Wednesday, November 24, 2021

The Top 75 Players of the NBA's First 75 Years, In Alphabetical Order

Not bold indicates a guy not on the NBA's official list.  I have 11 they do not have.


Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

Ray Allen

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Carmelo Anthony

Paul Arizin (5)

 

Charles Barkley

Rick Barry

Elgin Baylor

Larry Bird

Kobe Bryant (10)

 

Wilt Chamberlain

Bob Cousy

Dave Cowens

Stephen Curry

Adrian Dantley (15)

 

Anthony Davis

Clyde Drexler

Tim Duncan

Kevin Durant

Alex English (20)

 

Julius Erving

Patrick Ewing

Walt Frazier

Kevin Garnett

Pau Gasol (25)


George Gervin

Artis Gilmore

Manu Ginobili

Hal Greer

James Harden (30)

 

John Havlicek

Elvin Hayes  

Dwight Howard

Allen Iverson

LeBron James(35)

 

Magic Johnson

Neil Johnston

Nikola Jokić

Michael Jordan

Jason Kidd (40)

 

Bernard King

Bob Lanier

Kawhi Leonard

Karl Malone

Moses Malone (45)

 

Bob McAdoo

Tracy McGrady

Kevin McHale

Reggie Miller

George Mikan (50)

 

Steve Nash

Dirk Nowitzki

Hakeem Olajuwon

Shaquille O’Neal

Robert Parish (55)

 

Chris Paul

Gary Payton

Bob Pettit

Paul Pierce

Scottie Pippen (60)

 

Willis Reed

Oscar Robertson

David Robinson

Dennis Rodman

Bill Russell (65)

 

Dolph Schayes

John Stockton

Isiah Thomas

Nate Thurmond

Wes Unseld (70)

 

 

Dwyane Wade

Bill Walton

Jerry West

Russell Westbrook

Dominique Wilkins (75)

Wednesday, May 12, 2021

The Top 36 NBA/ABA Players of All-Time, May 2021.

1.  Michael Jordan

2. LeBron James

3. Wilt Chamberlain

4. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

(gap)

5. Tim Duncan

6. Magic Johnson

7. Bill Russell

8. Shaquille O'Neal

9. Larry Bird

(gap)

10. Jerry West 

11. Kobe Bryant

12. Oscar Robertson

(gap)

13. Karl Malone

14. George Mikan

15. David Robinson

16. Bob Pettit

17. Julius Erving

18. Hakeem Olajuwon

19. Moses Malone

20. Charles Barkley

21. Kevin Durant

22. Kevin Garnett

23. Dirk Nowitzki

24. Stephen Curry

25. James Harden

26. Elgin Baylor

27. Rick Barry

28. John Stockton

29. Chris Paul

30.  John Havlicek

31. Scottie Pippen

32.  Bob Cousy

(gap)

33. Dwyane Wade

34. Patrick Ewing

35. Gary Payton

36. Steve Nash

Wednesday, May 05, 2021

The Top 36 Players of All-Time, Rated by Me, As of the end of April 2021.

 Will Be Watching Their Backs in April 2024:

36. Steve Nash

35. Gary Payton 

34. Patrick Ewing

33. Dwyane Wade 

(Current guys looking to move up - Kawhi, Giannis, Westbrook, Anthony Davis)


Next Group Up - A Little Safer 
32.  Bob Cousy
31.  Scottie Pippen
30.  John Havlicek
29.  Chris Paul 

Looks Good Through April 2030 at Least
28. John Stockton
27. Rick Barry
26. Elgin Baylor

Top 25?  Now You Are Talking!
25. James Harden
24. Stephen Curry
23. Dirk Nowitzki
22. Kevin Garnett 
21. Kevin Durant

Solid Top 20 Guys
20. Charles Barkley
19. Moses Malone
18. Hakeem Olajuwon
17. Julius Erving
16, Bob Pettit
15, David Robinson
14. George Mikan
13, Karl Malone
12. Oscar Robertson
11. Kobe Bryant

Category "He Is the NBA Logo For a Reason"
10. Jerry West


The Elite - The Top 9
9. Larry Bird
8. Shaquille O'Neal
7. Bill Russell
6. Magic Johnson
5. Tim Duncan
4. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3.  Wilt Chamberlain
2.  LeBron James
1.  Michael Jordan.


By Time Period
3 Players primarily from the 1950s - Pettit, Mikan and Cousy
6 Players Primarily From the 1960s - Russell, Wilt, Baylor, Oscar, West, Havlicek,
3 Players Primarily From the 1970s - Kareem, Doc, Barry
3 Players Primarily from the 1980s - Moses, Bird, Magic
9 Players Primarily from the 1990s - Jordan, KMalone, Robinson, Hakeem, Barkley, Stockton, Ewing, Pippen, Payton

7 Players Primarily from 2000-09 --  Duncan, Shaq, Kobe, KG, Dirk, Wade, Nash
5 Players Primarily from 2010-Present - James, Durant, Curry, Harden, Paul

All-Time Teams (By Position)
First Team:
PG - Magic
SG - Jordan
SF - LeBron
PF - Duncan
C - Wilt

2nd Team
PG - Oscar
SG - West (could be PG, but better as SG)
SF - Bird
PF - KMalone
C - Kareem

3rd Team 
PG - Curry
SG - Kobe
SF - Julius Erving
PF - Bob Pettit
C- Bill Russell

4th Team
PG - John Stockton
SG - James Harden
SF - Kevin Durant
PF - Charles Barkley
C - Shaq

5th Team 
PG - Chris Paul
SG - John Havlicek (could be SF, also played SG)
SF - Elgin Baylor
PF - Kevin Garnett
C - George Mikan

6th Team 
PG - Bob Cousy
SG - Dwyane Wade
SF - Rick Barry 
PF - Dirk Nowitzki 
C -   David Robinson

7th team 
PG - Gary Payton
SG - None Left
SF - Scottie Pippen
PF - None Left 
C -  Hakeem Olajuwon

3 leftovers - Moses Malone, Patrick Ewing, Steve Nash 
(You could play Moses at PF and Nash as a SG, Ewing is then the only 1 left with no team and becomes the 8th team center, waiting for teammates).

