable is...........Chris Paul.

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Draft Express's Top 14 picks and Some of My Comparisons

14.  Cameron Payne -- Brandon Jennings

13. Kelly Oubre - Randy Foye

Willie Cauley-Stein - Brendan Haywood

Trey Lyles -- Channing Frye

Devin Booker -- Eric Gordon

Frank Kaminsky -- Mehmet Okur/Troy Murphy

Stanley Johnson -- Marvin Williams

Emmanuel Mudiay -- John Wall (good) or Robert Pack (bad)

Krispas Porzingas -- Andrea Bargnani

Justise Winslow -- Wilson Chandler

Mario Hezonja -- Peja Stoyakovic

D'Angelo Russell -- Deron Williams

2. Jahlil Okafor -- Al Jefferson/Zach Randolph

1.  Karl-Anthony Towns -- Rasheed Wallace/Kevin Garnett

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

2015 NBA Draft Guide

These guys do a great job:

Of particular interest is their description of players by category:

Traditional PGChris Paul
Scoring PGRussell Westbrook
High Usage SGDeMar DeRozan
Facilitating SGJames Harden
Two-Way WingJimmy Butler
SpecialistsKyle Korver/Tony Allen
3-and-D wingDeMarre Carroll
Point ForwardLeBron James
Stretch 4Kevin Love
Hustle 4Kenneth Faried
Scoring PostEnes Kanter
Rim ProtectorRudy Gobert
Help 5Joakim Noah

Doug Gottlieb's Big Board

I swear to God, if Karl-Anthony Towns is a "young Sam Perkins" and the Wolves select him, I will have to be talked down off the ledge.  A "young" Sam Perkins' best year was 15-8 and 1.2 blocks.

If Towns = Perkins, here is what that means:  0 all-star game appearances, 0 all-NBA appearances, a "Hall of Fame Probability" of 0.000.


I would much prefer to think of Towns as four-time all-star Rasheed Wallace or 3-time all-star and 3rd team all-NBA player Al Horford.

I mean, if you are going to compare Towns to Perkins, you might as well declare him an outright bust and pull out names like Larry Demic or James Ray or Bill Garnett or Kwame Brown or Michael Olowokandi.  Towns is #1 on your board and is considered as the #1 pick in the draft, for God's sake.  If you are drafting a guy who will never be an all-star and who has a 0.000% chance of the Hall of Fame, you sure as hell ought to draft someone else.  D'Angelo Russell is a Steph Curry/James Harden hybrid and you have him behind a guy who you think will never be an all-star or make an all-NBA club?

The new rip on Tyus Jones is that he has poor court vision?  What Duke games has Doug Gottlieb watched?  I have watched Tyus play since high school and have seen him in AAU games.  Guys who can score want to play with Tyus because their scoring averages will go up 10 ppg.  Reid Travis was a top 100 prospect - played one year of AAU with Tyus - top 40.  Brock Bertram as a freshman was ranked super high as a college prospect because.......he played with Tyus.  Once he started playing without Tyus - stock plummeted.  I never understood why Rashad Vaughn would not play more AAU with Tyus - he would have scored 35-40 a game. 

Tyus ran the Duke offense every single possession and played 35-40 minutes a game.  I guess Duke's championship and ridiculous record against top 15 teams (something like 12-3) was DESPITE the mediocre point guard play they were receiving on, well, every single offensive possession of every single game....

Friday, June 19, 2015

Matthew Dellavedova 2015 Playoffs -- Basically The Worst Guy Who Played Much

Of 22 guys who played the number of minutes he did (497) or more, Delly ranked:

Win Shares - last
WS.48 == last
Points Per Game - last
Rebounds per game - tie for last with JJ Redick
FG% - last
2 point % - next to last (beat out teammate Iman Shumpert)
3 point % - 14th
Effective FG%   -- last
True Shooting % -- last

Interestingly, if you open up the sort to only 400 minutes played, you do get guys who challenge Delly a little for suckiness.  Marc Gasol shot .394 with no 3s, so he had a worse FG% and eFG%.

