Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Statistically Best and Worst NBA MVP seasons in the Past 30 Years

The 6 Worst

6.  Hakeem 1993-94 -- 14.3 Win Shares, .210 Win Shares Per 48.  Jordan was off serving his suspens....I mean, off playing baseball...

5.  Larry Bird 1983-84 -- 13.6 and .215 -- Bird's worst numbers out of his 3 MVP seasons.

4.  Derrick Rose 2010-11 -- 13.1 and .208 -- I have always been confused at this selection.  Rose was 5th in total Win Shares and 10th in WS/48!!!!!  Tenth.  I guess the LeBron to Miami backlash was so extreme that the writers jumped on any bandwagon they could find.

3.  Steve Nash II 2005-06 -- 12.4 and .212 -- in his defense, it is difficult to put up Win Share numbers this big when you only play 1 end of the court.  In his two MVP seasons combined, Nash didn't have 4 defensive win shares.

2.  Steve Nash I 2004-05 -- 10.9 and ,.203 -- criminal

1.  Allen Iverson 2000-01 -- 11.8 and .190 -- the only MVP season under .2 WS/48 in the past 30 years.  10th in Win Shares, did not reach the top 10 in WS/48.



The 5 Best

5.  LeBron 2012-13 -- 19.3 WS and .322 WS/48.  Could rank higher, but his overall minutes were down compared to the top 4.

4 and 3 and 2 (tie)  Jordan 1995-96 -- 20.4 and .317
LeBron 2008-09 -- 20.3 and .318
Jordan 1990-91 - 20.3 and .321
 -- At this point you really start splitting hairs, but I could not split these.

1.  Jordan 1987-88 -- 21.2 and .308 -- no one in the past 30 years has put up 21 WS in a season.  While Jordan was not quite as efficient in this season as he would later prove to be, that 21st WS gets him the #1 spot.

Wolves Fucked Over By Ed Malloy's Incompetence (With Radio Call).

http://blogs.twincities.com/timberwolves/2013/12/30/wolves-now-wolves-fight-back-but-fall-to-mavs/

The league has now issued a statement indicating that, in fact, Ed Malloy did not do his job and blew a call 3 feet away from him involving a top 10 NBA player being obviously hacked on a late game jumper at home.

http://blogs.twincities.com/timberwolves/2013/12/31/wolves-now-coach-adelman-might-get-fined-for-comments/

An awful, awful non-call.  But this is the same Ed Malloy who gave Luke Ridnour a T last year for asking what he did to be called for a foul.  Ed Malloy blows - figuratively.  I doubt there are any gay men who could ignore Ed's awful officiating long enough to allow Ed to literally blow them.

Monday, December 30, 2013

Happy 29th Birthday to LeBron James

The 6 best Win Shares players as of age 29 -- http://bkref.com/tiny/6PXZ9

LeBron #1 in overall Win Shares, but trails Jordan in WS/48.

Friday, December 27, 2013

Best Football Players of All Time. Examining "Approximate Value" and "Approximate Value Weighted'

www.pro-football-reference.com has a couple of stats designed to evaluate who are the greatest NFL players of all time.  Approximate Value.  Approximate Value (weighted).

What the stat's inventor did, was try to evaluate each season and assign a number (17 and above would be MVP year, 10 would be an average year).  For the "weighted" rating, the player's best season is mutiplied by 100%, next best 95%, etc., down to his 19th best season being 5%).  I am not really sure why, but I guess what that would tend to do is punish greatness over a long period of time and reward someone like Jim Brown who had 9 great years - note that Jim Brown is 11th on the weighted list and 21st on the non-weighted list.

The results are a bit troubling.  Fran Tarkenton is a much, much better player than Jim Brown or Lawrence Taylor?  Lou Groza was way, way better than Anthony Munoz?  Where is Joe Montana?  He did win 3 Super Bowls and ushered in an era of throwing the ball every down that we still use today......but I guess he was no Carl Eller, or for that matter Steve Young!