LeBron and Michael - 2021 Edition

My work was supposed to be done by April 30, 2021, but it has generally been the case that I spill over a little.  So, May 5, 2021, time to decide between LeBron and Michael.

It is fitting that 4 years ago exactly (May 5, 2017) I listed the criteria by which I judge great players.  Here it is:

A) The primary means of evaluating a player should be his ability to excel in regular season play.  After all, without good regular season play there can be no playoff play. It is also a far larger sample size.  Playing well over 82 games is far harder than playing well over 10-12-20 games.

Advantage - Jordan.  There can be no question that Jordan was the superior regular season player.  His Bulls work, in particular, featured a sustained peak in advanced stats that even LeBron cannot match. Example, Jordan's Bulls WS/48 is .277(!) .  It is only his crappy Wizards two years that brings him down to .2505, still #1 all-time.

Jordan +1


B)  Next on the list has to be the perception of the player from those who watched him play.  I never saw Bob Pettit or Elgin Baylor play.  I do know, however, that they were deemed to be 10X first-team all-NBA.  George Mikan was named the best player in the world 1900-50.  You cannot ignore that fact.

Tie - Jordan has one more MVP and they both have double digits 1st team All-NBAs.  They were each generally regarded by people who watched them as the best player in their league for years and years and years,

C) Then I turn to advanced stats, which are an attempt to measure certain levels of play by assigning a number to them.  The greatest players generally have two things in common - a) they have huge single-season number; b) they have great longevity at a high level of performance.

Tie - both have had huge peaks and huge per-minute efforts in their careers.

D) It is at this point that you start looking at post-season play.  This is where guys like Chris Paul and Kevin Garnett and Karl Malone and John Stockton start to falter.  You will note, however, that all of those players are in my top 26 all-time, so I do not consider consistent playoff greatness to be a disqualifying factor.  It is, however, a factor and one that can impact how the player is viewed when lines need to be drawn on "is Tim Duncan a better player than Karl Malone?"  Since the goal of playing basketball is to win the title, you need to give Duncan the extra "plus" over Malone.

This is where the huge dispute arises between the LeBron crowd and the Jordan crowd.  Jordan's 6 for 6 with 6 Finals MVPs versus LeBron's 4 for 10 with 4 Finals MVPs.  It is clearly better to have 10 conference titles than 6 conference titles.  Anyone making an objective assessment would have to concede that.  But it is clearly better to have 6 wins than 4 and 6 FMVPs than 4.  

When you look at their playoff peaks, a pretty good argument can be made for James.  He has had some simply ridiculous playoff seasons (2009, 2012, 2018).  His ability to carry mediocre/poor teams is unmatched.  Jordan, however, defeats LeBron in WS/48 and BPM over his playoff career.  

Advantage?  Jordan.


E) It is at this point that you need to be able to rely somewhat on personal observation (if possible) and sort of a 'feel" for who was better.  (That is why we have all of these lists).  I fear that many lists use this factor E almost exclusively as their criteria.  I mean, ESPN has guys like Iverson and Isiah Thomas and Bill Walton and Kevin McHale very high on their all-time lists.  There is really no objective basis for these rankings - they are almost purely subjective or based upon something that once happened in one game (Isiah scored a million points with a broken ankle; Iverson stepped over Ty Lue; McHale was impossible to stop in the post (he played with Larry Bird yet averaged over 25 ppg once and over 20 only 5X))  Walton's ranking appears almost cult-like.  Yes, he could perform all aspects of the game when healthy.  He was healthy for 1 1/2 years and mostly healthy for 1 Sixth Man of the Year award.  He has 39 career WS.  His career WS performance is similar to Tom Boerwinkle's).

So, I guess my criticism of most ranking systems is that they start with E, then go to D, then maybe include a sprinkling of A.   I'd say you set your base by looking at A, B, C and then use D and E only in cases of extremely tough calls. 

The bias in my method, I will concede is AGAINST the belief that a guy is great simply because he gets a lot of shots and makes some.  And it is biased against guys who have enjoyed great post-season success (Horry, Chauncey, are disqualified from a top 36 consideration before ever reaching category D).

But I think that is the way it ought to be done.

Since I said this factor can be used in the case of extremely tough calls, and we have an extremely tough call, we need to ask what I think of LeBron and Michael.  I saw both play in person.  LeBron definitely plays like Magic.  A better version of Magic (far better defender, better scorer).  Strong, strong praise in my book.  Michael plays like Kareem - scores at will, you cannot stop him.  A better version of Kareem (higher motor, crazier competitor).  Michael and LeBron are the two best guys I ever saw play in person, and very different players.  If you had a team who was 15-67 and poorly coached, you'd pick LeBron.  If you had a team that was 41-41 and could get a good coach, you'd pick Michael.  So, this isn't a super helpful inquiry.

Tie.

As far as the issue of longevity - I do award "points" for consistently great regular season stats and for all-NBA awards and MVP Award Shares.  All of these are a function of longevity.  Certainly a guy who was great for 15 years has to get a plus over a guy who was great for 6 years.  After you reach 9-10 years of good play, however, there are diminishing returns for playing longer.  But still some credit. 

And on the issue of whether a guy who gets, say, 35 WS one year (has never occurred) and then sucks for 7 years should be ranked highly, I'd say generally no.  The exception would be if the guy was seriously injured. 

