The Timberwolves went 47-35 and squeaked by Denver in Game 82 to win the #8 seed in the West. They were immediately whacked by Houston 4-1 in the first round. The team played its first playoff games (and got its first playoff win) without Kevin Garnett, ending a 14-year no playoffs drought.
The good:
1) KAT was #2 in the NBA in Win Shares, he played all 82 games. He made the all-star team and may make one of the top 3 all-NBA teams.
2) Jimmy Butler brought his 14 Win Shares to Minnesota, and, despite a slow start where he was trying to be a facilitator, he had an excellent season, marred only by a knee injury over the last 20 games of the year. Butler was named to the all-star team and has an outside shot at 3rd team all-NBA.
3) Taj Gibson shocked me (and I presume pretty much everyone) by having his best overall season ever as a pro. Despite being 32 years old, Taj had career bests in FG% (by 5%), FT%, steals, minutes played, VORP, total WS, True Shooting %,, etc. And he provided veteran leadership, post scoring, and toughness.
4) Jeff Teague, Tyus Jones and Nemanja Bjelica each had up and down years, but more up than down as they all contributed good play and had a WS/48 around .100 for each guy. If you have two big hitters like KAT and Butler and can supplement with .100 guys, that is a very good thing.
The Bad:
5) Gorgui Dieng lost minutes to Taj, and had many stretches where he was downright awful. While overall his Advanced Stats fit into the Tyus-Teague-Bjeli group, Gorgui carries a $60M price tage for this year and the next 3. Tyus and Bjeli make next to nothing. You have to putplay those guys to justify your monster salary.
6) Jamal Crawford had a regular season ORtg-DRtg of 104-116, and in the playoffs went to a slightly "better" 110-117. He presented the Wolves with a high-volume, low-efficiency player, which they really had no need for since they already had......
7) Andrew Wiggins. ORtg 101, DRtg 113 (Net Rating negative 12, the same as Crawford). He placed 1st on the team in minutes played but yet was 8th on the team in Win Shares. 8th. Tyus Jones had 75% more Win Shares than Wiggy and played at a per minute efficiency equal to 350% of Wiggy. Tyus did not play 1/2 of Wiggy's minutes.
Wiggins posted the following lows or almost lows for his career (he has played 4 years):
FG% - next to worst by .001
Assists (tie)
PPG - next to worst
Offensive rating - worst
PER - worst
OWS - worst by a factor of 4X
WS - tied for worst
WS/48 - tied for worst
Offensive Box Plus-Minus - worst by a factor of 2.
VORP - second worst.
Wiggins became the second Wolf veteran (4th year or later) to ever play 2,800+ minutes and yet record 2.5 or fewer Win Shares (2.1). Chuck Person in 1992-93 played nearly 3,000 minutes for the Wolves and had 0.0 Win Shares. So, Wiggy at least was not the worst ever Wolf. He is due $150M over the next 5 years, seems high for a guy who is basically playing at the level of Fred Carter.
8) Signing Derrick Rose - Why? You have a team that is struggling to make the playoffs, you have a roster that could really use all of the following: 1) huge big guy, 2) three point spot up shooter; 3) defensive stopper. You sign a gunning point guard who basically goes one-on-one every possession and never runs the offense. Laying to one side his off the court antics (all of which are awful), this is a very bad addition. Including those antics, this is an unforgiveable decision.
The Ugly
9) Thibodeau did basically as bad of a job coaching the Timberwolves as could possibly be done.
Some example:
-- The NBA game has moved to a 3 pointer game, yet the Wolves shoot almost no threes and are terrible at defending the three. The Wolves do not design their offense to get threes or design their defense to stop threes. It is almost a willful negligence by Thibs, as he states at times, "I know we have to shoot more threes" yet designs nothing to get threes and signs guys like Derrick Rose who are non-shooters (7-30 on regular season threes).
-- Here are a few examples of player strengths and weaknesses that Thibs does not emphasize/protect.