So there are some major flaws in the system - it doesn't seem to comport with what most people would tell you who actually watch football.  (As I have pointed out before, beware of stats which result in big gaps between reality (Luis Scola ain't a great defender) and the statistical result (he is the 7th best defender in the NBA)).

But even flawed stats do provide us with lists of players who uniformly do well within those categories and who also are regarded as all-time greats by people who have watched them play.  So if you take these lists and eliminate the guys who only appear on one list (Marshall Faulk, Seau, Berry, Tomlinson, Eller, Blanda), you get the following Top 22 NFL Players of all time.

22.  Walter Payton (49 points, 24th on one list, 25th on the other).

21.  Emmitt Smith (46)

20.  Munoz (40)

19. Steve Young (39)

18.  Lawrence Taylor and Alan Page (33)

16.  Tom Brady and Jim Brown (32)

14.  Bruce Matthews (28)

13.  Derrick Brooks (27)

12.  John Elway (26)

11.  Rod Woodson (24)

10.  Lou Groza and John Unitas (20)

8.  Dan Marino (16)

Note -- there is an ENORMOUS move between 8th and 6th.  Marino has 16 points, the 6th place tie has 9 points.  Marino places 8th and 8th.  Everyone 6th and above has an average placement of 4.5 or better.

7.  Bruce Smith (13)

6.  Fran Tarkenton and Reggie White (9)

4.  Ray Lewis (8)

3.  Brett Favre (6)

2.  Peyton Manning (5)

1.  Jerry Rice (4)

Now -- I presume that pro-football-reference.com does not have in Manning's 2013 season.  That means when they do (it will be a 20+ season) that he will be first overall on BOTH lists and move ahead of Jerry Rice (even first and second would do it). 

So, as of January 2014, the 5 greatest NFL players of all time will be:

Manning
Rice
Favre
Ray Lewis
Reggie White or Fran Tarkenton

Tom Brady will also move up higher, surpassing Jim Brown and possibly a couple others.



Here is Approximate Value (weighted) top 25 as of today: 



Here is the Approximate Value (not weighted) top 25 as of today.

ObamaCare Estimate -- Almost 9 million helped thus far

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Dialect Map

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/12/20/sunday-review/dialect-quiz-map.html?_r=0

I got HEAVY similarity scores in Buffalo, Detroit and Grand Rapids.  Minnesota - only somewhat.

A Festivus Carol

while the holiday has passed, I just read a story about how Christian groups are very threatened by the idea of Festivus being celebrated....so I am stoking the flames.



Friday, December 20, 2013

Fucking Socialist Obama....

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC+Interactive#symbol=^gspc;range=5y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

How can people expect to live in this country when Obama is driving the stock market into the toilet?  I mean, Bush leaves and we are at 831 on the S&P.  Now we are only at 1,822.  Come on.  Oh wait, I guess that is 219% in under 5 years. 

Hey, well, with compound interest that is only ...........17% per year.......which is pretty good I guess.  But, um,

George W. Bush!  -- well, negative 37% overall...but HE was pro-business.

GWB after the 9-11 market collapse?  -- negative 9% --


OK -- but Obama is still a Kenyan, Socialist, Commie, un-American guy.

Warren Buffett -- Increases His Net Worth at $380.34 a second in 2013.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/warren-buffett-made-380-34-a-second-in-2013-08h_PW2IQruK75mzjAY_EQ.html

I was going to say "$380 per second" but then I realized that making only 34 cents a second would be $10,722,240, hardly a mere rounding error.

Someone making $100,000 per year makes almost one-third of a penny per second.  Actually $0.0031709.    Buffett makes 110,000 times more than that person.

Of course, my example is not apples to apples since Buffett is not receiving $11B in new salary.  rather, his investments growth of 24% this year creates his additional wealth.  But the typical person making $100,000 per year (studies have shown) has virtually no net worth and lives paycheck to paycheck.  So if we ask how much did their net worth grow in 2013, the answer may very well be $0.