I think this is where LeBron clearly gets extra points.  He is 13x First Team All-NBA.  No one else is 12X.  No one.  Ever.  He has more All-NBA teams (1st, 2nd, or 3rd) than Kareem or Duncan, and generally played at a higher level of play than those players both in the regular season and playoffs, bot over a long period of time and at their respective peaks.  Think about that; these are top 5 all-time players and LeBron's consistent greatness surpasses theirs.  The only player who had a clearly higher sustained peak than LeBron over a 5 year stretch was Wilt.  Wilt had an insane 7 year peak.  LeBron has had a sustained peak over 2007-2020. 

Huge plus for LeBron here. 

Summary:

Wins for Jordan - A, D

Ties - B, C, E 

Wins for LeBron - Longevity (by a lot).  

2021 Result:

I am going to leave them where they sat in April 2018.  Halfway through this season, I really thought I was going to move LeBron up.  He was headed for a 5th MVP (would have tied Michael) and a #1 seed (likely 5th title) and was going to pass Wilt in Win Shares.  Then he rolled his ankle and shit just fell apart.  This leaves me on Cinco de Mayo 2021 with a decision of whether I want to move LeBron up based upon an incomplete record when his body is breaking down and he may never be great again.  Has he reached the Karl Malone with the Lakers inflection point?  

I am just not willing to move him up.  While it is VERY, VERY close, I stick with Michael for now.

Winner - Jordan.  Michael Jordan #1 greatest player of all-time.  LeBron James #2 greatest player of all-time.  LeBron can reapply in April 2024.  

Wednesday, April 28, 2021

I am Not Re-doing all of my work on Kareem and Wilt - 2021 Top 36 -- Wilt #3, Kareem #4

Wilt, in my opinion, was a better player and had a better career than Kareem.  Nothing has changed in 3 years to change my opinion enough to flip flop them.

 See https://hoopramblings.blogspot.com/2018/05/greatest-nba-players-kareem-is-4-wilt.html

As I have said before, the Top 4 players in NBA history are in some order, Wilt, Kareem, Michael Jordan and LeBron James.

So, on April 28, 2021, I have finally reached the point where I have to reconsider LeBron v. Michael for #1 overall.  Here are the rest of your Top 36 for April 2021:


Will Be Watching Their Backs in April 2024:

36. Steve Nash

35. Gary Payton 

34. Patrick Ewing

33. Dwyane Wade 

(Current guys looking to move up - Kawhi, Giannis, Westbrook, Anthony Davis)


Next Group Up - A Little Safer 
32.  Bob Cousy
31.  Scottie Pippen
30.  John Havlicek
29.  Chris Paul 

Looks Good Through April 2030 at Least
28. John Stockton
27. Rick Barry
26. Elgin Baylor

Top 25?  Now You Are Talking!
25. James Harden
24. Stephen Curry
23. Dirk Nowitzki
22. Kevin Garnett 
21. Kevin Durant

Solid Top 20 Guys
20. Charles Barkley
19. Moses Malone
18. Hakeem Olajuwon
17. Julius Erving
16, Bob Pettit
15, David Robinson
14. George Mikan
13, Karl Malone
12. Oscar Robertson
11. Kobe Bryant

Category "He Is the NBA Logo For a Reason"
10. Jerry West


The Elite - The Top 9
9. Larry Bird
8. Shaquille O'Neal
7. Bill Russell
6. Magic Johnson
5. Tim Duncan
4. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3.  Wilt Chamberlain
Now we have to pick between LeBron and Michael.  At least I have 2 1/3 days to do so.


By Time Period
3 Players primarily from the 1950s - Pettit, Mikan and Cousy
6 Players Primarily From the 1960s - Russell, Wilt, Baylor, Oscar, West, Havlicek,
3 Players Primarily From the 1970s - Kareem, Doc, Barry
3 Players Primarily from the 1980s - Moses, Bird, Magic
9 Players Primarily from the 1990s - Jordan, KMalone, Robinson, Hakeem, Barkley, Stockton, Ewing, Pippen, Payton

7 Players Primarily from 2000-09 --  Duncan, Shaq, Kobe, Dirk, Nash, Wade, Garnett
5 Players Primarily from 2010-Present - James, Curry, Harden, Paul, Durant

Forming 3 teams of 5
PG - Magic, 2nd string Oscar, 3rd string Curry
SG - Jordan, West, Kobe
SF - LeBron, Bird, Doc
PF - Duncan, KMalone, Pettit
C - Wilt, Kareem, Russell

Forming Teams 4-7
PG - Stockton, Paul, Cousy, Payton
SG - Harden, Havlicek, Wade, none
SF - Durant, Baylor, Barry, Pippen
PF -Barkley, Garnett, Dirk, none
C - Shaq, Mikan, Robinson, Hakeem

3 leftovers - Moses, Ewing, Nash 

 

Top 36 (April 2021 Edition) - 5 & 6 - Is It Duncan or Magic?

Timothy Theodore Duncan was born on April 25, 1976, in St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands.

Earvin Johnson Jr. was born on August 14, 1959 in Lansing, Michigan.

Now, one aspect of my 2018 list that caused criticism and consternation was that I had Duncan too high and Earvin too low.  So, I am not afraid to consider this criticism, and I have thought about it for 3 years.  Obviously, not much has changed and we are in the top 6 and both guy are still around (so, I am not dropping Duncan) and there is no way Magic goes up above #5, so we are where we are.

5 titles

3 Finals MVPs

Over .200 WS/48

The cornerstone of a franchise for over a decade.

These are stats/awards/status shared by both Magic and Duncan.

What is the case for Magic?  Magic went to more Finals (9) than Duncan (6).  Magic was a superior offensive player.  Magic, in fact, is arguably the greatest offensive player of all-time.  Of players who played at least 20,000 minutes of their career during 1980-91, Magic absolutely destroys the field in OBPM and ORtg, whipping guys known specifically for their offense (Dantley, Wilkins) and coming out far superior to Bird.  https://stathead.com/tiny/hQBR1

He has one more regular season MVP than Duncan.  He is 5th in MVP Award Shares while Duncan is 9th.

