Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Monday, August 25, 2014

Mychal Thompson - Jerry West and Steve Kerr Vetoed the Love Trade

Now this is a screwed up team when you have the owner and GM agreeing to do something and then THEY get vetoed?????  Um, OK.

Look, Klay Thompson is an ELITE shooter.  When left open, there is scarcely a player in the league who I would rather have shooting for my club.  That is one reason I think he will be so great on Team USA.  But Klay Thompson has a limited upside.  He isn't going to be a young Ray Allen, ever.  He has low assist, rebound, free throw and steals+blocks totals.   He is a really, really good shooter, and he is tall.  But that is about it.

If I woke up tomorrow as GM of the Warriors and you offered me Andrew Wiggins for Klay Thompson, I may not take it, since the Warriors are a 50 win team.  But if you asked me whether Wiggins or Thompson will be better in the 2016-17 season, I don't know that answer.  Thomspon is a more durable Danilo Galinari.  Would I trade Danilo for Love?  Absolutely.  In a heartbeat.

Klay Thompson's PER has never reached league average (15) for a whole season, and he has played MUCH worse in the playoffs than in the regular season.  Ray Allen's PER for his first three years - 14, 16, 19.  Then he kept steady around 20-22. 

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Most Productive Per Minute NBA Players Who Will Be 25 and Younger in 2014-15

Using last year's production, and limiting the search to guys who were 24 or younger and who had a WS/48 figure over .15. (Minutes played at least 1,000).

1 James Harden age 24 -- 12.8 Win Shares
2 Blake Griffin 24 -- 12.2

big drop

3 Paul George 23 -- 10.8
4 Anthony Davis 20 -- 10.4
5 Andre Drummond 20 -- 9.9
6 Serge Ibaka 24 -- 9.6
7. Damian Lillard 23 -- 9.6

big drop

8 DeMarcus Cousins 23 --7.9
9 Kawhi Leonard 22 -- 7.7
10 Terrence Jones 22 -- 7.3

big drop

11 Mason Plumlee 23 -- 4.7

Noticeably absent from the list (due to a failure to make .150 WS/48) - John Wall, DeMar DeRozen, Kyrie Irving, Jonas Valanciunas, Kenneth Faried, Lance Stephenson, Klay Thompson, Derrick Favors, Ricky Rubio, Greg Monroe, Kemba Walker.

Nicki Minaj "Anaconda" Video

Basically Sir Mixalot with a lot of crappy rapping and solid stripping thrown in.

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Monday, August 18, 2014

Shawn Marion v. Scottie Pippen v. Adrian Dantley

Win Shares, ranked best to worst. Marion - slightly better than Pippen, slightly worse than Dantley.
Shawn Marion14.613.012.512.
Scottie Pippen 13.112.712.311.811.
Adrian Dantley 14.613.612.812.612.210.510.

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Elise on "Bachelor in Paradise" -- Insane, But Not Totally Unlike Women I Have Dated

Elise was told by Dylan last night, "If you offer me a rose, I will not take it.  Do not offer me a rose."  Her reply, "Why are you sending me mixed signals?"

This followed a long stretch where he told her, basically, to F off and stop smothering him.  To which her psychological response, naturally, was, "Well, he loves me so much, he just feels smothered by all of his love for me."


Anyway, a couple similar stories from old HM:

-- 1982, dating a girl from 4 towns away, but I decide to also date the lead in the school play.  Lead in play feels I should ask her to the prom.  No way - I am asking my real gf.  So I just ignore the not-so-subtle hints that are being given.  Finally, one play practice I say, "Look, I have a gf who lives 4 towns away and I am taking her, NOT you."  Tears are falling....

I show up for school the next day - lead in the play comes up and plants one on me at my locker.  Uh..............!?!?!?  "I understand that you felt obliged to ask that other girl.  Too bad you made that commitment months ago, but good for you to honor it."  Um, I have NO IDEA where those pieces of information came from.  I had asked the other girl a day or two before telling the lead in the play.  It wasn't a months-long commitment.  I never said anything of the sort to the lead in the play. But she had convinced herself that this was the best explanation, so she/we went with it.

-- 1988 -- living in Minneapolis, but had a gf from law school.  Dated a good looking blonde girl from MN for the summer.  I went to the airport and bought a ticket for my gf to fly up to Minneapolis.  MN girl found out.  (Story is actually way worse, but moving it along).  Tears are falling.....