Andrew Bogut, by the by, played less than Delly and shot 5-13 from the line.

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

How Does LeBron's Playoff Work Compared to the Other Greats?

My top 36 Players of all-time:

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Ray Allen, Charles Barkley
 Rick Barry, Elgin Baylor, Larry Bird 
Kobe Bryant, Wilt Chamberlain, Clyde Drexler
 Tim Duncan, Kevin Durant, Julius Erving
 Patrick Ewing, Kevin Garnett, John Havlicek
 LeBron James, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan
 Karl Malone, Moses Malone, George Mikan
 Reggie Miller, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowtizki
 Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O'Neal, Chris Paul
 Gary Payton. Bob Petit, Scottie Pippen
 Oscar Robertson, David Robinson, Bill Russell
 John Stockton, Dwayne Wade. Jerry West.

On List and Went to 6+ finals:

Led Their Team to 6+ Finals -- That is, Were the Best Guy On 6 Finals Teams
Kareem (2 w/Bucks, I will give him 80, 82, 83, 84 w/Lakers)
Wilt (7 Finals, even by 1972 he was still 1st team all-NBA, so...)
Magic (I would say 5, but if you give him 84, which is about when the team became his, it goes along with 85, 87, 88, 89 and 91)
West (at least has an argument for the lion's share of the Lakers' appearances, I will leave him here, though it may not be possible to leave both him and Wilt on)

Guys Who Led Their Teams to 6+ Finals and Ended Up With Both More Titles (2) and More Finals MVPs (2) Than LeBron Now Has

Magic (3 MVP, 5 titles)  - note that Magic's teams lost Finals in 1983, 1984, 1989 and 1991. 
Michael (6 and 6)
Duncan (3 and 5)

Should add Bill Russell (11 titles) even though there was no Finals MVP back then.

So yes, LeBron haters, he is a terrible player and a disgrace to playoff basketball.  There are a grand total of 4 guys who have led their teams to the Finals as many times and done better overall. 

Explaining the NBA Finals 2015 Very Briefly

Most effective players in the finals:






This teaches us, of course, that James was the MVP and, if he was not, then it should have been Curry.  But, moving on.... 

If Mozgov was pretty good, why did the Cavs lose?  Well, the Cavs’ backcourt was SO awful that it wiped out virtually all of LeBron’s Wins Above Replacement (he had +1.7, they cost -1.5).

Delly, Smith, Shumpert and James Jones failed to play at a level equal to these guys:

Howard Eisley, JJ Barea and Gerald Henderson level of play would have netted the Cavs a title.

Unfortunately, rather than reaching this lofty "I am as good as a random replacement player" goal, Delly, for example, actually far, far worse.

Guys With at least 3 Win Shares in At Least 5 Playoff Seasons

1Michael Jordan*19891998CHINBA8
2LeBron James20072015TOTNBA7
3Magic Johnson*19841991LALNBA6
4Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*19711984TOTNBA5
5Wilt Chamberlain*19621972TOTNBA5
6Tim Duncan19992014SASNBA5
7Shaquille O'Neal19952004TOTNBA5

So, what you see here, once again, are my top 6 NBA players of all-time, slightly out of order (I have Magic at #6, he is #3, I have LeBron at #4, he is #2, etc.), plus Shaq (my #9 best NBA player).

If you tighten the criteria so that you also need to have a WS/48 greater than .200, you get:

1Michael Jordan*19891998CHINBA8
2Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*19711984TOTNBA5
3LeBron James20072014TOTNBA5
4Wilt Chamberlain*19621972TOTNBA4
5Tim Duncan19992014SASNBA4
6Shaquille O'Neal20002004LALNBA4
7Chauncey Billups20042009TOTNBA3
8Magic Johnson*19851987LALNBA3
9Jerry West*19661969LALNBA3

My top 6 guys plus Shaq, Jerry West and Chauncey.  How about Chauncey putting up over 3 WS on the 2009 Nuggets!?!?!?  Who remembers THAT?  Not me.