Monday, April 30, 2018

##10 and 9 -- Jerry West and Larry Bird

#10 - Jerry West


As we move along, we need to make tough decisions.  West is the logo for the league....literally.  There is a good reason for that.  West had 162 WS, He had a career WS/48 of .213, he had a playoff WS of 26.7 and a WS/48 of .203.  His teams (largely led by him) reached the NBA Finals 9 times.  While his record was 1-8, he had 7 seasons where he averaged 30+ points for an entire playoff season.


Every single one of these statistics places Jerry West over Larry Bird.  Every one.  He scored more total points than Bird, he had more total assists than Bird.  He had 10 first-team all-NBA's to Bird's 9.  In 2015, I rated him higher than Bird. 


OK, that said, why does Bird beat him this time around?  Well, Bird has 3 MVP's and 2 Finals MVPs to West's 0 and 1.  The guys on my Top 10 list rank 1-7th, 9th, 11th and 24th in MVP Award Shares.  West is 24th.  Rightly or wrongly, I have decided this year to give more credit to what the contemporary MVP voters said and how the player was perceived when he played.  While that certainly cannot be the sole criteria (Steve Nash and Steph Curry are down at the bottom of my list, for example) it is hard to ignore that while Jerry West was thought of 4X as a top 2 player and 8X as a top 5 player, Bird had a stretch where he went 2-2-2-1-1-1-3-2.  He was regarded as a top 3 player 8 times, the best player three times and one of the two best players 7 times. 


Bird had a higher peak.  It lasted less time, and West over 14 years was overall more productive than Bird over 13 years, but Bird's 8 year stretch is hard to ignore.  He is, by a little, a "better" player who had a "better" career.




#9 Larry Bird


I have done a LOT of thinking and writing regarding Larry Bird.  He was #13 last time around.  What is my big problem with Larry Bird?  This -- http://hoopramblings.blogspot.com/2017/12/larry-bird-is-overrated-as-playoff.html  Bird simply did not perform in the playoffs as he did in the regular season.  And he did not play that long, so his WS/48 (you would expect) should be WAY higher because he did not have the declining years that, say, Kareem and LeBron have had.  But really, out of 9 big playoff seasons, Bird had two great seasons, 1 very good season, and 6 pretty mediocre seasons.  He was basically a little better than Karl Malone and a little worse than Kevin McHale on a per 48 basis. 


Of the top 50 playoff WS performers, Bird ranks 11th in WS, 37th in WS/48 and 35th in TS%. 


With those two significant marks against him, I left him at #13 last time.  But in 2018 I have chosen to focus more on success and achievements and a little less on advanced stats. This may be a weakness of mine in 2018, but it is what I have chosen to do.  So Bird moves up - you cannot dispute his 3 MVPs, his two Finals MVPs, his 9X all-NBAs and the fact that MVP voters went 2-2-2-1-1-1-3-2 for him during his 8 best years. 

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