GF stays with me Friday, Saturday, Sunday.  Tuesday I get done with work and I am bored, so I figure, why not call MN girl?  Will at least be entertaining to hear how mad she is at me.  Call -- "How is your little slutty gf?"  Um, well, she left.  "So why are you calling me?"  Just wanted to say hello.  How is it going?  "Well, better now.  You called me."  Would you like to go to the movies this weekend?  "How about tonight?"  Uh....OK.

Driving to the movies, here is the line from her, "Well, I figured you had forgotten all about me once you brought your little tramp up here, but when you called I recognized how much you cared about us."

Um, OK.  The mind can be very powerful at rationalizing things I guess.

Monday, August 11, 2014

Whose Butt? (Clue - She's Patriotic)

Greg Oden - Punched His Cheating Girlfriend Three Times in the Face

In his defense, he did stop when he saw that the woman was getting blood on his mom's couch.  If Oden could hit her, she obviously was either standing dead still or not moving hardly at all.

Greg Oden is 26 years old and has made over $24M playing basketball.  He lives with his mom?  OK, so maybe he loves his mom, but......he brings chicks home at 3:30 a.m.?  And he hangs out with his EX-GF?  Huh?  Look, Greg, I assume you made $12M after taxes (assume he got some endorsement money his first couple years).  If you live with your mom, maybe you can find some girl who will date you exclusively for your money?  I mean, you should have some spending money.  You made $1.2M last year for doing nothing.

Nicki Minaj "Anaconda" Album Cover Memes

It puts me in mind of the great Foreigner Album cover from 35+ years ago.

Friday, August 08, 2014

Bill Simmons on Kevin Love (With My Reply)

Simmons says Love is Underrated.  As a 26 year Timberwolves season ticket holder, I am probably one of the very few people in the world who have watched Kevin Love play a lot every season he has been healthy as a pro. Kevin Love has played 364 NBA games.  I have seen probably 130 in person and 150 or more on TV.  I can tell you virtually anything you need to know about how Kevin Love has played and can play in the NBA.  My conclusion is that he is a Second Team All-NBA player and people have serious questions about his greatness.  He is....."Properly Rated."

The first thing you need to know is that Kevin Love is an extremely selfish player.  I would say that he is an extremely selfish and self-centered person as well, but that analysis isn't based upon spending 600 hours around him.  I have probably seen him play for 600 hours, so I have a fair sample to say he is a selfish player.

Shane Battier is a great winner.  His teams almost always won.  He is a huge team guy, great defender, willing defender (will try to guard anyone), great in the locker room and doesn't care if he stands in the corner for 29 straight possessions and never sees the ball, he will stand there if he is asked to do so and when LeBron throws him the ball and he is open, he is ready to shoot it.

Kevin Love is none of those things.  He is not a big team guy, is a terrible and unwilling defender, poor in the locker room, and if he is not seeing the ball, there will be hell to pay.  If his team is winning by 30 and he has 10 points and 10 rebounds, he wants back in the game because he isn't getting his averages.

How poor is Love as a defender?  Cannot defend out on the floor, cannot defend down low, poor pick and roll defender, never gets a steal, never gets a block, extremely terrible help defender (virtually invisible) and he isn't really even willing to take a few fouls to establish an interior presence.  Love's 1.6 steals+blocks per 100 possessions makes him about as active in those areas as Wally Szczerbiak was. 

So those are the weaknesses.  Love defensively reminds me of a quote I once heard about Mark Aguirre, "I don't think he would be a good defender if he tried, but he will never try, so we will never know."  Love is not particularly quick, doesn't jump real well, and is built kinda stocky (versus long and lean).  He is also undersized, standing only a little over 6'7" in bare feet. 

Defensively, Love really needs to play with a big shot blocking center.  He never has, unless you count Darko (which you maybe could, if you could stand to watch Darko play).

So, as a team player, Love -- 30 out of 100
As a defender - Love - 20 out of 100.

He is terrible at these aspects of the game. 

Ball handling - good in the post, can shot fake and take one dribble, not awful - 62 out of 100

Then you hit his sweet spots:

Passing - since he was told numerous times that great players need better assist stats, Love has become a willing passer and his outlet passing is spectacular.  90

Shooting - one of the most skilled big men I have ever seen play the game.  Has every type of shot - 97.

Rebounding - Rodman or Moses Malone-esque -- 100

Flopping/Getting to the Line -- 98 (maybe Harden is better, or maybe not)

So what you have in Love is one of the starkest contrast of any player ever to play the game.  He has rebounding, passing and shooting skills combined that are roughly the equivalent of Larry Bird (worse passer, better rebounder).  Yet defensively and as a teammate he is right there in Rashad McCants/J.R. Rider territory. 