KAT is not a big inside shotblocking center. He is slightly built and around 6'9.75" in bare feet. He is actually VERY good at switching onto smaller players on the perimeter and challenging their shots. So Thibs a) does not play KAT with a bigger center; b) plays a defense that encourages KAT to fall back into the paint; and c) leaves KAT as the sole defender at the rim. Thibs also does not trap or hedge hard on pick and roll situations, so players regularly charge hard into the lane where KAT is the last defender at the rim - again, a skill set he does not have.
KAT is also a Bird/Nowitzki level shooter. He is 6th on the club in shots per minute.
Tyus Jones - Tyus's two primary skills are that he never makes a mistake running the offense and he is an excellent team defender. Tyus playing with the starters had a ridiculously good Net Rating (over +10). So, you'd figure that Tyus would play 7-10 minutes with the starters every game and run the offense with the ball in his hands. You'd also figure that when he played with the bench he would run the offense. What did Thibs do? He played Tyus almost exclusively with the bench, had Tyus dribble to halfcourt, then hand the ball to Crawford, then go stand in the corner as Crawford dribbled 23 times and took a closely guarded two.
This decision basically negated the skill set of two players. Crawford at his current age is still an excellent open jump shooter. He is no longer excellent at getting open shots. He concentrates almost not at all on getting the ball to others. (He actually is a good passer, but every play is designed for him to try to shoot). What you end up with is Crawford being used sub-optimally and Tyus being used almost not at all. Tyus's season for a small guard was so unusual that it is one of only 11 such seasons in 35 years. http://bkref.com/tiny/vr6YN
So, KAT is Dirk Nowitzki and Thibs plays him as Pau Gasol. Tyus is basically Darren Collison and Thibs plays him in the role of Steve Kerr.
Crawford - Crawford is in his 18th year, he is a low-efficiency and high volume shooter who can actually help a team if you play him off the ball. So he can be JJ Redick. Instead, Thibs views him as James Harden or LeBron James.
Now, Wiggy? I don't know if you can really blame Thibs for how shitty Wiggy is. But he DID sign him to a max deal. So if you sign a guy to a max deal, you need to figure out how you can play him that emphasizes his few strengths and hides his weaknesses. Otherwise, don't sign him. So, how does Thibs play him? Well, he runs a little isolation for him, he sometimes runs him into the post, and.........that is about it. If you watched Wiggy through 35 games with Flip and at Kansas and with the Canadian National Team, you quickly learn this - if you let him sit and do nothing, he will sit and do nothing. Wiggy makes Nick Batum's activity level look like Corey Brewer's or a playoff LeBron James's.
If you are going to have Wiggy as a highly paid player (which is an effing disaster, but let's pretend you weren't involved in setting the fire and are just cleaning up the ashes) you need to involve him in running out and cutting, and getting screens set for him and driving to the hoop wildly. You have to tell him that if he keeps shooting awful 2s he will be benched. On D, he has to guard the best guy. Why? Cuz he has no concept of team defense, never helps, and will not help the helper or rebound. So, look at the top three or 4 small guys and have Wiggy guard the one most likely to run dribble isolation.
Thibs, remarkably, has Wiggy stand off the ball. If you are going to do that, I would literally be a better player for you than Wiggy. I can hit an open three. I will run in and see if I can get a rebound. I will sprint back on defense. Wiggy will do NONE of those. Do you know how hard it is to be a young 6'8" player who plays 2,600 minutes a year and cannot get either 3 assists or 5 rebounds a game? It is REALLY REALLY hard. http://bkref.com/tiny/zb2jS yet Wiggy does it EVERY SINGLE YEAR!!!
So - if you as President of Basketball Operations have decided that you are going to ruin the franchise by signing the guy, you have to force feed him the ball. You have no choice. Instead, Thibs treats Wiggy like he is Chris Bosh (he is going to get rebounds, make open shots when he gets them, make the most of his few opportunities). Wiggy AT BEST is Demar DeRozan or Carmelo Anthony. He needs 20+ shots a game to provide you with any benefit.