Thursday, December 19, 2013

Kobe - Fractured Knee -- Out 6 More Weeks

Can we start calling Kobe, 'Derrick Rose 2.0"?

Kobe's stats for 2013-14:

85 offensive rating
107 defensive rating
NEGATIVE 0.3 win shares
177 minutes.


Only two Hall of Fame level players have posted such a horrible season -- Ralph Sampson and Joe Fulks.

If Kobe cannot come back and play (6 weeks is basically February 1, so he should come back) he will have posted the WORST EVER SEASON BY A HALL OF FAME PLAYER whose HOF entry will not be because of his college career.

Kobe's NEGATIVE win shares have caused him to fall even farther behind Dirk, Duncan and KG.  If LeBron could put up 12 WS the rest of the year (possible) he would be a measly three behind The Devil on the all-time list, LeBron having played 400+ fewer games than Kobe.

Could it be that Kobe is finally shot?  It is one thing to blow an Achilles - Nique was an all-star after blowing an Achilles late in his career.  (Greek men everywhere are reading this and saying, 'I blew an Achilles yesterday and still played three pickup games....")

But then to come back and start breaking leg bones at age 35?  You are moving into Bill Walton/Sam Bowie territory there.

We shall see.  and since I was raised by the annoying woman who raised me, "Geez, Kobe, drink some more milk...."

Better Looking Jewish Girl -- ScarJo or Bar Rafaeli?

http://www.wmagazine.com/people/celebrities/2012/11/scarlett-johansson-red-carpet-lookbook-ss/photos/slide/

Or


http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=Bar+Rafaeli+gallery&qpvt=Bar+Rafaeli+gallery&FORM=IGRE

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

15 Hottest Sports Chicks




Thanks to RKG.

My top 8:

8. Meghan Hardin
7. Alex Morgan
6. Arianna Celeste

(I rate those 3 a "9 of 10") I rate the remainder a 10, so I just need to split hairs for 5-4-3-2-1/

5. Ellen Hoog - loses points because her pose is so obviously favorable, she may just be a low 10 rather than a high 10 if she stands or sits up.

4.  Ana Ivanovic - stunning, but not QUITE at the body level of the top 3.
3.  Alana Blanchard - the constant thong shots I have seen indicate she may have the world's best ass.
2.  Allison Stokke -- just beautiful and ridiculously built.
1.  Michelle Jenneke -- the girl whose body and no makeup face you look at and say, 'Ridiculous, just ridiculous."

Of the list of 15, I only have two 7's (Wozniacki and Patrick).  5 8's, 3 9's amd 5 10's.


Tuesday, December 17, 2013

This Is Where I Grew Up

I guess the present owner fixed it up.

Monday, December 16, 2013

States With the Most Million-Dollar Income Tax Filers

http://www.bloomberg.com/visual-data/best-and-worst/most-million-dollar-tax-filers-states

9 of top 10 -- voted for Obama.

16 of top 20 - voted for Obama.  (You could argue 17, since NC once voted for Obama).


The dirt poor southern states, however, continue to reliably vote for the party whose only real policy position on a national level is to cut taxes for millionaires......most of whom are located in blue states.....

Sigh.

Friday, December 13, 2013

Michele Bachmann votes against Budget Deal

which gives me the chance to re-post this video......


Thursday, December 12, 2013

Ten "WTF" NBA All-Stars for 2013-14 Thus Far

You see LeBron and Durant and Chris Paul way at the top of statistical categories and you say, 'ho, hum", but some other guys deserve a mention for their "WTF?" NBA stats thus far.  (I am using basketball-reference.com's list of season leaders as of 4PM on 12/12/13):

Gordon Hayward -- most minutes played in the entire league
If someone asked me - what NBA team really needs what guy to play the most minutes? -- and you gave me 30 guesses, I would never reach Gordon Hayward.

