Thursday, June 09, 2016

Cavs Get Game 3, Now Get to Determine Their "Relative Worth"

Generally the worse team in any series will get a game. It is almost always Game 3 featuring a huge pop from the fan base or Game 4 where the opponent simply doesn't care and would rather just take Game 5 at home.

There are rare exceptions - Philly took Game 1 from the Lakers in the famous Iverson steps over Lue game and then lost 4 straight.  I think Miami won Game 2 in 2014.

Anyway, I predicted GState in 5.  My thought was that the Cavs were way worse but would get a game.   Now the Cavs can show where they stand on the GState scale

Are they Houston (lucky and happy to get a game)?   Are they basically Toronto value to Cleveland (won two home games - never really a threat to win series).  Are they Seatle 1996? (Got two games after it was too late)?  Are they Utah 1997-98?  (Good team, great players, were never going to win but had some hope).  

What fans of basketball should hope for is that Cleveland 2016 is either Detroit 2005 (pesky, lose in 7) or Miami 2013 (win in 7 as an underdog).

I am still sticking with GState in 5.  But I now see a 49-51% chance that Cleveland can at least be a Toronto equivalent and win a couple at home.  

The Cavs' best chance to prevail is injury.  So Mozgov and Delly should play some - they are the players most likely to cause injury to the opponent.

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