Thursday, December 10, 2015

Trump Up 25% in Zogby Poll

Here is what I do not understand about all of the hand wringing regarding Trump: 

1) According to THIS:, 20% of households make less than $42,000 a year, 49% of households make between $42K and $126K, and that leaves 31% of U.S. households making over $126,000 a year....31% seems high to me, but I guess that is how I am reading this.  (If 31% is high, that makes my pro-Trump point even stronger).

2) If you look at 2012 exit polls, Obama gets about 60% of votes in the sub-$50K area, 46% in middle class and 44% above that.

(I should note that I have seen some exit polls broken out by state and in the northern states Obama gets like 70% of the poor and in the southern states Romney gets over 55% of the poor -- southern poor folks vote more GOP than do northern poor least in 2012).

4) So, assuming that poor or middle class GOP voters = .4X20% plus .54X49%  --

about 35% of the country is poor or middle class Romney voters and the other 12% of the country that voted for Romney is rich GOP.

5) That means that there are at least 3 times as many GOP voters who will NOT benefit directly from tax breaks for the wealthy as there are GOP voters who WILL benefit from tax breaks for the wealthy.  (Recall that Obama only repealed the tax cuts of GWB above $250K for singles and $400K for married filing jointly, so the number is probably 4-5-6 times more non-tax-voters, but I will use 3X since I have to assume that the wealthy vote more often than do the poor).

6)  You have to assume, then, that 75% of GOP voters are people who care more about the other GOP party planks -- guns and God (including anti-abortion here) and overall hatred of minorities and immigrants.

Why would ANY of these 75% of voters prefer a candidate like Jeb Bush who is kinda weak and mealy-mouthed and talks about how tax cuts will lead to 4% compounded annual growth?  Would they not be FAR more likely to vote for someone who screams about how he will kill every enemy of the state and their families?  Trump should have at least 3 voters to every one for Bush....and he does.

The only real crack in Trump' political wall is the second G - God.  He is a many times divorced northerner who is not a born-again evangelical.  That is why his closest pursuers are usually Cruz and Carson, both of whom want the country run by their interpretation of the Bible.

Look, you may not like Trump, but he has a very solid appeal to 75% of the GOP base.  Unless he is shown trucking illegal immigrants and terrorists into the country in the back of a car stolen from Ted Nugent, I don't see any reason why his poll numbers should decline.  He epitomizes what 35% of the country loves the most.

1 comment:

Al Swearengen said...

A timely Ted Nugent reference as I heard "Great White Buffalo" on my drive home yesterday.