If you compare his career numbers to Scottie Pippen's, the numbers are very close across the board: http://bkref.com/tiny/y1YRr So I really do not see any way the voters keep him out of the Hall, given his generally good play over a lengthy period of time and the Pippen comparison.
But I need to be consistent, so what are my HOF criteria? 1) a top 3 starter on a championship team; 2) a couple times first-team all-NBA; 3) top 10 in MVP balloting at least 2 times; 4) possessing some otherworldly skill that deserves recognition (10 times all-defense, 3 times Defensive POY, rebounding champ 4+ times, etc.); and/or 5) top 10 all-time in one particular positive stat of note.
He does have a title with the Mavs, but he wasn't one of their best 3 guys.
He was never 1st team all-NBA.
He was top 10 in MVP balloting only once.
He was never first team all-defense and never possessed any particular skill of note.
The way Marion gets in the Hall is he shows that he was close on all of these criteria, and he has some top 30 statistical accomplishments (total defensive rebounding, total steals, both in top 30 all-time).
Sadly, though, I cannot place him in my Hall of Fame. I just have to draw the line somewhere and he falls below the line. Is it really asking too much that a guy be thought of as a top 10 player twice? I really don't think so. I mean, someone like Paul Pierce has never been first team all-NBA, but he was a top 3 guy on the Celtics AND he will finish his career in the top 8 in made free throws. Ray Allen - Celtics and #1 in three points and top 10 in FT%..
Look at a guy like Tracy McGrady - two times first team all-NBA, top 10 in MVP voting 6 times. I just think that if you have some bright line rules that you will get a Hall of Fame that actually puts in the best players. Will there be guys who get left out who were very good players? Sure (Vince Carter doesn't qualify under my criteria). But if you never were a reason a team won a title, and you weren't able to say you were clearly a top 10 player in the league 2 times in your career, do you really deserve to get in? I say no.
Shawn Marion would not get my vote.