Evan Turner -- #1 in total turnovers and #7 in field goals made!!
Getting a lot of clock, making the most of it.....at least on volume of effort

Aaron Afflalo - #11 in total field goals attempted.
If yesterday you told me, "Aaron Afflalo blew out his knee and left the league 3 years ago" I might have been skeptical, but I also might have believed you.

LaMarcus Aldridge -- most field goals attenpted and made in the entire league.
Yeah, no one has a reputation of "shameless gunner" like.....LaMarcus Aldridge?....

Gerald Green - #7 in 3 pointers made.
The Timberwolves had Gerald Green 5 years ago and never played him...and that was like his 4th NBA stop.  He was being traded for washing machines and tickets to "Cats".  Now he is jacking 6+ threes a game and playing over half the game on an OK team?  (I must concede, I had to go look three times to confirm that this was the guy -- I feared there was some NEW guy named Gerald Green who had entered the league, that is how unlikely this was to me).

Josh Smith -- #19 in 3 pointers attempted
You really gotta give JSmoove credit.  He has never been a good 3 point shooter, but he gets the Pistons to bite on him despite a terrible year last year (negative offensive win shares for the season), so he starts jacking up 4.5 threes a game despite a career percentage of .282.   And he is hitting.......272.   PER under 13, negative OWS.
Awesome.

DeMarcus Cousins -- #1 in Usage Percentage -- 35.2
The next closest guy is 3 points lower.  The next closest center is Brook Lopez at #19 overall.  No center has EVER played an entire season with a Usage Percentage over 35.  Never.  Has never occurred.  Jermaine O'Neal played under 50 games in 2004-05 and had a 36 Usage rate, that is the only true contender.  LeBron James' final 3 years in Cleveland, he was in charge of the entire offense.  His Usage rate never exceeded 33.8.  Cousins is also fouling (4.2 per game) and turning it over (3.4 per game) at an alarming rate.  He plays 30 minutes a night and no one will accuse him of being inactive.  Wow.

Luis Scola -- #7 in Defensive Rating
I remember when Donyell Marshall would be top 20 in PER and say, "well, there are obviously some flaws in the stat."  Scola at #7 in DRtg?  yeah, playing on a good defensive team helps a lot, but there is obviously a huge flaw in this stat.

Tiago Splitter -- #9 in Win Shares Per 48
Every year we are told at the start of the playoffs, "Tiago Splitter does a lot for the Spurs.  He is really good."  Yet once the tough games start, we never see it.  I guess we just need to watch the Spurs wipe the floor with the Milwaukees of the world more often to truly appreciate Tiago....

Carlos Boozer -- #18 in Defensive Win Shares
He has been a mediocre defender since his Duke days.  I guess what this stat and the Scola stat tell us is that if you play PF on a good defensive team, you will have great defensive stats.

Happy 43rd Birthday to Jennifer Connelly - One of My All-time Favorites!



If you ever want to feel super attracted to a bad, bad person, see Jennifer's performance in "House of Sand and Fog." 

Friday, December 06, 2013

Krugman On Obama's 'Inequality" Speech

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/06/opinion/krugman-obama-gets-real.html?hp&rref=opinion&_r=2&

Here is my spin on the current debate.  By 1977, we had reached the point where labor unions had a lot of power.  Guys were making $70,000 doing manual labor.  The interesting thing for the Republican Party is that many of these folks agreed with the idea that the Democratic Party was "tax and spend" and wasn't going in the right direction.  If you are making $70K and you know you are going to make 5-7% more each year, you want your taxes to be low. 

That pro-union system was destroyed by PATCO, Reagan, foreign cars and foreign steel between 1978 and 1982.  Ever since, wages have not been increasing, the CEOs are taking ridiculous amounts of money compared to the workers, robots and other automation have replaced a lot of low-skill jobs, and so we have a world where there are the rich and there are the poor, but very few people making $70-$200K.

