We now enter a stretch in this analysis where we have to discuss what we are trying to do. Are we trying to evaluate who is the “best” player or who has the best career? If you look at someone like George Mikan or Bill Walton or Bob McAdoo or Spencer Haywood or the ABA Dr. J - a good argument could be made that at one point in time at their very best they were way, way better than guys on the list above them. Thinking in reverse, I took Reggie Miller off my list despite his 174 WS (more than Kobe) and Artis Gilmore (189 WS) is off. Paul Pierce has more Win Shares than Larry Bird - I never even gave Pierce serious consideration.
So, why is this inquiry important now? Well, we have 13 guys left. Some were great winners, but some were not. Some played together and you need to evaluate who was the key to that situation and for how long. Kareem played forever, as did Karl Malone - they have enormous raw stats and Win Shares. Larry Bird played effectively 1979-1988. Magic’s career was derailed tragically or he may have played 20 years. So, it is at this point in my 2018 analysis that I will say that we will evaluate regular season success, MVPs, playoff success, playoff performance, advanced stats, strengths as an all-around player and my general feelings regarding players I saw play (which at this point is all but Russell, but I did not see young Oscar, West or Wilt). So, here we go.
13 - Karl Malone. I am dropping Karl down the list from his 2015 placement. Why? He still is way at the top of the list in scoring, rebounding, Win Shares, and all-NBA first teams (11). Karl Malone has more seasons where he had 15 Win Shares than everyone except Wilt, Kareem and Michael. Incredibly durable and consistently great. 2 MVP’s. 2 Finals appearances. These are all the things that had him rated so highly last time. But two things stick out “upon further review” of Karl Malone 1) his playoff WS/48 is pretty mediocre. At .140 he is far, far worse than the all-time greats of the game. And, second, if you review Karl Malone’s all-time MVP balloting, this is not a guy who ever had a huge run of 5 or 6 consecutive top 3 finishes. He got his two MVPs, in part, because people were tired of voting for Jordan. Generally, 1984-87 Bird was the best player in the regular season, followed by Magic thereafter. Then it was Jordan followed by Barkley or Hakeem or Robinson. Karl was a great player, but never a guy you’d say “geez, good argument for greatest player ever”. He is #13.
12. Kobe Bryant - Kobe moves up substantially from my 2015 list. Why? Well, he has 11x first-team all-NBA, he has 5 titles, he has 2 Finals MVPs (Albeit one where he shot 6-24 in Game 7 and weirdly outpolled Pau Gasol for the award anyway). So, much like my decision to include Bob Cousy, there reaches a point where a player’s accomplishments outweigh his advanced stats. That said, however, Kobe was a very high volume and not super high efficiency player. His regular season and playoff WS and WS/48 do not justify a very high ranking. His playoff advanced stats and regular season advanced stats are far closer to Dwayne Wade and Karl Malone than they are to Michael Jordan or LeBron James. It isn’t a close comparison. Penny Hardaway was a great player with a young Shaq. When Pippen played with Shaq in an all-star game he said “it is so easy because he creates so much space”. The Finals MVP in the Lakers’ first 3 titles was Shaq. Kobe in those series was playing against some pretty favorable matchups on offense (Reggie Miller, Eric Snow, Kerry Kittles). Finally, Kobe found great success with Phil Jackson and virtually no success with any other coach. Kobe had some pretty forgettable seasons when Phil was not around. So, congrats to Kobe, if this were a real roster, he’d have made the team (top 12). I just have to keep him at #12.
11. The remaining 11 guys are Abdul-Jabbar, Bird, Chamberlain, Duncan, James, Johnson, Jordan, O’Neal, Robertson, Russell and West. This pick is hard, because to me (spoiler alert, but since most of these entries are getting 15-50 hits, I don’t think I am revealing the secrets of the universe here) you really have to select between Oscar, Jerry, and Larry for this spot. Oscar has the most Win Shares and has the word of mouth as best player (the old guys frigging LOVE Oscar - they refer to Magic as a pale imitation of Oscar). Bird has the most titles and the most MVPs but he played for the shortest time and had only 145 WS. West is the best playoff performer of the bunch. Although his team always lost in the Finals (until 1972) West always got them there and he put up simply heroic playoff scoring efforts, even winning the Finals MVP on a losing team. So??? What to do?
Well, my train of thought in 2018 is to be kinder to the guys with great accomplishments and to try not to subtract so much for advanced stats if I can help it. So I will spare Bird (though it pains me to do so because if you compare his career and Dirk’s career or Pettit’s career, I think you could argue the point for any of the three). And, you just simply cannot look at Jerry West’s playoff resume and drop him. Ergo, #11 - Oscar Robertson. As stated above, the people who watched young Oscar play revere him. He is 9x first-team all-NBA. Despite being a prolific scorer, Oscar also has 1600 more career assists than LeBron James. So, LeBron will have to play into his 18th season, and play well, to catch Oscar. Oscar’s deficiency? Team success. He had one title, later in his career with Kareem. His playoff numbers are good, but “Kobe good,” and not “Michael or Magic good.” In light of the many years where Oscar’s teams either missed the playoffs or got to the playoffs and his was merely very good, I have to rank Bird and West higher. This may be a time when “body of work” doesn’t truly reflect the greatness of the player. That said, I am at the point where players are being judged against people like Magic Johnson (3 MVPs, 5 titles) and Kareem (6 MVPs 5 titles) and Michael Jordan (5 MVPs 6 titles killer advanced stats). We got drop some people off. And for whatever reason, for all the great things Oscar did, he wasn’t regularly beating West and Wilt and Russell from 1960-69. Oscar is #11.
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