On the one hand he has a skill set equal to a top 10 all-time player.  And on the other hand, he is so poor at certain aspects of the game that he could be out of the league if he had to rely upon those skill sets.

The problem with Kevin Love leading a team to the playoffs (which he has not done) is that he lacks a physical ability that is simply overwhelming.  He isn't huge (Kareem, Shaq, Duncan, the Malones), he isn't ridiculously fast (Jordan, LeBron, Wade), he isn't explosive (Elgin Baylor, Nique, Drexler).  He doesn't have a freakish ballhandling ability for a bigger man (Oscar, Magic, LeBron).  He isn't freakishly long and lean for a shooting player (Durant, Dirk).  He isn't able to guard all five positions (Garnett).

If you don't have superstar athletic ability of some sort, it is hard to be an all-time great.  You can find exceptions, most of them 20 plus years ago and white - Bird, Rick Barry, Stockton.  But Bird and Stockton played hard on both ends of the floor and were consummate team players.  Rick Barry's first 4 years that they kept the steals stat he averaged almost 3 steals + blocks!!!  His steals plus blocks figures were DOUBLE those being put up by Kevin Love.  And Barry was not regarded as a particularly great defender.  But he contributed something positive on that end.

 I believe that Kevin Love is recognized by most people as a top 10 NBA player who has some enormous holes in his game which keep him from being a top 3 player.  That is, in fact, what he is.  So, on the Simmons scale, he is "Properly Rated."


Mitch Richmond A Hall of Famer? Uh, No.

Look, I am not going to dispute that the Basketball Hall of Fame has really hit some clunkers.  (Calvin Murphy?  Guy Rodgers?) but those guys are so far off from what should be the standard to get into the Hall of Fame that their selection cries out "embarrassment" more than it leads to any serious consideration of what the standard should be for a Hall of Fame player.

But Mitch Richmond - he was a very good player.  So should he be a Hall of Famer?

Mitch Richmond had 0 first-team all-NBA selections.  He had 0 times that he finished in the top 12 in the MVP balloting.   So he was NEVER ONCE deemed to be among the top 12 most valuable players in the league, and, even with Michael's retirement for two years, he never made first team all-NBA.  He was a 6 time all-star.

Go to the link and review his Win Shares "similar players" - do you see any Hall of Famers?  No.  Walter Davis was, arguably, as good of a player.  Dan Majerle's teams had more success and his Win Share performance was almost identical.

The strength of Mitch Richmond was that he played a lot of games on bad Kings teams, so he got a lot of two things -- shots and minutes.  Look at those minutes logged by Mitch Richmond for 11 years straight!   Was he an efficient player?  No.  He had two years with a PER over 20.  Two years.  Vince Carter's CAREER PER is 20.  Vince has had 8 years with a PER over 20.

After this year, it is likely that Mitch Richmond will have fewer overall Win Shares than Vince Carter has just offensive Win Shares. 

Mitch was the All-Star Game MVP one year, shooting 10 of 13.  The remainder of his All-Star games?  15 of 44.  So, his much touted All-Star moment was really just one good game, mixed in amongst many bad games.

Again, Mitch Richmond was a very good player.  And he was recognized with 3 second team and 2 third-team All-NBA selections.  But if we select Mitch Richmond as a Hall of Fame player, how do we possibly keep out Joe Johnson?  Look at their comparisons:
While Mitch's stats and honors are slightly better, Joe's teams have been consistently better than Mitch's teams were.  Joe has been a 7 time all-star.

Have we really reached the point where if you were a 6 or 7 time all-star that you are a lock for the Hall of Fame?  If so, I guess I will just have to swallow hard and accept it.  But I would prefer to think that a true Hall of Fame player should have been either:  1) a top 3 starter on a championship  team; 2) a couple times first-team all-NBA; 3) top 10 in MVP balloting at least 2 times; 4) possessing some otherworldly skill that deserves recognition (10 times all-defense, 3 times Defensive POY, rebounding champ 4+ times, etc.); or 5) top 10 all-time in one particular positive stat of note.

Neither Mitch Richmond nor Joe Johnson meets any of those criteria.  I don't think those criteria are overly difficult.  Will there be some borderline guys left out?  Sure.  But it appears that the HOF is just putting guys in now because they are running out of good candidates and need to present a program in August. 

Thursday, August 07, 2014

Ninja Turtles Out this Weekend

Thus, giving rise to a Megan Fox pic or two.