Romney says 47% pay no federal income tax -- certainly true.  A number of those folks are retired and on Social Security, so I suppose we could just limit their SS benefits instead of taxing them.  But even for the working poor, wages and job security are poor.  I go back to the story of my cabbie in Cincinnati who was working three jobs.  The guy wanted to work, was working, and yet he wasn't making what a union member would have made in 1977.

My dad graduated from high school in 1955.  At his 40th high school reunion, he got back together with guys who went from high school to work on the assembly line, worked 40 years, bought company stock, and were retired millionaires at age 58.....with a pension.

I graduated high school in 1982.  I missed my 30th reunion, but I would wager, based upon Facebook interactions, that there are no similar stories from my class.  No one with just a high school degree has a 40-year steady employer and a million dollars and a pension. 

What does that tell us?  That work is no longer valued.  You read the newspaper and see stories of companies "unable to find" welders -- yeah, they are paying $18/hour.  So the guy who swept the floors at Lackwanna Steel in 1977 made way more than a skilled welder can make now.  what happens when you actually pay workers $100,000 a year?  You have situations like The Bakken where guys are driving 300 miles to live 10 to a house and working 100 hour weeks to make cash.  There are plenty of people who want to work, but they just don't want to work for a wage that puts them at just above poverty level (U.S. poverty level is stated to be about $17,000 - imagine you are an adult living on $17,000 a year, good luck).

So while in 1977 the pendulum had swung perhaps too far toward the workers, it has now swung wildly the other way.  I often suggest that if the government wanted to grow jobs that what it could od is go to the CEO of every major company and say, "If you want to pay no taxes this year, add ________ jobs making at least $60,000 a year."  They would do it.  I know it would be a breach of fiduciary duty, but they would call it "marketing" or "public relations" or some such thing.   And you know what?  it would spur job growth -- the CEOs would become REAL "job creators" and we could reward them for it.

Anyway, I am now just rambling, but I guess my point is this -- we need to find a way to head back closer to 1977's labor market than we are right now.  If we don't, we will become more and more like Brazil:  pockets of enormous wealth surrounded by acres of poverty.

Thursday, December 05, 2013

Abby Huntsman -- Wow

Saw Abby Huntsman on MSNBC yesterday with Al Sharpton.  My lord.  How did I miss this for the 2012 campaign? 


 
 
 

Grant Hill - Financial Mogul

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-05/grant-hill-s-wall-street-whirlpool-chats-pave-way-to-john-mack.html

Most interesting part of the story -- "Grant" was name given by Roger Staubach.

Tuesday, December 03, 2013

Detroit -- Officially Bankrupt

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-03/detroit-to-remain-under-bankruptcy-protection-judge-says.html

If you read down in the article, you will see that the emergency manager suggested replacing $5B of pension and other obligations "with a $2B note paying 1.5%.'

Now imagine if you were a Detroit police officer for 30 years and managed not to get killed in the line of duty.  You said, 'Yeah, but I can retire at 50 with full pension......"  Now you realize that your $30,000 a year pension will be replaced with a promise to pay $12,000,  yielding 1.5%.  And if they cannot make that reduced payment.........well, welcome to BK part II -- enjoy your 40% of that 40% ($4,800).

Hopefully, New York state will have a viable pension system at least as long as my parents survive.

Land of Borat Endorses Polygamy

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-02/rich-kazakhs-revive-polygamy-as-young-women-seek-poverty-escape.html

I had a client who is a plastic surgeon.  he told me that generally the plastic surgery breast implant business works as follows:

-- rich guy age 45-55 gets a 22 year old mistress.
-- she is hot, but not super hot, since the guy couldn't have banged her if she was super hot
-- she isn't particularly happy about banging the guy, but he buys her stuff, so she bears it
-- she has a young guy whom she also bangs
-- the rich guy about 6 months in says, 'You are a 6, but you would be a 9 with monster tits'
-- he pays for her implants
-- at the 6 month post-op appointment, if all is well, she dumps the old guy and goes out and gets a 25 year old guy who has money.

So, the Kazahk men actually have it a little better.  They generally keep the young wife.