Even more interesting for Magic is the fact that he was showing no noticeable decline in 1991 and may have actually been a BETTER player in some ways than when he was young.  It is possible that Magic puts up another 70 WS and another 50 VORP if able to play 1992-98.  Magic, really, was headed for a career like LeBron's.

He got HIV.  

Whether you "blame" Magic for that or not, the fact is, he had a 15 WS/8 VORP season in 1991 and he was going to be 32 years old.  It is altogether possible that Magic could have been the #1 player of all-time.  But he is not.  He is, as a result of HIV, 14th in VORP and 24th in WS, while he is 3rd in BPM and 9th in WS/48.  OK, so that is Magic.


Duncan?  Well, he is THIRTY TIMES either All-NBA or All-Defense.  30x.  Think about that.  Gary Payton is like 18x.  Duncan - 30x. That is just silly.  He was the anchor for the Spurs on defense from 1998 to 2016.  He is second all-time in Defensive Win Shares behind Bill Russell.  Duncan won titles while competing against the Shaq/Kobe Lakers.  He beat LeBron's team twice in the Finals.  He has one more first-team All-NBA than does Magic.  Magic played with Kareem, who is a top 4 all-time player.  Duncan never played with a top 4 all-time player and still won the same number of titles.

I rank Tim Duncan so high on my list because I see him as sort of our generation's Bill Russell, except he could score.  In 1999 and 2003 and 2005, Duncan carried his team to the title...on both ends.  In 2003, Duncan had 5.9 playoff WS.  That is the most ever registered in any playoff year.  Then he won in 2007 against a terrible Cavs team.  By 2013 and 2014, he had reloaded with new guys and was winning again.

So, how good was Tim Duncan?  Awfully, awfully good.  And if you want to nitpick, he got the most first-place MVP votes twice, as did Magic (Magic's 3rd MVP was the only time the guy getting fewer first-place votes won).

I thought about it, but I am sticking with Duncan.  Duncan is one of the best defensive layers if all-time.  Magic?  0 All-defense awards and absolutely no one ever promoted him for one.  Longevity and defense need to be rewarded somewhere.  I think this is as good of a place as any.

#6 - Magic Johnson

#5 - Tim Duncan

The #7 Player of All-Time (April 2021 Edition) - Bill Russell

 William Felton Russell was born February 12, 1934 in Monroe, Louisiana.  

Bill Russell's Celtics won 11 titles out of his 13 years, losing only to Bob Pettit's 1958 Hawks and Wilt's 1967 Sixers.  During his 13 years in the league, Russell won 5 MVPs and had the following MVP Placements:

7-1-2-2-1-1-1-3-1-4-3-4

Russell has 133 Defensive Win Shares.  In the history of the NBA and ABA, Wilt has 2 10DWS seasons and Russell has 6.  That is it.  That is the end of the list.  Russell has a SIXTEEN DWS season!  Russell was not only clearly the greatest defensive player of all-time, he is MILES ahead of second place, and he was probably 25 years ahead of anyone as far as roaming around and blocking shots.  Literally. Watch some old Russell footage, you will feel like you are watching a player from 1990 roaming around and playing help defense while the remainder of the guys on the film are just standing around next to their men.  It was not until the late 80s and early 90s that guys realized that this was probably a great strategy defensively and they ought to start doing it.  So Russell was playing a style in the Kennedy Administration that no one really picked up on until the first Bush Administration.  That is simply mind boggling.  Compare that to Golden State learning in 2015 that barrages of 3s will kill an opponent and every team in the league picking that up about 2 years later.

So, in light of all of his titles and the fact that he probably also would have won 8+ Finals MVPs, why isn't Bill Russell #1?  Well, the offensive numbers are just SO bad.  Early in his career, Russell was a slightly above league average shooter in a league where shooting was pretty poor.  Thereafter, below league average.  PER - bad; OWS - under 30 for his career; he NEVER averaged 19 PPG despite playing nearly the entire game.  He was an above-average assist guy for a big man, but he played on teams full of Hall of Famers and almost never scored, so you'd hope he could register some assists by throwing the ball to Sharman, Cousy, Havlicek, Heinsohn, Jones, etc.

He and Wilt played in the league 10 years together.  First-team All-NBAs?  Wilt 7, Russell 2, Unseld 1.  I think the general belief of the players at the time was that he was the most important player in the league, but not necessarily the best.  

I concede that Russell is extremely difficult to rank.  If all you care about is titles, he is obviously #1.  He led his team to 11 titles.  (He had a lot of help, but he was the key guy).  If you want a guy who shines on both ends of the floor, he isn't it.  If you want a guy with overall advanced stats, he certainly isn't it (20th in WS, 28th in WS/48, not Top 100 in PER).  If you judge him based upon his advanced stats, he is just a Top 20 player (Moses, Hakeem, David area - Bob Pettit, for example, is 7th in PER and 16th in WS/48).  

I am going to say #7 - that seems like a sane ranking (ESPN has him at #4).  I won't dwell on it - it is now April 28 and I have promises to keep, and miles to go before I sleep.

Tuesday, April 27, 2021

The #8 Player of All-Time (2021 Edition) - Shaquille O'Neal

Shaquille Rashaun O'Neal was born on March 6, 1972 in Newark, New Jersey.  

Now, imagine, if you will, that your reputation was that you dogged it in the regular season, were routinely out of shape, and just turned it on for the playoffs at the last second.  Now imagine that your regular season awards included an MVP, 8x First Team All-NBAs, 2 2nds and 4 3rds.  And imagine that your stats included this run:

23-14 & 3.5 blocks

29-13-2.9

29-11-2.4

26-11-2.1

26-12-2.9

28-11-2.9

26-11-2.5

29.7-13.6-3.0

29-13-2.8

27-11-2

27-11-2.4

22-11-2.5

23-10-2.3

Most 21-10-2 seasons?  Shaq.