Tuesday, August 05, 2014

Team USA - And Then There Were 16 (With Predicted Final Roster)

Still remaining in the U.S. pool of players are guards Derrick Rose, Stephen Curry, Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, DeMar DeRozan, James Harden, Kyle Korver, Damian Lillard; forwards Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, Chandler Parsons, Gordon Hayward, Kenneth Faried; and centers DeMarcus Cousins, Mason Plumlee and Andre Drummond.

Sorting this media report by position:
PG -- Rose, Curry, Irving, Lillard

SG - Thompson, DeRozan, Harden, Korver, Hayward

SF - Durant, Parsons,

PF - Davis, Faried

C - Cousins, Plumlee, Drummond.

Word is that Cousins (injury status - insane) is almost certainly gone.  So what are your three remaining cuts? 

1) I would say Lillard is almost certainly gone.  He is a full step below his competition at PG.  Unless Rose or Irving gets injured, Damian will see the final cuts as a bad Omen.

2) We obviously have too many SGs and not enough SFs (Paul George's horrific injury costing us a lot of minutes at that position).  I would say that Hayward is almost certainly a cut.

3)  Therefore, the final cut comes down to Korver and DeRozan.  Since Coach K appears willing to keep Curry (1/2 white), Thompson (same), Parsons (white), and Plumlee (white) he has 3 of 12 already as white-equivalent.  So that spells doom for Korver.  DeRozan is more athletic and gives energy that Korver cannot.  Durant will be playing 35 mpg in close games, so he will get to shoot 10+ threes a game.  Curry is a top 5 shooter.  Klay Thompson when left alone is a great shooter.  Irving is streaky, but when he gets it going he is a 5-6 3PtA a game guy.

My predicted Final Roster, starters first

Curry, Irving, Rose
Harden, Thompson, DeRozan
Durant, Parsons
Davis, Faried
Drummond, Plumlee

Unless the opponent has a good 6'10" plus center, the lineup in crunch time will likely be

Curry, Harden, Durant, Davis and whoever else has shown the hot hand from 3 that day.  Klay Thompson and Chandler Parsons will have every opportunity to shine.  With Paul George, we would have had an amazing top 5 (##1, 4, 5, 12 and 14 in the league in WS).

Monday, August 04, 2014

Dustin Johnson's "Personal" Issues -- Cocaine and Other Guys' Wives

Hoops Maven @HoopsMavenHM 4s
Dustin Johnson - he does like, he does like, he does like...cocaine: (and banging other golfers' wives).

Jennifer Lawrence Back on the Market

Top 25 Rookie Seasons In the Past 25 Years

And there is a tie for #25.   Note that there are no teenagers on the list.  Sabonis was 31.  Robinson (having served his two years in the Navy) was 24.  Bird (who spent a year at Indiana and then 4 at Indiana State) was 24.

Some of the most surprising entries?  Bill Cartwright?  Really?  Brevin Knight?  Tripucka?

1 David Robinson* 1989-90, age 24,  15.1 Win Shares

2 Michael Jordan* 1984-85, age 21, 14.0WS

3 Tim Duncan 1997-98, age 21, 12.8WS

4 Larry Bird* 1979-80, age 23,  11.2WS

5 Magic Johnson* 1979-80,  age 20, 10.5WS

6 Chris Paul 2005-06, age 20,  10.4WS

7 Shaquille O'Neal 1992-93, age 20,  10.4WS

8 Hakeem Olajuwon* 1984-85, age 22,  10.2WS

9 Blake Griffin 2010-11, age 21,  9.8WS

10 Bill Cartwright 1979-80, age 22, 9.7WS

11 Zydrunas Ilgauskas 1997-98, age 22,  9.4WS

12 Larry Johnson 1991-92, age 22,  8.9WS

13 Buck Williams 1981-82, age 21, 8.9WS

14 Yao Ming 2002-03, age 22,  8.7WS

15 Terry Cummings 1982-83, age 21,  8.7WS

16 Brevin Knight 1997-98, age 22,  8.4WS

17 Arvydas Sabonis* 1995-96, age 31,  8.4WS

18 Alonzo Mourning* 1992-93, age 22,  8.2WS

19 LaPhonso Ellis 1992-93, age 22,   8.0WS

20 Chris Webber 1993-94, age 20,  7.8 WS

21 Jeff Ruland 1981-82, age 23,  7.8WS

22 Pau Gasol 2001-02, age 21, 7.6WS

23 Mark Jackson 1987-88, age 22,  7.6WS

24 Elton Brand 1999-00, age 20,  7.5WS

25 Charles Barkley* 1984-85, age 21, 7.5WS

26 Kelly Tripucka 1981-82, age 22,  7.5WS