Tuesday, August 04, 2015

GOP Polling Data -- A Few of My Thoughts

PollDateTrump Bush Walker Huckabee Carson Cruz Rubio Paul Christie Kasich Perry Santorum Jindal Fiorina Graham Spread
RCP Average7/26 - 8/223.212.810. +10.4
FOX News7/30 - 8/226159676553312120Trump +11
Bloomberg7/30 - 8/221108754654422111Trump +11
CBS News7/29 - 8/2241310866643121200Trump +11
Monmouth7/30 - 8/2261211656444321121Trump +14
NBC/WSJ7/26 - 7/301914156109563331100Trump +4
Thanks to realclearpolitics.com for this data.
1) Trump -- I just saw an article in which the author said that Trump would fail because he has no position on the issues.  Here are your seven basic GOP positions:
-- lower taxes for the wealthy
-- say you are going to punish the poor economically
-- imprison blacks and deport Hispanics
-- remind old people that old white people should rule the world, while finding a way to cut Social Security and Medicare benefits.
-- kiss the ass of the religious right
-- try to get in a war with any country you can
-- oppose anything Barack Obama is for
Which of these 7 basic policy positions do you think Trump cannot state?  I mean, this isn't exactly rocket science.  "What would you do if elected?"  Cut taxes and repeal ObamaCare and go to war with Iran.     (Wild applause from crowd).
I have always secretly wanted to be a Republican candidate because it is SOOOOO easy.  You never do any thinking or analysis.  You receive your 7 talking points and pound them hard.
Trump will do fine in debates.  He gets 1/10 of the time for a 3 hour debate - even if there are no commercials, that is about 15 minutes (moderator questions take some time).
2) The Second Tier -- Bush and Walker -- these are the guys that the Rich Wing of the party wants.  Cut taxes and eff over the poor.  Pretend to be reasonable but, in reality, be as far to the right as we want you to be. 
3) The Inexplicable Middle -- Huckabee, Carson, Cruz, Paul -- this is roughly 25% of the vote!!!!  Huckabee wants a Biblical State, aka American Taliban.  Carson is flat out insane.  Cruz, according to party orthodoxy for the past 8 years, is constitutionally ineligible for the office (born outside U.S. to only 1 U.S. citizen, which were the facts they were TRYING to establish to DQ Obama!),  Paul believes in repeal of the Civil Rights Act and he also believes that we should NOT get in a war at the drop of a hat, thus disqualifying him as a GOP candidate.
4) The Facially Decent Candidate With no Business Winning -- Marco Rubio -- Rubio is good looking and has some chance of attracting Hispanic voters.  Sadly, now that he has abandoned his own pro-immigration legislation, Rubio's only real claim to fame is that he likes to drink water and he has a really good looking wife.  He is 44.  He has really never done much of anything.  He went to 3 schools to get through college.  He went to Miami Law School -- ranked somewhere around the 49th to 66th best U.S. law school.  The GOP feel Obama is an idiot; Obama went to Harvard - a top 3 law school.  Also, Rubio was born in 1971, at the time his parents were BOTH non-U.S. citizens!  He is what the GOP generally calls an "anchor baby" and is of the class of people the GOP would like to declare as non-citizens, even if a constitutional amendment was needed.
On the plus side, at least Rubio (unlike Rafael Cruz and Piyush Jindal) he uses his real first name and doesn't try to fool the public as if he were a customer service phone representative for Target Corporation. 
5) "I Can't Believe I Am This Far Down in the Polls"  -- Christie, Kasich, Perry, Jindal
Hey, look, I don't like ANY of these guys, but at least they have done SOMETHING in their political careers.  How they can be so far behind Tier 3 is evidence that the Poor Wing of the GOP is, in fact, bat-shit crazy.   Just so that this item doesn't get quoted as me being pro-these-four, I will note:
Christie -- corrupt, fat, hugged Obama
Kasich -- either doesn't believe that you should f over the poor or he is a lying sack of shit, take your pick.
Perry -- by writing this Blog item, I have established that I am smarter than Rick Perry; nice glasses, Poindexter.
Jindal - terrible speaker, terrible Governor, once performed an exorcism, goes by a fake name - I mean, imagine if Obama had declared himself  to be "Greg Obama" (Jindal selected "Bobby" from Bobby on "The Brady Bunch", so Obama could just as easily have gone with Greg).  I mean, WTF?
6)  The Dregs  -- Santorum, Fiorina, Graham
I cannot imagine any scenario under which any party would allow any of these people to be its Presidential nominee.  I mean, Santorum is no brighter than Perry and has an unbelievably unhealthy desire to interfere in everyone's sex life.  He opposes birth control!  I mean, that position is popular with Shawn Kemp, Travis Henry, Steve Garvey and.....who else?  The Duggars?
Fiorina was never a good executive.  She makes Trump look like he is as qualified to be President as FDR!   "I will run the country like I ran.....oh, well, BETTER than I ran....OK, WAAAAAY better than I ran my company...."
Graham -- He would gain points with me if he simply came out and said, "I love John McCain so much and I want to have sex with him, so any other man isn't good enough."  Take a page from Trump's book -- be honest, damn the consequences.  Who knows?  Maybe McCain will dump Cindy, sell a few houses and you live happily ever after?  Barring such a bold move, it is tough to say why he is even involved in the race.
7) Etc.  -- George Pataki and Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham is a polling juggernaut compared to these two failed governors (Pataki NY, Gilmore VA).    I don't know if they were bored or unemployed or were told to do some publicity to get a book deal or reality TV series, but they are also running.......making them, literally, "also rans".
 I cannot wait for Debate #1 in Cleveland on Thursday.

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