1Shaquille O'Neal19932005TOTNBA12
2Hakeem Olajuwon19861996HOUNBA11
3Kareem Abdul-Jabbar19741981TOTNBA8
4David Robinson19901998SASNBA8
5Tim Duncan19982004SASNBA



Shaq still finished Top 5 in MVP balloting 8x.  Shaq is still 7th all-time in regular season MVP Award Shares, despite his reputation.  

That is the amazing thing about Shaq (4 titles, 3 FMVPs, reached 6 Finals with 3 teams), there is no doubt he could have been WAAAAAAAY better in the regular season,  Yet he's 15th in rebounds, 9th in blocks, 10th in points, 13th in WS, 4th in PER.  

Then in the playoffs?  My lord, look at all of the black ink.  At some point in time, he led the playoffs in scoring, rebounding, blocks, WS, WS/48, VORP.

His 1999-2000 season and playoffs is a Top 10 season of all-time.  How is your favorite guy's peak?  Well, if it is 1999-2000 Shaq, that is quite a peak.

Adjusted shooting for his career?  3,800 without free throws, 2,800 with free throws.  Effective FG% Plus for his career?  120 (120% of league average).  My lord.  

So if I love Shaq so much, (1) why don't I marry him, and (2) why #8?  Well, you just have to deduct some points for his 1 MVP and his constant missing of games in his prime.  That hurts your team.  He won his conference titles with Penny and Kobe and Wade, and he got a LOT out of those guys in the deep playoff runs.  They made his life a little easier.  

What you see with Shaq is he is a Top 5 all-time playoff performer and probably a top 10 regular season player.  That doesn't get you a top 5 rating.  I'm gonna give him #8.  Has an argument for a couple higher; has an argument for a couple lower.

The #9 Player of All-Time - Larry Bird

 Larry Joe Bird was born on December 7, 1956 in West Baden Springs, Indiana.

Bird would not reach the NBA until just before his 23 birthday, and his heel and then his back went on him by age 31, ending his time as an all-time great player.  Bird, therefore, really only had 9 great seasons.  But boy were they great.

Bird won 3 MVPs and his MVP placements in those 9 years are scary good:

4-2-2-2-1-1-1-3-2

Of the Top 9 players on my list, Bird falls only below LeBron and Jordan and Kareem for career MVP Award Shares (see chart at bottom).  Therefore, in his 9 great years, he put up some hellacious numbers.  For example, he is the only player to ever go 24-10-6 for a career.  From 1984 to 1987, Bird was at his peak and was a great peak performer.  

24-10-6.5

29-10-6.5

26-10-6.8

28-9-7.6. 

Those are just crazy numbers for a 4 year stretch.  

So, why not higher?  Longevity isn't great (compare Kareem, Duncan, LeBron, Russell, Wilt, even Shaq), his playoff advanced stats are not the great (he is top 5 in no playoff advanced stat - WS 12th, WS/48 27th, BPM 11th, VORP 6th).  And he only has 2 Finals MVPs (MJ 6, LeBron 4, Kareem, Magic, Shaq, Duncan 3 each).

For a guy with a 9-year crest/peak, you'd think he'd be higher in the per minute regular season stats of WS/48 (23rd) and BPM (7th).  To gain extra points for greatness over a shorter period of time, you'd like to see 5 MVPs and 5 FMVP and top 3 in WS/48 or BPM.  You aren't seeing that.  You'd like to see, for example, that he has a far higher playoff BPM and WS/48 and Net Rating than Kawhi Leonard.  You aren't seeing that -- https://stathead.com/tiny/yCdGe

So, truly a great player, but he just has too much against him to get above #9.

1.LeBron James8.813
2.Michael Jordan*8.115
3.Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*6.105
4.Larry Bird*5.612
5.Magic Johnson*5.104
6.Bill Russell*4.748
7.Shaquille O'Neal*4.380
8.
4.296
9.Tim Duncan*4.278
10.
4.202
11.Wilt Chamberlain*4.152

Who Remains - The Top 9 of All-Time (April 2021 Edition)

9 players are left to rank in the next 4 days.  They are, in alphabetical order:


Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 6 MVPs, 6 titles, 3 FMVPs, all-time leading scorer, 15x some sort of all-NBA


Larry Bird - 3x MVP, 3 titles, 2 FMVPs, 4th in career MVP Award Shares.  146 WS.


Wilt Chamberlain - 4 MVPs, 2 titles, 1 FMVP, all-time leading rebounder, 2nd in PPG, 1st in RPG, 247 WS


Tim Duncan - 2 MVPs, 5 titles, 3x FMVP, 30x All-NBA or All-Defense, 10x first-team All-NBA, #3 in Drtg and #2 in DWS.  206 WS


LeBron James - 4 MVPs, 4 titles, 4 FMVPs, 16x some sort of All-NBA, 241 WS


Magic Johnson - 3 MVPs, 5 titles, 3 FMVPs, #1 APG, #3 BPM, #6 ORtg. 156 WS


Michael Jordan - 5 MVPs, 6 titles, 6 FMVPs, 10x first-team All-NBA, #1 PPG, #1 WS/48, 214 WS


Bill Russell - 5x MVPs, 11 titles in 13 years, #1 DWS, 11x All-NBA of some sort, #2 in TRB and RPG, 163.5 WS (133 of them defensive).