Jeff Teague -- wants to play 28-30 MPG, wants to play some off the ball with Tyus (note a common theme that all Wolves want to play with Tyus as the primary distributor). How do I know? That is what Teague says to the press. Yet Teague (a guy who likes to run and who makes VEEEEEEERY slow decisions in the half court and who is terrible at feeding the post) is used by Thibs to feed the post and to get out of the way when Jimmy Butler handles the ball.
Jimmy Butler - even though he likes to (and gets to) play hero ball in the 4th, what Butler really needs is a coach who recognizes when to rest him (like up or down 20 in the 4th) and who recognizes when an opponent is just lighting up Jimmy defensively. There are a lot of guys who Jimmy can guard (Westbrook for one, LeBron for another). But he struggles with some other guys (Dion Waiters comes to mind). Get him OFF those guys and let Wiggy guard them. Thibs refuses to recognize that some nights Jimmy does not have it on D.
Nemanja Bjelica - should get 6 three attempts per game. Thibs never plays him.
Cole Aldrich - Never plays. Look, I am not saying he is a first-team all-NBA candidate, but you signed him to 3 years and $22M, he is an adequate backup center who can go use 4-5 fouls a game on monsters like Embiid and Whiteside and maybe give KAT a 10-12 minute respite. Play him.
So - the "Ugly" with the Wolves is the coaching situation. They play an outdated style of ball, are (for no good reason) one of the worst defensive teams in the league, and their coach seems content to have that continue.
Thibs also seems to believe that HE is never responsible for any adjustments. His constant reply to the media about losses? "Guys just have to play harder."
Your JOB as a coach is to HELP your team win games. To say that you will not try something new means you will not try to effectively do your job. That is a really shocking admission by any employee. As I have said, if someone told me that when I wear green tights my team wins by 10-12 points every game, I'd be wearing green tights. Tyus with the starters this year was +10-12 on the average. To REFUSE to keep going for a little bit each game is insane. Playing Wiggy 2900 minutes (basically the same as LeBron James) when his WS/48 is .030 is inexcusable. It just is. I am sorry - the lesson there is that no matter how badly you suck, I am going to play you. What incentive does that give Wiggy to play better? None. Similarly, Marcus Georges-Hunt actually had some good moments; banished to the pine.
In short, Thibs took a team that added a 14 WS player and a 7 WS player, gave up basically nothing in return and he improved by 16 wins. Congrats. That is about as badly as you could possibly have done.
Am I, as a 29 year Timberwolves Season Ticket Holder, happy they won 47 games and made the playoffs? Of course. The #1 reason being that the streak had rendered the club a laughingstock. When you are mentioned in the same breath as the Cleveland Browns, it is bad. You need to get off that list. But - had we been able to 1) emphasize our strengths; 2) de-emphasize our weaknesses; 3) take away the opponent's 3 point shooting; and 4) adjust for our opponents, it could have been so much better.
I fear that the attitude in the organization will be "let's allow Thibs to be Thibs" and not ask for a more reasonable approach to the game of basketball. Already we hear rumors that Derrick Rose could be signed to a 4 year $25M contract. Why!?!?!? His last 3-5 seasons should tell you that he is not a good player and cannot be a good player on a winning team. Will 5 playoff games where he played off guard and shot 70% from 3 overcome the fact that he is a career 25% three point shooter? Is he going to be a bench off guard? Really?
So - anyway, we made the playoffs and I should be very happy. I really am not.
I used to drive home to Upstate NY from North Carolina and from Minnesota. It would be 15-20 hours of driving. Sometimes I drove straight through. I knew that when I got there, I would be glad that I had arrived, but as I got older I realized that what I had just done (while achieving my goal) would ruin me for 24-36 hours. That is what Thibs just accomplished. He got a bucket of chicken and a 24 pack of Jolt Cola and then drove the Wolves to the playoffs at 85 miles per hour on icy roads. The next 24-36 months might be a little tough on the organization and on us fans.
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