Friday, November 16, 2012

Michael and Wilt Lead List of 17 best Statistical Players of All-Time

Players With 100 Career Win Shares, PER Over 21, and Win Shares Per 48 Over .200:

Karl Malone
Michael Jordan
John Stockton
Oscar Robertson
David Robinson
Tim Duncan
Charles Barkley
Jerry West
Bob Pettit
LeBron James
George Mikan

(Notably absent - Hakeem, Garnett and Kobe all do not have a WS/48 above .200).

If you then take these 17 guys and give them points for where they rank in the top 17 for each category of WS, PER and WS/48 (give 17 points for being first, 1 point for being 17th), the 5 best guys are:

Michael Jordan - 47 points
Wilt - 43 points
Kareem and David Robinson (tie) - 38 points
LeBron James - 31 points

Those are your 5 greatest statistical players of all time, with longevity figured in.

Guys who the stats do not support:
Bird - bottom 40% on the list in every category
Magic - everyone always assumes he is a top 5 player; he was not top 5 in any category

Was it Stockton or was it Malone?  Stats say it was Malone.  He played longer and played better.

Guys Who the Stats Favor - David Robinson (4th best overall, great in PER and WS/48)
Shaq, Duncan, Charles - all very close to LeBron for 5th

Special case - George Mikan was an unbelievable player.  #3 and #2 overall in PER and WS/48.  But he played so few years that he ranks 17th on this list in total Win Shares.  So you could ignore longevity and say he was a top 3 overall player, but then you'd have to go through and pick out the best, for example, 7 seasons for everyone and compare them to Mikan's career.  I don't feel like doing that, so we are stuck with giving Mikan a big negative grade for playing so few seasons.  Even with a "1" for longevity, he ends up just behind Shaq at 6, tied with Duncan at #7.

Duncan and Mikan (tie)
Karl Malone

Bob Pettit
Stockton, Oscar, Dirk (3-way tie)

16 and 17
Jerry West
Larry Bird


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