Monday, April 19, 2021

Numbers 12 to 10 -- Ranking the Top 36

 12.  Oscar Robertson -- It really pains me to not have Oscar in the Top 10, largely because virtually every single guy aged 65 to 85 I have ever spoken with has told me that Oscar was the best player, period.  Here is the thing - he was clearly an outstanding player, and he has some amazing positives.  Only player in the Top 10 in APG and PPG; 9x first-team All-NBA; MVP placements over an 8 year stretch of 5-3-3-1-2-3-4-5.   Was 5th in MVP balloting playing WITH Kareem on a title team.  189 WS, 11th most all-time, and he rolled them up every single year.  (4-3-2-2-1-3-2-2-3-5-6).

But Oscar got 0 titles on his own, and his teams were not exactly knocking on the door.  Bob Cousy actually said that he felt Oscar didn't play enough to win.  Whether that is true or not, he didn't win without Kareem.  And his PER and WS/48 don't show him as a top 10 player.  That said, his regular season stats are superior to Jerry West's, and he has an MVP and a title.  I think Oscar may be a little diminished in my eyes because I did not see the great Oscar play.  I saw the Milwaukee Oscar play.  While I was always impressed with West and Wilt and Kareem, the Oscar I saw backed the ball up the floor and fed it to Kareem in the post.  I mean, that is 100% the right thing to do, but I really cannot bump him up any spots by saying, "Well, you guys don't know.  You didn't watch him play!"

I am going to put him here and hope that guys born between 1936 and 1956 don't all show up at my house looking to kick my ass.

11.  Kobe Bryant - I will move him ahead of Oscar.  5x champion, 1x MVP, 11x first-team All-NBA, 2x Finals MVP.  When you the top 20 of this list, you are playing in some really rarified air.  I mean, I saw Barkley play a LOT and know how good he was.  He was 20th.  Doc (4x MVP) is 17th.  Now you are fighting for spots in the Top 10.  Virtually everything you have done in your career will be analyzed.  Look at Kobe's advanced stats:

Win Shares - 19th

WS/48 - 62nd (!!) 

PER - 27th

BPM - 30th

VORP - 12th

In these categories, Kobe NEVER led the league for a year.  NEVER.

There are a number of players who are high-volume, low-efficiency players (Isiah, Iverson, Westbrook).    Kobe is basically their king.  He did the high-volume, low-efficiency schtick better than everyone else.  His adjusted shooting is about +1,100.  That is good, not top 10 good.  100% of Kobe's adjusted shooting + is......free throws.  

But anyway, Kobe had a great career.  Could it be argued that he maybe ought to be Top 9?  Yeah.  Could it be argued that he could be dropped several spots?  Yep.  I think 11 is fair.

#RIP.

10.  Jerry West -- we have just gone through a list of great players, many of whom were hurt by their post-season play.  Jerry West may have never won a regular season MVP (10x First-Team All-NBA, MVP placements of 2-2-2-2-3-5-5-5, adjusted shooting plus 2700) but his playoff stats are crazy.  There are 4 players in the history of the NBA with 20+ playoff Win Shares playing at a .200+ rate.  Jordan, James, Johnson, West.  That is it.  

https://stathead.com/tiny/3wMcZ

He is 3rd in playoff PPG.  He leads the Finals in total points and is 3rd in Finals PPG.  Jerry West has 1,679 Finals points.  Steph Curry has 741.  IF we are going to give Kawhi Leonard Top 36 consideration (which I did) based upon his great playoff stats, we should recognize that Kawhi Leonard has 362 Finals points.  If he quadruples his 362, he'd have 1,448.  Do you think we wouldn't be talking "Kawhi Leonard top 10" if he did that?  

I realize that Jerry West went 1-8 in NBA Finals.  He was Finals MVP one of those loss years.  In 1962, Frank Selvy had a wide open jumper to win Game 7 and beat Russell - miss.  

In any event, Jerry West is a top 10 player.  I tell you what - the next guy to get 1,500 Finals points and average 30 PPG, I will put him in my Top 10 also.  So if Steph Curry more than doubles his production while pushing his Finals average up 4 1/2 points per game, he is in.  I think LeBron would need to average 35 PPG for his next 20 games to push his Finals average up to 30PPG.  Kevin Durant?  He has the average, he just needs...........1045 more Finals points.

Friday, April 16, 2021

Top 36 ranked in 2021 - ##16-13

 Since we are more than halfway through the month, I better get things cranking up.

It is interesting that players ##16-13 on my 2021 list are all going to be guys who will draw some criticism for how high I have them.  You know what?  If your list of all-time greats simply copies everyone else's list, your value to this exercise is 0.  While that fact doesn't justify putting, say, Marcus Banks or Marcus Liberty as a top 40 player, I am more than comfortable with this grouping of 4.


16.  Bob Pettit - I honestly cannot understand why lists have Pettit down in the 30s.  It baffles me.  Pettit played 11 years, won a title, won two MVPs, is one of two guys to lead his team over Russell's (Wilt is the other), probably should have received Cousy's MVP, so he should have three.  Yet he is ranked down in the 30s with guys with no MVPs, no titles, and like 3 first-team All-NBAs.  It is baffling.  Anyway - Pettit was 10X 1st team All-NBA.  His MVP placements are 1-1-2-2-3-4-4-4-6, meaning that in his 11 seasons he was regarded as a top 4 player 8 times and a top 6 player 9 times.  His MVP placements are better than his contemporary Elgin Baylor.  During his playing days, it was probably Russell/Wilt/Pettit.

Only 6 guys have ever been the all-time leader in career points scored.  Pettit is 1. He retired at #1 in points and #2 in rebounds.  Today, 55 years after he stopped playing, he is 14th all-time in WS/48 and 7th in PER.

