Monday, April 23, 2018

Searching for Guys 28-36 Is an Incredibly Tough Job, But It is Now Done.

I need to take this list of 19 guys and get down to 9 (drop 10 guys).  Then we will have our 36 guys.


List
Ray Allen -  145 Win Shares, 0 First Team All-NBA, 0 MVPs, 2 titles

Bob Cousy - 91 WS, 10X, 1 MVP, 6 titles

Steph Curry - 93 WS, 2X, 2 MVP, 2 titles

Clyde Drexler - 136 WS, 1X, 0 MVP, 1 title


Patrick Ewing - 126 WS, 1X, 0, 0

Walt Frazier - 136 WS, 1X, 0,  2 titles

George Gervin - 116 WS, 5X, 0 MVP, 0 titles

Artis Gilmore -- 190 WS, 4X, 1 MVP, 1 title

James Harden - 107 WS, 4X, 1 MVP (I will assume), 0 titles

John Havlicek - 132 WS, 4X, 0 MVP, 8 titles

Elvin Hayes - 121 WS, 3X, 0 MVP, 1 title

Neil Johnston - 92 WS, 4X, 0 MVP, 1 title

Jason Kidd - 139 WS, 5X, 0 MVP, 1 title

Reggie Miller - 174 WS, 0, 0, 0

Steve Nash - 130 WS, 3X, 2 MVP, 0 titles

Gary Payton -- 146 WS, 2X, 0 MVP, 1 title

Scottie Pippen - 125 WS, 3X, 0 MVP, 6 titles

Dolph Schayes - 142 WS, 6X, 0 MVP, 1 title

Dwayne Wade - 118 WS, 2X, 0 MVP, 3 titles.


So, it is easier to try to "drop" guys than it is to put guys in, so.....OUT:

-- Neil Johnston is #5 all-time in WS/48.  He led the league in WS for 5 straight years, won a title.  Probably is the #1 most underrated player in NBA history.  Nevertheless, his career was very short; he received virtually no MVP consideration from his peers, and he's next to last on the list in WS.  Love you Neil, but I cannot keep you.

-- Elvin Hayes - while he played forever, he is in the lower 1/3 of the list in WS, really only had three super great years and I cannot see keeping him.  Sorry, Elvin, you are #2 out.

-- Ray Allen made my list of 36 in 2015, but I just cannot see retaining him for 2018.  I was wrong.  While a great player who played a long time, he simply does not stack up across the board in all-NBA or MVP consideration and he never led a team to a title (3rd best guy on each title team).

-- Reggie Miller also must go from my 2015 list.  Again, I was wrong.  As a Win Shares guy, it PAINS me to do this, since he has more WS than Kobe.  But there just isn't enough there to keep him on the list while other fall off.

-- Artis Gilmore - you cannot give ABA guys full credit for their ABA stats.  I think that is particularly true when the ABA stats and the all-league honors do not carry over to the NBA.  Love, love, love Gilmore, extremely underrated, but I just cannot pull the trigger when 75% of his success was in the ABA.

That leaves us with 14 guys for 9 spots.  Now I am going to put 5 guys "IN":

I think you need to put in the guys who were key contributors to 3+ titles.  I am sorry, but none of these guys is Robert Horry or Frank Ramsey who were sort of along for the ride.  They were major, major players on title teams.  So, I am keeping guys 28-31 as 

Bob Cousy, John Havlicek, Scottie Pippen, and Dwyane Wade and.........
as guy #32, I am going to keep Steve Nash.  He has 2 MVPs and a 2nd place finish.  He has 23 more WS than Harden and 37 more than Curry.  I do not believe that you can elevate the other guys on the list over him.  I recognize that there are arguments to the contrary, but I want to seriously consider Harden and Curry, and I cannot do so without adding in Nash first.

 
So, we have 32 guys in.  There are 4 spots left to grab by:

Steph Curry - 93 WS, 2X, 2 MVP, 2 titles

Clyde Drexler - 136 WS, 1X, 0 MVP, 1 title


Patrick Ewing - 126 WS, 1X, 0, 0

Walt Frazier - 136 WS, 1X, 0, 1 title

George Gervin - 116 WS, 5X, 0 MVP, 0 titles

James Harden - 107 WS, 4X, 1 MVP (I will assume), 0 titles

Jason Kidd - 139 WS, 5X, 0 MVP, 1 title

Gary Payton -- 146 WS, 2X, 0 MVP, 1 title

Dolph Schayes - 142 WS, 6X, 0 MVP, 1 title


DROPPING

I am going to drop another of my 2015 top 36 - Clyde Drexler.  Clyde was great, but his MVP award shares are .778, which is not great, and his best voting results are 22-5-12-6-2-10-14.  I just cannot put him in.

I am also going to drop Dolph Schayes -- while he was a great player, and had great Advanced Stats, he played 1,000 years ago and never was voted the best player in his league (5-4-2-6-8-8) and his MVP award shares are .730.

Jason Kidd stays off my list.  Kidd has poor advanced stats and only had 2 years where he was top 5 in MVP balloting.

I just cannot pull the trigger on George Gervin.  Iceman was a great player, great scorer, but his advanced stats are pretty mediocre and he had next to no playoff success. Certainly never a great defender, he basically became a one-end player as he got older.  

Walt Frazier is a tough one to leave off since he was so good in the playoffs.  His MVP award shares?  100th place.  Like Dolph Schayes, he was a great player and all-NBA, but people didn't really ever consider him the best guy.

So, the last 4 spots go to 

Steph Curry - 93 WS, 2X, 2 MVP, 2 titles  - the combination of 2 MVPs and two titles is just enough to overcome the very short career and only 2 first-team All-NBAs.  Golden State, led primarily by him, went to 3 Finals and won twice, winning 73 games the other year.  It is hard to keep him off.


Patrick Ewing - 126 WS, 1X, 0, 0 -- Ewing's 1 All-NBA award is misleading, as he was a top 5 MVP candidate 6 times.  So what that tells you is that Patrick was more a victim of who he played against (Hakeem, Robinson, Shaq) than were other players.

James Harden - 107 WS, 4X, 1 MVP (I will assume), 0 titles  -- you really cannot put Curry in and leave Harden off.  Harden's style of play and attitude I find personally distasteful, but he has a very good argument that he should have won 2 MVPs, maybe 3.  I do not see how you have a list with Curry on and Harden off unless you say Curry is 36 and Harden is 37.  And I am unwilling to do that.

Gary Payton -- 146 WS, 2X, 0 MVP, 1 title - Payton makes it on.  He led a team to the Finals, taking two games from Jordan.  He is 9X 1st-2nd-3rd team All-NBA and 9X First team all-defense.  He was considered a top 6 player in the league 6X (Kidd 2, Drexler 3).  I think of the glut of great guards right around the cusp of "in" or "out" he gets in. 

This exercise yields 9 names:

Bob Cousy
John Havlicek
Scottie Pippen
Dwyane Wade
Steve Nash
Steph Curry
Patrick Ewing
James Harden
Gary Payton





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