www.basketball-reference.com has added "Adjusted Shooting" s a category in its stats for each player. As of July 14, 2020, it is not searchable (which sucks) but what does it tell us and what does it not tell us?
Well, Adjusted Shooting is like ERA Plus or OPS Plus for baseball - where these stats tell you how your pitching and hitting compares to your peers that season, Adjusted Shooting tells you how a player's shooting compared to the other players of his era.
So, the benefits of Adjusted Shooting?
1) Tells us how superior or inferior a player was in creating points versus the overall league average. So, Neil Johnston, for example, played during a time period where the players shot very poorly.
From 1951-52 to 1958-59, the league average in FG% was 37.9% overall. Johnston shot .444 for his career. This led him to 6 seasons at 19 ppg or greater, 3 scoring titles and 3X leading the NBA in FG%. Johnson shot 117% of league average and shot 105% of league average from the line. He also had a rate of shooting free throw 144% of league average.
Therefore, Johnston's TS+ (True Shooting Plus) was 119 for his career - an insanely high number. Except for a year where he played under 30 games, Johnston never had a TS+ of less than 115. He was 15 to 22% more productive as a shooter every single year.
What does that tell us? Well, he was way better at getting points efficiently than the people he played against.
Then basketball-reference adds two other columns: FG Added and TS Added. These columns account for how many shots and free throws were taken while shooting the higher percentage. The theory here is that if you are shooting 100% but only taking 1 shot, you'd be far better off shooting 75% and taking 100 shots. Makes sense.
Johnston added between 180 and 290 points a year over a league average player. He was a productive and efficient payer. If you replaced him with a replacement player at league average, you'd lose 2.5 to 3.5 points a game every game.
2) The Adjusted Shooting Stats tell us/show us how crucial it is to get a lot of free throws and make a lot of free throws.
For this example, let's take Larry Bird and James Harden.
Larry Bird's career shooting averages are .496/.376/.886
Harden .442/.356/.858
Larry Bird's True Shooting Added = 1055
Harden = 2,146
Bird has played more minutes.
How is this possible? Well, in Bird's day the league's FG% was .484. He is 102% of average.
Harden 97%. When you figure in 3s, both guys get to about 103% of TS% average
So why is Harden's TS+ 112 while Bird's is 105? Well, Bird was a better free throw shooter, so it isn't percentage at the line...it is times at the line.
Harden has shot over 7,200 free throws. Bird in his entire career shot 4,471 free throws. Harden's free throw rate of attempts is 195% of average. Bird's? 79%. In NO season did Bird ever come close to shooting a league average number of free throws (90% was his best year).
So, if you count only FIELD GOALS
Bird adds 826 points
Harden adds 458 points
With free throws
Bird 1055
Harden 2146
In his entire career, Larry Bird added 229 points above league average with free throws. Harden - almost 1,700. There is no player I could find who surpassed 1,700. The guys who drew a ton of fouls and shot a good FT percentage (Oscar, Dantley, West, Durant, Karl Malone) were all 1,200 to 1,500 for their entire careers. Harden could play another 8 years - he could just absolutely bury everyone.
It is interesting that Jordan in the last 10 seasons he played never cracked 114% of league average for FT rate. Harden for his career is 195% and his last 4 years are 212, 199, 174 and 201%. So it is not your imagination, Harden shoots an insane number of free throws. As best I can tell, no good free thrower had ever shot as many, compared to league average.
So..........getting a lot of free throws and making a lot of free throws is HUGE in Adjusted Shooting. Adrian Dantley and Reggie Miller - lot of FT, made a lot, hug u on TS Added list.
3) Adjusted Shooting Generally Tells You that Defensive Players Aren't Great shooters
If you look at guys on high on the all-time list regarded as great defenders, most of them are not good at the Adjusted Shooting stat. Guys all below 1,000
Hakeem
Garnett
Pippen
Guys who are actually NEGATIVE (below league average)
Russell
Havlicek
Gary Payton ekes over 0 at 8.8
4) Some Comps that may surprise you
Hakeem's TS Added? 909
David Robinson's 1861
Hakeem had only 2 years above 100 in TS Added (1993, 1994)
David had 9 above 100 and 4 above 200.
Jason Kidd - thought to be one of the worst shooters ever - he was. Negative 806.
Isiah Thomas - wow what a wizard! What a great offensive player!! Negative 771.
That is right, Isiah Thomas was below average in 2 point FG%, 3 point FG%, exactly league average at FT%. He was far WORSE below league average in TS Added per season (negative 59) than was Kidd (negative 42)
While I am sure there is someone out there who was worse, Antoine Walker sets the bar REALLY high with NEGATIVE 1306 over 12 years. Averaging a negative 100+ over his entire career.
Andrew Wiggins - averages around a negative 80, although his 2018-19 negative 177 is worse than anything Walker ever put up.
SO, WHAT CAN'T Adjusted Shooting tell us?
Well, if you are good at all aspects of the game other than shooting, it cannot tell us that. It isn't much of a weapon to compare guys across eras. I mean, Neil Johnston's 119% TS+ is great. Does it mean that he'd put up 119% against modern competition? No. Does it tell you the opposite? No.
It also won't necessarily tell you who the best players are. As far as I can tell, Artis Gilmore at 3880 is #2 all-time behind Kareem. Is Artis the second best player of all-time? No.
It will give you a little insight and ammunition into player comps from similar eras - for example, this is yet another stat where Barkley and Robinson excel. Steph Curry has the reputation as the greatest shooter of all-time. He isn't above Oscar in any career Adjusted Shooting stat. He certainly is not the overall player Oscar was, so if Oscar is equal in TS+ (115 to 115) and leads by 1500 in TS Added, what exactly is Steph's argument?
Curry, by the way, in 2015-16 had a True Shooting % of 124% above league average and had the second greatest TS Added ever +454.7. He has never come close to that before or since.
Kareem appears to be #1 cumulative in TS Added and #1 in a single season (1972 - 460.4).
Wilt was stymied by his poor free throw shooting. Wilt regularly lost 100 points a year to poor FT shooting. Shaq was negative 1,000 for his career from the line. Both were, nevertheless, very high + for their overall Adjusted Shooting.
So - there you go.
Tuesday, July 14, 2020
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