Player Efficiency Rating
1954-55 NBA 24.4 (2nd)
1955-56 NBA 27.3 (1st)
1956-57 NBA 28.0 (1st)
1957-58 NBA 26.3 (1st)
1958-59 NBA 28.2 (1st)
1959-60 NBA 23.7 (3rd)
1960-61 NBA 25.2 (4th)
1961-62 NBA 24.2 (5th)
1962-63 NBA 25.0 (3rd)
1963-64 NBA 23.6 (4th)
1964-65 NBA 22.6 (4th)
Career NBA 25.3 (7th)
Career 25.3 (7th)

Enough said.  I will fight this Pettit battle until the day I die.


15.  David Robinson 

Here are some of David Robinson's key statistical placements:

Win Shares Per 48 - 5-2-2-6-1-1-2-1-1-3-1-5 (#2 all-time)
PER - 5-3-2-6-1-1-1-3-3-5 (3rd all time)

Win Shares 16th all-time
BPM - 6-4-2-6-1-1-2-1-4-6 (4th all-time)
VORP - 5-2-3-5-1-1-2-3-7 (10th all-time)
Defensive Rating - 2-2-1-6-8-3-1-1-1-1-2-2-3-4 (4th all-time)

He has two titles, an MVP, 4x All-NBA first-team, 1-2-2-3-3-6-6-7 MVP placements.  He had a 20 WS season.  20.  He won a scoring title.  He scored 71 in a game.

Again, I will go to my grave defending the greatness of David Robinson.

14.  George Mikan - George Mikan stopped playing in 1956.  24 years later, he was determined by people who were alive to see him play to still have been a Top 11 player in the history of the game.  He won 5 titles, 3x had 20+ WS.  Retired as the all-time leading scorer in league history.  If they had the awards when he played, he probably has around 4 MVPs and 4 FMVPs which would mean it would be him and Jordan and LeBron and probably Bill Russell.  And he'd have 5 titles, which LeBron does not have.  So there is an argument that he is a top 3 player.  So how much do you reduce for the lack of longevity?  I mean, I have seen lists with Bill Walton claimed to be a Top 40 player.  Walton played 1 1/2 great starter years and 1 great bench year.  2 titles.  So, you do have to drop Mikan some (otherwise, why isn't Giannis on my list?) but I think 14 is a fair landing spot.

13.  Karl Malone - I have said it before and I will say it again, if Karl Malone's regular season career is all you consider, he is a top 5 all-time player.  Top 5.  It is my top 4 guys and Karl.  

WS - 4th
VORP - 4th
Points - 2nd
Rebounds - 8th
2 MVPs, 3 WC titles
MVP Placements - 1-1-2-3-4-4-4-5-7-7-7
11x first-team All-NBA (tied for 2nd all-time)
While I cannot seriously endorse it, it bears noting that he was even 3x 1st team all-Defense!!  Bird and Magic combined?  Zero.

So, those playoff failures?  What do you do?  I think you need to say that players with this level of regular season success and 3 conference titles deserve to still be ranked high.  His longevity is insane and yet his per minute stats still hold up.  But there are ZERO players in my remaining 12 who have no titles.  The group of 12 guys has 53 titles.  AND I can honestly say that I have heard at least someone say that they consider each of the Final 12 players to be the greatest player of all-time.  I have never heard anyone say that they consider Karl Malone to be the greatest player of all-time.  So, while you could make an argument for Karl all of the way up to #9, I will stop him at #13.

Thursday, April 15, 2021

Side Story From 1983 - Just Reminded of today

 We take a break from the 2021 Top 36 for this story.  I was criticized today for putting Splenda in my coffee, and I remembered this story, taking me down a rabbit hole from 38 years ago.

The year was 1983.  I was a 2nd year Honors Scholar at my college.  The new class (20) of Honors Scholars had arrived at the school and we were supposed to be nice to them and tell them our experiences, etc.  This, of course, caused me to try to find a good looking female to hit on and potentially date.  There were two primary targets, one we will call Dani, though I am unsure what her actual name was - I think it was a unisex name.  She was short and dark-haired and had some passing interest in talking to me.  The other we will call Angry because she appeared angered by anything I said to her or the fact that I would give her any attention.  

Dani asked me to review some poli sci classroom issues, and she even had breakfast with me to discuss them.  It certainly didn't have the makings of a torrid love affair, but she smiled when we passed in the halls and she was pleasant.  Angry - not so much.  I tried to avoid her all I could.  

We went to a reception one night at a professor's house.  I hung with my sophomore friends.  About 45 minutes from the end of the night, they served us coffee.  Angry walked over to me and said, "What do you have there?"  Coffee.  "Can I have a sip?"  Sure.  "This is like CANDY!  You drink CANDY COFFEE!?! I at least thought you'd be kind of manly.  Geez.  I didn't think I could think LESS of you, but I do."  Um, OK.  She walks away in disgust.

Now, we get about 1 month into the semester and I have almost achieved the courage to ask out Dani.  I mean, why not try?  I come home one day and the guy across the hall (Dave) is pouring bleach all over our shower stall.  He is in this disgusting shower stall just scrubbing away.  Me, "?"  Dave, "I have a date with this girl tonight and she said she'd really like to take a shower with me."  OK.  "She is really excited."  Now, Dave was a pretty terrible guy, basically imagine the stereotype of every bad movie's "college tool" guy.  Me, "Well, good for you Dave,  Good luck,"  Dave, "Her name is Dani.  Complete freak."

Well, yeah... that was the end of that.

Anyway, I also remember about 2 months later that Angry one night at a party came up to me as I was sitting on a couch and said something to the effect of, "Hey, I hear you like me."  Me, "What?"  Her, "Look, it seems like you like me.  Don't.  I have a boyfriend."  Me, "OK."  Suffice to say, I did not hang out with that class thereafter if I could help it.  The girl I had my eye on enjoyed wild shower sex with the biggest tool I knew, and the girl I had managed to avoid due to her anger issues had the belief that I secretly pined for her.  

Anyway - all this comes back from just a similar coffee comment made 38 years later. 

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

Players 17 to 22, April 2021 Edition

 22) Kevin Garnett - 4x first-team All-NBA, MVP placements of 1-2-2-3-5.  Numerous All-Defense years, DPOY.  Overall, Garnett's career in the NBA is defined by two sets of evaluations - 1) in his Minnesota years, he was wildly underrated as a player (example, 2004 he should have easily been unanimous MVP, another example, in 2005 he led the league in rebounding, Win Shares, VORP, BPM and he was DROPPED to 11th in MVP and 2nd team All-NBA), 2) in his Boston years he was wildly overrated, but he played with better players and won a title where Paul Pierce was FMVP.  So, I guess it all balances out.

Garnett is the best "out on the floor" defender I have ever seen.  He also was a guy (similar to David Robinson) where you could put him on any crappy team and he'd elevate the team by a LOT of wins in a short period of time.  Not a great offensive player, but made himself above average.  Run the Timberwolves' lifetime record with and without him and see how that makes you feel.

21) Kevin Durant - look, the guy has a couple titles and a couple Finals MVPs and is 6x All-NBA, and has MVP placements of 1-2-2-5-5, but what I really focus on are those 2013 and 2014 MVP battles with LeBron.  I mean, my goodness.  Durant is playing 3,100 minutes and putting up historically great statistics.  He beats LeBron in 2014 and loses to him in 2013, but my goodness are those two great years.  How great?

https://stathead.com/tiny/n4wX9

I think that Kevin Durant feels a lot of pain from not being seen as the player that LeBron is.  I think it REALLY bothers him, and I think it is the reason he went to Golden State and the reason he left Golden State.  He REALLY wanted some titles for his legacy, and then when people said, "Great, Harrison Barnes has a title too" he had to go to Brooklyn to try to win his own title (which it appears he realized wasn't going to happen, since they went out and got Harden).

His regular season advanced numbers and honors are roughly the same as Harden's, and he has better regular season numbers and awards than Curry.  So, they are at ##25 and 24, I will leave him up here at #21, but he still doesn't crack the top 20.  He probably has an argument for 20.  He also can reapply in 2024.  If he has a couple Nets titles by then, he will move up significantly.

20) Charles Barkley - in 1993, Charles Barkley played as well as Michael Jordan.  He was MVP, led the Suns to the Finals and they lost in 6 games despite games where Chuck had like 44-24-5 on 65% shooting.  That pretty much sums up the career of Charles Barkley. He is great, often historically great, yet he could never quite win it all.  Barkley was 5x first-team All-NBA and had MVP placements of 1-2-4-4-6-6-6-6, meaning he was recognized as a top 6 player 8 times but was only 5x first-team.  Bad luck. Barkley is the only player in the history of the NBA who ever won the most MVP first-place votes and yet was not MVP (1990, Jordan and Magic split the vote and Magic won).  More bad luck.

Most "Game Scores" of over 30 (a star level game) -- 1) Jordan, 2) LeBron, and then.........3) Charles Barkley.  Run any advanced stat or Game Score stat and/or adjusted shooting stat - Barkley is WAY up there at the very top.  Almost +3,000 adjusted shooting!  TS% 12th, PER 12th, Win Shares 17th, BPM 14th, VORP 11th, ORtg 12th, WS/48 14th.

Barkley was insanely good.  Kevin Durant will need to wait until 2024 to pass him.

19) Moses Malone - there is a defect in The Matrix, because I am changing his spot.  Sorry, Moses.  Upon years of reflection, I have to move him down to 19.  Look, Moses was a great players and SUPER dominant (3x MVP, FMVP, MVP placements of 1-1-1-3-4-6, 5x first-team All-NBA).  His 1983 season he was so dominant that he declared before the playoffs "fo, fo, fo" and actually ripped through 4-5-4 due Moncrief spoiling things.  But he SWEPT the Magic/Kareem Lakers in 1983.  Swept them.  Kicked Kareem's ass so badly that he got his regularly scheduled Moses Malone Migraine.  His offensive rebounding totals are insane, as if he was actually playing a different game than every other player who played basketball after 1974.  Most career Offensive Rebounds:

1.Moses Malone*7382
2.Artis Gilmore*4816
3.Robert Parish*4598
4.Buck Williams4526
5.Dennis Rodman*4329
6.Charles Barkley*4260
7.Shaquille O'Neal*4209

But Moses drops a spot anyway because I am going to elevate an existing player on my 2018 list a couple spots.  I will blame this on Moses's rather pedestrian advanced stats (he is something like 40th in VORP), but it is really a decision to give a different player more credit.

18) Hakeem Olajuwon - also a victim of re-ranking.  A truly great player (MVP, 2X Finals MVP, 6x first team All-NBA).  His MVP placements aren't super great (1-2-4-4-5-5-7) and his playoff record is pretty poor other than the two title years.     He tends to be a little overrated on most boards.  If you go through his WS/WS/48, BPM, VORP, Adjusted shooting, etc. you aren't seeing a top 10 or top 12 all-time player.  

17) Julius Erving - As always with Doc, it depends upon how you evaluate those ABA years.  But having had three years to think about it, I am moving him up.

If you give full credit, he has 4 MVPs and 9x All-League, so imagine Rick Barry with 4 MVPs.  His MVP placements are 1-1-1-1-2-2-3-5-5-6.  TEN times in the top 6 and nine times in the top 5.  And then you ask what people at the time felt.  Well, Kareem and he made the 35th Anniversary team in 1980.  So, as of 1980, he was regarded as one of the 11 best players of all-time.  This ranking came from people who had actually seen him play.  From 1974 to 1986, Julius Erving won more professional basketball games than any other player and played in the Finals 6 times, winning three titles.  Look, I am just going to move him up.  You can say I am giving him 50% credit for the ABA or 40% or 67%.  Who cares?  He is 17th.